Post by Commissioner Erick on Oct 28, 2020 11:46:39 GMT -5
Kansas City Royals (105-57) vs Texas Rangers (96-66)
After a two-year hiatus, the Texas Rangers are back in the ALDS, a round they’ve never lost in. The Rangers have a bold assortment of pitching talent, offensive star power, and some good playoff history as they attempt to earn a trip to the ALCS for the fourth time.
They’ll take on the team with the American League’s best record, the Kansas City Royals, a young, balanced team that added a pair of stars to take the team to the next level.
While Kansas City is probably the better team, they must be careful in this matchup as they employ five former Tampa Bay Rays, a team Texas is 3-0 against in the ALDS. Kansas City is hoping that trivia doesn’t turn prophetic as they look to earn their first PBA postseason win.
Royals Offense versus Rangers Pitching
Kansas City’s lineup is very good at many different things. The club was third in OPS, fourth in home runs, fifth in average and OBP, and fifth in stolen bases. Kansas City hit the second most doubles in the league, was third in weighted stolen bases, and they took advantage of opportunities with the most sac flies. The Royals didn’t lead a category, but they were strong in every facet.
The defining trait of Kansas City’s offense is how titled it is to the left side. Only Gary Sanchez and Grant Burton hit from the right-side against righties. The Rangers don’t have a left-handed starter so Kansas City will have a significant platoon advantage for much of the game.
Kansas City employs its lineup in a classic fashion. J.P. Crawford has a .372 OBP on the leadoff spot, walks more than he whiffs, and has enough power to prevent pitchers from grooving heaters down the zone. Taylor Trammel hits behind him and has grown into a do-everything star who hit .290, got on base at a .357 clip, smashed 30 doubles, slugged 28 homers, and stole 34 bases in 41 attempts. Jim Sattler hit .303 with 44 doubles, 37 home runs, and 111 RBIs out of the three-hole, with Gary Sanchez cleaning up with 51 home runs from the four-spot.
Afterwards, Joshua Lowe and Joe Rizzo each hit 26 homers this year, and the bottom three hitters hit for an OPS between .771 and .778. Pavin Smith has the most power, Burton the best on-base percentage, and Lux hit for the most doubles of the trio.
Unlike some other teams, there isn’t a glove-only player in the lineup, and the patience is a boon against lesser teams.
Texas, however, is not a team with a lesser pitching staff, as it has a dynamic rotation and an excellent bullpen with several left-handed options.
Kansas City will face Noah Syndergaard at least once this round, and Thor is a uniquely dominant figure in how he can shut down even the most potent offenses. It took until the eighth inning for Detroit to scratch him in the Wild Card Game, as he shut down the third-best offense in the league for 7 innings. Syndergaard has allowed only three home runs since May, has walked just a single batter since August, and has allowed just three extra base hits before the seventh inning since August. It’ll be tough for Kansas City to really beat him, but their patience could allow them to wait him out until he tires and needs to be pulled. Syndergaard has a 0.95 ERA before the seventh inning since August ended.
The Royals can take solace that they tagged Thor for four runs in 4 innings back in May in perhaps Syndergaards worst outing of his season.
The rest of the Rangers rotation isn’t as thoroughly exceptional as Syndergaard, but all bring a lot to the table. Kyle Hendricks is the veteran command artist, Esteban Valdez is the phenom flamethrower, and Sonny Gray is the balanced pitcher.
Valadez may be the most important arm of the trio as he has the most upside, but also the most downside. He’s allowed two homers-per-nine as a starter, which is outrageous, though he’s kept his walks down at least. He’s also seen his strikeout rate diminish though, leading to a 4.63 ERA as a starter. The problem is that Valadez only has two elite pitches, as his changeup is still developing, giving him a lethal fastball/slider combination but little else. Against an admittedly tough schedule in Valadez’ return to the rotation in August, he was hit hard and lost six of seven decisions.
Hendricks, meanwhile, also entered the rotation in August, but that’s because he missed most of the season with a fractured elbow. It took him a while to shake off the rust, but closed the year strong with five of his final six healthy starts being quality ones. Its hard to get a snapshot of Hendricks based on his limited body of work this year, but when he’s going well, he’s terrific at hitting the corners, and throwing strikes. Amongst pitchers who have 1,000 career innings under their belt, only Rick Porcello has a lower walk rate. Against a team like Kansas City with good patience, a guy like Hendricks who limits walks and homers may have success.
Sonny Gray is the other member of the rotation and he’s been a perfectly fine, average starter for years. Strikeout rate around 20%, walk rate around 8.5%, low home run totals, he’s a model of consistency. Gray’s had a good OPS against lefties this year, but he’s done so by being more a fly ball pitcher. With Jason Heyward the new Center Fielder for Texas and Kansas City’s left-handed power, that’s a dangerous combination.
If Texas can get a lead, their bullpen of Alex Claudio and Brad Hand should be able to hold it late. Claudio remains the pitcher with the best ERA in playoff history, despite an Anthony Rizzo homer in the Wild Card game and Hand held lefties to a .196 average with two homers and two doubles.
Barraclough is more of a concern as he’s exceptionally wild, walking 37 hitters in 64.1 innings. He allowed six home runs as well, and Kansas City is disciplined enough to not strike out a ton despite Barraclough’s stuff.
Texas’ middle relievers are also concerning. Hansel Robles and Emilio Pagan carry extreme platoon splits and are vulnerable to lefties, while Adonis Media, Jordan Humphreys, and Josh Staumont give up a ton of home runs, plus Staumont is very wild.
Marino Campana is the right-hander off Kansas City’s bench who may be called upon to pinch hit, but he’s 0-10 lifetime against Claudio and Hand in his career.
Texas has a good defense, but will be vulnerable up the middle with Jason Heyward in Center Field and Carlos Correa at Shortstop.
Rangers Offense versus Royals Pitching
Texas’ skew of doing better against left-handers than right-handers may hurt them in this series as Kansas City has more right-handed options than left-handers. The Rangers had only the 11th best offense in the league this season and are playing short-handed with Anthony Rendon and Raimfer Salinas expected to miss the series.
Kansas City was a strong pitching squad, third in preventing runs. Like their offense, they had a balanced and strong run prevention unit, fourth in starters ERA, second in bullpen ERA, second in zone rating, and first in walk rate. They were only middle of the pack in strikeouts, but with the lack of walks and home runs, it’s a very successful strategy.
Chance Adams will get the ball to start after turning in his second straight 4.2 WAR season. Adams finished sixth in strikeout rate this year, maintaining the tremendous stuff he had as a reliever into his first full season as a starter. Adams throws four pitches, but his mid-90s fastball and sweeping slider are his best options, resulting in decent sized platoon splits, but an ability to control righties with ease.
Tyler Alexander is the lone lefty in the rotation, and he succeeds with terrific demand and by taking advantage of the Kansas City defense. After hitters produced a .264 BABIP against him last year, they put up a .260 BABIP this year, best in the league. He’s always carried strong walk rates as well, making him fantastic in WHIP. Alexander can also handle strong offenses as he no-hit Chicago earlier this season.
Brent Honeywell, in some ways, is a right-handed version of Alexander. He’s not a strikeout arm, but he’s generally suppressed BABIPS, and he doesn’t walk hitters. In the past he struck batters out more, but he compensated this year for a decline in stuff with a strong ground ball rate.
Kansas City hasn’t announced who might be their fourth starter. Both Dakota Hudson and Chad Kuhl keep the ball on the ground. Kuhl has worse stuff, but is even better at preventing home runs and getting grounders. Hudson is a little bit wilder, but can strike a hitter out.
Those righties tend to limit walks and home runs and force opponents to score runs the hard away. At least against left-handers, Texas may be cut out for that. They hit for way more power against lefties, but they got hits at the same rate against righties than they did against southpaws. That’s how the Rangers were able to knock off the Tigers in the Wild Card Game. Rougned Odor homered, yes, and he also doubled in another score, but the Rangers got their first three runs on three ground ball hits, a walk, and a sac fly. Odor had a three-hit game, Francisco Mejia had two hits, and Ozzie Albies singled twice. Those lefties may need to continue to bang out hits to beat Kansas City’s starters.
The Royals have a very good bullpen at the back end. While the team has options from both the left and right side, the right-handed versions will likely be the better choices. Addison Reed allowed just two home runs this year in 83.2 innings, and has a lights-out postseason record back from his days with the Mets. Alex Colome has never allowed an earned run in four postseasons and struck out 86 batters this year in 79.2 innings. Combined, the duo produced 5.6 WAR and can take over games. Both retire hitters from both sides of the plate, with Colome actually better against lefties than righties, making him ideal against Texas’ switch-hitters.
Tyler Lyons and Jose Torres are both excellent relievers who carry career OPS platoon splits of about 100 points in favor of same side hitters. Lyons would likely be the preferable option to Torres as Lyons also has a near spotless postseason record and yields fewer home runs to righties. Torres may want to be used against the bottom of Texas’ lineup wrapping around to the top, where more lefties lurk, and the righties have less home run power.
Doug Syversen is incredibly wild and has severe platoon splits as the sinker-slider arm has historically dominated righties and walked every lefty he’s ever faced. This may be the best matchup for him of all the postseason teams save for the Cubs, but he still seems like a very risky play. Chase Johnson is similar and has less upside, but is better with his control. Johnson may be the safer option.
Should Kansas City need to go to the pen early, Gabriel Ynoa has excellent command and is right-handed, while Austin Gomber’s walk rate spiked in his return to the pen, as did his home run numbers. Ynoa should be the preferred option, with Gomber only seeing mopup work.
Season Series
Kansas City thoroughly outplayed Texas, winning the season series 5-2. They swept three games at home in early May, then split four in Texas from late May into early June.
The Royals allowed just seven runs at home in their three-game sweep as Alexander, Adams, and James Kaprielian all pitched very well. Texas had just seven hits in each of the three games. Humphreys and Martin Perez made starts that series and got blown up, but likely won’t start this series.
In Texas, the Rangers took the first game of their four game set. After BABIPing Alexander to death, Kansas City came back from a four-run deficit with two in the sixth, one in the seventh and one in the ninth. They tied the game when they got an infield hit and four walks against Barraclough in the top of the ninth to knot the game at four. Gabriel Ynoa worked the bottom of the ninth for some reason and gave up a two-out double to Salinas and a clean single to Correa to take the loss. Kansas City tied the series the next day when they got four runs off Noah Syndergaard and got a great performance from Chance Adams to win 6-2.
Texas got the win in the third game when shoddy Royals defense led to four unearned runs. Sonny Gray worked 7 innings allowing just two runs, while Khalil Lee struck out three times in an 0-4 day.
Kansas City salvaged a split by taking a classic in the finale. Trailing 3-2 in the top of the ninth, Barraclough walked two of the first three hitters he faced. Claudio came on and allowed a hit to Crawford that Kyle Lewis bobbled allowing the runners to advance. After a strikeout and intentional walk, Joe Rizzo singled with two outs to plate the go-ahead run. Claudio got Lux to ground out to end the frame and then Texas went to work. With two outs and nobody on, the bottom of the order saved the day. Kevin Smith worked a walk and Gregory Guerrero singled before the lineup turned over and Ozzie Albies was plunked. Mejia slapped a single against Colome to plate Smith and tie the game at 4. Addison Reed came on and Carlos Correa hit a rocket to Second Base that Lux grabbed, sending it to extras. After Hand was great, Lux and Burton hit 12th inning homers off Kelvin Herrera to give the Royals a 6-4 lead. The Rangers got two in scoring position with one out against Jose Torres, but the lefty struck out Kyle Lewis and Luis Gonzalez to seal the win.
Key Questions:
Can Texas’ lefties come up with enough hits should the Royals limit walks and home runs?
Will Gray, Hendricks, or Valadez be strong enough to win two starts?
Do the Royals have the star power to have success against Syndergaard?
Prediction: At full strength this might be a different story, but Texas has too many rotation question marks and too many weak spots in their lineup. Kansas City is a bad matchup and should be able to wear them down. Royals in 5