Post by Commissioner Erick on Sept 30, 2017 21:32:32 GMT -5
With the regular season of the Dominican Rookie League over, I decided to take a look at some of the best and most disappointing performances of each team. The Arizona League has also ended and it in its postseason, but as I don't have a team in that league, I barely recognize its existence. Plus, the Marlins have hyped up some of their young players in their Dominican League team, so it has some visibility!
3B Zach Gahagan—Marlins: Speaking of the Marlins, Gahagan is the leader in WAR among hitters in the league. Gahagan was a 10th round pick, meaning most teams missed the boat. OSA has him as a 2.5 star player, and while my scout doesn't have him that high, he's seen Gahagan's potential increase this season. Gahagan doesn't project to have great bat control, leading to poor contact and whiffs. However, he has some pop, some patience, lift in his swing, some speed, and a strong defensive package that project as plus at third base.
Gahagan is already 22 years old, and advanced for the low minors. The Dominican League was certainly too easy for him, which is why he led in all the power categories and is up there in zone rating. The Marlins pushed him to A-Ball where he's continued to mash in two weeks there. He could be a backup at this rate, and it will be interesting following him along.
CF Frankeny Fernandez—Astros: Fernandez leads the league in average, at .414. He was already part of the Dominican Astros, and kicked off his professional career in style. He also popped seven triples, eight home runs, and had 32 walks to 36 strikeouts. The walks allowed him to lead the league in on-base percentage too.
Fernandez played good defense in left, not in center, and he learned second base as well. At 20, his age and talent were on par for the league. Most scouts project enough competence where he could be a decent organizational guy, though he's probably not even a potential starter in the upper minors at this point. However, he's already succeeded in his first stint as a pro, and those types can never be discounted.
CF Maicol Sosa—Marlins: The DSR leader in runs scored is Maicol Sosa. Sosa no doubt benefited by hitting in front of Gahagan for most of the year. In fact, his 76 runs scored is 13 more than the second place Gahagan, with two different Marlins in third and fourth. For your information, Academio de Prospecto Complex is a pitcher's park. Sosa had a .325 average, and 47 walks to 64 strikeouts bumped his OBP up to .429.
My scout has Sosa rated higher this year than OSA does, and puts a 4 on his contact. In rookie ball, a 4 is a good start to having a good average. My scout also has a 3 for his patience which means lots of times on base. With a potent lineup, it's no surprise Sosa scored so many runs. Sosa has defensive tools but was bad in center field and probably tops out as a left fielder. My scout also sees Sosa as having the patience and hit tool to be a leadoff hitter in A ball, but nothing more than that. OSA sees a bit more power so maybe he performs well in Double A. At 18 years old, he has more than enough time to put more than that together.
3B Wander Franco—Astros: Cabrera tied with Gahagan for the DSL lead in RBI's. He's been hitting behind players with good averages like Frankeny Fernandez all season. He clubbed 17 home runs, third in the league, and hit .350. He struggled in some brief time at Short-A, but will likely see time there next year after doing well in Rookie Ball.
With serviceable speed and defense and a limited bat, OSA doesn't see him leaving A-ball. My scout doesn't differ. Once Franco starts facing better pitching, we can see if the scouts may be wrong in their assessments.
CF Jean Carlos Arias—Twins: Arias stole 18 of 20 bases to lead the league. He hits the ball on the ground a lot, which fueled a .322 average, and has excellent patience, giving him a .397 on-base percentage. With really good speed, those were the tools to being a top-tier stolen base threat. Arias is a good left fielder and perhaps can become a good center fielder with repetitions.
My scout and OSA differ on both Arias' current skills and future potential, though none of us think he has a world of potential. OSA sees him as someone who can be a speed-and-defense first player in the upper minors. My scout doesn't see him topping out above A-Ball. It will be important for Arias to see what he can do against better pitchers. At 19, he has time.
SS Brooks Kennedy—White Sox: Kennedy had a .412 average, 30 doubles, eight triples, played great defense, and wound up second in WAR. Kennedy was a late-round pick, 22nd round for Chicago, yet manage to outplay nearly all his peers in the league.
Kennedy is also a testament to context. At 21, Kennedy has a mature hit tool, which he used to hit .412, fueling most of his WAR. He was simply more talented relative to his peers. Unlike Zach Gahagan, he doesn't project to have a major league future though. Kennedy offers plus speed and strong defensive versatility. He has tools to be decent in both the infield and the outfield, plus has experience at center field and shortstop. Those secondary tools may allow him to reach Double-A, maybe. Aside from that, he doesn't have the offensive profile to hit anyplace other than against the teenage pitchers of the Dominican.
SP Joey Wentz—Padres: The 19-year old Wentz led the DSL in ERA, with a 2.02 mark. He went 6-2, walked 16 and struck out 103 in the league. Traded with others in the Dinelson Lamet deal that is looking disastrous, Wentz started off in A-Ball before going to the Dominican and dominating the league.
OSA sees a raw kid with the arm action for huge potential as a frontline pitcher. My scout sees a mostly polished pitcher way more advanced for Rookie Ball. Considering how advanced Wentz' command looked in Rookie Ball, the Padres may want to find another arm with huge potential since OSA may not have the best evaluators looking at the kid.
SP Brailyn Marquez—Cubs: Marquez led the league in strikeouts, and as a result, in WAR, with 2.5. With a 4.40 ERA, he didn't have the best season. He was first in strikeouts, but also was top 10 in innings, and also walks. Mostly, he just pitched a lot as the Cubs mostly went with four arms this season. Still, 111 strikeouts is impressive, no matter the circumstances.
My scout has Marquez clocked a bit harder than OSA, which means he was probably overwhelming hitters with a low-90's heater. Everyone agrees he gets good downward break, though doesn't have great control. OSA sees Marquez really honing his control, enough to be a good Triple-A starter, perhaps even a fringe big leaguer. My scout doesn't see the control coming around, with Marquez likely topping out at Triple-A. At 18 years old, he has a lot of strikeouts ahead of him to change people's minds.
SP Jake Godfrey—Orioles: Godfrey was popped in the 7th round by Baltimore and turned in a strong season. He led the league in wins with eight, had 92 strikeouts, and accumulated 2.2 WAR. His 8-2 mark was sharp, as he was the ace of a team that won its division.
My scout and OSA both agree that Gofrey was advanced for his level, with a 21-year old body, excellent control and movement, and decent control. He only has full command of his fastball and curveball at this point, but it's all he needed to mow down the DSL. My scout doesn't see a future for Gofrey, topping out at A-Ball. OSA sees a big two-seam fastball and curveball combo that will have him in the middle of a rotation. A smart kid who works hard and has had early success, it wouldn't be surprising if he reached that potential.
RP Tyler Johnson—Orioles: Johnson was the leader in saves with 24. No other pitcher had more than 19. Johnson had a sparkling 1.31 ERA, didn't allow a home run, and struck out 60 in 34.1 innings. He put up a 1.4 WAR and achieved his success despite a .441 BABIP. Johnson was actually drafted a round earlier than Godfrey as Baltimore popped him in round 6 of this year's draft.
Johnson is similar to Godfrey in that he was 21 years old and advanced for the league. With a fastball at 97, and a two-seamer in the mid-90s, Johnson overpowered the league with his stuff. He didn't have the best control, but the DSR was probably not a challenge for him. Both my scout and OSA see big stuff and some control problems. If his changeup comes along, he could be pitching in the majors, but if not, he'll be a Triple-A player.
C Connor Wong—Twins: Twins is the highest draft pick to spend significant time in the DSL, getting popped with the first pick in the 3rd round. However, he's only mustered 19 plate appearances and one start despite being a third round pick. He's hitting .333 with five walks, he just can't see the field.
Both my scout and OSA have Mateo as an advanced bat for Rookie Ball. OSA thinks he'll be an impact bat in the majors, while my scout sees him as a Triple-A bat. Wong also offers defensive flexibility and can be competent at all eight spots on the diamond. His makeup is also off the charts. This just leads to a bummer of a feeling as it seems like Wong wasted a season.
RF K.J. Bryant—Cubs: After Wong, the few players drafted who played in the DSL were effective. Bryant was picked in Round 6. He's 21, with both OSA and my scout agreeing that Bryant is an advanced bat. Bryant had an .812 OPS and would have likely tore up the league had he played often. Except he started zero games. Bryant only had 28 plate appearances despite a healthy season, which saw him fail to develop.
My scout sees Bryant as a steady defensive player with good speed, who can play in the upper minors. OSA sees someone with less speed but is more polished of an outfielder, and who can play in the majors. Unfortunately, he's still a major question mark because he didn't play.
SP Jordan Butler—Tigers: Butler worked 62 innings this year, pitching to a 6.24 ERA. He walked 33 and struck out 58, highlighting his talent, but also his total lack of control. With a .410 BABIP against him, Butler's WHIP was almost 2.
Both OSA and my scout see Butler as extremely raw, and he's only 18 years old. Each thinks Butler has some potential to make it to the majors, but it will take a world of patience and growing pains as Butler learns to work through his kinks.
SP Conor Grady—Indians: The next pitcher selected after Tyler Johnson, Grady had a rough go in the DSL, working to a 2-5 record and under 5 innings pitched a start, with a 7.65 ERA. The 18 year old wasn't ready for the workload suffering from dead arm at the end of the year. Like Butler, Grady got some strikeouts, but horrible command and a horrible defense collaborated to get him to a 1.99 WHIP. Grady kept the ball in the park—only four home runs—and struck out 65 in 57.2 innings, so there's a silver lining at least.
Grady is incredibly raw and just learning a changeup, one reason for his struggles. It's no surprise he went through this, though seeing that many runs score on you could hurt his psyche. My scout doesn't see Grady getting past Triple-A, but OSA sees a big league future if Grady can eventually harness his changeup. Good luck.
3B Zach Gahagan—Marlins: Speaking of the Marlins, Gahagan is the leader in WAR among hitters in the league. Gahagan was a 10th round pick, meaning most teams missed the boat. OSA has him as a 2.5 star player, and while my scout doesn't have him that high, he's seen Gahagan's potential increase this season. Gahagan doesn't project to have great bat control, leading to poor contact and whiffs. However, he has some pop, some patience, lift in his swing, some speed, and a strong defensive package that project as plus at third base.
Gahagan is already 22 years old, and advanced for the low minors. The Dominican League was certainly too easy for him, which is why he led in all the power categories and is up there in zone rating. The Marlins pushed him to A-Ball where he's continued to mash in two weeks there. He could be a backup at this rate, and it will be interesting following him along.
CF Frankeny Fernandez—Astros: Fernandez leads the league in average, at .414. He was already part of the Dominican Astros, and kicked off his professional career in style. He also popped seven triples, eight home runs, and had 32 walks to 36 strikeouts. The walks allowed him to lead the league in on-base percentage too.
Fernandez played good defense in left, not in center, and he learned second base as well. At 20, his age and talent were on par for the league. Most scouts project enough competence where he could be a decent organizational guy, though he's probably not even a potential starter in the upper minors at this point. However, he's already succeeded in his first stint as a pro, and those types can never be discounted.
CF Maicol Sosa—Marlins: The DSR leader in runs scored is Maicol Sosa. Sosa no doubt benefited by hitting in front of Gahagan for most of the year. In fact, his 76 runs scored is 13 more than the second place Gahagan, with two different Marlins in third and fourth. For your information, Academio de Prospecto Complex is a pitcher's park. Sosa had a .325 average, and 47 walks to 64 strikeouts bumped his OBP up to .429.
My scout has Sosa rated higher this year than OSA does, and puts a 4 on his contact. In rookie ball, a 4 is a good start to having a good average. My scout also has a 3 for his patience which means lots of times on base. With a potent lineup, it's no surprise Sosa scored so many runs. Sosa has defensive tools but was bad in center field and probably tops out as a left fielder. My scout also sees Sosa as having the patience and hit tool to be a leadoff hitter in A ball, but nothing more than that. OSA sees a bit more power so maybe he performs well in Double A. At 18 years old, he has more than enough time to put more than that together.
3B Wander Franco—Astros: Cabrera tied with Gahagan for the DSL lead in RBI's. He's been hitting behind players with good averages like Frankeny Fernandez all season. He clubbed 17 home runs, third in the league, and hit .350. He struggled in some brief time at Short-A, but will likely see time there next year after doing well in Rookie Ball.
With serviceable speed and defense and a limited bat, OSA doesn't see him leaving A-ball. My scout doesn't differ. Once Franco starts facing better pitching, we can see if the scouts may be wrong in their assessments.
CF Jean Carlos Arias—Twins: Arias stole 18 of 20 bases to lead the league. He hits the ball on the ground a lot, which fueled a .322 average, and has excellent patience, giving him a .397 on-base percentage. With really good speed, those were the tools to being a top-tier stolen base threat. Arias is a good left fielder and perhaps can become a good center fielder with repetitions.
My scout and OSA differ on both Arias' current skills and future potential, though none of us think he has a world of potential. OSA sees him as someone who can be a speed-and-defense first player in the upper minors. My scout doesn't see him topping out above A-Ball. It will be important for Arias to see what he can do against better pitchers. At 19, he has time.
SS Brooks Kennedy—White Sox: Kennedy had a .412 average, 30 doubles, eight triples, played great defense, and wound up second in WAR. Kennedy was a late-round pick, 22nd round for Chicago, yet manage to outplay nearly all his peers in the league.
Kennedy is also a testament to context. At 21, Kennedy has a mature hit tool, which he used to hit .412, fueling most of his WAR. He was simply more talented relative to his peers. Unlike Zach Gahagan, he doesn't project to have a major league future though. Kennedy offers plus speed and strong defensive versatility. He has tools to be decent in both the infield and the outfield, plus has experience at center field and shortstop. Those secondary tools may allow him to reach Double-A, maybe. Aside from that, he doesn't have the offensive profile to hit anyplace other than against the teenage pitchers of the Dominican.
SP Joey Wentz—Padres: The 19-year old Wentz led the DSL in ERA, with a 2.02 mark. He went 6-2, walked 16 and struck out 103 in the league. Traded with others in the Dinelson Lamet deal that is looking disastrous, Wentz started off in A-Ball before going to the Dominican and dominating the league.
OSA sees a raw kid with the arm action for huge potential as a frontline pitcher. My scout sees a mostly polished pitcher way more advanced for Rookie Ball. Considering how advanced Wentz' command looked in Rookie Ball, the Padres may want to find another arm with huge potential since OSA may not have the best evaluators looking at the kid.
SP Brailyn Marquez—Cubs: Marquez led the league in strikeouts, and as a result, in WAR, with 2.5. With a 4.40 ERA, he didn't have the best season. He was first in strikeouts, but also was top 10 in innings, and also walks. Mostly, he just pitched a lot as the Cubs mostly went with four arms this season. Still, 111 strikeouts is impressive, no matter the circumstances.
My scout has Marquez clocked a bit harder than OSA, which means he was probably overwhelming hitters with a low-90's heater. Everyone agrees he gets good downward break, though doesn't have great control. OSA sees Marquez really honing his control, enough to be a good Triple-A starter, perhaps even a fringe big leaguer. My scout doesn't see the control coming around, with Marquez likely topping out at Triple-A. At 18 years old, he has a lot of strikeouts ahead of him to change people's minds.
SP Jake Godfrey—Orioles: Godfrey was popped in the 7th round by Baltimore and turned in a strong season. He led the league in wins with eight, had 92 strikeouts, and accumulated 2.2 WAR. His 8-2 mark was sharp, as he was the ace of a team that won its division.
My scout and OSA both agree that Gofrey was advanced for his level, with a 21-year old body, excellent control and movement, and decent control. He only has full command of his fastball and curveball at this point, but it's all he needed to mow down the DSL. My scout doesn't see a future for Gofrey, topping out at A-Ball. OSA sees a big two-seam fastball and curveball combo that will have him in the middle of a rotation. A smart kid who works hard and has had early success, it wouldn't be surprising if he reached that potential.
RP Tyler Johnson—Orioles: Johnson was the leader in saves with 24. No other pitcher had more than 19. Johnson had a sparkling 1.31 ERA, didn't allow a home run, and struck out 60 in 34.1 innings. He put up a 1.4 WAR and achieved his success despite a .441 BABIP. Johnson was actually drafted a round earlier than Godfrey as Baltimore popped him in round 6 of this year's draft.
Johnson is similar to Godfrey in that he was 21 years old and advanced for the league. With a fastball at 97, and a two-seamer in the mid-90s, Johnson overpowered the league with his stuff. He didn't have the best control, but the DSR was probably not a challenge for him. Both my scout and OSA see big stuff and some control problems. If his changeup comes along, he could be pitching in the majors, but if not, he'll be a Triple-A player.
C Connor Wong—Twins: Twins is the highest draft pick to spend significant time in the DSL, getting popped with the first pick in the 3rd round. However, he's only mustered 19 plate appearances and one start despite being a third round pick. He's hitting .333 with five walks, he just can't see the field.
Both my scout and OSA have Mateo as an advanced bat for Rookie Ball. OSA thinks he'll be an impact bat in the majors, while my scout sees him as a Triple-A bat. Wong also offers defensive flexibility and can be competent at all eight spots on the diamond. His makeup is also off the charts. This just leads to a bummer of a feeling as it seems like Wong wasted a season.
RF K.J. Bryant—Cubs: After Wong, the few players drafted who played in the DSL were effective. Bryant was picked in Round 6. He's 21, with both OSA and my scout agreeing that Bryant is an advanced bat. Bryant had an .812 OPS and would have likely tore up the league had he played often. Except he started zero games. Bryant only had 28 plate appearances despite a healthy season, which saw him fail to develop.
My scout sees Bryant as a steady defensive player with good speed, who can play in the upper minors. OSA sees someone with less speed but is more polished of an outfielder, and who can play in the majors. Unfortunately, he's still a major question mark because he didn't play.
SP Jordan Butler—Tigers: Butler worked 62 innings this year, pitching to a 6.24 ERA. He walked 33 and struck out 58, highlighting his talent, but also his total lack of control. With a .410 BABIP against him, Butler's WHIP was almost 2.
Both OSA and my scout see Butler as extremely raw, and he's only 18 years old. Each thinks Butler has some potential to make it to the majors, but it will take a world of patience and growing pains as Butler learns to work through his kinks.
SP Conor Grady—Indians: The next pitcher selected after Tyler Johnson, Grady had a rough go in the DSL, working to a 2-5 record and under 5 innings pitched a start, with a 7.65 ERA. The 18 year old wasn't ready for the workload suffering from dead arm at the end of the year. Like Butler, Grady got some strikeouts, but horrible command and a horrible defense collaborated to get him to a 1.99 WHIP. Grady kept the ball in the park—only four home runs—and struck out 65 in 57.2 innings, so there's a silver lining at least.
Grady is incredibly raw and just learning a changeup, one reason for his struggles. It's no surprise he went through this, though seeing that many runs score on you could hurt his psyche. My scout doesn't see Grady getting past Triple-A, but OSA sees a big league future if Grady can eventually harness his changeup. Good luck.