2024 West Indies Short League Stars and Disappointment
Nov 21, 2020 17:48:50 GMT -5
sfdave and brewersgm like this
Post by Commissioner Erick on Nov 21, 2020 17:48:50 GMT -5
There were a lot of good players to pass through the West Indies this year, particularly in the Brewers and Twins system. There weren't too many disappointments as many of the top draft picks to move into the league had strong seasons. Here are the details.
C: Joel Davis—Twins
A 6-4 Catcher, Davis just finished his fourth season in Grenada after being drafted in fifth round in 2021. He’s improved every season, and just finished a tremendous campaign where he hit .345 and produced 2.9 WAR with 10 home runs and 51 driven in.
Davis has a good eye, a good glove, and some gap power, but likely profiles as a Triple-A Catcher. Nearly fully developed, there’s no need for him to spend more time in the low minors and should spend next year in High-A or Double-A.
LF: Bill Pollard—Brewers
A sixth rounder this year, Pollard led the league in RBIs and OPS, earning a promotion before the year was up. His 64 RBIs led the league and Pollard didn’t even play in the Caribbean full time. Pollard did struggle in his brief stay in Wisconsin with a .174 average, but after such a strong stint in Dominica, it should be his home next year.
OSA thinks Pollard may have a big-league future. He’s got a big arm, a decent bat, and can run the bases. He’s also pretty developed, meaning he should be in A-Ball. Bill Schmidt isn’t as high on the bat, seeing a Triple-A player at best. However, Schmidt doesn’t see Pollard as very developed, something Pollard’s trip through the West Indies may have disproven. OSA at this point appears to be the scout to bet on.
SS: Sergio Valenzuela—Royals
A 16th-round pick in 2021, Valenzuela turned in a special year in Puerto Rico. He hit .331 with a .435 on-base percentage and a 6.1 Zone Rating despite 15 errors. That ability to get on base and run balls down resulted in 3.3 WAR, which led the league. After a strong campaign in Burlington the year prior, it was the second straight strong year for the Mexican native.
Valenzuela’s reasonably developed, so he should spend his age-23 season in a full-time league. He’s got a decent eye and good doubles pop for the low minors, and while his glove isn’t steady, he can get to nearly anything hit to the left side. There’s likely only Double-A upside, but his range may bring some fans to the park in places like Arkansas, Wilmington, and Lexington.
1B: Mike Realmuto—Brewers
A 14th-round pick out of North High School in 2021, Realmuto hit in two seasons in two different Rookie Leagues, then continued to hit last year in Dominica. He hit .297, clubbed 17 doubles, bashed 13 home runs, and scored a league-leading 71 times.
A hulking 6-7, Realmuto can’t move and may eventually be a Designated Hitter long term. OSA sees a batter who can hold his own in the bigs, with a good eye that will make his bat play up. OSA also sees his bat as pretty developed, meaning Realmuto should probably be in Double-A next year if not Triple-A. Bill Schmidt sees a little less power, but a quicker bat, though he also feels Realmuto is a little less developed. Nonetheless, Realmuto had a great year last year and has a future, which is a huge hit in the 14th Round.
CF: Jorge Villafane—Reds
Villafane led the West Indies in Stolen Bases last year, swiping 20 in 32 attempts. A discovery in the Dominican Republic after the 2020 season, Villafane hit better in Rookie Ball in 2023 than he did in Cuba. Villafane had three home runs, more than the goose egg he had the year prior, and he increased his doubles from 11 to 16, but his average dropped nearly 50 points and he had roughly the same walk number with 43 more strikeouts. He ran more and he fielder better, but he struggled at the plate.
No scout sees Villafane with much upside. He has a light bat that doesn’t make strong contact, even in the low minors. He’s probably best as a fourth outfielder in Cuba, and will struggle to make it above A-Ball.
SS: Jean Cruz—Brewers
Cruz has been in the Brewers’ minor league system his entire career, and just turned in the best Zone Rating in the West Indies Short League with an even 10.0. Cruz has generally been in Rookie Ball, but excelled there in 2021 and 2023, proving he was too good and too old for the level. However, his trip to full season ball in 2022 was a disaster, where he posted a .448 OPS for Wisconsin in the Midwest League.
Short-A was just right for Cruz as he hit .288 with his great defense. There’s no real future for him professionally, so he can either be a backup in A-Ball, or a good starter in Low-A, depending on what Milwaukee prefers.
P: Tyler Miles—Brewers
Miles led the Caribbean with a 1.45 ERA that was miles better than anyone else. The fourth round Arizona JuCo product out of last year’s draft, Miles was relatively developed and it showed. He throws a fastball, splitter, and forkball that are advanced for short-season ball, and also a curveball and changeup that play with hitters too.
OSA sees a lefty on a major league path, and Bill Schmidt thinks he can get there too. Both scouts see a little bit of home run luck last year, but think it’s worth seeing if Miles can conquer full-season ball as readily as he did short-season ball. The Brewers have already preemptively assigned him to Wisconsin for next season.
P: T.J. Dulmage—Royals
Taken in the second-to-last round in 2020, Dulmage produced 20 saves last year to lead the league. He produced a 1.88 ERA and whiffed 54 in 38.1 innings. Dulmage features three pitches and good stamina, so he may eventually return to the starting rotation where he pitched in High School, but he’s been far better as a reliever than a starter.
Dulmage’s stuff is too good for the low minors, so he should be in A-Ball next year, especially if he remains in the pen. There likely isn’t any major league future for him, but getting some production in the low minors isn’t the worst thing from a 29th round pick.
P: Sergio Toledo—Twins
Toledo was old for Short-A, 25, and was demonstrably too good for the league. He produced a 1.95 ERA, which was second, and 105 strikeouts in 83 innings. That led to a 3.5 WAR to top the West Indies Short League. Toledo was also strong in prior season in Rookie Ball and needs a tough challenge.
Toledo throws four pitches, including a strong Slider, which Low-A hitters couldn’t touch. He’ll hang pitches and his fastball is straight, preventing him from having a major league future. Minnesota has placed Toledo on their Grand Rapids squad in the Midwest League, which is a more appropriate destination for a man his age and talent level.
P: Juan Carpio—White Sox
Carpio has been pitching in the low minors since 2021 after being discovered in the Dominican Republic in 2019. He had a strong year for Haiti in 2022 when he put up a 2.50 ERA, before leading the league in Innings this year. Carpio kept the ball in the park reasonably well, issuing only eight home runs, leading to a 3.32 ERA.
Carpia does not have a future even in the upper minors as his stuff is flat and revolves around an early breaking, upper-80s Cutter. Carpio is still young, but should not be on the team after minor league free agency comes up.
P: Luis Aguilar—Royals
Aguilar pitched last year as a 21-year-old and led the league in holds. He produced a terrific 1.39 ERA and struck out 61 batters in 51.2 innings in relief. This comes on the heels of a solid year in Burlington the year prior where he posted an even 3.00 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 24 innings.
A scouting discovery out of the Dominican Republic back in 2019, Aguilar has upper minors potential if he can develop his changeup. His fastball is straight which holds him back, but it’s at least a live one that can miss bats. Both Schmidt and OSA expect Aguilar to be in Low-A next year.
P: Ferdinand Lemstra—Brewers
Lemstra was the only pitcher in the league to throw a Complete Game, as he pitched a No-Hitter against Trinidad last year. Lemstra was good in his other starts as well, going 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA. With only three homers issued in 58.2 innings.
Lemstra was a second rounder last year and has a bright future. Bill Schmidt likes his stuff as Lemstra’s cutter, splitter, and forkball are all pretty well developed and could get better. He sees a pitcher who can work in the back of a rotation or be a good reliever. OSA sees a mid-rotation arm as they really are fond of Lemstra’s cutter. The 22-year-old has been assigned to Wisconsin to begin next year.
3B Eddie Cooney—Brewers
Milwaukee’s fifth round pick last year out of Heartland Community College, Cooney had a rough time of it as a professional. He hit just .209 with two home runs in 33 games, fracturing his arm for good measure. Cooney showed some speed, stealing three bases, but struck out more than once a game.
OSA sees a player with some pop who can hold his own at any non-premium defensive spot. With above average speed, if the glove is a plus, he can be a second-division starter at Second Base, Third Base, or Right Field. Bill Schmidt doesn’t quite see the power, leaving him a Triple-A player, but does like the flexibility. With a little bit of development, especially as a right-handed hitter, Cooney could be a PBA-caliber hitter. Until then, repeating the level may be best.
CF: Terrance Lucas—Reds
Lucas was just about the worst player in the league last year as the 2023 16th rounder put up an appalling -2.3 WAR. After going 3-22 with no walks and 10 strikeouts for Aruba last year in the WBC, Lucas went to Cuba and hit .220 with a .265 OBP and a .280 SLG. He attempted to steal 12 times, succeeding just twice. He struck out 62 times and walked just 16. He produced -13.3 WAR at Second Base, committing 16 errors. With a lack of adaptability and leadership, he couldn’t adjust to playing the infield.
Lucas actually doesn’t have the bleakest outlook. Bill Schmidt likes his swing and his gap power, and can imagine Lucas being a decent defender when back in the outfield. OSA is less rosy, and doesn’t see Lucas past Double-A. Either way, Lucas is still extremely young and can use another year of development in Short-A—preferably not at Second Base.
P: Juan Ojeda—Angels
A scouting discovery out of the DR in 2020, Ojeda has been a disaster as a pro. He’s never produced positive WAR and has -5.4 for his career. Last year, he went 0-3 with a 14.01 ERA, for a -1.8 WAR season. Command was Ojeda’s biggest issue as he walked 55 in 53.1 innings, with just 28 strikeouts.
Both OSA and Bill Schmidt see Ojeda as one of the worst players in the minors, with no hope of being more than a pinata on the mound. The Angels should cut back and explore other options.
P: Miguel Meza—Reds
The Reds were lost in a meza whenever Miguel took the mound. The former Cuban League pitcher found himself back in his home country last year, but things did not go well. He put up an 8.33 ERA in 33 games a year after he produced a 14.05 mark in 47 appearances.
Meza was cut from a Cuban League team once, so he doesn’t have much of a professional future. It’s a nice story that he can pitch in front of friends and family in his home country so there’s reason for keeping him aboard, but it might be more wise for the Reds to cut bait and see if a Cuban team could snap Meza up instead.
C: Joel Davis—Twins
A 6-4 Catcher, Davis just finished his fourth season in Grenada after being drafted in fifth round in 2021. He’s improved every season, and just finished a tremendous campaign where he hit .345 and produced 2.9 WAR with 10 home runs and 51 driven in.
Davis has a good eye, a good glove, and some gap power, but likely profiles as a Triple-A Catcher. Nearly fully developed, there’s no need for him to spend more time in the low minors and should spend next year in High-A or Double-A.
LF: Bill Pollard—Brewers
A sixth rounder this year, Pollard led the league in RBIs and OPS, earning a promotion before the year was up. His 64 RBIs led the league and Pollard didn’t even play in the Caribbean full time. Pollard did struggle in his brief stay in Wisconsin with a .174 average, but after such a strong stint in Dominica, it should be his home next year.
OSA thinks Pollard may have a big-league future. He’s got a big arm, a decent bat, and can run the bases. He’s also pretty developed, meaning he should be in A-Ball. Bill Schmidt isn’t as high on the bat, seeing a Triple-A player at best. However, Schmidt doesn’t see Pollard as very developed, something Pollard’s trip through the West Indies may have disproven. OSA at this point appears to be the scout to bet on.
SS: Sergio Valenzuela—Royals
A 16th-round pick in 2021, Valenzuela turned in a special year in Puerto Rico. He hit .331 with a .435 on-base percentage and a 6.1 Zone Rating despite 15 errors. That ability to get on base and run balls down resulted in 3.3 WAR, which led the league. After a strong campaign in Burlington the year prior, it was the second straight strong year for the Mexican native.
Valenzuela’s reasonably developed, so he should spend his age-23 season in a full-time league. He’s got a decent eye and good doubles pop for the low minors, and while his glove isn’t steady, he can get to nearly anything hit to the left side. There’s likely only Double-A upside, but his range may bring some fans to the park in places like Arkansas, Wilmington, and Lexington.
1B: Mike Realmuto—Brewers
A 14th-round pick out of North High School in 2021, Realmuto hit in two seasons in two different Rookie Leagues, then continued to hit last year in Dominica. He hit .297, clubbed 17 doubles, bashed 13 home runs, and scored a league-leading 71 times.
A hulking 6-7, Realmuto can’t move and may eventually be a Designated Hitter long term. OSA sees a batter who can hold his own in the bigs, with a good eye that will make his bat play up. OSA also sees his bat as pretty developed, meaning Realmuto should probably be in Double-A next year if not Triple-A. Bill Schmidt sees a little less power, but a quicker bat, though he also feels Realmuto is a little less developed. Nonetheless, Realmuto had a great year last year and has a future, which is a huge hit in the 14th Round.
CF: Jorge Villafane—Reds
Villafane led the West Indies in Stolen Bases last year, swiping 20 in 32 attempts. A discovery in the Dominican Republic after the 2020 season, Villafane hit better in Rookie Ball in 2023 than he did in Cuba. Villafane had three home runs, more than the goose egg he had the year prior, and he increased his doubles from 11 to 16, but his average dropped nearly 50 points and he had roughly the same walk number with 43 more strikeouts. He ran more and he fielder better, but he struggled at the plate.
No scout sees Villafane with much upside. He has a light bat that doesn’t make strong contact, even in the low minors. He’s probably best as a fourth outfielder in Cuba, and will struggle to make it above A-Ball.
SS: Jean Cruz—Brewers
Cruz has been in the Brewers’ minor league system his entire career, and just turned in the best Zone Rating in the West Indies Short League with an even 10.0. Cruz has generally been in Rookie Ball, but excelled there in 2021 and 2023, proving he was too good and too old for the level. However, his trip to full season ball in 2022 was a disaster, where he posted a .448 OPS for Wisconsin in the Midwest League.
Short-A was just right for Cruz as he hit .288 with his great defense. There’s no real future for him professionally, so he can either be a backup in A-Ball, or a good starter in Low-A, depending on what Milwaukee prefers.
P: Tyler Miles—Brewers
Miles led the Caribbean with a 1.45 ERA that was miles better than anyone else. The fourth round Arizona JuCo product out of last year’s draft, Miles was relatively developed and it showed. He throws a fastball, splitter, and forkball that are advanced for short-season ball, and also a curveball and changeup that play with hitters too.
OSA sees a lefty on a major league path, and Bill Schmidt thinks he can get there too. Both scouts see a little bit of home run luck last year, but think it’s worth seeing if Miles can conquer full-season ball as readily as he did short-season ball. The Brewers have already preemptively assigned him to Wisconsin for next season.
P: T.J. Dulmage—Royals
Taken in the second-to-last round in 2020, Dulmage produced 20 saves last year to lead the league. He produced a 1.88 ERA and whiffed 54 in 38.1 innings. Dulmage features three pitches and good stamina, so he may eventually return to the starting rotation where he pitched in High School, but he’s been far better as a reliever than a starter.
Dulmage’s stuff is too good for the low minors, so he should be in A-Ball next year, especially if he remains in the pen. There likely isn’t any major league future for him, but getting some production in the low minors isn’t the worst thing from a 29th round pick.
P: Sergio Toledo—Twins
Toledo was old for Short-A, 25, and was demonstrably too good for the league. He produced a 1.95 ERA, which was second, and 105 strikeouts in 83 innings. That led to a 3.5 WAR to top the West Indies Short League. Toledo was also strong in prior season in Rookie Ball and needs a tough challenge.
Toledo throws four pitches, including a strong Slider, which Low-A hitters couldn’t touch. He’ll hang pitches and his fastball is straight, preventing him from having a major league future. Minnesota has placed Toledo on their Grand Rapids squad in the Midwest League, which is a more appropriate destination for a man his age and talent level.
P: Juan Carpio—White Sox
Carpio has been pitching in the low minors since 2021 after being discovered in the Dominican Republic in 2019. He had a strong year for Haiti in 2022 when he put up a 2.50 ERA, before leading the league in Innings this year. Carpio kept the ball in the park reasonably well, issuing only eight home runs, leading to a 3.32 ERA.
Carpia does not have a future even in the upper minors as his stuff is flat and revolves around an early breaking, upper-80s Cutter. Carpio is still young, but should not be on the team after minor league free agency comes up.
P: Luis Aguilar—Royals
Aguilar pitched last year as a 21-year-old and led the league in holds. He produced a terrific 1.39 ERA and struck out 61 batters in 51.2 innings in relief. This comes on the heels of a solid year in Burlington the year prior where he posted an even 3.00 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 24 innings.
A scouting discovery out of the Dominican Republic back in 2019, Aguilar has upper minors potential if he can develop his changeup. His fastball is straight which holds him back, but it’s at least a live one that can miss bats. Both Schmidt and OSA expect Aguilar to be in Low-A next year.
P: Ferdinand Lemstra—Brewers
Lemstra was the only pitcher in the league to throw a Complete Game, as he pitched a No-Hitter against Trinidad last year. Lemstra was good in his other starts as well, going 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA. With only three homers issued in 58.2 innings.
Lemstra was a second rounder last year and has a bright future. Bill Schmidt likes his stuff as Lemstra’s cutter, splitter, and forkball are all pretty well developed and could get better. He sees a pitcher who can work in the back of a rotation or be a good reliever. OSA sees a mid-rotation arm as they really are fond of Lemstra’s cutter. The 22-year-old has been assigned to Wisconsin to begin next year.
3B Eddie Cooney—Brewers
Milwaukee’s fifth round pick last year out of Heartland Community College, Cooney had a rough time of it as a professional. He hit just .209 with two home runs in 33 games, fracturing his arm for good measure. Cooney showed some speed, stealing three bases, but struck out more than once a game.
OSA sees a player with some pop who can hold his own at any non-premium defensive spot. With above average speed, if the glove is a plus, he can be a second-division starter at Second Base, Third Base, or Right Field. Bill Schmidt doesn’t quite see the power, leaving him a Triple-A player, but does like the flexibility. With a little bit of development, especially as a right-handed hitter, Cooney could be a PBA-caliber hitter. Until then, repeating the level may be best.
CF: Terrance Lucas—Reds
Lucas was just about the worst player in the league last year as the 2023 16th rounder put up an appalling -2.3 WAR. After going 3-22 with no walks and 10 strikeouts for Aruba last year in the WBC, Lucas went to Cuba and hit .220 with a .265 OBP and a .280 SLG. He attempted to steal 12 times, succeeding just twice. He struck out 62 times and walked just 16. He produced -13.3 WAR at Second Base, committing 16 errors. With a lack of adaptability and leadership, he couldn’t adjust to playing the infield.
Lucas actually doesn’t have the bleakest outlook. Bill Schmidt likes his swing and his gap power, and can imagine Lucas being a decent defender when back in the outfield. OSA is less rosy, and doesn’t see Lucas past Double-A. Either way, Lucas is still extremely young and can use another year of development in Short-A—preferably not at Second Base.
P: Juan Ojeda—Angels
A scouting discovery out of the DR in 2020, Ojeda has been a disaster as a pro. He’s never produced positive WAR and has -5.4 for his career. Last year, he went 0-3 with a 14.01 ERA, for a -1.8 WAR season. Command was Ojeda’s biggest issue as he walked 55 in 53.1 innings, with just 28 strikeouts.
Both OSA and Bill Schmidt see Ojeda as one of the worst players in the minors, with no hope of being more than a pinata on the mound. The Angels should cut back and explore other options.
P: Miguel Meza—Reds
The Reds were lost in a meza whenever Miguel took the mound. The former Cuban League pitcher found himself back in his home country last year, but things did not go well. He put up an 8.33 ERA in 33 games a year after he produced a 14.05 mark in 47 appearances.
Meza was cut from a Cuban League team once, so he doesn’t have much of a professional future. It’s a nice story that he can pitch in front of friends and family in his home country so there’s reason for keeping him aboard, but it might be more wise for the Reds to cut bait and see if a Cuban team could snap Meza up instead.