Post by Commissioner Erick on Apr 17, 2021 13:54:39 GMT -5
Ben Vincent and Clayton Piper have been some of the PBA’s most successful GM’s, managing for nine PBA seasons. Vincent is in his second straight World Series and has reinvigorated the Dodgers after a dry patch, making them one of the league’s best teams again. Clayton Piper has never had a losing record, and after three failed attempts, has finally pushed through the ALCS and made it to the World Series with the Texas Rangers
Each manager faces off looking to validate their successful careers by earning their first championship.
Dodgers Offense versus Rangers Pitching
So far the Dodgers have taken series against San Francisco and Milwaukee pitching, the #1 and #2 teams by ERA in the PBA. And although it was only a one game series, the Dodgers also knocked off Marc Eberle and the Braves, the team with the #3 ERA in the PBA. Having defeated the NL's elite pitching staffs, they now turn their sight to one of the AL's elite in the Rangers.
The Dodgers were 2nd in the NL in OBP and average. They have continued to find ways to put hitters on base in the postseason. The key has been their lefty bats, led by Amin Valdez. The NLCS MVP has been sensational at the top of the order for the Dodgers in the postseason slashing 348/423/696 against the best the NL has to offer. It doesn't matter who is on the mound Valdez is going to get on base. Following Valdez, Nomar Mazara, and Alex Verdugo have also raked from the left side. Mazara slugged .611 against the Giants pitching staff and has gotten better as the postseason has gone on. Verdugo was the NLDS MVP against Milwaukee shattering Blayne Enlow's dreams. He has a .994 OPS this postseason.
The three lefties have so far made up for the struggles of the three best right handed bats for the Dodgers. Alex Bregman, Luis Urias and Seiya Suzuki hold .677, .676, and .528 OPS's this postseason. The Dodgers will need to get this trio going, although it may be tough against a Rangers pitching staff who feature only two left handed pitchers, one of whom is the best reliever in PBA postseason history.
Despite the Dodgers ability to shred top pitching staffs, the Rangers pitchers should feel confident. While the Dodgers faced the best pitching staffs in the PBA, the Rangers faced the PBA's toughest lineup. They did what many predicted couldn't be done and were able to somewhat shut down the Orioles. The Rangers held the Orioles lineup, #1 in the PBA in wOBA, homers, and K rate, to only 4 runs a game over Games 6 and 7 of the ALCS to take the series in a come-from-behind effort. And they did that without arguably their best pitcher.
Noah Syndergaard is scheduled to return to the Rangers roster for the World Series, having missed the ALCS with a shoulder injury. Thor already has a ring from his time on the 2017 Mets and he'll be looking to win one in the AL with the Rangers. He gets absurd movement on all of his pitches and allows very few home runs. If Thor does have a weakness though it's his stamina and his lack of ability to hold runners. Getting Valdez out will be important because if he gets on Thor isn't holding him and the Dodgers lineup will be in a position to do damage.
Besides Thor, the Rangers best starter is Marcus Stroman. Stroman and Thor combined for over 12 WAR this season with each contributing about half of that, a number that was the best in the league for a duo of starting pitchers (narrowly edging out the Giants duo of Justin Marsden and Tripod Lias). Stroman was the Game 7 hero for the Rangers, striking out 12 Orioles over 7 innings and holding them to only 2 runs. After those two though, the Rangers staff has a significant drop-off. Presumed #3 starter Kyle Hendricks has not been good in the postseason and #4 starter Adonis Medina was shellacked by the Orioles. The Dodgers should be able to get to both of them.
Outside of Stroman and Syndergaard the next best Rangers pitchers come out of the bullpen. Kyle Barraclough and Alex Claudio have impeccable playoff resumes with career playoff ERA's of 1.93 and 0.94 respectively. Claudio worked 5.2 high leverage innings against Baltimore without allowing a run and Barraclough allowed only one over 6 innings pitched. They are a lethal lefty/righty combo, and against a Dodgers team without much of a bench they should have favorable platoon match-ups late in games.
The Rangers also have a solid defense which should help out their pitching staff in this series. In particular the outfield of Trenton Clark, Raimfer Salinas and Kyle Lewis is outstanding. This outfield played a big role in helping out the Rangers pitchers against the flyball happy Orioles.
Rangers Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
Los Angeles has had good fortune this postseason with its lefty-heavy rotation facing off against teams that struggle against left-handed pitching. That won’t be the case against Texas.
The Rangers were the best team in the American League against left-handed pitching. They had the highest OPS, fueled by the highest on-base percentage against left-handers in baseball. They only play three left-handed hitters, and Rougned Odor has always at least held his own against lefties. Their six best hitters are right-handed and that will stress LA’s starting rotation.
It’s also fortunate for Texas. They only had the ninth best offense in the American League, so they can use all the help they can get.
There isn’t a huge theory behind Texas’ hitters, other than they tend to be right-handed. Carlos Correa is Texas’ best hitter. The infielder smashed 51 homers this season, hit .291, and drove in 131 runs. He’s produced in the postseason and is a bear to handle. He’s usually preceded in the order by Kyle Lewis, another slugger who hit 35 homers this year. Lewis is good, but he’s a little less dynamic than most team’s clubs’ second-best hitter.
Ozzie Albies, fresh off the IL after a long layoff, leads off. He’s a prototypical leadoff man with great bat control, a good eye, speed, and the talent to get on base. Raimfer Salinas will bat second in most games. He has good pop but no plate discipline, curtailing his effectiveness.
Francisco Mejia and Paul Goldschmidt bat fifth and sixth and each gets on base a ton versus lefties—Mejia by smacking line drives, Goldschmidt by drawing walks, but neither is a major run producer.
Texas should be able to get people on base, but it will be up to the heart of their order, and up to lefties with men on base, to see if they can cash in.
Righties hit for a bunch of homers, but had low on-base-percentages against Joey Wentz and Steven Matz. Lefties couldn’t touch Wentz, but had a bunch of homers off Matz.
The Wentz numbers are encouraging. By keeping hitters off the bases, Wentz may allow a solo home run or two, but he should be able to hold his own. Matz is more at risk at allowing homers to more hitters. It may be critical for him to make sure he retires Paul Goldschmidt as two-run shots by Rougned Odor are more in play with him on the mound.
Logan Allen allowed a pretty neutral .240/.301/.428 slash line to right-handers, skewing a little more to power than average. He wasn’t as dominant against left-handers as Wentz, but only allowed three home runs. He should be able to hold his own by limiting his homers allowed to solo shots, and not letting Rougned get cheap homers.
J.B. Bukauskas allowed righties to have a .269 OBP this year, and was far better against righties than lefties. He’s homer prone, but should have a strong series.
The Dodgers should be able to hold on to late leads with its bullpen. If the Dodgers play their platoons right, their righties dominate right-handed hitters, and their lefties do well against left-handed hitters. David Robertson has a weird reverse platoon-split, but that’s run counter to his career norms, and Bobby Spong allowed each handedness to have neutral success rates, but he’s not a key member of their pen. Los Angeles has both Clayton Kershaw and Eric Groves for the lefties, and that should be enough. If a game goes to extras, Ismael Robles is good enough to get a turn against the Texas left-handers.
The concern may be what to do against Texas’ switch hitters. Francisco Mejia’s been better against righties in his career, but he’s been better against lefties the past two seasons. Ozzie Albies has no real platoon split.
Mejia bats in front of Goldschmidt who is an easy out for pitchers with good control, so Osiris Ramirez may be a good arm to face him. Albies’ ability to get on base is a concern, so I’d keep Clayton Kershaw on to face Albies, but not Groves. There aren’t great options for Albies, so I’d use the right-hander that would be brought on to face the heart of the order.
Texas’ bench is filled with speed and defense players, so there’s no pinch-hit option the Dodgers have to be worried about.
Texas doesn’t run too frequently, but the Dodgers don’t handle the running game well. Texas may be able to steal some offense if Trent Clark or Ozzie Albies are allowed to run successfully.
Key Questions
Will the Rangers be able to batter the Dodgers' left-handed bats?
Can the Dodgers get to Stroman or Syndergaard at least once in the series?
Which bullpen will perform better?
Significant Batter vs Pitcher Matchups
Austin Hedges vs Kyle Hendricks: 2-11, 0 HR
Willie Calhoun vs Kyle Hendricks: 4-13, 0 HR
Luis Urias vs Noah Syndergaard: 1-15, 0 HR
Luis Urias vs Kyle Hendricks: 4-11, 0 HR
Alex Bregman vs Marcus Stroman: 11-43, 1 HR
Alex Bregman vs Josh Staumont: 4-19, 1 HR
Alex Bregman vs Alex Claudio: 4-22, 0 HR
Alex Verdugo vs Kyle Hendricks: 8-20, 2 HR
Jeren Kendall vs Noah Syndergaard: 1-11, 0 HR
Jeren Kendall vs Kyle Hendricks: 4-18, 0 HR
Nomar Mazara vs Noah Syndergaard: 4-17, 1 HR
Nomar Mazara vs Marcus Stroman: 3-13, 0 HR
Nomar Mazara vs Kyle Hendricks: 10-23, 2 HR
Francisco Mejia vs Steven Matz: 5-16, 1 HR
Paul Goldschmidt vs Steven Matz: 6-17, 2 HR
Ozzie Albies vs Clayton Kershaw: 4-17, 0 HR
Rougned Odor vs Steven Matz: 3-16, 0 HR
Cavan Biggio vs Steven Matz: 3-13, 0 HR
Carlos Correa vs Steven Matz: 9-18, 0 HR
Trent Clark vs Joey Wentz: 4-13, 1 HR
Trent Clark vs Logan Allen: 1-10, 0 HR
Ramon Laureano: 2-15, 0 HR
Prediction
The Dodgers have held their own against some of the best pitchers, specifically right-handed pitchers, that the game has had to offer this postseason. However, Thor and Stroman are a cut above everyone else. The Dodgers staff is finally facing a lineup that can feast against left-handed pitching. It'll be a close series, but the Rangers will win a low-scoring Game 7. Rangers 4- 3
Special thanks to Luke Grimelbein who contributed to this article
Each manager faces off looking to validate their successful careers by earning their first championship.
Dodgers Offense versus Rangers Pitching
So far the Dodgers have taken series against San Francisco and Milwaukee pitching, the #1 and #2 teams by ERA in the PBA. And although it was only a one game series, the Dodgers also knocked off Marc Eberle and the Braves, the team with the #3 ERA in the PBA. Having defeated the NL's elite pitching staffs, they now turn their sight to one of the AL's elite in the Rangers.
The Dodgers were 2nd in the NL in OBP and average. They have continued to find ways to put hitters on base in the postseason. The key has been their lefty bats, led by Amin Valdez. The NLCS MVP has been sensational at the top of the order for the Dodgers in the postseason slashing 348/423/696 against the best the NL has to offer. It doesn't matter who is on the mound Valdez is going to get on base. Following Valdez, Nomar Mazara, and Alex Verdugo have also raked from the left side. Mazara slugged .611 against the Giants pitching staff and has gotten better as the postseason has gone on. Verdugo was the NLDS MVP against Milwaukee shattering Blayne Enlow's dreams. He has a .994 OPS this postseason.
The three lefties have so far made up for the struggles of the three best right handed bats for the Dodgers. Alex Bregman, Luis Urias and Seiya Suzuki hold .677, .676, and .528 OPS's this postseason. The Dodgers will need to get this trio going, although it may be tough against a Rangers pitching staff who feature only two left handed pitchers, one of whom is the best reliever in PBA postseason history.
Despite the Dodgers ability to shred top pitching staffs, the Rangers pitchers should feel confident. While the Dodgers faced the best pitching staffs in the PBA, the Rangers faced the PBA's toughest lineup. They did what many predicted couldn't be done and were able to somewhat shut down the Orioles. The Rangers held the Orioles lineup, #1 in the PBA in wOBA, homers, and K rate, to only 4 runs a game over Games 6 and 7 of the ALCS to take the series in a come-from-behind effort. And they did that without arguably their best pitcher.
Noah Syndergaard is scheduled to return to the Rangers roster for the World Series, having missed the ALCS with a shoulder injury. Thor already has a ring from his time on the 2017 Mets and he'll be looking to win one in the AL with the Rangers. He gets absurd movement on all of his pitches and allows very few home runs. If Thor does have a weakness though it's his stamina and his lack of ability to hold runners. Getting Valdez out will be important because if he gets on Thor isn't holding him and the Dodgers lineup will be in a position to do damage.
Besides Thor, the Rangers best starter is Marcus Stroman. Stroman and Thor combined for over 12 WAR this season with each contributing about half of that, a number that was the best in the league for a duo of starting pitchers (narrowly edging out the Giants duo of Justin Marsden and Tripod Lias). Stroman was the Game 7 hero for the Rangers, striking out 12 Orioles over 7 innings and holding them to only 2 runs. After those two though, the Rangers staff has a significant drop-off. Presumed #3 starter Kyle Hendricks has not been good in the postseason and #4 starter Adonis Medina was shellacked by the Orioles. The Dodgers should be able to get to both of them.
Outside of Stroman and Syndergaard the next best Rangers pitchers come out of the bullpen. Kyle Barraclough and Alex Claudio have impeccable playoff resumes with career playoff ERA's of 1.93 and 0.94 respectively. Claudio worked 5.2 high leverage innings against Baltimore without allowing a run and Barraclough allowed only one over 6 innings pitched. They are a lethal lefty/righty combo, and against a Dodgers team without much of a bench they should have favorable platoon match-ups late in games.
The Rangers also have a solid defense which should help out their pitching staff in this series. In particular the outfield of Trenton Clark, Raimfer Salinas and Kyle Lewis is outstanding. This outfield played a big role in helping out the Rangers pitchers against the flyball happy Orioles.
Rangers Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
Los Angeles has had good fortune this postseason with its lefty-heavy rotation facing off against teams that struggle against left-handed pitching. That won’t be the case against Texas.
The Rangers were the best team in the American League against left-handed pitching. They had the highest OPS, fueled by the highest on-base percentage against left-handers in baseball. They only play three left-handed hitters, and Rougned Odor has always at least held his own against lefties. Their six best hitters are right-handed and that will stress LA’s starting rotation.
It’s also fortunate for Texas. They only had the ninth best offense in the American League, so they can use all the help they can get.
There isn’t a huge theory behind Texas’ hitters, other than they tend to be right-handed. Carlos Correa is Texas’ best hitter. The infielder smashed 51 homers this season, hit .291, and drove in 131 runs. He’s produced in the postseason and is a bear to handle. He’s usually preceded in the order by Kyle Lewis, another slugger who hit 35 homers this year. Lewis is good, but he’s a little less dynamic than most team’s clubs’ second-best hitter.
Ozzie Albies, fresh off the IL after a long layoff, leads off. He’s a prototypical leadoff man with great bat control, a good eye, speed, and the talent to get on base. Raimfer Salinas will bat second in most games. He has good pop but no plate discipline, curtailing his effectiveness.
Francisco Mejia and Paul Goldschmidt bat fifth and sixth and each gets on base a ton versus lefties—Mejia by smacking line drives, Goldschmidt by drawing walks, but neither is a major run producer.
Texas should be able to get people on base, but it will be up to the heart of their order, and up to lefties with men on base, to see if they can cash in.
Righties hit for a bunch of homers, but had low on-base-percentages against Joey Wentz and Steven Matz. Lefties couldn’t touch Wentz, but had a bunch of homers off Matz.
The Wentz numbers are encouraging. By keeping hitters off the bases, Wentz may allow a solo home run or two, but he should be able to hold his own. Matz is more at risk at allowing homers to more hitters. It may be critical for him to make sure he retires Paul Goldschmidt as two-run shots by Rougned Odor are more in play with him on the mound.
Logan Allen allowed a pretty neutral .240/.301/.428 slash line to right-handers, skewing a little more to power than average. He wasn’t as dominant against left-handers as Wentz, but only allowed three home runs. He should be able to hold his own by limiting his homers allowed to solo shots, and not letting Rougned get cheap homers.
J.B. Bukauskas allowed righties to have a .269 OBP this year, and was far better against righties than lefties. He’s homer prone, but should have a strong series.
The Dodgers should be able to hold on to late leads with its bullpen. If the Dodgers play their platoons right, their righties dominate right-handed hitters, and their lefties do well against left-handed hitters. David Robertson has a weird reverse platoon-split, but that’s run counter to his career norms, and Bobby Spong allowed each handedness to have neutral success rates, but he’s not a key member of their pen. Los Angeles has both Clayton Kershaw and Eric Groves for the lefties, and that should be enough. If a game goes to extras, Ismael Robles is good enough to get a turn against the Texas left-handers.
The concern may be what to do against Texas’ switch hitters. Francisco Mejia’s been better against righties in his career, but he’s been better against lefties the past two seasons. Ozzie Albies has no real platoon split.
Mejia bats in front of Goldschmidt who is an easy out for pitchers with good control, so Osiris Ramirez may be a good arm to face him. Albies’ ability to get on base is a concern, so I’d keep Clayton Kershaw on to face Albies, but not Groves. There aren’t great options for Albies, so I’d use the right-hander that would be brought on to face the heart of the order.
Texas’ bench is filled with speed and defense players, so there’s no pinch-hit option the Dodgers have to be worried about.
Texas doesn’t run too frequently, but the Dodgers don’t handle the running game well. Texas may be able to steal some offense if Trent Clark or Ozzie Albies are allowed to run successfully.
Key Questions
Will the Rangers be able to batter the Dodgers' left-handed bats?
Can the Dodgers get to Stroman or Syndergaard at least once in the series?
Which bullpen will perform better?
Significant Batter vs Pitcher Matchups
Austin Hedges vs Kyle Hendricks: 2-11, 0 HR
Willie Calhoun vs Kyle Hendricks: 4-13, 0 HR
Luis Urias vs Noah Syndergaard: 1-15, 0 HR
Luis Urias vs Kyle Hendricks: 4-11, 0 HR
Alex Bregman vs Marcus Stroman: 11-43, 1 HR
Alex Bregman vs Josh Staumont: 4-19, 1 HR
Alex Bregman vs Alex Claudio: 4-22, 0 HR
Alex Verdugo vs Kyle Hendricks: 8-20, 2 HR
Jeren Kendall vs Noah Syndergaard: 1-11, 0 HR
Jeren Kendall vs Kyle Hendricks: 4-18, 0 HR
Nomar Mazara vs Noah Syndergaard: 4-17, 1 HR
Nomar Mazara vs Marcus Stroman: 3-13, 0 HR
Nomar Mazara vs Kyle Hendricks: 10-23, 2 HR
Francisco Mejia vs Steven Matz: 5-16, 1 HR
Paul Goldschmidt vs Steven Matz: 6-17, 2 HR
Ozzie Albies vs Clayton Kershaw: 4-17, 0 HR
Rougned Odor vs Steven Matz: 3-16, 0 HR
Cavan Biggio vs Steven Matz: 3-13, 0 HR
Carlos Correa vs Steven Matz: 9-18, 0 HR
Trent Clark vs Joey Wentz: 4-13, 1 HR
Trent Clark vs Logan Allen: 1-10, 0 HR
Ramon Laureano: 2-15, 0 HR
Prediction
The Dodgers have held their own against some of the best pitchers, specifically right-handed pitchers, that the game has had to offer this postseason. However, Thor and Stroman are a cut above everyone else. The Dodgers staff is finally facing a lineup that can feast against left-handed pitching. It'll be a close series, but the Rangers will win a low-scoring Game 7. Rangers 4- 3
Special thanks to Luke Grimelbein who contributed to this article