Post by Commissioner Erick on Nov 2, 2020 8:26:11 GMT -5
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs are two of the PBA’s most storied organizations with 14 playoff appearances, 13 division titles, and the 2020 World Championship between them. The Dodgers were the best team in the National League on both sides of the ball, though their offense struggled in a seven game series against the Giants in the NLDS. The Cubs were second in run prevention and fourth in runs scored during the season, and dispatched the Phillies in seven games for the second consecutive season.
It will be a clash of the titans and should be one fun series.
Dodgers offense versus Cubs pitching
The Los Angeles Dodgers struggled to score in the NLDS, but they should be better in the NLCS with Alex Verdugo returning to the mound. Los Angeles scored just 18 runs the first six games of the NLDS before a seven-run explosion in Game 7. The Dodgers best attributes are their ability to make contact, their left-handed power, and their excellence at getting on base. Alex Verdugo, Nomar Mazara, and Willie Calhoun each popped over 40-home runs from the left side, while Alex Bregman and Seiya Suzuki hit 70 combined from the right side to provide a semblance of balance. Bregman also had a near .400 OBP to get on base ahead of all the power behind it.
To combat those lefties, the Cubs may roll out a rotation consisting entirely of left-handers. Marco Gonzales claims to be pain-free from the barking elbow he’s carried the last few weeks. He’s had an ERA in the low-threes the last three seasons, and prevents walks, home runs, and BABIP. He’s been one of the best arms in the game the last few years. Sam Howard is pretty homer prone, which could prove disastrous in the series, despite his left-handed nature. He gave up five runs to the Dodgers in his only start against them this year. Steven Matz, however, is as good as they get from the left side. He pairs outstanding stuff with good control, and he’s not terrible at letting balls go over the fence. Matz’ lone issue is yielding home runs to right-handed batters so if a few batters reach in the middle innings and Bregman or Suzuki are up, it may be time to go to the bullpen.
Chicago’s bullpen is outstanding. Bonkers Carrizales is one of the PBA’s best playoff performers with a career 2.22 ERA and 88 strikeouts against 56.2 innings. He shuts down righties and lefties alike, is first in playoff appearances, and despite being a mere reliever, has the fifth most postseason strikeouts of all time. He has the third best postseason ERA as well and can go multiple innings. Chicago will need to use him as a weapon.
Zack Britton is Chicago’s other late-inning arm, though one with a checkered playoff past as he carries a 6.30 career playoff ERA. Britton hardly gets strikeouts in the playoffs, and too many balls in play have reached as base hits in playoffs past. His left-handedness should help against the Dodgers somewhat, but he’s shakier than his career regular season numbers—which are terrific—would indicate.
Giovanny Gallegos is also a reliable playoff arm who has come through more often than not with the Yankees and Cubs. He has pretty severe platoon splits though, so the heart of the Dodgers order may be trouble for him. Skylar Arias should be the pitcher who gets that responsibility in the middle innings. Rayan Gonzalez and Cletus Draves had decent NLDS’, but each is a little too volatile to handle the Dodgers comfortably. Kyle Wright and Cobi Johnson are better long men than most.
The 9-1-2 hitters for the Dodgers can steal a base, so against stingy pitchers, like maybe Bonkers, the running game can help the Dodgers out. Simon Muzziotti can also steal a base off the bench. The rest of the Dodgers backups tend to be defensive players with weak bats.
Cubs offense versus Dodgers pitching
The Cubs hitters have a ton of playoff experience. So many at bats against great pitching has tempered career averages, but Xander Bogaerts and Francisco Lindor still get on base at an amazing pace. Bogaerts has a .300/.364./.514 career triple slash, which is pretty good. Francisco Lindor has a .336/.382/.611 mark, which is preposterous. Those two hitters put pressure on opponents right from the top of the order.
Freddie Freeman and Dominic Smith provide 83 home runs and 240 RBIs from the left side of the order, as each combines an ability to get on base with major power. Kris Bryant can be beaten with great stuff, but will clobber mistakes from the right side. Wilson Contreras and Brandon Marsh have struggled this year, while Greg Allen is decent at the bottom of the order.
The Cubs are patient and will work their share of walks. They’ll also strike out, particularly Freeman and Bryant. Elite pitching could neutralize those two, even should Lindor and Bogaerts play well around them.
Unfortunately, because he worked Game 7 of the NLDS, the Dodgers will likely only get to use Corey Kluber two times at most this series. Kluber can be homer-prone, but he has great stuff and truly exceptional command. He’s an arm who can overwhelm a hitter like Freeman or Bryant with his stuff. In fact, the duo is a combined 1-16 lifetime against The Klubot.
Eduardo Rodriguez will likely start Game 1 and is a candidate to make three starts in the series if necessary. He had a terrific NLDS and has outstanding command as well. He hardly walks anything, yet doesn’t give in, with a career of low BABIPS since joining the National League.
The Dodgers will likely be in control when Rodriguez and Kluber start, but J.B. Bukauskas and Matt Trask are a step down. Bukauskas had a good series against the Giants, but gives up home runs and doesn’t have electric stuff to compensate. How he fares against Freeman and Brown will be huge. Matt Trask actually had reverse platoon splits this year. He had a decent 4.24 ERA his rookie year, but doesn’t have great stuff according to scouts. If he can provide a big game for the Dodgers, they’ll almost certainly win the series.
The Dodgers have a great bullpen, one with the second-best bullpen ERA in the league. Kenley Jansen saved 34 games this year, David Robertson had a 1.48 ERA as a setup man, and Mike Caldwell had a 2.72 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP. Osiris Ramirez is great in middle relief as a live arm who strikes hitters out and prevents home runs.
The Dodgers have three lefties in the pen, but all are better against righties than lefties—though that could be a product of very good left-handed hitters in the NL West. It’s still a concern though, and it will be interesting to see how the Dodgers navigate Chicago’s lefties.
Season Series
The Dodgers won the season series 5-2. The Cubs won a three-game set in Chicago back in April, but the Dodgers swept at home in June. Marco Gonzales and Kyle Wright had strong starts and first Kris Bryant, then Xander Bogaerts had two-homer games as the Cubs won the first two matchups with Los Angeles. Eduardo Rodriguez didn’t allow an earned run in the finale, though, as the Dodgers salvaged a game.
In LA, the Cubs managed just 23 hits across four games, scoring six runs in the series as the Dodgers’ arms overwhelmed them. Rodriguez and Kluber didn’t allow runs, while Bukauskas had a quality start and Logan Allen got a win. Kris Bryant had a game off, but went 0-13 with nine strikeouts when he played.
Deciding Questions
Can Howard limit the longball in his starts?
Can Smith and Freeman punish the right-handed arms of the Dodgers?
Will Bukasuas and Trask have strong starts?
Prediction: Both teams have the starting pitchers to keep this a low scoring series, especially with the Dodgers offensive woes this postseason. The Dodgers have a little bit better bullpen, a little bit better lineup, and a little bit better edge in starting pitching. Those little advantages will work themselves out as the series progresses. Dodgers 4-2.