Post by Commissioner Erick on Oct 28, 2020 11:56:34 GMT -5
Chicago Cubs (105-57) vs Philadelphia Phillies (101-61)
The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies have been six of the eight representatives of the last four NLCS'. They met last year in the championship series, where the Cubs took out the Phillies in 7 games on a Giancarlo Stanton ninth inning home runs. We are primed for a similarly great series in this year's matchup.
The Cubs are yet to miss the playoffs in the PBA. They return as a commanding 105-win division champion. They made it all the way to the World Series last year, and will have similar aspirations as they kick off their playoff run against the Phillies. Philadelphia returns to the playoffs for the fifth straight year. They ended up beating out the Nationals in the NL East in what was a back and forth race all year.
Phillies Offense versus Cubs Pitching
The Phillies lineup is full of sluggers. Not only are they a top 5 team in terms of batting average and on base percentage, but they also hit the second highest amount of home runs in the NL. Right fielder Seth Beer helped lead the way, as he hit 63 homers while driving in 135 runs. Although the Philadelphia lineup is full of lefties, they have done a great job hitting both righties and lefties. This is great news for them, as the Cubs top 3 starters are all left handed.
The Cubs have done a really good job preventing runs. They rank second best in the National League in runs against. They have done it with some really good really good arms pitching in front of solid defense. They have also done a good job preventing home runs. They will be put to the test big time against this slugging Philadelphia lineup.
Steven Matz has led the way for a Cubs rotation that ranks 5th in the NL with a 3.85 ERA. Kyle Wright, Marco Gonzales, and Sam Howard will most likely round out the playoff rotation for Chicago. Free agent signing Marco Gonzales is battling a sore elbow, but it looks like he will be a go in this series. He has just 146.1 innings, but has a 3.26 ERA. He has done a really good job against lefties, as they have posted just a .211/.258/.396 slash line against him.
Kyle Wright could be in trouble here. Although he has thrown 159 innings of 4.08 ERA ball, he has struggled a bit against lefties. He is giving up almost a full run more per 9 innings when facing lefties. The trouble is that six of the Phillies top nine hitters are lefties. Wright will most likely be the 4th starter, so it is unknown if he will be given the opportunity to start.
The Cubs bullpen had a pretty solid season. They ranked 6th in the NL with a 3.62 ERA. This is even more impressive considering they lost one of their top arms, Joe Caulder, halfway through the year. Zach Britton had another great campaign, as he racked up 36 saves and posted a 2.57 ERA.
Overall, something will have to give here. The Phillies are fully capable of scoring without the home run ball. Even with that said, if the Cubs are able to limit the home runs against like they have all year, they will be putting themselves in a great position. If manager Brandon Hillebrand decided to throw out Marco Gonzales at any point in this series, he will need to find a way to perform even with his health in question.
Cubs Offense versus Phillies Pitching
Chicago has a very balanced, but powerful offense. They rank fourth in the NL with 864 runs scored. They have hit 262 home runs, which ranks 5th in the NL. DH Dominic Smith hit .267 while smashing 43 home runs and driving in 124 runs.
They also run a lineup that features 2 switch hitters. Interestingly, Chicago is only 26-20 when facing a left handed starter. This is off considering they have actually done a decent job hitting lefties. The Cubs have absolutely mashed righties, which will be great news considering Philadelphia’s top two starters are right handed.
The Phillies gave up 681 runs, which ranks 7th in the NL. The rotation is highlighted by 29 year old righty Franklyn Kilome. He threw just over 190 innings, and has a 3.12 ERA. He has done a great job at limiting walks. Archie Bradley, Madison Bumgarner, and Elniery Garcia will most likely round out the rotation. This gives the Phillies good balance, as they will have 2 righties and 2 lefties in the rotation.
Archie Bradley went 10-1 with Philadelphia after being traded in season. Since the trade, he saw a spike in his strikeout rate, but also a rise in both his home run and walk rate. In his only two post season appearances, Bradley gave up 8 runs over 5.1 innings. Even with that said, Bradley has always done one thing well, and that’s to find a way to give his team a chance to win every time he takes the mound.
Madison Bumgarner’s performance is going to be a giant factor in deciding the playoff fate for Philadelphia. The two time Cy Young winner may be showing major signs of decline, but he is still coming off a solid year. Bumgarner has been really good for Philly in the playoffs, as he has thrown 34.2 innings of 2.60 ERA ball over 6 starts. He continues to show excellent control, and I think the veteran will show up in this series.
The bullpen is full of talented arms for the Phillies. They have high strikeout relievers all throughout. Edgar Garcia struck out 148 batters in just under 90 innings. Philadelphia should consider their bullpen a strength.
There is no one way to stop the Cubs lineup. The Phillies have a promising 1-2-3 punch of starters, but they will have their hands full in this series. The Philadelphia bullpen is capable of soaking up innings if needed.
Keys of the Series
Can Chicago’s pitching limit the home runs against this mashing Phillies lineup?
Is Marco Gonazales going to have success pitching through his injury?
Madison Bumgarner's performance? If he doesn’t show up, his team goes down with him.
Will someone be able to step up in Philadelphia’s pen when the game is on the line?
Prediction: At the end of the day, it’s a really tough call. With Marco Gonzales injured, I think the Phillies do have the pitching advantage in the series. I think it will come down to game 7. A healthy Marco Gonzales would have me on the other side, but I think the Phillies find a way to get the win in 7. Phillies in 7.
Questions
Matt-
What are you realistically hoping for out of your bullpen in this series? Lots of potential with high strikeout guys, but many ERA’s still over 3. Who can step up?
Both Bumgarner and Bradley look like great options. Who do you plan to give the ball to in game 2?
Brandon-
Is Marco Gonzales going to be given the ball in this series? If so, will he be on any sort of pitch/innings limit while he is injured?
Will your team be any more aggressive on the base paths now that we are in the postseason?
The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies have been six of the eight representatives of the last four NLCS'. They met last year in the championship series, where the Cubs took out the Phillies in 7 games on a Giancarlo Stanton ninth inning home runs. We are primed for a similarly great series in this year's matchup.
The Cubs are yet to miss the playoffs in the PBA. They return as a commanding 105-win division champion. They made it all the way to the World Series last year, and will have similar aspirations as they kick off their playoff run against the Phillies. Philadelphia returns to the playoffs for the fifth straight year. They ended up beating out the Nationals in the NL East in what was a back and forth race all year.
Phillies Offense versus Cubs Pitching
The Phillies lineup is full of sluggers. Not only are they a top 5 team in terms of batting average and on base percentage, but they also hit the second highest amount of home runs in the NL. Right fielder Seth Beer helped lead the way, as he hit 63 homers while driving in 135 runs. Although the Philadelphia lineup is full of lefties, they have done a great job hitting both righties and lefties. This is great news for them, as the Cubs top 3 starters are all left handed.
The Cubs have done a really good job preventing runs. They rank second best in the National League in runs against. They have done it with some really good really good arms pitching in front of solid defense. They have also done a good job preventing home runs. They will be put to the test big time against this slugging Philadelphia lineup.
Steven Matz has led the way for a Cubs rotation that ranks 5th in the NL with a 3.85 ERA. Kyle Wright, Marco Gonzales, and Sam Howard will most likely round out the playoff rotation for Chicago. Free agent signing Marco Gonzales is battling a sore elbow, but it looks like he will be a go in this series. He has just 146.1 innings, but has a 3.26 ERA. He has done a really good job against lefties, as they have posted just a .211/.258/.396 slash line against him.
Kyle Wright could be in trouble here. Although he has thrown 159 innings of 4.08 ERA ball, he has struggled a bit against lefties. He is giving up almost a full run more per 9 innings when facing lefties. The trouble is that six of the Phillies top nine hitters are lefties. Wright will most likely be the 4th starter, so it is unknown if he will be given the opportunity to start.
The Cubs bullpen had a pretty solid season. They ranked 6th in the NL with a 3.62 ERA. This is even more impressive considering they lost one of their top arms, Joe Caulder, halfway through the year. Zach Britton had another great campaign, as he racked up 36 saves and posted a 2.57 ERA.
Overall, something will have to give here. The Phillies are fully capable of scoring without the home run ball. Even with that said, if the Cubs are able to limit the home runs against like they have all year, they will be putting themselves in a great position. If manager Brandon Hillebrand decided to throw out Marco Gonzales at any point in this series, he will need to find a way to perform even with his health in question.
Cubs Offense versus Phillies Pitching
Chicago has a very balanced, but powerful offense. They rank fourth in the NL with 864 runs scored. They have hit 262 home runs, which ranks 5th in the NL. DH Dominic Smith hit .267 while smashing 43 home runs and driving in 124 runs.
They also run a lineup that features 2 switch hitters. Interestingly, Chicago is only 26-20 when facing a left handed starter. This is off considering they have actually done a decent job hitting lefties. The Cubs have absolutely mashed righties, which will be great news considering Philadelphia’s top two starters are right handed.
The Phillies gave up 681 runs, which ranks 7th in the NL. The rotation is highlighted by 29 year old righty Franklyn Kilome. He threw just over 190 innings, and has a 3.12 ERA. He has done a great job at limiting walks. Archie Bradley, Madison Bumgarner, and Elniery Garcia will most likely round out the rotation. This gives the Phillies good balance, as they will have 2 righties and 2 lefties in the rotation.
Archie Bradley went 10-1 with Philadelphia after being traded in season. Since the trade, he saw a spike in his strikeout rate, but also a rise in both his home run and walk rate. In his only two post season appearances, Bradley gave up 8 runs over 5.1 innings. Even with that said, Bradley has always done one thing well, and that’s to find a way to give his team a chance to win every time he takes the mound.
Madison Bumgarner’s performance is going to be a giant factor in deciding the playoff fate for Philadelphia. The two time Cy Young winner may be showing major signs of decline, but he is still coming off a solid year. Bumgarner has been really good for Philly in the playoffs, as he has thrown 34.2 innings of 2.60 ERA ball over 6 starts. He continues to show excellent control, and I think the veteran will show up in this series.
The bullpen is full of talented arms for the Phillies. They have high strikeout relievers all throughout. Edgar Garcia struck out 148 batters in just under 90 innings. Philadelphia should consider their bullpen a strength.
There is no one way to stop the Cubs lineup. The Phillies have a promising 1-2-3 punch of starters, but they will have their hands full in this series. The Philadelphia bullpen is capable of soaking up innings if needed.
Keys of the Series
Can Chicago’s pitching limit the home runs against this mashing Phillies lineup?
Is Marco Gonazales going to have success pitching through his injury?
Madison Bumgarner's performance? If he doesn’t show up, his team goes down with him.
Will someone be able to step up in Philadelphia’s pen when the game is on the line?
Prediction: At the end of the day, it’s a really tough call. With Marco Gonzales injured, I think the Phillies do have the pitching advantage in the series. I think it will come down to game 7. A healthy Marco Gonzales would have me on the other side, but I think the Phillies find a way to get the win in 7. Phillies in 7.
Questions
Matt-
What are you realistically hoping for out of your bullpen in this series? Lots of potential with high strikeout guys, but many ERA’s still over 3. Who can step up?
Both Bumgarner and Bradley look like great options. Who do you plan to give the ball to in game 2?
Brandon-
Is Marco Gonzales going to be given the ball in this series? If so, will he be on any sort of pitch/innings limit while he is injured?
Will your team be any more aggressive on the base paths now that we are in the postseason?
