Post by Commissioner Erick on Oct 25, 2020 10:39:21 GMT -5
Texas Rangers (96-66) @ Detroit Tigers (101-61)
In some respects, the American League Wild Card matchup isn’t a huge surprise. The Texas Rangers have long been one of the PBA’s better franchises, and made the postseason in each of the league’s first five years. They’ve never had a losing season and retained many of the key players who have sparked them through their near decade of success. The Detroit Tigers, meanwhile, had improved three consecutive years and had a winning season in 2023. They made several big additions in Free Agency and appeared ready to take a step.
However, in other respects it’s a big shock to see these two teams here. The Rangers were a near-empire in twilight. Players had aged, contracts had gotten expensive, and the team seemed in decline just as the Seattle Mariners were ascending. The club was besieged with injuries in Spring Training, dealt with injuries in-season, and are not playing with a full roster now. Meanwhile, Detroit still had a lot to prove offensively as key free agents were lost, several prospects had down 2023s, and the team’s new First Baseman, Anthony Rizzo, was coming off a disappointing season. The team was in a cutthroat division behind two teams finishing mature rebuilds, and a yearly juggernaut.
The Texas Rangers are a team of proud veterans behind an acquired star that infused new life. The Detroit Tigers are a team on the rise, with a pair of free agent signings leading a group of talented youngsters. In some respects, the old meets the new an exciting Wild Card showdown.
Tigers Offense versus Rangers Pitching
Most teams would be done in an elimination game after losing the AL War leader, and a leader of that stat in two of the past three years. Texas can shake off that blow by turning to—a better pitcher?
The Rangers acquired Noah Syndergaard to lead them to the playoffs, and Thor may be the best pitcher in the league. He gets hurt a lot and he doesn’t have much stamina, so Syndergaard only worked 130 innings this year. Still, he produced 6.0 WAR and a 1.94 ERA over those 130 frames. Thor worked to a 0.82 WHIP and allowed only six home runs, which is sensational in this offensive environment. He essentially leads every single pitching stat all-time among candidates who have worked as many innings as him (891), with only some soft-tossing starters and assorted other aces out-performing him in walk rate. Inning for inning, he may be the best pitcher ever. He’s allowed only three home runs since May, so Detroit will have to beat him the hard way.
Thor is 0-3 in the postseason working a lifetime ago for the Mets. However, while his ERA is high, those Mets were not good defensive teams. Thor’s strikeout and walk rates are excellent, and his home run rate is only slightly elevated. In other big moments, like the WBC, he’s god-like. He’s allowed just one run on a single home run, to go with three walks in 35 career WBC innings. As a result, he’s 4-0 with a 0.26 ERA and 47 strikeouts lifetime. He gets up for big moments.
He hasn’t faced a playoff team in some time, but he has no-hit one, as he did when he tossed a no-no against Toronto in August. He allowed three runs in 9 innings across a pair of starts against Detroit. They may have to hope for something like a two-run, 5-inning outing from him today.
That’s not awful for Texas as they have the best bullpen in the league and are far better on the road than at home.
Texas had three All-Star relievers this year in Alex Claudio, Kyle Barraclough, and Brad Hand. Clauio has been one of the most unsung relievers in PBA history. Nearly impossible to elevate, he’s first all-time in playoff groundball rate and playoff home run rate. As a result, he’s first all-time in playoff ERA, WHIP, and any opponent triple slash. He’s thrown 84-miles-per-hour his entire career, leads the PBA in games played, and has been untouchable in his postseason career. He’s the most unheralded five-time All Star in baseball.
Barraclough gets the glory for the Rangers as he’s the one who works the ninth. Incredibly wild, Barraclough will allow baserunners, as he has a 14.6% walk rate. However, his 41.5% strikeout rate led the league among anyone who threw at least 50 innings. Hitters can’t square him up too well either, so he allowed just a .235 BABIP. Put it together and you have a guy who led the league in saves with 41, and put up 2.2 WAR as a reliever.
Finally, there’s Brad Hand who has dominated right-handed pitching this year. After a few tough years against opposite-handed arms, Hand has allowed just one homer and a .169 OBP to 142 lefties. It’s almost certainly a fluke, but Hand remains tough against left-handers as well. As a result, he’s 4-0 with a 1.63 ERA this year.
In the middle innings, Emilio Pagan had a strong season but carries extreme platoon splits and needs to be massaged through Detroit’s lefties. Hansel Robles has similar splits, but he’s captured some of the dominance against righties he had very early in his career. This will be his fifth postseason with his fourth team.
The long relievers for Texas are more questionable. Jordan Humphreys and Adonis Media have been remarkable in that each was solid as a starter for Texas, but haven’t stopped giving up home runs in the pen. Meanwhile, Josh Staumont continues to be extreme, walking a bunch and striking out a bunch more. The thing that separates him from someone like Barraclough is that Staumont also gives up a ton of home runs.
The pen at large has been better on the road than at home, but those long relievers may be key. Syndergaard is a stud and Texas’ bullpen in the late innings may be unimpeachable. Detroit has power from the left side though, and producing in the middle innings may be their best shot to put up runs.
That power is likely to come from Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo put up 42 home runs and 134 RBIs, in an excellent season. He’ll take on an outsized role in Detroit’s lineup today as the team loses patience with Matt Carpenter hurt, and power with Raj Anu sidelined. Detroit is still a potent, balanced offense with on-base ability at the top, all-around excellence in the two-hole, and power three through six. The Tigers used that classic formula and tuned it to produce the third best offense in the league.
Detroit also controls the plate. The Tigers are third in walks and strike out the third fewest times. Texas has a solid if unspectacular defense, but will be without both its starting and backup Center Fielders. Early speculation is Jason Heyward will start in Center Field, but it’s a position he’s aging out of playing well. Detroit’s ability to put the bat on the ball may result in an extra hit or two.
Detroit will also run, as the club was fourth in steals. Noah Syndergaard is generally terrible at holding runners, but he’s worked with Francisco Mejia at getting better as the year has gone on. Teams have only been successful in half their 10 attempts to steal against Thor since June. However, in two games against the Tigers, Jacob Pearson, Amari Maggette, and Brice Turang all stole successfully against Syndergaard. To make up for some of the injuries, they may need to manufacture some offense against Thor.
Platoon splits don’t matter too much for Detroit as the team had the same OPS from each side of the plate. What does hurt Detroit as that they have a pretty weak bottom of the lineup. Willi Castro is fine, but he hit .269 with 10 home runs this year. Garrett Stubbs had a bunch of doubles, but hit just .236 with four long balls. Marcos A. Gonzales is a glove-first player who has never produced in the majors.
Off the bench, Tyler Stephenson has good pop as a backup catcher, as does Ryon Healy as a backup bench bat. Ernesto Adames and Saul Sanchez are known more for their gloves and legs than their bats.
Detroit may need to get a bloop hit or two to fall in Center Field, steal a few bases, get Rizzo to get an extra base hit in the middle innings, and hang on late as a gameplan.
Rangers Offense versus Tigers Pitching
Texas had a comparatively poor offense, with only the 11th most runs scored and the ninth best OPS in the American League. However, the OPS would have ranked second in 2023. It’s certainly not a bad unit, and it can definitely produce.
Still, it has some trouble converting baserunners to runs, and is coming into the game short-handed. Raimfer Salinas continues to grow into a star, but is sidelined with a fractured wrist. Anthony Rendon brought extra juice to their Third Base spot, but is dealing with a strained PCL. The loss of those two significantly weakens the Rangers offense as they don’t have the type of player who can carry an offense. They have some guys who get on base pretty well, and some guys who slug pretty well, but nobody who really terrorizes an opposing pitcher.
Texas is also much better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. The team’s expected lineup would have four lefties, three righties, and two switch-hitters, but the switch hitters are both better from the right side, and two of the lefties are injury replacements. Only Rougned Odor and Ender Inciarte are lefties who can really damage an opponent, and neither is a consistent playoff performer.
Texas’ struggles against righties is great news for a Tigers team that is very right-handed today. Of Detroit’s seven relievers, the five best performers are right-handed and the two worst performers are left-handed. Plus, while Griffin Canning is right-handed, he also has a devastating changeup that eliminates platoon splits. He should be able to mitigate Inciarte, Odor, and the Rangers switch-hitters.
Canning, the one hit amidst of a ton of early draft 2017 misses, has been a very reliable arm for the Tigers. An All-Star in 2021 despite 15 losses for a dreadful club, Canning’s performance jumped in 2023 and jumped again this year. A changeup-based arm, Canning has learned how to use timing and deception to throw hitters off. His strikeout rate has dipped the last three seasons, but his home run and walk rate have improved, as has his ground ball mark. With a good defense around him, particularly up the middle and to the right side, he was able to produce the fourth best ERA in the AL despite a strikeout mark well below league-average. His BABIP against is only .268, showing how symbiotic his ability to induce weak contact is with Detroit’s strong defense.
Detroit’s bullpen is very good late. Caron Smith has a 2.65 ERA, solid even for a closer, while Jose Ruiz produced a 1.86 mark split between the Tigers and Braves. It’s a very reliable unit late in games.
The one weakness is that it skews heavily to the right-side. Their two lefties are both rookies and have the highest ERAs on the team. Hunter Barco was destroyed by righties, but also allowed a .793 OPS to same-side hitters. Juan Vasquez actually pitched far better to righties than lefties. Neither inspire much confidence either way.
Edubray Ramos has gotten better against lefties as his career as progressed, but he carries a nasty career platoon split. Phil Maton and Jose Ruiz are both primarily fastball-slider arms that also carry severe platoon splits. Against Texas, that means their dangerous trio of Carlos Correa, Paul Goldschmidt, and Kyle Lewis may be easily neutralized. While switch-hitters Ozzie Albies and Francisco Mejia are better against lefties, they aren’t slouches against righties. How Detroit’s bullpen fares against the top of the order of Albies, Mejia, and Odor will be huge.
In the ninth, Carson Smith has developed into a reliable closer despite not relying on traditional closer stuff. He’s a two-seamer/slider pitcher who induces weak contact and gets ground balls. Armed with a good defense behind him, that’s worked excellently for him. Smith also has had postseason success making into the World Series with the Blue Jays in 2022. Ramos has also been to the postseason before, giving up a bunch of home runs as a member of the Phillies and Diamondbacks, but otherwise pitching competently.
Texas is an excellent baserunning team at taking the extra base, though they don’t get many steals. Jacob Pearson was second in the AL in outfield assists, which should help control that. Dirty Tarin is known for a big arm in Right Field, which should also help.
Should Texas tun to the bench, it’s mostly a unit of glove-first, speed first backups that shouldn’t do much damage.
Season Series
Texas won the season series 4-2, sweeping in Detroit in late June before dropping two of three at home in early August. Detroit couldn’t score at home, producing four runs in three games. Syndergaard worked 5 innings, allowing one run in one contest, while Marcus Stroman teamed with Claudio and Barraclough in another win. Adonis Medina pitched a complete game shutout to complete the sweep. Francisco Mejia drove in five in the series.
Detroit’s offense opened up in Texas. In a rainy game that forced a late delay, an error by Rendon and a big hit by Healy against Claudio allowed Detroit to tie the first game of the series in the eighth, before Tyler Stephenson, who was on for an injured Rizzo, singled in the go-ahead run in the ninth. The Rangers held Ender Inciarte at third base on a two-out, ninth inning hit to Dirty Tarin, and Smith got Salinas with the bases full to save the win.
Texas won the middle game in extra innings as Hand, Valadez, Claudio, and Robles combined for 5.1 scoreless innings. Lewis hit a walk-off single off Jorge Guardado to give Detroit the win. In the finale, Detroit came back from 5-3 down with a six-run ninth off Barraclough and Pagan, with a Turang double tying the game, and a Pearson three-run home run giving Detroit an insurmountable lead.
Canning pitched well in his two starts despite not getting a win either time, working 10 innings, allowing only eight hits and three runs, striking out four.
Key Questions
Can Detroit put up runs in the fifth and sixth innings, when Syndergaard is either tired or pulled, and before Texas gets to their better relievers?
Will the Rangers Center Field defense be an issue with Heyward likely getting the start?
Will Texas’ left-handed hitters and switch-hitters produce against Detroit’s relief arms?
Prediction: With the team short-handed, it’s hard to see Detroit scoring much against Thor and the Rangers late-relievers, though Texas doesn’t have a deep enough lineup to really do damage against Canning. Late in the game, Mejia will double home Albies to provide a key insurance run for Texas as they win on the road. Rangers 3-2