Post by Commissioner Erick on Oct 19, 2017 18:23:37 GMT -5
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
On its surface, the Wild Card Game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Pittsburgh Pirates seems like a total rout. The Dodgers were tied for the third best record in baseball, and are second in both Pythagorean record as well as Base Runs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates limped to the finish line, playing only .500 ball. They won 91 games, but Base Runs have them as a 82-80 team that overperformed by nine wins.
Also, the Dodgers are reasonably healthy while the Pirates are suffering injuries to many key players. They'll be without a number of pitchers, straining their bullpen, and several position players. This makes the Wild Card Game a real David vs Goliath story.
Pirates Hitting vs Dodgers Pitching:
Clayton Kershaw led the National League in ERA, FIP, K-BB%, and WAR. He was in the top three in strikeouts, strikeout rate, and WHIP. Many believe he's the best pitcher in baseball. This is the man a beat-up Pirates team must defeat.
The Pirates are a team with a very idiosyncratic style. They're dead last in baseball in home runs, and third from the bottom in iolsated slugging percentage. They don't have a ton of pop. However, they were second in on base percentage and second in strikeout rate. They make a lot of contact, are willing to work at bats, and hit for a high average. Their best hitter this year is Josh Harrison, a man who hit .331. He knocked in 100 runs with only 12 long balls. The Pirates are strange.
Kevin Newman is banged up, but will give it a go. Newman had a .736 OPS this season, but is dealing with a strained hamstring. He only had a .633 OPS against lefties though, which is a strange split for a right-hander. If he can't go, Christian Adames has been an offensive non-entity, while Jung-ho Kang has been a disaster this year, and Alen Hanson would be stretched at shortstop. It's not a strong group.
The Pirates will also be without Gregory Polanco. Eury Perez would likely get the start in his stead. Perez did hit lefties to a tune of .403, but it was in only 56 plate appearances. Scouts don't think of him as more than a runner and a fielder.
Francisco Cervelli is also out. Chris Stewart has starting and put up a sub .600 OPS in 229 plate appearances, while Elias Dias put up a .656 OPS in his games.
There are a lot of non-entities that will take up space at the bottom of the lineup for the Pirates.
What they will have, though, is a lot of right-handed hitters. Andrew McCutchen had a 155 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this year, fifth in the league among National Leaguers with 100+ plate appearances. David Freese had a .298 average with five home runs against lefties this year. Josh Bell didn't do great against lefties, but led the team in OBP, runs, and was second in home runs.
The path to runs for the Pirates is to hope the top of the lineup can slap the ball around and score a couple of runs with their righties getting hits against Kershaw. It's just so difficult to make that work against a pitcher as precise as him.
The Dodgers' bullpen is also elite. Even with Kenley Jansen out for the season, and 101-strikeout Pedro Baez out for the game, the Dodgers have weapons in the pen.
Josh Fields had 11 saves and a 2.01 ERA, taking over after Jansen went down. Chris Hatcher struck out 108 in 86.2 innings. Sergio Romo had a WHIP under 1.00. He gave up some long balls, but that may not be a concern against the Pirates.
The problem is that everyone else in the bullpen tilts left-handed, which while they're talented, may not be as important this game. The Dodgers are hoping Kershaw can make them irrelevant anyway.
Dodgers Hitting vs Pirates Pitching:
It's not completely clear who will start for the Pirates. It most likely will be Gerrit Cole, but he's thrown a lot of pitches recently and coaches don't feel he's fully recovered. Ivan Nova will likely get the start if Cole can't go, but the assumption is Cole will pitch.
Cole was solid for the Pirates, working over 200 innings and going 17-7 with a 3.54 ERA. Not a huge strikeout pitcher, he kept the ball in the park, allowing fewer than a home run per nine innings. He combined that with a solid walk rate of 5.5%. In his two starts this year against the Dodgers, he worked 13 innings combined. In his first start, he walked a couple, only fanned three, but allowed only four hits and one run in 7 innings. Later in the year, he worked 6 innings, walking nobody and fanning seven. He allowed three runs on seven hits though.
It's a strange stat line that won't be helped by the defense. Pittsburgh rates as a pretty poor defensive team across the board. They committed errors, they weren't good in zone rating, they allowed stolen bases, and they were suboptimal everywhere except with Gregory Polanco, who is hurt. Cole will need to be sharp to overcome that.
The Dodgers' offense ranked third in the NL in runs, and they have a very dynamic team. Corey Seager would be the MVP if not for Bryce Harper's superhuman campaign. Seager's .363 average led baseball, as did his 60 doubles. Seager was second in wOBA, showing how strong his hitting was. Seager was even fifth in K%, combing with his average to showcase what a tremendous hit tool he possesses.
The Dodgers have surrounded Seager with a host of players possessing good batting average or on base skills and very good power. Joc Pederson blasted 32 home runs, while also possessing the fifth highest walk rate in the league. Justin Turner had a .288 average with 26 home runs. Yasiel Puig had similar power numbers but with a slightly worse average. Logan Forsythe had a similar average with slightly worse power numbers.
It's a very deep team, which is why the Dodgers were second in the National League in wOBA. Even unheralded guys like Logan Forsythe can draw a walk and hit 20 home runs, while AJ Pollock can hit .273 with double figure home runs, double figure steals, and a very good strikeout rate. The Dodgers bat-to-ball skills will be beneficial against the Pirates defense.
Pittsburgh's bullpen has been pretty good this year. Felipe Rivero has been solid as a closer, and is second in the league in saves. He strikes out a ton of batters, but also walks a bunch, and while he's very good, that keeps him out of the upper tier. Antonio Bastardo is the other left-hander, and he's been excellent, working to a 3.18 ERA. He has an elbow strain though, which puts his availability and effectiveness in question.
Edgar Santana has been interesting. He spent most of the year in Triple A walking most guys, and striking out the rest. He's been similar as part of the big club. Between the two levels he allowed only three home runs, but he walked 50 guys in 77 innings, which is ulcer-inducing.
All the dedicated relievers are wild for Pittsburgh. Some will mitigate it by striking guys out, some will mitigate it by keeping the ball in the park, and AJ Schugel will mitigate it by somehow overperforming his FIP by over a run.
The Dodgers have the righty/lefty balance to make things tough on a pen, and also the hitters who can wait out a wild bullpen and smash the good pitches to hit. They should be able to score some runs.
Season Series:
The Pirates won the season series 4-3.
In May, Jung-ho Kang's only good game of the season so him blast two home runs off Rich Hill in a 6-2 win. Gerrit Cole had his 7 inning start allowing only one run. The next day, the Pirates lit up Scott Kazmir for nine runs in a 9-3 Pirates win. The Dodgers got unearned runs in both losses highlighting some shaky Pittsburgh defense, but the Dodgers only had six hits in each. Clayton Kershaw restored order to Pittsburgh with 8 shutout innings as the Dodgers took the finale 3-0.
In August the two teams split four games in Pittsburgh. Logan Forsythe had four hits, Ivan Nova and Daniel Hudson combined to walk seven hitters in eight innings, Ross Stripling was solid through 6, and the Dodgers blasted the Pirates 8-1 in the opener. The following day, Cole was solid through 6, the bullpen didn't walk anyone—and subsequently didn't allow a run—for three innings, the Pirates again knocked Kazmir out early, and a Josh Bell leadoff triple in the eighth inning resulted in the Pirates taking a 4-3 win.
Clayton Kershaw allowed only one run through 8 innings the following day, the Dodgers bullpen was perfect for 3 innings, and despite the Pirates bullpen again not walking anybody through 4 innings, AJ Schugel gave up an RBI double to Seager in the eleventh to give the Dodgers a 2-1 win.
The rubber game was the craziest game, with the lead changing three times over the final three half innings. Despite Felipe Rivero blowing the save after walking the leadoff man in the ninth, the Pirates hit three home runs over the eighth and ninth to take and retake the lead, winning on a Josh Harrison bomb off Clay Holmes.
The lessons are that the Pirates bullpen was good when they did not walk anyone, they found ways to win when Gerrit Cole was on the mound, and they did their best work against lefties. However, the Dodgers got great performances from Seager, mostly good bullpen work, and dominated when Kershaw was on the mound
Deciding Questions:
Can the Pirates success against lefties translate to success against Kershaw?
Can the Pirates defense back up Cole?
Will the Pirates bullpen suffer from a lack of control?
Prediction: Kershaw rocks, the Dodgers do enough against Pittsburgh's pitching, and win a fairly uneventful game 6-1.
On its surface, the Wild Card Game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Pittsburgh Pirates seems like a total rout. The Dodgers were tied for the third best record in baseball, and are second in both Pythagorean record as well as Base Runs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates limped to the finish line, playing only .500 ball. They won 91 games, but Base Runs have them as a 82-80 team that overperformed by nine wins.
Also, the Dodgers are reasonably healthy while the Pirates are suffering injuries to many key players. They'll be without a number of pitchers, straining their bullpen, and several position players. This makes the Wild Card Game a real David vs Goliath story.
Pirates Hitting vs Dodgers Pitching:
Clayton Kershaw led the National League in ERA, FIP, K-BB%, and WAR. He was in the top three in strikeouts, strikeout rate, and WHIP. Many believe he's the best pitcher in baseball. This is the man a beat-up Pirates team must defeat.
The Pirates are a team with a very idiosyncratic style. They're dead last in baseball in home runs, and third from the bottom in iolsated slugging percentage. They don't have a ton of pop. However, they were second in on base percentage and second in strikeout rate. They make a lot of contact, are willing to work at bats, and hit for a high average. Their best hitter this year is Josh Harrison, a man who hit .331. He knocked in 100 runs with only 12 long balls. The Pirates are strange.
Kevin Newman is banged up, but will give it a go. Newman had a .736 OPS this season, but is dealing with a strained hamstring. He only had a .633 OPS against lefties though, which is a strange split for a right-hander. If he can't go, Christian Adames has been an offensive non-entity, while Jung-ho Kang has been a disaster this year, and Alen Hanson would be stretched at shortstop. It's not a strong group.
The Pirates will also be without Gregory Polanco. Eury Perez would likely get the start in his stead. Perez did hit lefties to a tune of .403, but it was in only 56 plate appearances. Scouts don't think of him as more than a runner and a fielder.
Francisco Cervelli is also out. Chris Stewart has starting and put up a sub .600 OPS in 229 plate appearances, while Elias Dias put up a .656 OPS in his games.
There are a lot of non-entities that will take up space at the bottom of the lineup for the Pirates.
What they will have, though, is a lot of right-handed hitters. Andrew McCutchen had a 155 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this year, fifth in the league among National Leaguers with 100+ plate appearances. David Freese had a .298 average with five home runs against lefties this year. Josh Bell didn't do great against lefties, but led the team in OBP, runs, and was second in home runs.
The path to runs for the Pirates is to hope the top of the lineup can slap the ball around and score a couple of runs with their righties getting hits against Kershaw. It's just so difficult to make that work against a pitcher as precise as him.
The Dodgers' bullpen is also elite. Even with Kenley Jansen out for the season, and 101-strikeout Pedro Baez out for the game, the Dodgers have weapons in the pen.
Josh Fields had 11 saves and a 2.01 ERA, taking over after Jansen went down. Chris Hatcher struck out 108 in 86.2 innings. Sergio Romo had a WHIP under 1.00. He gave up some long balls, but that may not be a concern against the Pirates.
The problem is that everyone else in the bullpen tilts left-handed, which while they're talented, may not be as important this game. The Dodgers are hoping Kershaw can make them irrelevant anyway.
Dodgers Hitting vs Pirates Pitching:
It's not completely clear who will start for the Pirates. It most likely will be Gerrit Cole, but he's thrown a lot of pitches recently and coaches don't feel he's fully recovered. Ivan Nova will likely get the start if Cole can't go, but the assumption is Cole will pitch.
Cole was solid for the Pirates, working over 200 innings and going 17-7 with a 3.54 ERA. Not a huge strikeout pitcher, he kept the ball in the park, allowing fewer than a home run per nine innings. He combined that with a solid walk rate of 5.5%. In his two starts this year against the Dodgers, he worked 13 innings combined. In his first start, he walked a couple, only fanned three, but allowed only four hits and one run in 7 innings. Later in the year, he worked 6 innings, walking nobody and fanning seven. He allowed three runs on seven hits though.
It's a strange stat line that won't be helped by the defense. Pittsburgh rates as a pretty poor defensive team across the board. They committed errors, they weren't good in zone rating, they allowed stolen bases, and they were suboptimal everywhere except with Gregory Polanco, who is hurt. Cole will need to be sharp to overcome that.
The Dodgers' offense ranked third in the NL in runs, and they have a very dynamic team. Corey Seager would be the MVP if not for Bryce Harper's superhuman campaign. Seager's .363 average led baseball, as did his 60 doubles. Seager was second in wOBA, showing how strong his hitting was. Seager was even fifth in K%, combing with his average to showcase what a tremendous hit tool he possesses.
The Dodgers have surrounded Seager with a host of players possessing good batting average or on base skills and very good power. Joc Pederson blasted 32 home runs, while also possessing the fifth highest walk rate in the league. Justin Turner had a .288 average with 26 home runs. Yasiel Puig had similar power numbers but with a slightly worse average. Logan Forsythe had a similar average with slightly worse power numbers.
It's a very deep team, which is why the Dodgers were second in the National League in wOBA. Even unheralded guys like Logan Forsythe can draw a walk and hit 20 home runs, while AJ Pollock can hit .273 with double figure home runs, double figure steals, and a very good strikeout rate. The Dodgers bat-to-ball skills will be beneficial against the Pirates defense.
Pittsburgh's bullpen has been pretty good this year. Felipe Rivero has been solid as a closer, and is second in the league in saves. He strikes out a ton of batters, but also walks a bunch, and while he's very good, that keeps him out of the upper tier. Antonio Bastardo is the other left-hander, and he's been excellent, working to a 3.18 ERA. He has an elbow strain though, which puts his availability and effectiveness in question.
Edgar Santana has been interesting. He spent most of the year in Triple A walking most guys, and striking out the rest. He's been similar as part of the big club. Between the two levels he allowed only three home runs, but he walked 50 guys in 77 innings, which is ulcer-inducing.
All the dedicated relievers are wild for Pittsburgh. Some will mitigate it by striking guys out, some will mitigate it by keeping the ball in the park, and AJ Schugel will mitigate it by somehow overperforming his FIP by over a run.
The Dodgers have the righty/lefty balance to make things tough on a pen, and also the hitters who can wait out a wild bullpen and smash the good pitches to hit. They should be able to score some runs.
Season Series:
The Pirates won the season series 4-3.
In May, Jung-ho Kang's only good game of the season so him blast two home runs off Rich Hill in a 6-2 win. Gerrit Cole had his 7 inning start allowing only one run. The next day, the Pirates lit up Scott Kazmir for nine runs in a 9-3 Pirates win. The Dodgers got unearned runs in both losses highlighting some shaky Pittsburgh defense, but the Dodgers only had six hits in each. Clayton Kershaw restored order to Pittsburgh with 8 shutout innings as the Dodgers took the finale 3-0.
In August the two teams split four games in Pittsburgh. Logan Forsythe had four hits, Ivan Nova and Daniel Hudson combined to walk seven hitters in eight innings, Ross Stripling was solid through 6, and the Dodgers blasted the Pirates 8-1 in the opener. The following day, Cole was solid through 6, the bullpen didn't walk anyone—and subsequently didn't allow a run—for three innings, the Pirates again knocked Kazmir out early, and a Josh Bell leadoff triple in the eighth inning resulted in the Pirates taking a 4-3 win.
Clayton Kershaw allowed only one run through 8 innings the following day, the Dodgers bullpen was perfect for 3 innings, and despite the Pirates bullpen again not walking anybody through 4 innings, AJ Schugel gave up an RBI double to Seager in the eleventh to give the Dodgers a 2-1 win.
The rubber game was the craziest game, with the lead changing three times over the final three half innings. Despite Felipe Rivero blowing the save after walking the leadoff man in the ninth, the Pirates hit three home runs over the eighth and ninth to take and retake the lead, winning on a Josh Harrison bomb off Clay Holmes.
The lessons are that the Pirates bullpen was good when they did not walk anyone, they found ways to win when Gerrit Cole was on the mound, and they did their best work against lefties. However, the Dodgers got great performances from Seager, mostly good bullpen work, and dominated when Kershaw was on the mound
Deciding Questions:
Can the Pirates success against lefties translate to success against Kershaw?
Can the Pirates defense back up Cole?
Will the Pirates bullpen suffer from a lack of control?
Prediction: Kershaw rocks, the Dodgers do enough against Pittsburgh's pitching, and win a fairly uneventful game 6-1.