Post by Commissioner Erick on Apr 8, 2021 16:56:10 GMT -5
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers just eliminated one first-time playoff participant from the postseason in the Wild Card Round. They’ll look to do the same in the NLDS. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers will hope to make it a streak of six straight seasons of at least one team making it to the World Series after not making the playoffs the prior year.
Brewers Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
Milwaukee was third in runs scored this season, but they had a .75 point difference in their OPS against right-handers than versus left-handed pitching. They had an .841 against righties and a .766 mark against lefties. The Dodgers will likely start lefties in six of the series’ seven games, which is not what the Brewers were hoping to see and allows the Dodgers to match up.
Milwaukee can bring a number of right-handed hitters into the lineup—the issue is that the lefties they’ll replace are far better against opposite-side hitting. Danny Tammaro has a .995 OPS against righties. Will Dulihanty has an .885 OPS. Matt Aceto has a .964 OPS. Luis Rivera has a .966 OPS. All of them have an OPS of .657 or less against lefties aside from Dulihanty, whose nine walks give him a .190/.419/.333 Triple Slash in a miniscule 31 Plate Appearances. Those guys will all likely be benched against Dodgers lefties and with good reason.
Milwaukee’s flexibility and versatility allows them to survive against lefties, especially as their lineup against lefties should be slightly better defensively. However, against six potential lefties this series, a number of their best hitters will be completely neutralized, and that could be too much to overcome.
The top of the Milwaukee offense should still be fine. Greg Jacks was better against right-handed pitchers than left-handed ones, but he had an .813 OPS against southpaws. Tim Elmore slugged .713 against lefties in roughly 100 Plate Appearances. Those two should still produce. In the middle of the order, Bobby Dalbec and Mike Perches mashed lefties and can drive in runners. Catcher Elih Marrero had an .872 OPS against lefties and can get on base and drive guys in.
However, Starling Heredia had a .269 OBP against lefties and will be counted upon as a run producer. Zach Prajzner hit just .229 this year. Noah Campbell had a .593 OPS. Those players end up needing to pick up more of the slack, which could be a problem. Milwaukee will have an unbelievable bench, but they’ll need to stay within contact for it to matter.
The one thing Milwaukee will have going for them is that their lineup will be right-handed. It will be worse, but it will be right-handed. Steven Matz and Joey Wentz each allowed 21 home runs to right-handed hitters this year. Each can be taken deep, which Milwaukee’s backups can take advantage of.
Matz, Wentz, and Logan Allen also rely on the strikeout, even against righties. Milwaukee had the best strikeout rate in the league, and the Dodgers have a porous infield defense. Matz and Wentz give up a lot of fly balls, but the Brewers may be able to get base hits off Logan Allen.
The Dodgers’ bullpen is terrific and can roll with lefties to keep Milwaukee’s best hitters on the bench, or can win matchups with its righties. Osiris Ramirez, Eric Groves, Dave Robertson, and Ismael Robles struck out 10 Braves in 4 shutout innings in the Wild Card Game. Most of the Dodgers do have platoon splits, but David Robertson had a reverse split and was better against lefties, while Ismael Robles dominated everyone. Nobody in the Dodgers bullpen has higher than a career 2.81 career playoff ERA, so they can produce in big moments. Milwaukee may be able to make substitutions, but those Dodgers arms have a ton of experience shutting down exceptional hitters in key moments.
Dodgers Offense versus Brewers Pitching
Milwaukee has an outstanding run prevention unit. The club had the lowest BABIP in the league, the second-best strikeout rate, and the third lowest walk rate. The only thing their club didn’t excel in was home run rate, where they were fifth worst.
That’s good against a Dodgers team that wins less by slugging and more by getting on base and having a good batting average. The Dodgers used stolen bases to generate half their offense in the Wild Card Game, with two-singles and a sac fly accounting for their third of four runs.
Milwaukee’s staff was deep this year, but only has one standout performer, as Mike Arnold has arrived as one of the league’s brightest arms. Hawkeye, the game’s top prospect prior to 2024, has lived up to the hype, turning in an exceptional 19-3, 2.60 season in his first full big league campaign. He allowed only 16 big flies and a low BABIP resulted in a WHIP of 1.00. Hitters hit just .188 against him, and neither righties not lefties had an OPS above .600.
He’s an ace in every sense of the word, but the picture is more muddled behind him. David Meeks had a masterful 8-inning, one-hit masterpiece against the Dodgers in September, but gave up 11 runs his last two starts of the year to Atlanta and St. Louis. Which Meeks will show up?
Scruffy Andexler is a huge prospect, but he had a 5.02 ERA this year. He was better as the year progressed, but aside from a good start in September against the Braves, he struggled against the league’s top offenses. He also allowed five runs in 4.1 innings in a start in Los Angeles earlier in September.
Eddie Sherk had a solid year, but lefties do okay against him, and righties can hit for power against him. Sherk’s done well against the Dodgers though, with a pair of strong 7 inning starts this year. Whether Alex Bregman or Seiya Suzuki take him deep could be a subplot to follow.
Milwaukee’s pen is exceptional with options that can dominate against both lefties and righties. Josh Young and Sean Newcomb are the only arms who gave up more than a .711 OPS to either left-handers or right-handers. Everyone else was extremely effective against both. That means Milwaukee doesn’t have to worry about platoon-advantages as much as other teams.
Mitch Cavanagh had a .202 BABIP against him this year, which will be big against the Dodgers in long-relief. Expect him to have an effective series. As a lefty, Mark Warf should have the responsibility to navigate the heart of the Dodgers’ order in the middle innings. His sinker has resulted in a 64% ground ball rate against righties, and he’s only walked one righty. This should give him confidence to stay in and face Bregman and Suzuki.
In the late innings, Sean Newcomb is a former Reliver of the Year, and lefties haven’t hit higher than .164 against him since he became a full time reliever. He didn’t allow a homer to a lefty either this year. Against a Dodgers team with a limited bench, Newcomb could wreck them.
Finally in the ninth, Edwin Diaz is a seven-time All-Star, a two-time Reliever of the Year, and one of the best in the game. He struck out 122 in 64.2 innings, racked up 33 Saves, allowed a .200 BABIP, and continues to put up a Hall-of-Fame resume. Diaz was slightly homer prone, so the Dodgers may be able to get a solo shot if they’re down a run.
It’ll be tough for the Dodgers to really produce against the Brewers’ bullpen though. They’ll need to do their damage against the Brewers’ starters and jump early. This means that Amin Valdez and Luis Urias need to have big games. Valdez closed the year with a 13-game hitting streak and picked two more in the Wild Card Game. If he can get on base and run against a staff that doesn’t hold runners well, it could give the Dodgers early leads.
Similarly, Luis Urias hit .306 against lefties this year. He’ll need to jump on Meeks and get on base as Meeks will likely have the handedness advantage against most of the Dodgers’ best hitters. If Meeks can get Dodgers’ lefties up with no on and two outs and just take big swings pounding splitters into the ground, the Brewers could win the series going away.
Season Series
The Brewers won the season series, taking a series in Los Angeles right after the All-Star break, then splitting a series in Milwaukee in early September.
The Dodgers won the first game behind great left-handed pitching, 2-1. Eduardo Rodriguez, Eric Groves, Clayton Kershaw, and Ismael Robles combined to allow three hits, and Willie Calhoun had a walk-off single in the ninth off Blayne Enlow.
Milwaukee beat up Steven Matz in the second game for 7 runs in 2+ innings without the benefit of a home run, then beat up Joey Wentz in the finale for six runs in 2.2 innings. Starling Heredia went 4-7 with a home run and five runs scored in the two games.
In September, The Dodgers beat up Tim Kierstead and Joe Rowland in the opener scoring 16 runs in a 16-5 blowout. Steven Matz rebounded from his July outing in the second contest, allowing one run in 6 innings in a 3-1 Dodgers win. Groves and Robles had 3 shutout innings with six strikeouts in that 3-1 win.
Milwaukee won the third game with Greg Jacks and Matt Aceto driving in six. J.B. Bukauskas allowed six runs in 4.2 innings against Milwaukee’s lefty-laden lineup. David Meeks gave the Brewers the season series in the finale with a one-hit gem in 8 innings.
Key Questions
Can the Dodgers’ left-handed starters that struggle against right-handed hitters shut down Milwaukee’s’ weaker bats that will have the platoon advantage?
Can Nomar Mazara have a dominant series to overcome Milwaukee’s pitching, defense, and bullpen?
Will Milwaukee’s benched left-handers be able to produce against Los Angeles’ exceptional bullpen?
Prediction
The Dodgers are a pretty bad matchup for the Brewers, except that the Brewers are likely more talented than Los Angeles. Milwaukee should eek out enough small leads against Los Angeles’ staff then hold on in the late innings That will be the difference in a low scoring series. Brewers 4-2
The Los Angeles Dodgers just eliminated one first-time playoff participant from the postseason in the Wild Card Round. They’ll look to do the same in the NLDS. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers will hope to make it a streak of six straight seasons of at least one team making it to the World Series after not making the playoffs the prior year.
Brewers Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
Milwaukee was third in runs scored this season, but they had a .75 point difference in their OPS against right-handers than versus left-handed pitching. They had an .841 against righties and a .766 mark against lefties. The Dodgers will likely start lefties in six of the series’ seven games, which is not what the Brewers were hoping to see and allows the Dodgers to match up.
Milwaukee can bring a number of right-handed hitters into the lineup—the issue is that the lefties they’ll replace are far better against opposite-side hitting. Danny Tammaro has a .995 OPS against righties. Will Dulihanty has an .885 OPS. Matt Aceto has a .964 OPS. Luis Rivera has a .966 OPS. All of them have an OPS of .657 or less against lefties aside from Dulihanty, whose nine walks give him a .190/.419/.333 Triple Slash in a miniscule 31 Plate Appearances. Those guys will all likely be benched against Dodgers lefties and with good reason.
Milwaukee’s flexibility and versatility allows them to survive against lefties, especially as their lineup against lefties should be slightly better defensively. However, against six potential lefties this series, a number of their best hitters will be completely neutralized, and that could be too much to overcome.
The top of the Milwaukee offense should still be fine. Greg Jacks was better against right-handed pitchers than left-handed ones, but he had an .813 OPS against southpaws. Tim Elmore slugged .713 against lefties in roughly 100 Plate Appearances. Those two should still produce. In the middle of the order, Bobby Dalbec and Mike Perches mashed lefties and can drive in runners. Catcher Elih Marrero had an .872 OPS against lefties and can get on base and drive guys in.
However, Starling Heredia had a .269 OBP against lefties and will be counted upon as a run producer. Zach Prajzner hit just .229 this year. Noah Campbell had a .593 OPS. Those players end up needing to pick up more of the slack, which could be a problem. Milwaukee will have an unbelievable bench, but they’ll need to stay within contact for it to matter.
The one thing Milwaukee will have going for them is that their lineup will be right-handed. It will be worse, but it will be right-handed. Steven Matz and Joey Wentz each allowed 21 home runs to right-handed hitters this year. Each can be taken deep, which Milwaukee’s backups can take advantage of.
Matz, Wentz, and Logan Allen also rely on the strikeout, even against righties. Milwaukee had the best strikeout rate in the league, and the Dodgers have a porous infield defense. Matz and Wentz give up a lot of fly balls, but the Brewers may be able to get base hits off Logan Allen.
The Dodgers’ bullpen is terrific and can roll with lefties to keep Milwaukee’s best hitters on the bench, or can win matchups with its righties. Osiris Ramirez, Eric Groves, Dave Robertson, and Ismael Robles struck out 10 Braves in 4 shutout innings in the Wild Card Game. Most of the Dodgers do have platoon splits, but David Robertson had a reverse split and was better against lefties, while Ismael Robles dominated everyone. Nobody in the Dodgers bullpen has higher than a career 2.81 career playoff ERA, so they can produce in big moments. Milwaukee may be able to make substitutions, but those Dodgers arms have a ton of experience shutting down exceptional hitters in key moments.
Dodgers Offense versus Brewers Pitching
Milwaukee has an outstanding run prevention unit. The club had the lowest BABIP in the league, the second-best strikeout rate, and the third lowest walk rate. The only thing their club didn’t excel in was home run rate, where they were fifth worst.
That’s good against a Dodgers team that wins less by slugging and more by getting on base and having a good batting average. The Dodgers used stolen bases to generate half their offense in the Wild Card Game, with two-singles and a sac fly accounting for their third of four runs.
Milwaukee’s staff was deep this year, but only has one standout performer, as Mike Arnold has arrived as one of the league’s brightest arms. Hawkeye, the game’s top prospect prior to 2024, has lived up to the hype, turning in an exceptional 19-3, 2.60 season in his first full big league campaign. He allowed only 16 big flies and a low BABIP resulted in a WHIP of 1.00. Hitters hit just .188 against him, and neither righties not lefties had an OPS above .600.
He’s an ace in every sense of the word, but the picture is more muddled behind him. David Meeks had a masterful 8-inning, one-hit masterpiece against the Dodgers in September, but gave up 11 runs his last two starts of the year to Atlanta and St. Louis. Which Meeks will show up?
Scruffy Andexler is a huge prospect, but he had a 5.02 ERA this year. He was better as the year progressed, but aside from a good start in September against the Braves, he struggled against the league’s top offenses. He also allowed five runs in 4.1 innings in a start in Los Angeles earlier in September.
Eddie Sherk had a solid year, but lefties do okay against him, and righties can hit for power against him. Sherk’s done well against the Dodgers though, with a pair of strong 7 inning starts this year. Whether Alex Bregman or Seiya Suzuki take him deep could be a subplot to follow.
Milwaukee’s pen is exceptional with options that can dominate against both lefties and righties. Josh Young and Sean Newcomb are the only arms who gave up more than a .711 OPS to either left-handers or right-handers. Everyone else was extremely effective against both. That means Milwaukee doesn’t have to worry about platoon-advantages as much as other teams.
Mitch Cavanagh had a .202 BABIP against him this year, which will be big against the Dodgers in long-relief. Expect him to have an effective series. As a lefty, Mark Warf should have the responsibility to navigate the heart of the Dodgers’ order in the middle innings. His sinker has resulted in a 64% ground ball rate against righties, and he’s only walked one righty. This should give him confidence to stay in and face Bregman and Suzuki.
In the late innings, Sean Newcomb is a former Reliver of the Year, and lefties haven’t hit higher than .164 against him since he became a full time reliever. He didn’t allow a homer to a lefty either this year. Against a Dodgers team with a limited bench, Newcomb could wreck them.
Finally in the ninth, Edwin Diaz is a seven-time All-Star, a two-time Reliever of the Year, and one of the best in the game. He struck out 122 in 64.2 innings, racked up 33 Saves, allowed a .200 BABIP, and continues to put up a Hall-of-Fame resume. Diaz was slightly homer prone, so the Dodgers may be able to get a solo shot if they’re down a run.
It’ll be tough for the Dodgers to really produce against the Brewers’ bullpen though. They’ll need to do their damage against the Brewers’ starters and jump early. This means that Amin Valdez and Luis Urias need to have big games. Valdez closed the year with a 13-game hitting streak and picked two more in the Wild Card Game. If he can get on base and run against a staff that doesn’t hold runners well, it could give the Dodgers early leads.
Similarly, Luis Urias hit .306 against lefties this year. He’ll need to jump on Meeks and get on base as Meeks will likely have the handedness advantage against most of the Dodgers’ best hitters. If Meeks can get Dodgers’ lefties up with no on and two outs and just take big swings pounding splitters into the ground, the Brewers could win the series going away.
Season Series
The Brewers won the season series, taking a series in Los Angeles right after the All-Star break, then splitting a series in Milwaukee in early September.
The Dodgers won the first game behind great left-handed pitching, 2-1. Eduardo Rodriguez, Eric Groves, Clayton Kershaw, and Ismael Robles combined to allow three hits, and Willie Calhoun had a walk-off single in the ninth off Blayne Enlow.
Milwaukee beat up Steven Matz in the second game for 7 runs in 2+ innings without the benefit of a home run, then beat up Joey Wentz in the finale for six runs in 2.2 innings. Starling Heredia went 4-7 with a home run and five runs scored in the two games.
In September, The Dodgers beat up Tim Kierstead and Joe Rowland in the opener scoring 16 runs in a 16-5 blowout. Steven Matz rebounded from his July outing in the second contest, allowing one run in 6 innings in a 3-1 Dodgers win. Groves and Robles had 3 shutout innings with six strikeouts in that 3-1 win.
Milwaukee won the third game with Greg Jacks and Matt Aceto driving in six. J.B. Bukauskas allowed six runs in 4.2 innings against Milwaukee’s lefty-laden lineup. David Meeks gave the Brewers the season series in the finale with a one-hit gem in 8 innings.
Key Questions
Can the Dodgers’ left-handed starters that struggle against right-handed hitters shut down Milwaukee’s’ weaker bats that will have the platoon advantage?
Can Nomar Mazara have a dominant series to overcome Milwaukee’s pitching, defense, and bullpen?
Will Milwaukee’s benched left-handers be able to produce against Los Angeles’ exceptional bullpen?
Prediction
The Dodgers are a pretty bad matchup for the Brewers, except that the Brewers are likely more talented than Los Angeles. Milwaukee should eek out enough small leads against Los Angeles’ staff then hold on in the late innings That will be the difference in a low scoring series. Brewers 4-2