Post by Commissioner Erick on Nov 1, 2020 14:08:03 GMT -5
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays romped through the ALDS, sweeping the Seattle Mariners in comfortable fashion to advance to the ALCS. The Kansas City Royals, similarly, found themselves commanding the Texas Rangers and taking a 3-0 series lead, though they needed a second chance to put them away. This ALCS will feature two teams playing great baseball, which should lead to a great series.
The Toronto Blue Jays are a balanced team that saw six players homer in the ALDS, and their best player from the regular season, Jahmai Jones, is expected to return early in the series. Toronto’s pitching isn’t great, but it’s mostly a depth issue and a bullpen issue. Thomas Szapucki has been one of the best playoff arms in PBA history, and the addition of German Marquez from Milwaukee added another competent arm to a staff that needed one.
The Royals, meanwhile, played great defense, got great bullpen work, and saw the top six hitters in their rotation pulverize Texas. The Toronto lineup, however, is a bit deeper than the Texas lineup, and the Blue Jays feature a lefty starter that poses problems for the Royals’ lefty-heavy lineup. If Kansas City advances to the World Series, they’ll have earned it.
Royals Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Kansas City remains an excellent offense that can both get on base and hit home runs. The bottom three hitters in their lineup struggled against Texas, however, making the club a six-man lineup with five left-handers. Those left-handers are talented and versatile however. J.P. Crawford had a .421 average with a pair of doubles and a pair of steals in the ALDS. Jim Sattler had a pair of home runs, while Taylor Trammel clubbed two long balls and stole a base. Joe Rizzo hit .313 with a home run and three walks.
There’s contact, power, speed, and patience all over the top of the Kansas City lineup, and it primarily preys on right-handed pitching.
The Blue Jays will go with a four-man rotation it appears, with Szapucki and Marquez joined by T.J. Zeuch and Darge Gakere. Sapucki is the pitcher Kansas City will likely struggle with. He went 15-8 this year with a 3.88 ERA after leading the league with 18 wins and a 2.61 ERA in 2023. He’s been homer prone this year, allowing exactly one long ball in his last eight starts, but that’s offset by his big game history.
Despite Szapucki making the playoffs just three times, he’s already third in playoff wins and comes into the series with a 6-2, record and 3.25 ERA in postseason play. His first postseason start was cut short with back tightnes, but even dealing with that bad back in Game 4 of the ALDS, he found a way to allow only one run in 7 innings, with just three hits and no walks and 10 strikeouts against the Mariners to close them out. Szapucki was the catalyst for Toronto’s 2022 World Series run, and is having the same kind of postseason thus far.
German Marquez acquainted himself very nicely in his first career playoff start, and he’s been a quality pitcher for four seasons now. His issue however, is giving up home runs to left-handed hitters, which will be very concerning for the Blue Jays. T. J. Zeuch is similar to Marquez in that he has good stuff and throws strikes, but will give up home runs to left-handed hitters. Marquez and Zeuch will have to keep the ball in the park for the Blue Jays to keep the Royals lineup in check.
Darge Gakere is slated to get a start and he’s a real wild card. He was the hero of Game 1 when he came on for an injured Szapucki and Luiz Gohara and worked 3.1 hitless innings with eight strikeouts. Gakere has electric stuff and good control, but at only 21-years-old, he’s a bit overconfident and will groove pitches to opposing hitters. He yielded five home runs in just 15.1 innings. If he can be a bit more cautious, he could dominate the Royals lineup, but he could also yield four homers in three innings.
Toronto has the worst bullpen of any remaining team, and is very right-handed in the pen. No matter what, this suggests that that Royals might be in good shape if they’re merely close in the late innings. Michael Kopech had a good ALDS against Seattle, but is still wild and homer prone, even if his stuff plays up. Eduardo Paredes is less wild, but just as homer prone. Those are Toronto’s good options.
Danny Barnes allowed 2.4 home runs per nine innings. Shota Nakazaki allowed 1.9. Mike Nikorak allowed 2.0 and also walked 33 guys in 36 innings. Geremy Jimenez allowed 2.9 and walked 27 in 30.2 innings. D’Mond LaFond allowed 1.8. All those arms throw from the right side. There’s disaster potential everywhere.
Even the pen’s lone-lefty may not be able to save them. Loeck Roenhorst and his lizard-like smile allowed more homers to lefties than righties in fewer plate appearances this season, and he allowed five runs in 2 playoff innings. He’s fiery and can energize the team if they need a pick-me-up, but his inability to throw strikes is a problem.
Another good note for Kansas City is that they can play Marino Campana against Szapucki. Szapucki lost his start to the Royals this year as Campana and Sanchez each hit home runs off him. Campana is 3-10 off him lifetime, and while Sanchez is only batting .160, he does have three homers in 25 at bats.
Toronto has a pretty good defense that doesn’t get utilized enough with Toronto’s penchant for giving up home runs.
If Sattler and Lowe can tap into their power strokes this series, the Royals may be able to run up the score.
Blue Jays Offense versus Royals Pitching
Kansas City doesn’t have a team with great stuff, and will face an opponent that strikes out the second fewest times in the league. Limiting home runs and controlling balls in play will be the key to the matchup.
Toronto as a team had good walk and BABIP rates, but nothing that suggests they’re special in that area, and they were only ninth in home runs. Since they don’t strike themselves out, Toronto carried the second-best batting average, but they’ll be facing a very good defense.
The Blue Jays have two major power hitters, Jake Burger and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Burger hit 33 home runs, while Guerrero smashed 50. The rest of the offense thrives on patience and average.
Eric Drouet had a .374 OBP atop the Toronto lineup, while Taylor Walls had a .395 mark. The two hitters are always on base, the main reason Burger drove in 127 men this year and Guerrero 142. Yusniel Diaz had an .812 OPS often batting behind Guerrero. When Jahmai Jones returns, he’ll replenish the lower middle of the order. Often batting sixth, Jones hit .295 with 77 walks, 27 home runs, and 38 doubles.
Logan Enright had some patience at the bottom of the order, Dakota Robbins some pop, and Kole Enright was a legitimate power hitter with 25 home runs and 91 RBIs.
Off the bench, Estevan Florial will likely start the first game of the series at least. He’s mainly known for his speed and defense, but he also has power in his bat. Connor Scott has a decent bat and is a former ALCS MVP, while Cavan Biggio is a former starter. Luis Alexander Basabe is a great base-stealer and defender and he can also hit for power against righties. He usually spells Guerrero late. It’s a deep bench and makes Toronto trustworthy if players get hurt.
The other defining factor for Toronto is their speed, particularly with Jones in the starting lineup. As Matt Grubs highlighted in the ALDS preview, Toronto stole 147 bases and had a league-best wSB. They will take the extra base when they can. Against a team that limits homers and walks, that can become huge.
Fortunately for the Royals, they were the second-best team in the AL at throwing out runners trying to steal. That’s an angle for the Blue Jays that Gary Sanchez may be able to turn off on his own. Chance Adams, Tyler Alexander, and Chad Kuhl were the best arms for runners caught stealing, with Brent Honeywell, Tyler Lyons, and Addison Reed the easiest for runners to steal on. Toronto may have to excise this part of their strategy until late when they need a run with Reed and Lyons on the mound.
Adams is the best chance for a Royals pitcher to overwhelm the Blue Jays with pure stuff. He limits homers and walks, though his BABIP is a touch elevated. He couldn’t give the Royals any length in the ALDS though, and his starts may put pressure on Kansas City’s pen.
Chad Kuhl won’t allow homers and didn’t walk a Ranger in the ALDS. Toronto isn’t as big of a home-run hitting team so that aspect of Kuhl’s skillset is a bit more marginalized. Tyler Alexander led the AL in BABIP against this season so he may be in for a big series. Dakota Hudson was excellent at limiting home runs, while Brent Honeywell prevented walks. That may be a judgment call as to who is the better option.
Lyons and Reed had huge ALDS series and have a combined three postseason runs allowed between them in 31 playoff innings. Alex Colome didn’t work much against Texas, but hasn’t allowed a run in 13.2 playoff innings. That’s a 0.61 career playoff ERA for Kansas City’s best relief arms. Toronto may not be able to hit them hard, but Lyons and Reed will give up stolen bases at least. Still, the Royals should feel comfortable with their best relief arms on the mound.
Jose Torres has had a slightly elevated BABIP in his career, and is also a lefty where the best power hitters for Toronto are right-handed. He may not see too much work. Gabril Ynoa may be the best of the Royals options for long relief as he limits walks more than home runs, a trait that may be bigger for this series.
Season Series
Kansas City Dominated the Blue Jays, going 6-1 this year. They swept four games in Toronto in late June into July, then took two of three to close July, only losing the final game in extra innings.
Joe Rizzo homered twice and the trio of Colome, Lyons, and Reed went 2.1 shutout innings to pick up an ineffective Adams in a 9-7 Royals win. Sanchez and Campana homered off Szapucki the next day and the bullpen allowed just a run over 4 innings to nail down KC’s second win. Rizzo had three hits in the third game and the bullpen went 5 shutout innings to pick up an ineffective Kuhl. In the finale, Rizzo had two home runs to complete an 8-16 series with four homers and a double as Kansas City won 14-1.
In Kansas City, Sanchez and Burton each homered as the Royals knocked Zeuch out in the second to win the opener 7-1. The bottom of the order scored nine runs in the middle game as Michael Kopech was injured early and the Blue Jays bullpen allowed 13 runs in a 13-6 Royals win. With Kansas City’s best relievers used early, Toronto tied the finale in the ninth with a Logan Warmoth double off Gabriel Ynoa, then tagged Gomber and Ynoa for six in the 11th inning as the Jays salvaged a 9-6 win.
Deciding Questions
It appears that no matter what, the Royals will hit some homers in the series. Can Toronto prevent walks and hits so the homers are solo-shots and not multi-run blasts?
Szapucki can likely handle the Royals lineup. Can Gakere deliver in the series to give Toronto another difference maker on the mound?
Toronto has a more balanced lineup than Kansas City’s, and Royals starters struggled at times versus the Blue Jays in the regular season. Can their collection of non-dominant arms have a strong series?
Prediction: Szapucki shuts down the Royals in Game 1, but Toronto gives up a bunch of runs the rest of the series. Kansas City’s bullpen shuts down Toronto in a high-scoring series. Royals in 5