Post by Commissioner Erick on Apr 10, 2021 15:35:59 GMT -5
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in the postseason for the second straight season, third time overall, but the first time in the NLCS. The Dodgers won last season’s NLDS matchup in seven games, but San Francisco won three in a row after falling into an 0-3 hole to force that Game 7, showing the club’s collective heart. In the first six games last year, neither team scored more than four runs—this year’s series may be just as much of a rock fight.
Giants Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
Like all of San Francisco’s best teams in their history, the club doesn’t have a prolific offense, but relies on making contact, and putting up a high batting average, to generate runs. San Francisco has a solid 19.8 strikeout rate, third in the league, and a .310 batting average, third in the league. Their offense can neutralize high-strikeout arms pitching in front of porous defenses.
Washington also showed in the NLDS that they can produce power when they need to, hitting 10 home runs in six games. Calvin Mitchell clubbed four, while Blake Rutherford, Kelyn Klattenburger, and Jonathan Arauz smacked two apiece.
San Francisco’s biggest vulnerability is left-handed pitching though. They make contact at the same rate, but the on-base and slugging numbers for the team go down as the club’s best hitters are left-handed.
That’ll give the Dodgers a leg up with the three lefties they have in the rotation. Logan Allen, Steven Matz, and Joey Wentz all performed well against a dangerous Brewers team that was weak against lefties, and this will be a similar situation.
In fact, Los Angeles’ starters were exceptional against San Francisco this season. Joey Wentz went 3-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in four starts against the Giants. Matz went 1-2 with a decent 3.94 mark. Logan Allen went 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP, with Giants hitters batting .190 off him. Even right-hander J.B. Bukauskas went 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in three starts.
The BABIPs against the Dodgers’ lefties were all better than the BABIPs against Bukauskas. More righties means more balls hit to the left side and Amin Valdez and away from Luis Urias and Willie Calhoun. The Dodgers defense did a pretty nice job against the Brewers in the games left-handers started.
San Francisco may need big series from a few run producers like Bryan Martelo to gain the advantage against the Dodgers’ starters.
In the bullpen, Ismael Robles and Bobby Spong struggled against San Francisco in the regular season, but each were the only two arms with an ERA over 2.61. Luis Ceja also struggled, but shouldn’t pitch in key spots. Eric Groves and Clayton Kershaw combined to work 15.2 innings allowing just two runs and 10 hits, and will be called upon frequently to match up with San Francisco’s left-handed sluggers. Also, while Robles has two losses to San Francisco this year, he also has 14 strikeouts in 8.1 innings, and has a 1.25 ERA after March.
Dodgers Offense versus Giants Pitching
The Dodgers’ offense is similar to the Giants in that it’s more geared towards average than power, though not as extreme. The team finished second in batting average and on-base percentage and only seventh in home runs. That home run total isn’t as bad as it looks—two hitters did hit at least 46 home runs and their 246 home runs would have ranked fifth last year and would have led the league in 2023—but it does show that their average is more important to their success than other teams.
The Dodgers trio of Alex Bregman, Nomar Mazara, and Willie Calhoun are top notch hitters, but the Dodgers will need their supporting cast to produce to be at their best. In the NLDS, Luis Urias homered, Alex Verdugo doubled, and the Dodgers put up five runs in Game 1 of the NLDS. Jeren Kendall had three RBIs and two hits in Game 3 when the Dodgers put up five runs. Alex Verdugo homered and drove in three in Game 6 when the Dodgers put up seven runs. Urias, Kendall, and Verdugo will be key players against the Giants.
They’ll need to be key because the Giants have the best staff in the universe. Both Justin Marsden and Mehki Lias had over 6 WAR, and Shane Baz in a down year put up 5.3 WAR. Those hurlers work from the right side, but fourth-starter Miguel Diaz allowed the lowest BABIP in the league dealing from the left side. Baz and Marsden blow hitters away, while Tripod limits walks and homers, and Diaz allows soft contact.
Despite the strikeouts, the Dodgers handled Marsden and Baz this season. They struck out a combined 40 times in 28.2 innings, but Marsen and Baz combined for a 2-3 record with a 7.02 ERA against Los Angeles. Tripod only went 0-2 with a 4.71 ERA himself against LA. The Dodgers righties were able to hang in against the trio, while the lefties had good slugging numbers. Lias is also dealing with a bad back that can hamper his effectiveness.
San Francisco has an excellent pen, but one that had mixed results against the Dodgers this year. Teofilo Torrez and lefty Jake Eder had the best success, with Aaron Perry also doing a standup job. However, key right-handers Octavio Lopez, Rafael A. Gomez, Curt Gemma, and Ryan DiSibio all struggled. The Dodgers best bats are mostly left-handed and the Giants won’t have many options to match up. They’ll need their right-handers to shut down the Dodgers’ big lefties.
San Francisco’s defense is good with no standouts, but no poor performers either. It won’t add too much value, but won’t provide the Dodgers with cheap baserunners.
The Dodgers don’t have much of a bench, though with the Giants’ pen being overwhelmingly right-handed, it won’t be much of a problem. If a player suffers an injury though, the Dodgers lineup will be in trouble.
Season Series
The Dodgers won the season series 10-9, though they outscored the Giants 87-71. Their pitching generally shut down San Francisco, while their offense scored just enough. San Francisco scored three runs or fewer in more than half the games they played against LA. The Dodgers won 6 of 10 in Dodgers Stadium, and went 4-5 in San Francisco.
Despite their key pitchers struggling, and their offense having a tough time with the Dodgers’ left-handed starters, San Francisco had a number of big comebacks against the Dodgers’ bullpen. One nine-run eighth resulted in an 11-4 win, while a five-run ninth gave the Giants a 7-3 victory on Opening Day. San Francisco will need more gutsy performances to pull off wins.
Oscar Hernandez had a .310 OPS against the Dodgers this year, Blake Rutherford put up a .568 OPS and Dan Cabrera had a .582 mark. Those three will need to play better for the Giants. Yomar Valentin hit .324, and Kelyn Klattenburger had three homers and five doubles for the Giants.
Willie Calhoun, Nomar Mazara, and Seiya Suzuki each had at least six home runs against San Francisco this year, while Alex Bregman walked and had enough extra base hits to put up an .800 OPS despite a .239 average and three homers. On the other side, Jeren Kendall hit just 4-64 with 37 strikeouts in a .063/.200/.063 Triple Slash as the Giants power fastballs overwhelmed Kendall’s long, looping swing. Luis Urias also struggled, hitting just .203 against San Francisco and its premium arms.
Key Questions
Will the Giants’ hitters wilt against all the left-handed pitching Los Angeles will unfurl?
Will San Francisco’s aces pitch like aces this series?
Will the Dodgers’ supporting cast help out its middle of the order?
Prediction
The Dodgers have solved San Francisco’s star pitchers, and will have the platoon advantage in most matchups. The Giants’ stars won’t pitch as bad as they did in the regular season but they won’t be able to overwhelm the Dodgers. Los Angeles will win another low-scoring series. Dodgers 4 – Giants 2.
The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in the postseason for the second straight season, third time overall, but the first time in the NLCS. The Dodgers won last season’s NLDS matchup in seven games, but San Francisco won three in a row after falling into an 0-3 hole to force that Game 7, showing the club’s collective heart. In the first six games last year, neither team scored more than four runs—this year’s series may be just as much of a rock fight.
Giants Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
Like all of San Francisco’s best teams in their history, the club doesn’t have a prolific offense, but relies on making contact, and putting up a high batting average, to generate runs. San Francisco has a solid 19.8 strikeout rate, third in the league, and a .310 batting average, third in the league. Their offense can neutralize high-strikeout arms pitching in front of porous defenses.
Washington also showed in the NLDS that they can produce power when they need to, hitting 10 home runs in six games. Calvin Mitchell clubbed four, while Blake Rutherford, Kelyn Klattenburger, and Jonathan Arauz smacked two apiece.
San Francisco’s biggest vulnerability is left-handed pitching though. They make contact at the same rate, but the on-base and slugging numbers for the team go down as the club’s best hitters are left-handed.
That’ll give the Dodgers a leg up with the three lefties they have in the rotation. Logan Allen, Steven Matz, and Joey Wentz all performed well against a dangerous Brewers team that was weak against lefties, and this will be a similar situation.
In fact, Los Angeles’ starters were exceptional against San Francisco this season. Joey Wentz went 3-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in four starts against the Giants. Matz went 1-2 with a decent 3.94 mark. Logan Allen went 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP, with Giants hitters batting .190 off him. Even right-hander J.B. Bukauskas went 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in three starts.
The BABIPs against the Dodgers’ lefties were all better than the BABIPs against Bukauskas. More righties means more balls hit to the left side and Amin Valdez and away from Luis Urias and Willie Calhoun. The Dodgers defense did a pretty nice job against the Brewers in the games left-handers started.
San Francisco may need big series from a few run producers like Bryan Martelo to gain the advantage against the Dodgers’ starters.
In the bullpen, Ismael Robles and Bobby Spong struggled against San Francisco in the regular season, but each were the only two arms with an ERA over 2.61. Luis Ceja also struggled, but shouldn’t pitch in key spots. Eric Groves and Clayton Kershaw combined to work 15.2 innings allowing just two runs and 10 hits, and will be called upon frequently to match up with San Francisco’s left-handed sluggers. Also, while Robles has two losses to San Francisco this year, he also has 14 strikeouts in 8.1 innings, and has a 1.25 ERA after March.
Dodgers Offense versus Giants Pitching
The Dodgers’ offense is similar to the Giants in that it’s more geared towards average than power, though not as extreme. The team finished second in batting average and on-base percentage and only seventh in home runs. That home run total isn’t as bad as it looks—two hitters did hit at least 46 home runs and their 246 home runs would have ranked fifth last year and would have led the league in 2023—but it does show that their average is more important to their success than other teams.
The Dodgers trio of Alex Bregman, Nomar Mazara, and Willie Calhoun are top notch hitters, but the Dodgers will need their supporting cast to produce to be at their best. In the NLDS, Luis Urias homered, Alex Verdugo doubled, and the Dodgers put up five runs in Game 1 of the NLDS. Jeren Kendall had three RBIs and two hits in Game 3 when the Dodgers put up five runs. Alex Verdugo homered and drove in three in Game 6 when the Dodgers put up seven runs. Urias, Kendall, and Verdugo will be key players against the Giants.
They’ll need to be key because the Giants have the best staff in the universe. Both Justin Marsden and Mehki Lias had over 6 WAR, and Shane Baz in a down year put up 5.3 WAR. Those hurlers work from the right side, but fourth-starter Miguel Diaz allowed the lowest BABIP in the league dealing from the left side. Baz and Marsden blow hitters away, while Tripod limits walks and homers, and Diaz allows soft contact.
Despite the strikeouts, the Dodgers handled Marsden and Baz this season. They struck out a combined 40 times in 28.2 innings, but Marsen and Baz combined for a 2-3 record with a 7.02 ERA against Los Angeles. Tripod only went 0-2 with a 4.71 ERA himself against LA. The Dodgers righties were able to hang in against the trio, while the lefties had good slugging numbers. Lias is also dealing with a bad back that can hamper his effectiveness.
San Francisco has an excellent pen, but one that had mixed results against the Dodgers this year. Teofilo Torrez and lefty Jake Eder had the best success, with Aaron Perry also doing a standup job. However, key right-handers Octavio Lopez, Rafael A. Gomez, Curt Gemma, and Ryan DiSibio all struggled. The Dodgers best bats are mostly left-handed and the Giants won’t have many options to match up. They’ll need their right-handers to shut down the Dodgers’ big lefties.
San Francisco’s defense is good with no standouts, but no poor performers either. It won’t add too much value, but won’t provide the Dodgers with cheap baserunners.
The Dodgers don’t have much of a bench, though with the Giants’ pen being overwhelmingly right-handed, it won’t be much of a problem. If a player suffers an injury though, the Dodgers lineup will be in trouble.
Season Series
The Dodgers won the season series 10-9, though they outscored the Giants 87-71. Their pitching generally shut down San Francisco, while their offense scored just enough. San Francisco scored three runs or fewer in more than half the games they played against LA. The Dodgers won 6 of 10 in Dodgers Stadium, and went 4-5 in San Francisco.
Despite their key pitchers struggling, and their offense having a tough time with the Dodgers’ left-handed starters, San Francisco had a number of big comebacks against the Dodgers’ bullpen. One nine-run eighth resulted in an 11-4 win, while a five-run ninth gave the Giants a 7-3 victory on Opening Day. San Francisco will need more gutsy performances to pull off wins.
Oscar Hernandez had a .310 OPS against the Dodgers this year, Blake Rutherford put up a .568 OPS and Dan Cabrera had a .582 mark. Those three will need to play better for the Giants. Yomar Valentin hit .324, and Kelyn Klattenburger had three homers and five doubles for the Giants.
Willie Calhoun, Nomar Mazara, and Seiya Suzuki each had at least six home runs against San Francisco this year, while Alex Bregman walked and had enough extra base hits to put up an .800 OPS despite a .239 average and three homers. On the other side, Jeren Kendall hit just 4-64 with 37 strikeouts in a .063/.200/.063 Triple Slash as the Giants power fastballs overwhelmed Kendall’s long, looping swing. Luis Urias also struggled, hitting just .203 against San Francisco and its premium arms.
Key Questions
Will the Giants’ hitters wilt against all the left-handed pitching Los Angeles will unfurl?
Will San Francisco’s aces pitch like aces this series?
Will the Dodgers’ supporting cast help out its middle of the order?
Prediction
The Dodgers have solved San Francisco’s star pitchers, and will have the platoon advantage in most matchups. The Giants’ stars won’t pitch as bad as they did in the regular season but they won’t be able to overwhelm the Dodgers. Los Angeles will win another low-scoring series. Dodgers 4 – Giants 2.