Post by brewersgm on Oct 26, 2020 14:26:03 GMT -5
Washington Nationals (96-66) @ San Francisco Giants (105-57)
For the 4th time in 5 years the Washington Nationals will be making an appearance in the National League Wildcard game. They have faced the Rockies, the Marlins, the St. Louis Cardinals, and now they will face the San Francisco Giants. For a 3rd straight year the Nats fell short of winning the NL East, losing a deciding series in the closing week of the season to their arch rivals the Philadelphia Phillies. It is a familiar story for these Nats whose core of strong pitching, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout continues to place them among the PBA elite, but who can just not seem to get over the Phillies hump. The highlight of this Nationals season though wasn't Harper or Trout. SP Eric Pena turned in a performance for the ages. Pena led the NL in strikeouts last season with 233 and followed that up this year with... 393. More on Pena later, as we will see the story of this game will be a story of pitching.
The San Francisco Giants have the best record for an NL wildcard team in PBA history. They went 105-57, tied for the 2nd best record in the PBA. However like the Nats they just couldn't get past their rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers who went 114-48. The Giants closed out the season by being swept at home by the Dodgers. The Giants are making their first playoff appearance since 2018. Under GM Dave Twibell they have been slowly improving winning at least 83 games the past few seasons. This year they broke through. A series of shrewd trades including the acquisition of 3B Nick Gordon and DH/LF Blake Rutherford transformed the Giants lineup, finally giving them some offensive punch to match their pitching. Like the Nats they also got an all time performance from their ace. Shane Baz spent the year putting up a season just as valuable as Pena's by WAR even though he was overshadowed. Baz didn't put up nearly 400 strikeouts, he struck out only 295, but he still turned in an MVP caliber 8 WAR year.
Both Pena and Baz should be rested and ready to go and the Wild Card Game should be a pitching match-up for the ages.
Lineups:
Nationals:
This is probably the deepest Nationals lineup in a while. 6 regulars posted OPS+'s above 100 including new additions 2B Willy Adames and 3B Kyle Seager. These two veterans shored up an infield that had been a weakness of the Nationals in years past. A season removed from a 4 WAR year in Detroit the 36 year old Seager continued to defy Father Time and posted a 5 WAR year in DC. The Nationals had to outbid the Tigers to get him and he made their investment of 18 million worthwhile. Adames was acquired via trade early in the season from the Rays, and put up a solid 2 WAR year for the Nats. The stars in the Nats lineup, Victor Robles, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout also continued to perform. Robles still has his legs and Harper and Trout still have their muscles. Robles stole 40 bases and Harper and Trout combined for 103 homers.
The bottom of the Nats lineup was atrocious though which could be difference maker against a team that has pitching like San Francisco's. Will Myers, Daniel Flores and Luis Garcia all had an OPS+ below 90. It's a testament to Garcia's defense at shortstop that he was still able to provide positive WAR despite hitting for a 68 OPS+.
Giants:
The Giants lineup doesn't have the top end star power of the Nats but it may be more balanced. 6 regulars here also cleared a 100 OPS+ and 2 other players with significant playing time, C Calvin Greenfield and LF Jeison Rosario had marks of at least 98. The anchors of the Giants lineup were 3B Nick Gordon, DH/LF Blake Rutherford and LF Calvin Mitchell. Gordon came over from Miami and promptly won a batting title hitting into AT&T's vast outfield. Rutherford was acquired from the A's over the offseason. Making the trip across the Bay did not decrease his production as he had a 30/20 season with 33 homers and 23 steals. Unfortunately for the Giants his bat has gone cold lately and he enters the wild card game after hitting only 239/290/398 in September. Now he faces the tough task of getting his bat to wake up against Eric Pena. Calvin Mitchell has always had tools and potential and this year he rewarded the Giants patience by finally breaking out and leading all Giants bats in WAR. A year removed from slashing 237/296/401, he slashed 310/369/532.
Mitchell credits a meeting he had with Barry Bonds over the offseason for getting his swing right. He's adjusted his launch angle and now elevates the ball more instead of pounding it into the ground. Barry Bonds of course is the Nats hitting coach. He will face the monster he created in Mitchell. "I will always help young hitters who ask for it, and of course I'll always have a special spot in my heart for the Giants" said Barry. "No I'm not concerned that they are an NL rival,". Nats officials are aware of Barry's offseason training activities and say they don't have a problem with it. "This time though, it might come back to bite us," said one club official.
Defense:
Nationals: The Nats fielding has improved from years past but it still wasn't great. Their collective -4.2 ZR was 8th in the NL. Especially concerning is the mediocre outfield defense. Left and Right Field were negative areas and Robles defense in Center took a dip this year, although he's still a plus defender. In a spacious outfield like San Francisco's the Nats could struggle to cover ground. Another problem area was 2nd base, neither Willy Adames nor Kolten Wong were good defenders there this year. With a heavy ground baller like Pena and a lefty heavy San Francisco lineup this could be an issue. The Nats are going to hope that grounders get pulled towards Will Myers who as very good with the glove at 1B, and not towards the 2nd base hole.
Giants: The Giants were 6th in the league in ZR and host a much stronger defensive core than the Nats. Former Brewer Orlando Arcia can pick it at 2nd, Delvin Perez couldn't hit chocolate if he fell into a chocolate vat but he sure can play a major league shortstop. Jeison Rosario can play all over in the OF with plus defense at every position. Shane Baz will have a much stronger defense behind him which could be the edge the Giants need in what looks to like game where runs will be hard to come by.
Pitching:
There aren't two better starters in the National League (and arguably the majors), than Eric Pena and Shane Baz. Here is a look at their seasons by the numbers.
Shane Baz
0.7- Baz's HR/9, the lowest among qualified starters in the National League.
2.15- Baz's ERA, the lowest in the PBA.
2.45- Baz's FIP, the lowest in the PBA.
7- The number of months in which Baz led the NL in ERA. That's every month of the season.
7- The number of months in which Baz led the NL in HR/9. That's also every month of the season.
0.154- Opponents batting average against Baz.
295- The number of hitters Baz struck out. In any other season this would almost surely lead the PBA.
Eric Pena
12- The number of wins...and the number of losses that Pena had. Pitcher wins are a dumb statistic.
16.0- Pena's K/9, the highest in baseball by 2.5.
26- The number of starts in which Pena posted at least 10 strikeouts. He started 33 games.
79- The percent chance that Pena would strike out 10 batters in a start.
104- Pena's game score in his 8/31 start against the Marlins. In what was likely one of the greatest games ever pitched, Pena struck out 19 Marlins and did not allow a hit.
221.2- Pena's innings pitched. The highest in the National League
393- The number of strikeouts posted by Pena. This set an all time single season PBA record. Pena may just be the reincarnation of Old Hoss Radbourne.
Can anyone avoid striking out?
Can anyone get a hit?
Can anyone get on base?
Prediction: 1-0 Giants. In a great pitchers park, Pena and Baz go deep into the night but are taken out after each has posted a shutout start. A late home run from Calvin Mitchell is the difference in the bottom of the 8th inning. Barry Bonds is seen clapping for his protege drawing the ire of the Nats dugout. The Giants go on to face the Dodgers.