2024 NLDS San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers

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San Francisco Giants (105-57) vs Los Angeles Dodgers (114-48)

Dodgers vs Giants. It's the greatest rivalry in baseball with a history that stretches back into the 19th century and across both coasts of the United States. Whereas in real life the two teams have sadly never met in the postseason, in the PBA this will be their 2nd meeting. They last played in 2018 when the Dodgers beat the Giants 4-1 in the NLDS. This year's meeting has the potential to be an all time classic as these are arguably the two best teams in the National League and have played competitive baseball against each other all year.  The teams finished 1st and 2nd in total team WAR in the NL.The Giants won the season series 10-9 but are coming off being swept at home in a 3 game series that clinched the NL West for the Dodgers. An unfortunate note for the start of the series is that each team's ace will be unavailable until game 3. Shane Baz of the Giants needs to rest coming off the Wild Card Game, and LA's Corey Kluber is dealing with a hamstring injury that will keep him out for the first two games of the series.

Giants lineup vs Dodger Pitching:

What really sets both of these lineups apart is that they don't strikeout. The Dodgers struck out the least of any NL team and the Giants the 2nd least. The Giants have a tough middle of the order in Calvin Mitchell, Josh Bell and Blake Rutherford. Each of these guys mashed 30 homers this year. The top of the Giants lineup was well equipped to make sure that men were on base for a lot of these at bats. Orlando Arcia and Nick Gordon are elite contact hitters and Gordon even took home the NL batting title. The Giants definitely prefer to face right handed-pitching as they won over 2/3 over their games against them this year. Interestingly though two of their best 3 hitters against lefties were lefties themselves, a rarity in OOTP. Blake Rutherford and Calvin Mitchell were able to put up OPS+'s of 117 and 123 respectively against same side pitching. Their ability to hit righties bodes well facing a Dodgers SP staff that is all right handed, save Eduardo Rodriguez. The Giants were able to get to Rodriguez though, tagging him for a 5.84 ERA across 3 starts (although FIP suggests he should have done better). The Dodgers have a pair of nice lefty relief arms in their bullpen between Mike Serrano and Logan Allen but each struggled against lefties this season posting reverse splits. It may come down to Clayton Kershaw to limit the Giants lefties. He might have to take on a bigger role than purely a lefty specialist for this series. The Dodgers starting pitching staff is top heavy and the loss of Corey Kluber until game 3 hurts. The Giants should be able to get plenty of looks against the Dodgers lesser right-handers which should play to their advantage. JB Bukauskas and Matt Trask had ERA's over 5.00 against the Giants this year. Those two will need to improve those numbers for LA to take the series.

Dodger lineup vs Giants Pitching:

Rich Schu won the world series last year with the Twins and came over to the Dodgers. He's helped transform an already stacked lineup into a powerhouse. The Dodgers were first in the NL in every major batting stat: runs scored, batting average, OBP, OPS, WAR, and wOBA. They were even the best base-running team. LA was only 3rd in home runs but that's probably got a lot to do with playing half of their games under Dodger Stadium's marine layer. The 4 anchors of the lineup were Alex Bregman (33 homers), Nomar Mazara (42 homers), Willie Calhoun (41 homers) and Seiya Suzuki (37 homers). Dodger legend Alex Bregman had a career year posting a 7.1 WAR season. As his bio says few players are more revered around the league than him.  He commands respect as he's a balanced hitter with elite bat to ball skills. These skills allowed him to slash 310/387/510. He strikes out only 15.3% of the time and walks over 10% of the time. He had great success against the Giants this year. Of his 38 doubles, 10 came in he 91 PA he had against San Francisco. Giants pitching just couldn't figure this guy out. The same isnt' true of the 3 other big bats. Mazara (.302), Calhoun (.309), and Suzuki (.326) were well below their overall OBP against Giants pitching. It's hard to blame them as the Giants had one of the best overall pitching staffs in the PBA. They had the lowest FIP in all of baseball at 3.61. However like the Dodgers staff, the Giants starters had some struggles with non-top of the rotation arms against the Dodgers.  RHP's Jeremiah Estrada and Justin Marsden make up the rest of the Giants formidable top 3 but had struggles against LA.

Also key is that the Giants are set to throw out an all RHP rotation. They may want to switch this up and give an arm like Taylor Lehman a shot. Lehman can start and relieve and although he might be the best LHP relief option for the Giants, he might also be one of their best starting options. The reason for this is that the Dodgers simply eviscerated righties this year with a 0.355 wOBA as a team. That just might be why they won over 70% of their games against right handed starters.

Defenses:

The Giants simply have the better defense. Right field was their only true hole. For the Dodgers, the defense as whole might be their only true hole. The Dodgers defense was only the 12th best in the NL and they didn't get a positive zone rating out of anyone on the IF. The real drag on their defense was 2B Luis Urias. The former Padres star can hit but his best defensive days are behind him. He had a -13 ZR for the season. The Giants should come in with the same game plan they had against the Nats, look to pull balls to the right side of the IF. The one area where the Giants absolutely don't want to hit the ball though is into CF. It's likely Jeren Kendall will flag it down. Despite only starting 92 games in centerfield he posted an 11 ZR at the position. He's a premier defender and the bright spot for the Dodgers D. For the Giants hitting the ball on the ground might oddly be the better choice than hitting it in the air. For the Dodgers, right field is really the only area they can look to exploit, but they definitely have the left handed bats to do so.


Key questions:

Whose mid rotation starters will perform better? This may very well be the key to the series. Neither has been great against the other team this season.

Can the Giants exploit the Dodgers defensive holes?

Will anyone on the Giants staff be able to slow down Alex Bregman?

Prediction: Giants in 7.

[brewersgm]

For more on the Dodger's here is an inside look from GM Arlo of the Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Dodger pitching staff is elite, though it may be without its Cy Young candidate for this series. Corey Kluber (18-6/3.33/214) suffered a hamstring strain on September 6th and was expected to miss 5 weeks. Current reports have him closer to recovery than that prediction would indicate. On the other hand, this staff can win without him (15-4 since Kluber's injury).

The expected starter for game 1 is lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (15-1/3.22/114 in 134.0 IP) who had a 0.88 WHIP in his 22 starts. He was sidelined from mid-June to late August with an oblique strain, but 5-0 since his return. Other starters will likely be Matt Trask (14-5/4.24/130 in 148.2 IP) and J. B. Bukauskas (13-6/3.40/149 in 153.1 IP), right handers who have some trouble keeping the ball in the park. If a 4th is needed and Kluber is not available, it would probably be lefty Logan Allen (8-6/4.13/165 in 154.2 IP) which would be a big opportunity for the Dodgers' opponent.

The big reason for the Dodgers' .700+ winning percentage and those lopsided win-loss stats of the starters are the guys who walk in from the Dodger bullpen whatever the inning of their arrival. The stats tell the story:



The 5 men on the chart gave up 28 home runs in 314.2 IP (0.80/9IP). The Dodgers averaged 5.65 runs per game this season, while these pitchers held Dodger opponents to only 3.82 runs per game, stingiest in all of baseball.

That run production by the Dodgers was tops in the NL this season. Like the pitching staff, though, the Dodger offense will be minus one of its best, LF Alex Verdigo (.310/40/103 with 40 doubles) due to a back injury suffered in mid-September from which he is expected to recover in mid-October. Also similar to its pitching staff, however, without Verdigo, the Dodger offense won its last 9 games by a total score of 58-24 for a per-game average of over 6.4 (vs. approx 2.7). It is a team that gets tougher when the going gets rougher. Especially considering that its gold glove, captain, regular catcher Austin Hedges (.239/29/76) went down with back spasms on August 27th and may not be back before this series is over.

Most teams would be devestated by the loss of 69 HRs to injury, but that leaves 207 HRs still in the lineup NOT COUNTING THE REPLACEMENTS IN LF AND C. This is a team that led its league in batting average (.270), on base percentage (.344) and slugging percentage (.488). You are not apt to throw them out stealing (109/140 for almost 78%) but you MIGHT strike some of them out (league least 1187) so you better try to throw them out at the plate because there isn't an easy way to beat them.

The Dodgers did make 89 errors this season and losing a gold glove catcher further weakens them, but the fielding at short, center field and third base remains strong and outfielders Luke Raley and Simon Muzziotti are also strong defenders. Infielders Fidel Mejia and Danny Diaz are on the bench to strengthen infield defense when appropriate. So, while you might get a break here or there, the Dodgers are not going to give any games away.

Hey, wheat the hell, four games of playoff revenue is pretty good, maybe you can even hope for five if the Dodgers decide to save a pitcher for the next series.


Questions for Ben Vincent:

1. Are you going to push Kluber's recovery or rely on the horses you have?

2. Who do you think you will face in the World Series?

3. Do you think soccer will ever become a major sport in America?

4. OK, seriously, let's see, uh, what kind of champagne do you have for the post championship celebration?