2024 ALDS Preview: Seattle vs. Toronto
Oct 28, 2020 16:56:00 GMT -5
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Post by Grubs - Philly on Oct 28, 2020 16:56:00 GMT -5
Seattle Mariners (100-62) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (90-72)
Toronto has owned the Mariners for the history of the PBA, sporting an all-time advantage of two wins for every Mariners victory. It was the same this year, as Toronto came out on top, 4-2, in a pair of August tilts. The Blue Jays took the first four and Seattle the last two.
Mike Leitao took a somewhat neglected but talented Blue Jays squad and guided it through a division that didn’t put up much of a fight, finding momentum in August and September, while Jeff Thomas’ Mariners battled a tough Texas team to the wire and stumbled hard after a dominant late spring and early summer.
On the mound, Seattle has had the better year, but finds themselves in October without ace Woo-seok Ko and bullpen stud Ryan Dull. They’ll carry 13 arms into the series, while Toronto looks to leverage bats and have three big guys eat up innings as the Jays roster just 11 pitchers, though all-world-name stud D’Mond LaFond might be available for the second half of the series if the Jays choose to make a last-minute move.
Both can hit, walloping close to 1,110 extra base hits between them, and they don’t seem to have radically different approaches, walking at roughly the same rates. The Jays don’t strike out much, at a sub-20 percent clip and almost 200 times fewer than the Mariners—putting Toronto third-lowest in the PBA for batting strikeouts. If you had to give one team the edge at the plate, the Blue Jays would have it, scoring about half a run more per game. Toronto isn’t without its own tough luck on the injury front, as CF Jahmai Jones is still two weeks away from a back injury.
On the basepaths, it’s not close. Or it shouldn’t be. While Seattle swiped 108 bags, Toronto stole 147 and had a league-high weighted stolen bases total of almost 10 runs above average. Not only do the Jays steal more often, they’re better at it. Translating that speed into runs will be vital...but Jones was a big part of that equation for the Jays, and he’ll be dearly missed.
In the field, the two are once again fairly evenly matched, with the edge going to Seattle. The Mariners are both more efficient in the field and have a higher zone rating. The big discrepancy comes at second base, where Seattle sported the PBA’s second-highest zone rating at the position thanks to Aramis Ademan, and Toronto’s pair of Logan Warmoth and Cavan Biggio had the second-worst.
Mariners bats and Blue Jays arms
Seattle can hit. Their infield is a scary place filled with bombs and WAR, as Francisco DeJesus had another MVP-caliber year. Ademan wasn’t just solid in the field, he had a fantastic year at the plate. New addition Lourdes Gurriel had a 4-WAR year and Isaac Paredes provided a clutch bat off the bench, sporting a .900+ OPS in high leverage at bats. The outfield has fallen off, with super rookie Jonathan Capellan having a down sophomore effort, thanks to a sizable BABIP drop. Seuly Matias provides some pop, but strikes out too much to be a consistently worrisome threat. While he hasn’t provided the same MVP numbers that he did last year, Tomoya Mori is still a dangerous stick at catcher, which is more than most teams can say.
Toronto’s pitching is built around three solid starters who will look to lock the series away quickly. Thomas Szapucki will likely start game one, followed by German Marquez and T.J. Zeuch. All three are having somewhat down years by their own standards – though mid-season acquisition Marquez was doing fine before being acquired and has stepped it up – but each has the poise to deliver in the postseason. The trio is best when they’re keeping men off base (which, duh), because they’re not big strikeout guys. They have three of Toronto’s top-four WHIPs, which likely means they’re pitching better than their ERAs show. Rookie Tristan Casas had a promising debut spoiled by a bad back and is a question mark at best if the Jays make the World Series.
The Blue Jays’ bullpen is underwhelming, but has kept it together enough for the Jays to land in the postseason. Lefty Loeck Roenhorst – who hails from, you guessed it, Aruba – has shouldered a huge burden all season, tossing 115 innings as a rookie with a strong splitter-changeup combo that mixes in a fastball that sits around 96. He’ll need a big series. The most intriguing piece is Michael Kopech, who transitioned to a setup roll after making 31 starts. In a half-dozen relief appearances in September, he showed promise. Eduardo Paredes is the closer, and after some worrisome mid-season stumbles, he’s locked it down in the home stretch, notching 9 saves in 11 September appearances.
The Mariners team .746 OPS against lefties isn’t awful, but it’s definitely worse than the .790 the squad put up versus right handed pitchers. While Zeuch is the nominal ace, the Jays will start Szapucki in game one, meaning he’ll likely be the guy for games four and seven. The Jays throw better against righties, meaning big series from Ademan, DeJesus and former MVP Tomoya Mori will be key to Seattle’s success.
Blue Jays bats and Mariners arms
Toronto doesn’t have a few guys with gaudy numbers, but you have to go nine guys down the list before finding someone who isn’t delivering above-average results. If outfielder Jahmai Jones were back, the lineup would be even deeper, top to bottom. It can get gaudy, as Vlad Jr. and his 50 homers will attest, and production has been solid down the stretch. We’ve seen a marked downturn in tasty Jake Burgers this year, especially against righties, and despite a strong June-August run, he’s one of the few guys who’s faltered down the stretch. Taylor Walls and Eric Drouet have done an excellent job of table setting all year, and Yusniel Diaz’s return to the majors in mid-May breathed life into both the team and the fans. There’s a lot to like with the Jays offense.
If bats are Toronto’s strength, arms are Seattle’s. Even without Ko, the team has four righty starters who can go deep into games and deliver quality innings. The rotation struggled mightily down the stretch, though, and game one starter Jeifry Nuñez posted a 10.70 ERA and along with Jhoan Duran and Tomoyuki Sugano, allowed seven home runs in September. In fact, the number four starter, Roniel Raudes, was the best of the bunch going into the postseason. What was a dominant back-end of the bullpen last year is missing Dunn, but Michael Lorenzen and Anyelo Luna are still more than capable of slamming the door. Luna was exceptional in September, and a relatively rare bright spot.
As a team, Toronto is harder on lefties and Seattle doesn’t have but two of them on its postseason squad. It’s not that the Jays mash against southpaws, they walk a lot. Productive at bats with men on have pushed Toronto to the PBA’s third-best OPS mark against lefties. There’s not a huge split here, as the Jays put up a .799 OPS versus right handed pitching. The Mariners do better against righties, so if switch hitters Kole Enright and Taylor Walls can produce from the left side, Toronto might fare better.
Questions
For Mike Leitao
For Jeff Thomas
Prediction: The two teams are moving in opposite directions. Can key injuries change that momentum? It's tempting to say this will go seven games, but I'll be bold -- Jays in 5
Toronto has owned the Mariners for the history of the PBA, sporting an all-time advantage of two wins for every Mariners victory. It was the same this year, as Toronto came out on top, 4-2, in a pair of August tilts. The Blue Jays took the first four and Seattle the last two.
Mike Leitao took a somewhat neglected but talented Blue Jays squad and guided it through a division that didn’t put up much of a fight, finding momentum in August and September, while Jeff Thomas’ Mariners battled a tough Texas team to the wire and stumbled hard after a dominant late spring and early summer.
On the mound, Seattle has had the better year, but finds themselves in October without ace Woo-seok Ko and bullpen stud Ryan Dull. They’ll carry 13 arms into the series, while Toronto looks to leverage bats and have three big guys eat up innings as the Jays roster just 11 pitchers, though all-world-name stud D’Mond LaFond might be available for the second half of the series if the Jays choose to make a last-minute move.
Both can hit, walloping close to 1,110 extra base hits between them, and they don’t seem to have radically different approaches, walking at roughly the same rates. The Jays don’t strike out much, at a sub-20 percent clip and almost 200 times fewer than the Mariners—putting Toronto third-lowest in the PBA for batting strikeouts. If you had to give one team the edge at the plate, the Blue Jays would have it, scoring about half a run more per game. Toronto isn’t without its own tough luck on the injury front, as CF Jahmai Jones is still two weeks away from a back injury.
On the basepaths, it’s not close. Or it shouldn’t be. While Seattle swiped 108 bags, Toronto stole 147 and had a league-high weighted stolen bases total of almost 10 runs above average. Not only do the Jays steal more often, they’re better at it. Translating that speed into runs will be vital...but Jones was a big part of that equation for the Jays, and he’ll be dearly missed.
In the field, the two are once again fairly evenly matched, with the edge going to Seattle. The Mariners are both more efficient in the field and have a higher zone rating. The big discrepancy comes at second base, where Seattle sported the PBA’s second-highest zone rating at the position thanks to Aramis Ademan, and Toronto’s pair of Logan Warmoth and Cavan Biggio had the second-worst.
Mariners bats and Blue Jays arms
Seattle can hit. Their infield is a scary place filled with bombs and WAR, as Francisco DeJesus had another MVP-caliber year. Ademan wasn’t just solid in the field, he had a fantastic year at the plate. New addition Lourdes Gurriel had a 4-WAR year and Isaac Paredes provided a clutch bat off the bench, sporting a .900+ OPS in high leverage at bats. The outfield has fallen off, with super rookie Jonathan Capellan having a down sophomore effort, thanks to a sizable BABIP drop. Seuly Matias provides some pop, but strikes out too much to be a consistently worrisome threat. While he hasn’t provided the same MVP numbers that he did last year, Tomoya Mori is still a dangerous stick at catcher, which is more than most teams can say.
Toronto’s pitching is built around three solid starters who will look to lock the series away quickly. Thomas Szapucki will likely start game one, followed by German Marquez and T.J. Zeuch. All three are having somewhat down years by their own standards – though mid-season acquisition Marquez was doing fine before being acquired and has stepped it up – but each has the poise to deliver in the postseason. The trio is best when they’re keeping men off base (which, duh), because they’re not big strikeout guys. They have three of Toronto’s top-four WHIPs, which likely means they’re pitching better than their ERAs show. Rookie Tristan Casas had a promising debut spoiled by a bad back and is a question mark at best if the Jays make the World Series.
The Blue Jays’ bullpen is underwhelming, but has kept it together enough for the Jays to land in the postseason. Lefty Loeck Roenhorst – who hails from, you guessed it, Aruba – has shouldered a huge burden all season, tossing 115 innings as a rookie with a strong splitter-changeup combo that mixes in a fastball that sits around 96. He’ll need a big series. The most intriguing piece is Michael Kopech, who transitioned to a setup roll after making 31 starts. In a half-dozen relief appearances in September, he showed promise. Eduardo Paredes is the closer, and after some worrisome mid-season stumbles, he’s locked it down in the home stretch, notching 9 saves in 11 September appearances.
The Mariners team .746 OPS against lefties isn’t awful, but it’s definitely worse than the .790 the squad put up versus right handed pitchers. While Zeuch is the nominal ace, the Jays will start Szapucki in game one, meaning he’ll likely be the guy for games four and seven. The Jays throw better against righties, meaning big series from Ademan, DeJesus and former MVP Tomoya Mori will be key to Seattle’s success.
Blue Jays bats and Mariners arms
Toronto doesn’t have a few guys with gaudy numbers, but you have to go nine guys down the list before finding someone who isn’t delivering above-average results. If outfielder Jahmai Jones were back, the lineup would be even deeper, top to bottom. It can get gaudy, as Vlad Jr. and his 50 homers will attest, and production has been solid down the stretch. We’ve seen a marked downturn in tasty Jake Burgers this year, especially against righties, and despite a strong June-August run, he’s one of the few guys who’s faltered down the stretch. Taylor Walls and Eric Drouet have done an excellent job of table setting all year, and Yusniel Diaz’s return to the majors in mid-May breathed life into both the team and the fans. There’s a lot to like with the Jays offense.
If bats are Toronto’s strength, arms are Seattle’s. Even without Ko, the team has four righty starters who can go deep into games and deliver quality innings. The rotation struggled mightily down the stretch, though, and game one starter Jeifry Nuñez posted a 10.70 ERA and along with Jhoan Duran and Tomoyuki Sugano, allowed seven home runs in September. In fact, the number four starter, Roniel Raudes, was the best of the bunch going into the postseason. What was a dominant back-end of the bullpen last year is missing Dunn, but Michael Lorenzen and Anyelo Luna are still more than capable of slamming the door. Luna was exceptional in September, and a relatively rare bright spot.
As a team, Toronto is harder on lefties and Seattle doesn’t have but two of them on its postseason squad. It’s not that the Jays mash against southpaws, they walk a lot. Productive at bats with men on have pushed Toronto to the PBA’s third-best OPS mark against lefties. There’s not a huge split here, as the Jays put up a .799 OPS versus right handed pitching. The Mariners do better against righties, so if switch hitters Kole Enright and Taylor Walls can produce from the left side, Toronto might fare better.
Questions
For Mike Leitao
- You’re rolling the dice on batters, who are typically harder to work into the lineup. What’s your plan for guys like Beracierta, Grenier and Connor Scott, who hasn’t swung a bat in the majors since 2022?
- How are you getting around the Jones injury?
For Jeff Thomas
- The Jays seem to set up as a contact team who swipe the smart bag and bring guys around to score. How do you plan to deploy your pen as we get into the later innings and Toronto finds its way on base?
- Ike Paredes has been really impressive in clutch situations and has held his own during the last half of the season. How’d you decide on slotting him seventh and what are his strengths there?
Prediction: The two teams are moving in opposite directions. Can key injuries change that momentum? It's tempting to say this will go seven games, but I'll be bold -- Jays in 5
