Post by Commissioner Erick on Nov 7, 2020 14:23:18 GMT -5
Los Angeles Dodgers (114-48) vs Toronto Blue Jays (90-72)
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays have each made it to the World Series for the second time in PBA history, though each team was led by different management at the time. Troy Allenbagh piloted the Dodgers when they won the title in 2019, while Brian Violette took Toronto to the 2022 World Series where they lost to Arizona. As such, this will be Ben Vincent and Mike Leitao’s first attempts to win a title for themselves.
The Dodgers’ pitching has smothered opposing pitching staffs the entire postseason, and Seiya Suzuki has provided the power when the club has needed it. Toronto outclassed Seattle in the ALDS, and got dramatic home runs in the ALCS, not once, but twice, from Jake Burger and Vladimir Guerrero. Jr.
The major factor working against Toronto is the fact that they needed to use three starting pitchers to hold on and beat Kansas City in Game 7 of the ALDS, and the starter they didn’t use has struggled. The Dodgers staff is very well rested, giving them a nice edge.
Dodgers Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Toronto’s staff will be short-handed early in the series while Thomas Szapucki, Darge Gakere, and German Marquez recover from working Game 7 of the ALCS. Game 1 will likely go to T.J. Zeuch, while Game 2 will be handled by either the Thinking Face emoji or perhaps three question marks. D’Mond Lafond may be the guy to get the ball in Game 2.
This gives the Dodgers a huge edge in Dodger Stadium. Zeuch has a 10.50 postseason ERA and has been hit harder than that. He’s allowed five home runs in 12 innings, and has yielded a .442 BABIP. The Dodgers offense is struggling a little bit, but should find success. La’Fond, meanwhile, has had a good playoffs as a reliever, but he also had a 5.92 ERA in the Regular Season and struggled with the long ball. Left-handed Dodgers sluggers Nomar Mazara, Alex Verdugo, and Willie Calhoun should be licking their chops. Even German Marquez, solid as he is, becomes a questionable play with the Dodgers’ left-handed power bats.
Thomas Szapucki is a better play as he has the goods to neutralize the Dodger sluggers. However, he allowed three runs in a 4 inning start in LA earlier this year as Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki and the right-handers were able to handle him.
This is a profile of doom for the Blue Jays, but they do have some hope as the Dodgers bats have not had a strong postseason. Luis Urias and Alex Bregman have playoff OPSs in the mid .600s, while Alex Verdugo is still shaking off the rust and batting .182. Jeren Kendall has three home runs, including a dramatic blast in Game 1 of the NLCS, but has just four hits total. Amin Valdez has a .327 OPS. Austin Hedges has a .400 OPS on the back of one strong game.
It's a lineup that has seen consistent production from only Nomar Mazara and Seiya Suzuki. With three hit-by-pitches raising his on-base percentage, Willie Calhoun has been decent as well. That’s it. If Sazapucki can spin a gem and the righties can neutralize Bregman, the stray solo home runs from the middle of the order may not be enough.
Toronto is also buoyed by a maligned bullpen that has fixed itself for the postseason. Michael Kopech has allowed eight walks in 8.1 innings, but only one unearned run. Importantly he’s whiffed 10 and allowed a .158 BABIP. Normally that’s an unsustainable BABIP, but against the Dodgers, it may hold up for another series. Setup reliever Eduardo Paredes has allowed just one baserunner in 3.1 innings. The Blue Jays may be fairly secure late in games.
The middle-innings are a different story where very wild arms pitch for the Jays. Geremy Jimenez and Mike Nikorak have survived so far, but it’s a risky proposition when they take the hill. Loeck Roenhorst was big against a very left-handed Kansas City lineup, but will he hold up against the more balanced Dodgers?
Blue Jays Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
The Dodgers staff has been amazing this entire postseason, facing two good teams and holding them to 2.91 runs a game. If the Blue Jays average fewer than three runs a game during the World Series, they probably lose.
Corey Kluber and Eduardo Rodriguez are the two dominant anchors atop the Dodger rotation. Kluber had another exceptional regular season, but after a hamstring strain in early September, he had to shake the rust off against the Giants in the NLDS. Fully up to speed in the NLCS, he fired off 7 innings of one-run ball against the potent Chicago lineup.
Rodriguez, meanwhile, has been simply outstanding. He was awful in the postseason early in his career with the White Sox, but maturity has steeled him for the pressures of October. He’s walked one batter and whiffed 26 in 18.2 playoff innings, leaving off from a Regular Season where he went 15-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Rodriguez limits walks and suppresses hits, and he has a changeup that helps mitigate right-handed power. That makes him an effective play, even against the middle of the Toronto order.
J.B. Bukauskas was fine versus the Giants, but was lit up in Game 1 against the Cubs. He’s had a strong season, so the outing is likely just a blip. Bukauskas has severe platoon splits, but dominates righties leading analysts to believe he’ll have a stronger World Series than NLCS. Matt Trask meanwhile, like Bukauskas had a solid series against San Francisco, but Trask actually excelled in his NLCS start. Trask has strong control but weird splits against right-handed hitters as they hit almost .300 against him. It’s anybody’s guess how he’ll fare.
If the Dodgers do need to go their pen early, they’re comforted by the fact that the squad has been absolutely spectacular. Dodger relief arms worked 14.1 innings against Chicago in the NLCS and didn’t allow a run. This is after the unit worked 18 innings against San Francisco and allowed a measly run. That means Los Angeles has a 0.28 bullpen ERA this postseason.
If Toronto is going to win, they’re going to have to score runs early, meaning getting to Trask and Bukauskas at a minimum. The Blue Jays lineup is pretty-heavily right-handed making them a bit of a poor match as the Dodgers vulnerable arms are also right-handed.
Eric Drouet and Taylor Walls have quietly had nice series getting on base for Burger and Guerrero behind them. The Dodgers aren’t likely to walk many, so Drouet and Walls’ ability to carry high BABIPS may be instrumental to generating offense. Walls has both been able to draw walks and collect hits on balls in play his entire career, and Rattlesnake Drouet has a postseason BABIP of .408 after a Regular Season BABIP of .331. With Drouet’s preternatural bat speed and the Dodgers’ defensive issues, those elevated numbers may hold.
The question may be how Burger and Guerrero fare this series. They aren’t players armed with high BABIPs and the Dodgers will likely limit their power. They at least have pretty decent strikeout rates so they may be able to find some holes in the defense just by making contact. Still, the Dodgers stymied Kris Bryant and Manny Machado in the last round, their only experience with right-handed sluggers this postseason. Toronto won’t have a chance if Guerrero and Burger have poor series, especially with Jahmai Jones still working his way back into form.
Kole Enright has had a nice postseason and though he’s a switch hitter, he’s better against righties. He could be a nice source of secondary offense near the bottom of the order. Yusnial Diaz hasn’t had the best playoff track record, and Logan Warmoth’s patience may be neutralized by the Dodgers, so after Enright, the Blue Jays lineup may not provide much.
Toronto can bring Luis Alexander Basabe off the bench against one of the Dodgers lefties if they need to, say, pinch hit for a Catcher, and Basabe usually spells Guerrero for defense late in games. Estevan Florial is a strong left-handed hitter with power, speed, and defense and may be worth getting a look over Diaz if Diaz struggles. Toronto definitely has depth of injuries crop up.
The Dodgers, as mentioned, have a dreadful defense, particularly in the infield. Drouet and Walls are groundball hitters so Toronto should get some more baserunners than usual.
Season Series
3-0 Dodgers
The Dodgers hosted the Blue Jays for a home series in late August and swept. Bukauskas worked 7.2 shutout innings, walking nobody and striking out 11 in a 6-0 win to start the series. In the middle game, the Blue Jays got three in the seventh and two in the eighth to tie the Dodgers at 6. In the ninth, Toronto got two walks against Will Harris and successfully played small ball, getting a sacrifice from Florial and a Sacrifice Fly from T.J. Collette against Kenley Jansen to take the lead. However, after Eduardo Paredes allowed a hit to Jeren Kendall to lead off the bottom of the ninth, the Dodgers got some small ball of their own. Alex Bregman sacrificed, and though Willie Calhoun hit a rocket to right field that was caught by Basabe for an out, Alex Verdugo doubled in Kendall to tie the game. Things stayed drama free until the bottom of the 11th, when Seiya Suzuki hit a two-out, walkoff Grand Slam to beat Collin Wiles and the Jays 11-7.
In the finale, Eduardo Rodguez and Mike Serrano were both injured in the early innings, while the Dodgers righties were able to get to Thomas Szapucki leading to both bullpens used early. The game was tied heading to the eighth, but Alex Bregman hit a two-run home run off Barnes to give the Dodgers a lead they’d hold on to.
Deciding Questions
Can Burger and Guerrero have strong series?
Will Toronto’s bullpen continue its run of success?
Will Luis Urias snap out of his funk and get on base in front of the Dodgers sluggers?
Prediction: The Dodgers will take the first two games pretty comfortably with their aces matching up against Toronto’s lesser arms. Toronto will come back a little bit when they can get their better arms aligned, but it won’t be enough. Dodgers in 6.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays have each made it to the World Series for the second time in PBA history, though each team was led by different management at the time. Troy Allenbagh piloted the Dodgers when they won the title in 2019, while Brian Violette took Toronto to the 2022 World Series where they lost to Arizona. As such, this will be Ben Vincent and Mike Leitao’s first attempts to win a title for themselves.
The Dodgers’ pitching has smothered opposing pitching staffs the entire postseason, and Seiya Suzuki has provided the power when the club has needed it. Toronto outclassed Seattle in the ALDS, and got dramatic home runs in the ALCS, not once, but twice, from Jake Burger and Vladimir Guerrero. Jr.
The major factor working against Toronto is the fact that they needed to use three starting pitchers to hold on and beat Kansas City in Game 7 of the ALDS, and the starter they didn’t use has struggled. The Dodgers staff is very well rested, giving them a nice edge.
Dodgers Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Toronto’s staff will be short-handed early in the series while Thomas Szapucki, Darge Gakere, and German Marquez recover from working Game 7 of the ALCS. Game 1 will likely go to T.J. Zeuch, while Game 2 will be handled by either the Thinking Face emoji or perhaps three question marks. D’Mond Lafond may be the guy to get the ball in Game 2.
This gives the Dodgers a huge edge in Dodger Stadium. Zeuch has a 10.50 postseason ERA and has been hit harder than that. He’s allowed five home runs in 12 innings, and has yielded a .442 BABIP. The Dodgers offense is struggling a little bit, but should find success. La’Fond, meanwhile, has had a good playoffs as a reliever, but he also had a 5.92 ERA in the Regular Season and struggled with the long ball. Left-handed Dodgers sluggers Nomar Mazara, Alex Verdugo, and Willie Calhoun should be licking their chops. Even German Marquez, solid as he is, becomes a questionable play with the Dodgers’ left-handed power bats.
Thomas Szapucki is a better play as he has the goods to neutralize the Dodger sluggers. However, he allowed three runs in a 4 inning start in LA earlier this year as Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki and the right-handers were able to handle him.
This is a profile of doom for the Blue Jays, but they do have some hope as the Dodgers bats have not had a strong postseason. Luis Urias and Alex Bregman have playoff OPSs in the mid .600s, while Alex Verdugo is still shaking off the rust and batting .182. Jeren Kendall has three home runs, including a dramatic blast in Game 1 of the NLCS, but has just four hits total. Amin Valdez has a .327 OPS. Austin Hedges has a .400 OPS on the back of one strong game.
It's a lineup that has seen consistent production from only Nomar Mazara and Seiya Suzuki. With three hit-by-pitches raising his on-base percentage, Willie Calhoun has been decent as well. That’s it. If Sazapucki can spin a gem and the righties can neutralize Bregman, the stray solo home runs from the middle of the order may not be enough.
Toronto is also buoyed by a maligned bullpen that has fixed itself for the postseason. Michael Kopech has allowed eight walks in 8.1 innings, but only one unearned run. Importantly he’s whiffed 10 and allowed a .158 BABIP. Normally that’s an unsustainable BABIP, but against the Dodgers, it may hold up for another series. Setup reliever Eduardo Paredes has allowed just one baserunner in 3.1 innings. The Blue Jays may be fairly secure late in games.
The middle-innings are a different story where very wild arms pitch for the Jays. Geremy Jimenez and Mike Nikorak have survived so far, but it’s a risky proposition when they take the hill. Loeck Roenhorst was big against a very left-handed Kansas City lineup, but will he hold up against the more balanced Dodgers?
Blue Jays Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
The Dodgers staff has been amazing this entire postseason, facing two good teams and holding them to 2.91 runs a game. If the Blue Jays average fewer than three runs a game during the World Series, they probably lose.
Corey Kluber and Eduardo Rodriguez are the two dominant anchors atop the Dodger rotation. Kluber had another exceptional regular season, but after a hamstring strain in early September, he had to shake the rust off against the Giants in the NLDS. Fully up to speed in the NLCS, he fired off 7 innings of one-run ball against the potent Chicago lineup.
Rodriguez, meanwhile, has been simply outstanding. He was awful in the postseason early in his career with the White Sox, but maturity has steeled him for the pressures of October. He’s walked one batter and whiffed 26 in 18.2 playoff innings, leaving off from a Regular Season where he went 15-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Rodriguez limits walks and suppresses hits, and he has a changeup that helps mitigate right-handed power. That makes him an effective play, even against the middle of the Toronto order.
J.B. Bukauskas was fine versus the Giants, but was lit up in Game 1 against the Cubs. He’s had a strong season, so the outing is likely just a blip. Bukauskas has severe platoon splits, but dominates righties leading analysts to believe he’ll have a stronger World Series than NLCS. Matt Trask meanwhile, like Bukauskas had a solid series against San Francisco, but Trask actually excelled in his NLCS start. Trask has strong control but weird splits against right-handed hitters as they hit almost .300 against him. It’s anybody’s guess how he’ll fare.
If the Dodgers do need to go their pen early, they’re comforted by the fact that the squad has been absolutely spectacular. Dodger relief arms worked 14.1 innings against Chicago in the NLCS and didn’t allow a run. This is after the unit worked 18 innings against San Francisco and allowed a measly run. That means Los Angeles has a 0.28 bullpen ERA this postseason.
If Toronto is going to win, they’re going to have to score runs early, meaning getting to Trask and Bukauskas at a minimum. The Blue Jays lineup is pretty-heavily right-handed making them a bit of a poor match as the Dodgers vulnerable arms are also right-handed.
Eric Drouet and Taylor Walls have quietly had nice series getting on base for Burger and Guerrero behind them. The Dodgers aren’t likely to walk many, so Drouet and Walls’ ability to carry high BABIPS may be instrumental to generating offense. Walls has both been able to draw walks and collect hits on balls in play his entire career, and Rattlesnake Drouet has a postseason BABIP of .408 after a Regular Season BABIP of .331. With Drouet’s preternatural bat speed and the Dodgers’ defensive issues, those elevated numbers may hold.
The question may be how Burger and Guerrero fare this series. They aren’t players armed with high BABIPs and the Dodgers will likely limit their power. They at least have pretty decent strikeout rates so they may be able to find some holes in the defense just by making contact. Still, the Dodgers stymied Kris Bryant and Manny Machado in the last round, their only experience with right-handed sluggers this postseason. Toronto won’t have a chance if Guerrero and Burger have poor series, especially with Jahmai Jones still working his way back into form.
Kole Enright has had a nice postseason and though he’s a switch hitter, he’s better against righties. He could be a nice source of secondary offense near the bottom of the order. Yusnial Diaz hasn’t had the best playoff track record, and Logan Warmoth’s patience may be neutralized by the Dodgers, so after Enright, the Blue Jays lineup may not provide much.
Toronto can bring Luis Alexander Basabe off the bench against one of the Dodgers lefties if they need to, say, pinch hit for a Catcher, and Basabe usually spells Guerrero for defense late in games. Estevan Florial is a strong left-handed hitter with power, speed, and defense and may be worth getting a look over Diaz if Diaz struggles. Toronto definitely has depth of injuries crop up.
The Dodgers, as mentioned, have a dreadful defense, particularly in the infield. Drouet and Walls are groundball hitters so Toronto should get some more baserunners than usual.
Season Series
3-0 Dodgers
The Dodgers hosted the Blue Jays for a home series in late August and swept. Bukauskas worked 7.2 shutout innings, walking nobody and striking out 11 in a 6-0 win to start the series. In the middle game, the Blue Jays got three in the seventh and two in the eighth to tie the Dodgers at 6. In the ninth, Toronto got two walks against Will Harris and successfully played small ball, getting a sacrifice from Florial and a Sacrifice Fly from T.J. Collette against Kenley Jansen to take the lead. However, after Eduardo Paredes allowed a hit to Jeren Kendall to lead off the bottom of the ninth, the Dodgers got some small ball of their own. Alex Bregman sacrificed, and though Willie Calhoun hit a rocket to right field that was caught by Basabe for an out, Alex Verdugo doubled in Kendall to tie the game. Things stayed drama free until the bottom of the 11th, when Seiya Suzuki hit a two-out, walkoff Grand Slam to beat Collin Wiles and the Jays 11-7.
In the finale, Eduardo Rodguez and Mike Serrano were both injured in the early innings, while the Dodgers righties were able to get to Thomas Szapucki leading to both bullpens used early. The game was tied heading to the eighth, but Alex Bregman hit a two-run home run off Barnes to give the Dodgers a lead they’d hold on to.
Deciding Questions
Can Burger and Guerrero have strong series?
Will Toronto’s bullpen continue its run of success?
Will Luis Urias snap out of his funk and get on base in front of the Dodgers sluggers?
Prediction: The Dodgers will take the first two games pretty comfortably with their aces matching up against Toronto’s lesser arms. Toronto will come back a little bit when they can get their better arms aligned, but it won’t be enough. Dodgers in 6.