Post by brewersgm on Apr 6, 2021 12:58:36 GMT -5
Toronto Blue Jays (90-72) @ Kansas City Royals (90-72)
Lineups:
Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays spent the past off-season locking up their World Series core to long term deals, so much of the 2024 World Series winning lineup remains on the team. Jake Burger, Taylor Walls, Vlad Jr., Jahmai Jones, and Kole Enright are all still here. Unfortunately for Toronto though Jones and Burger are nursing broken wrists and will not be available tonight. Those are two huge losses. Burger had a career high 156 wrC+ this season and Jones is Toronto's best outfielder and a key defensive cog in center-field.
One exception to Toronto's continuity is the addition of catcher Gary Sanchez. Sanchez was on the other side of this rivalry last year. His lone year as a Royal was the best of his career as he hit a career high 51 homers and had a career high 6 WAR. He took an O-fer in game 7 against Toronto and then signed with the Blue Jays shortly thereafter so his departure may have left a bitter taste in the mouths of Royals fans. This year though he's been a disappointment for Toronto fans. His numbers are at career lows across the board. He has put up only an 84 wrC+. Sanchez remarked "140 million," in reference to his contract's value when he was asked by the Toronto media what he thought of his performance this year.
Another big addition to Toronto's lineup has been the breakout play of 3rd year player Eric, "Rattlesnake" Drouet. The Haitian Sensation is one of the hardest players to strike out in the PBA. Drouet struck out only 20 times in 577 PA. His speed and ability to consistently put the ball in play led to him winning a batting title. The Kansas City pitching staff doesn't strike many guys out so Drouet should have a great opportunity to have an impact on this game.
Like the Jays the Royals have a lot of continuity from last season. Every regular from last season's 105 win team is back, aside from the aforementioned Gary Sanchez. Sanchez was a big loss but The Royals have been able to fill the hole he left behind with their catching tandem of Blake Hunt and Brendan Tinsman. Tinsman tore his MCL in spring training last year but he has come back this season to put up 1.3 WAR for the Royals in only 80 games. Blake Hunt, acquired from the Rays (in yet another trade between the two clubs involving Brent Honeywell) put up 2.5 WAR in only 90 games. Both catchers have also provided great defense behind the plate. Hunt in particular has one of the strongest arms in baseball, he threw out 45.7% of base-runners who attempted to steal on him this season.
Two standouts for the Royals this year were fan favorite Joe Rizzo and outfielder Khalil Lee. Joe Rizzo secured a nice extension from the Royals over the off-season and responded with a career high 34 homers. He's beloved in Kansas City, he visits the children's hospital every week and always takes pictures when he is recognized on the street. Lee had an outstanding contract year. The impending free agent put up a career high 130 wrC+ and helped steady a Royals outfield that faced injury issues to star player Jim Sattler and down years from Grant Burton and Taylor Trammell.
Looking at the bigger picture, the Royals lineup again remained at the top of the AL in many categories. They were 3rd in average, 2nd in OBP, and 2nd in OPS. However they lacked in the category that matters most, runs, finishing only 5th despite their strong lineup. According to Stats plus base runs projections they scored 60 runs less than they should have. Kansas City under-performed their Pythagorean record by 8 games and as a result find themselves in the Wild card game instead of division champs.
Blue Jays:
Toronto is a strong defensive team everywhere aside from left field and up the middle. Vlad Jr is little too big to move and cover ground in left. Drouet played passable defense at shortstop but second base was a bit of a disaster whenever Taylor Walls wasn't playing, and even Walls himself isn't much better than average. Jones is a plus defender in center field but he won't be out there today. There's room for the Royals to exploit the Blue Jays at some of most important defensive positions.
The Royals defense started off shaky but moves were made during the season to address it. JP Crawford is a great hitter for a shortstop but at this point in his career his defense isn't what it used to be. The Royals acquired Xavier Edwards to make up for this deficiency. If the Royals get a lead in the game Edwards can come in and play lock-down SS defense. Gavin Lux is a former gold glover at 2nd base and he still grades out as a plus defender. Center field defense may be a bit questionable though as the Royals won't have Humberto Camacho to spell Grant Burton late in the game. This game probably won't feature many great outfield plays with the state of these teams center fielders.
Blue Jays:
Starter:
At press time we haven't received confirmation, but the Jays look set to start lefty Thomas Szapucki. Szapucki is Toronto's #2 guy and he turned in another strong season for the team this year. He had a 88 FIP- and a great 3.5 K/BB ratio. He possesses one the best curveballs in the majors which he uses to generate a ton of ground balls. Szapucki also has an outstanding move to first. His ability to hold runners on, coupled with his ability to generate grounders means that Kansas City will have to be careful to avoid double plays. It also means that Taylor Walls and Eric Drouet will have to step up their defense for this game.
Szapucki has made one start against the Royals this year in which he went 7 IP with 4 ER. The Royals will look to repeat that performance, but as a team that employs a ton of lefty hitters they may have some trouble. It will be imperative for righty bats like Marino Campana, Joey, "Kent" Young and Blake Hunt to have good games.
Bullpen:
The Jays have had an excellent back end of the bullpen between Michael Kopech and Corey Knebel, but their middle relief has been a weakness. Signed to be a starter German Marquez found himself demoted to the middle innings. His struggles continued there, with a 5.54 ERA as a reliever. Danny Barnes is rocking a 4.80 ERA in middle relief. Travis Crombie has been a bright spot but has only given Toronto 18 innings all season. Szapucki needs to pitch long enough that the Blue Jays can skip over the middle part of their bullpen and get the ball to Knebel and Kopech.
Royals:
Starter:
On the mound for the Royals tonight will be the 6 foot 200 pounder C.J. Hoover. The Lakewood, New Jersey native is a product of the esteemed Rutgers University. Hoover was acquired by the Royals mid season in a trade with Boston. The Red Sox used him exclusively out of the pen, but since coming to Kansas City he has been used exclusively as a starter. Hoover's made 14 starts for the Royals and pitched to a 3.34 ERA. He doesn't strike many guys out with only a 6.6 K/9 but he doesn't walk many guys either and hasn't been too homer prone. His approach to pitching fits the Royals overall pitching philosophy. The Royals had the 2nd lowest ERA in the AL despite being only 13th in strikeouts thanks to players like Hoover.
However, Hoover's last two starts have been shaky. He gave up 5 earned runs to the Tigers in only 2.2 IP and 4 to the White Sox in 5.2 IP. Kansas City should be encouraged by his lone start against the Blue Jays this season in which he went 5.1 shutout innings. A repeat of that game would likely send the Royals to the ALDS. The Blue Jays are a righty heavy lineup which should theoretically play to Hoover's advantage, but he has reverse splits this season having performed better against opposite side hitters.
Bullpen:
The Royals have had an excellent bullpen this season even though RHP Addison Reed, their best reliever, has missed a lot of time. The signing of RHP Joe Shilts out of the California Penal League has been key. Shilts leads all Royals relievers with 84.2 IP and he's done that to the tune of a 2.44 ERA. Kansas City employs him as a stopper. He doesn't have a ton of stamina, but he has enough to go multiple innings and shut teams down in the late innings. If Hoover can bridge the Royals to righties Shilts and Reed, then the Royals should be in good shape to win this game.
If Tyler Lyons gets in than Royals fans should hold their breath. The lefty and blower of October's past should not appear in this game if the Royals manager bot knows what it is doing.
Each team is facing a pitcher of the handedness that they struggle with. Which team will be able to overcome their platoon disadvantage?
Toronto is missing two key hitters, can the rest of the lineup step up to replace them?