Post by brewersgm on Apr 11, 2021 4:08:28 GMT -5
Texas Rangers (89-73) vs Baltimore Orioles (99-63)
The Rangers return to the ALCS for the 4th time under GM Clayton Piper. They are an older team and several of the players from Piper's last ALCS appearance remain. The Rangers have yet to win an ALCS however, and standing in their way is the best team in the American League. It's the first ALCS appearance in PBA history for the Orioles and for GM Vic Black. It will be a clash of two very different styles. The Rangers were one of the best defensive and pitching teams in the American League and the Orioles were one of the most prolific offenses the PBA has ever seen.
Lineups
Rangers:
The Rangers lineup suffered untimely injuries to key players such as 2B Ozzie Albies and 3B Nick Gordon but still finished a respectable 6th in OPS in the American League. Paul Goldschmidt may be 38 but he still has 20/20 vision. He's led the AL in walks for 5 consecutive years. Carlos Correa and Kyle Lewis were the big mashers for the Rangers. At age 31 Corre's fielding is not what it used to be but he can still swing the bat and play heel. In what was a theme around the PBA this year Correa hit a career high 51 homers and had a career high 144 wRC+. Correa also let us know that if he had made more contact he'd have even more home runs. Kyle Lewis also set a career high with a 130 wRC+ in a contract year. Francisco "La Cabra" Mejia is coming off a down year but as his performance in the ALDS against Detroit shows, he's still one of the best hitting catchers in the majors. An interesting player to watch will be LF Trent Clark. Clark has been leading off for the Rangers but has been extremely cold lately and carries a high strikeout rate. He was traded to the Rangers from the Orioles before the start of the year in exchange for a package of picks. There will surely be some motivation on Clark's part to show the Oriole's that they made a mistake in trading him but with such a cold bat the Rangers may be better served if he is dropped in the order.
Orioles:
For an animal with no hands these Orioles sure can really swing the bat. The team hit 328 home runs to lead the American League. The combination of their hitting talent and the bandbox that is Camden Yards simply overwhelmed opposing pitching. The scary thing for the Rangers is that the O's got better and deeper as the year wore on. In one of the more bizarre moves in PBA history, the Twins decided to ship out beloved fan favorite superstar CF Wessel Russchen to the Orioles during the middle of the season. The Twins decided to trade him for a bunch of guys who could be anything, even a superstar like Wessel Russchen. Russchen is a top 5 position player in the PBA and he took very well to his new surroundings in Baltimore, hitting for a 1.045 OPS in 55 games with the Birds. He's tweaked his wrists and may have to play through some pain this series though. That is a concern for the Orioles but they have plenty of firepower to pick him up. LF Jadon Ancrum turned in a 7.2 WAR season with 47 homer runs, 3B Joe DeCarlo DeMolished 68 homers and DH Emmanuel Tapia hit 50. That's without mentioning another former Twins star in Luis Robert who stayed healthy this season and hit 36, or 1B Mike Floyd who hit 31. These Birds hit bombs.
Edge: Orioles
Defenses
Rangers:
The Rangers were an outstanding defensive club despite going half of the season without one of their best defenders in Albies. Luis Guillorme was able to step up and provide great defense in Albies place. Unfortunately for them though, injuries have cut even more deeply into their IF defense lately and they'll have to play Correa at SS where he's not great. Goldschmidt is also a liability at 1B at this point in his career.
Especially noteworthy for this series though, is the Rangers outfield defense, which may be the best in the PBA. CF Raimfer Salinas has one of the weirdest approaches at the plate in the majors but when he's out there on defense he's in his element. Trent Clark is exceptional in left field as well, and Kyle Lewis is above average in right. The Rangers will need these guys to be their rangy selves to win this series. Baltimore projects to hit a ton of balls into the outfield. The Rangers pitching staff will have to patrol a dangerous line, enticing enough flyballs to keep the play away from their bad IF defenders but not so many flyballs as to give the Orioles a boost in home runs and extra base hits.
Last year the Orioles were horrific in the field, this year they were merely bad. CF was the only place to have a collective ZR over 2.00 thanks to two outstanding defenders in Russchen and Jacob Allred. Mike Floyd is fortunately no longer playing at 2B where he put up all time bad numbers last season. He's been an average defender at 1B, which Baltimore will gladly take. Yunior Severino is a decent defender at 2B. Steve Ivey has been alright at C. That's about where the good defenders end though. Ivey has seen his playing time drop in favor of Reese McGuire who's been so used to a bad staff in Pittsburgh that's he struggled to adjust to a better one in Baltimore. He's got a better bat than Ivey but hasn't hit so far for the O's. With so many amazing bats already in the Baltimore lineup, the team may be better served giving Ivey more opportunities behind the plate this series to boost their defense and their staff's confidence.
Edge: Texas
Rangers:
Starters
Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard were once again an Augustus McCrae and Woodrow Call level pairing for the Rangers at the top of the rotation. The dynamic duo put up 6 WAR seasons apiece and Syndergaard led the AL in pitching WAR despite only throwing 145.1 innings. That's been a theme for poor Thor as injuries continue to deprive the league of his talent. This series is sadly no different. He will miss the ALCS with a shoulder injury which is a huge loss for the Rangers. Thor and Stroman have been two of the only pitchers able to limit the Orioles offense this season. Both started games in which the Rangers shut out the Orioles at home in the Texas heat; a remarkable accomplishment. Thor threw a combined 9.2 innings against the Orioles this season and did not allow a run. Outside of Stroman and Syndergaard the Rangers rotation was somewhat shaky but their stable of groundballers has rounded into form lately with Adonis Medina and Kyle Hendricks pitching great games in the ALDS. The starters will have to continue what they've been doing in keeping the ball from leaving the yard, but it will be tall task against the Baltimore lineup.
Bullpen
*(It would take Blayne Enlow approximately 5,296,772 scoreless innings to reach this number for his own postseason ERA).
Orioles:
Starters
The Orioles starting staff was a strong point for the club this season finishing 3rd in the AL in ERA despite pitching in Camden Yards in front of a porous defense. Darwinzon Hernandez is the ace of the staff. The former Rule V pick is coming off his 3rd consecutive 200 strikeout season. The inexplicable decision not to protect him has been the Red Sox loss and the Oriole's gain. He's a lefty with exceptional control and stuff, who's cutter has historically helped him to neutralize right handed hitters. He's a flyball pitcher who will give up the occasional homer but thanks to his control there is usually not someone on base when that happens. Behind Hernandez the Orioles will throw righties Sam Carlson and Devin Ortiz. Carlson has one of the best sinkers in the majors but he's yet to really put it all together at the PBA level. Despite his excellent sinker he allowed 2.0 HR for every 9 innings he pitched this season. Devin Ortiz had better regular season numbers than Carlson but he's been shellacked twice this postseason already, giving up 5 ER in both of his ALDS starts.
Tommy Stanfield is another guy who should get a look in the series. It's unclear what the Orioles plan for him has been. Listed as an emergency starter he's yet to even throw an inning in the postseason. He hasn't started or relieved and the O's may be hard pressed to beat Texas if he doesn't contribute to the team. The Orioles won almost every game Stanfield started this season so they'll want better usage out of his for this series.
Bullpen
The Orioles had the worst bullpen in the American League. The unit pitched to an atrocious 5.76 ERA. The team still managed to win thanks to the lineups ability to mash the ball to kingdom come, but the weak bullpen meant a lot of 10-7 type games. The failure of the pen wasn't for a lack of trying on the part of the O's management. Brandon Finnegan and Zack Burdi were two proven relievers who the team targeted and brought on during the season but both were ineffective for the O's. They put up worse ERA's individually than the whole bullpen collectively. That is to say, they were bad. Burdi is injured and out for the postseason but Finnegan has shown some encouraging signs so far. The O's will hope he can build on his outings in the ALDS and continue his postseason legend. Finnegan was key to the DBacks WS run in 2022 and the O's hope he can be key for them in 2025. Silvino Bracho was the O's closer in the regular season but it's likely Finnegan will take over that job in the playoffs as Bracho allowed far too many homers as the man tasked with pitching the hardest inning. Jake Cosart is a RHP who was the O's most effective reliever in the regular season and could be the RH side of a late inning duo with Finnegan. However, the O's manager bot has decided that he hasn't deserved to pitch. He's yet to throw an inning this postseason.
Edge: SP- Even with Thor's absence, BP- Texas
Can Claudio and Barraclaugh continue to be shutdown relievers in the postseason while facing their toughest challenge yet?
What will Tommy Stanfield's role be in this series for the Orioles? Surely the manager bot will let him pitch?
The absence of Thor is monumental, can the Ranger's other starters pick up the slack?
It's doubtful that anyone can truly contain this O's lineup but Texas is certainly one of the better equipped teams to do so. Will the ground ball staff and outstanding OF defense limit the O's ability to hit for power and extra bases?
Prediction: 4-2 Orioles. It's tight series and the O's bullpen blows a game or two in Enlowian fashion, but ultimately the absence of Thor tips the scales in the Orioles favor, and the lineup is able to produce against the Ranger's non-Stroman starters.
