Post by Commissioner Erick on Sept 19, 2021 15:25:24 GMT -5
Atlanta Braves (91-71) @ San Francisco Giants (99-64)
A brutal collapse in the final 10 days relegated a strong Atlanta Braves team to the Wild Card Game. San Francisco reeled in the Dodgers and forced a Play-In Game for the NL West, but Octavio Lopez was brutal forcing San Francisco to the Wild Card Game. If each team had won their last game, they’d have advanced to the NLDS. Instead, one of these clubs will move on to Milwaukee and the other will have their season finished.
Dave Twibell has won playoff series the past two years, and will look to advance to his first World Series. This is Atlanta’s second straight playoff berth, and they’ll look to send off outgoing GM Aaron Dunham with his playoff win.
Giants Offense versus Braves Pitching
San Francisco’s offense was good, but hardly elite. Good Giants teams have always run high batting averages, and this version is no exception as San Francisco’s .270 average was second in the league. The Giants are the third toughest team in the league to strikeout, but also drew the fifth fewest walks, and hit just the seventh most home runs. How Atlanta’s defense handles balls in play will be a huge key.
San Francisco didn’t run well this year, finishing ninth in Base Running, and 13th in steals. They did lead the league in doubles though, using that to generate runs.
The Giants are built to hit right-handed pitching. Their OPS against lefties is only eighth in the league at .729, but is fifth against righties at .771. Eight batters in their lineup will hit from the left side against righties, with the only right-handed hitter being this year’s batting champ Orlando Arcia.
The middle of the order is very strong. Lefties Calvin Mitchell, Kelyn Klattenburger, and Arturo Rivera each hit at least .285 with 26 home runs, and an .856+ OPS. None struck out more than 11% of the time, and Mitchell and Rivera also stole 11 bases. If anyone is still on base, Orlando Arcia follows up. He led the league in batting with a .323 mark and finished fourth with a .915 OPS. With 36 doubles, and 21 home runs, Arcia wasn’t just a slap hitter.
The rest of the lineup isn’t quite as dangerous. Dan Cabrera hit .273 with 37 doubles and 10 steals as a pretty decent table-setter. The bottom of the order isn’t great shakes though. Sergio Maldonado hit .258 with 16 doubles and 15 homers in the six spot, while Aramis Ademan had a .644 in the seven spot. Henrik Beimer popped just two home runs this year, and Enrique Valdez popped just five. They mostly make contact, don’t walk, and don’t hit for power.
The San Francisco bench mostly consists of even worse hitters who play good defense in Wenceel Perez, Gilberto Flores, and Luis Nunez. Joe Taylor hit .362 in 77 Plate Appearances so he’s demonstrated he can give some punch. Nunez also hits lefties better than righties, making him a decent pinch-hitting threat.
San Francisco will be taking its swings against one of the game’s best in Marc Eberle. The 2015 Cy Young runner up and a World Champion for the US National Team this summer, Eberle is a knuckleballer who has frustrated opposing hitters these past two years. He’s sixth in Home Run rate the past two years among starters with 200 innings pitched as he’s impossible to square up. He struck out 26% of hitters and held batters to a .640 OPS in SunTrust Park.
Eberle also gives his bullpen a rest. He’s led the league in Complete Games the last two years and worked over 200 innings both times. If San Francisco wants to take swings against Atlanta’s relievers, there’s a chance Eberle and Atlanta’s Manager Bot simply never let them.
Atlanta’s pen is pretty solid with a collective 3.49 ERA. That’s only seventh in baseball, but there are some strong bullpens in the league.
Trevor Rogers is the closer, and one of the premier relievers to ever pitch in the PBA. He had a 1.24 ERA this year after a 1.91 mark last season. Lefties hit .108 off him this year after batting .110 last season. No left-hander homered off Rogers this year. All of San Francisco’s best hitters aside from Orlando Arcia are left-handed, so if the Giants trail late, it’s likely a wrap. Rogers has worked 4.2 innings against San Franciso this year, allowing no runs, two hits, no walks, and nine strikeouts.
As the second lefty in the pen, Joe Rogers will take on an outsized role. Lefties hit .163 against him which means he’ll likely match up well. He has weird home/road splits. Hitters hit .118 off him in Atlanta, but .279 on the road.
The rest of Atlanta’s pitchers are right-handed, but most have held righties to low averages. Todd Buondadanna allowed a .546 OPS to lefties and a .445 OPS to righties as a premier reliever. Jim Morgan allowed a .251 average and a .662 OPS to lefties. Brian Villeneueve allowed nine home runs to lefties, but only a .222 average and five doubles. Bobby Wahl allowed a .251 average, but only five doubles and two home runs. That crop should be strong today because they limit the average of lefties.
The more concerning figures in the Atlanta pen are Jorge Cardenas, Hunter Ruth, and Denyi Reyes. Lefties hit .265 with 10 home runs off Cardenas, so he’s simply a bad matchup against any lefty. Ruth and Reyes limited long balls—only three homers to lefties each—but lefties hit .278 off Ruth and .279 off Reyes. They’re pitches San Francisco can get a few hits against to drive in runs without needing a homer.
Atlanta generally has a strong defense, especially at Shortstop. He likely won’t beat out a strong crop this year, but Ronny Mauricio is a Gold Glove Shortstop. Likewise, Art Winkler probably won’t beat out Jeren Kendall for a Gold Glove, but he’s an excellent defender in Center Field.
Basket Case Beniot has been adequate at Second Base, which is big considering the Giants have a lot of lefties. Steve Goode was moved to Right Field and he’s been strong. Any pitches San Francisco drives into the gaps, Winkler and Goode are well suited to chase down.
Braves Offense versus Giants Pitching
The Giants are the second best run-prevention team in the league, while the Braves have the ninth best offense in the league. It will be tough for Atlanta to score.
The Giants will be sending Tripod to the mound, the likely Cy Young runner up this year. Lias has a 2.13 ERA and a 17-3 record, spectacular numbers. He’s been even better at AT&T Park, going 9-0 with a 1.65 ERA. He’s allowed just four home runs at home in 84.1 innings. This is after going 7-1 with a 1.86 ERA last year. His nickname is appropriate as Giants’ fans can take photos of pitching brilliance whenever Tripod is on the hill.
Lias doesn’t always go too deep into games, but San Francisco has the best bullpen ERA in the league in 2.35. Only two of the eight relievers have an ERA over 3, and long man Miguel Diaz is the only one with an ERA over 4, and even he’s better at home. Giants relievers almost universally suppress home runs, and only Aaron Perry has an average higher than .248 against. Perry and Teofilo Torrez are the only arms that walk more than 2.3 batters-per-nine.
It will be a rough proposition asking any opponent to score in AT&T Park today, let alone the team ranked ninth in offense.
Atlanta is only 10th in home runs, which may help them. They’re not a team that needs to hit home runs to score, therefore, they’re not drawing dead against an elite homer-suppression team.
What Atlanta will do is steal bases. They’re first in steals with 137, with Doorbell Gestoso setting a career high with 69, fifth most in PBA history. Ronny Mauricio finished third in the league with 29 in 31 attempts. Gestoso has a .313 average, 39 doubles, and the 69 steals. He has a number of ways to get to second base. Basket Case Benoit is hitting .310. That’s Atlanta’s ticket to offense. Get Doorbell on. Get him to second. Have Basket Case bang a hit to drive him in. If one of the middle order hitters can get to second base, Xander Bogaerts and Mauricio are both hitting over .280. That’s a chance at a run. There won’t be many to come by so Atlanta will need to be aggressive.
Steve Goode had an excellent year, but is a strikeout prone righty facing Tripod. Jimmy McCabe has power, but had a down year with 28 home runs and a .731 OPS. Mikey Polansky was strikeout prone as well and hit .243. Art Winkler and Steven Williams had an OBP under .300.
Tripod did not hold runners well at all, and while San Francisco’s releivers generally limited attempts, they didn’t hold opponents to a low success rate. Atlanta will need its best hitters to cause havoc on the bases to win.
Season Series
The Giants took the season series 4-2, though most games were close. The Braves took a series at home in late August, then San Francisco swept at home in mid-September.
Teofilo Torrez and Octavio Lopez combined on a five-hit shutout to begin the series in Atlanta, with the Giants beating Nate Capriglione 5-0. An Eberle versus Chris Davis duel ended up going 11 innings with a Ronny Maurcio double and Basket Case single allowing the Braves to outlast the Giants and win the middle game.
After both Shane Baz and Kevin Branccacio were ineffective in the finale, both bullpens were terrific. Juan Gestoso doubled off lefty Ricardo Silva with two outs in the ninth, Ronnie Mauricio pulled a single into left and the Braves won the series.
In September, both Capriglione and Diaz were ineffective to begin the series in San Francisco. San Francisco’s bullpen went 8 scoreless innings though allowing the Giants to keep things tied in the 13th. A double, walk, sac bunt, and second walk off Bobby Wahl loaded the bases. Denyi Reyes came on to face Calvin Mitchell and Mitchell slashed a ball into right-center for a walkoff single.
Atlanta, after the long Friday game needed a Saturday bullpen game. Their pitchers couldn’t handle it, and San Francisco comfortably won 8-3 with four hitters picking up three hits. In the finale, Joe Martin failed to retire Klattenburger and Rivera, and stayed on to face Arcia, who blasted a three-run home run. Arcia gave the Giants an insurance run in the 8th, DiSibio struck out Jimmy McCabe with two on base and two outs in the ninth, and the Giants picked up the series sweep and the season-series win.
Deciding Questions
Will any of Atlanta’s sluggers be able to string together a few doubles or a multi-run home run to get some surprise pop?
Will Atlanta be able to wait our Lias and try their hand at the Giants bullpen for a few frames?
Can Eberle dominate a good, lefty-laden Giants middle of the order?
Prediction: Runs will be at a premium and San Francisco’s offense will be a little bit better at scoring them, while its staff is a little bit better at preventing them. Eberle committed three balks and uncorked 12 wild pitches this year. A wild pitch or balk will lead to one of the Giants runs and San Francisco wins a quick, zippy game. Giants 3-1.
A brutal collapse in the final 10 days relegated a strong Atlanta Braves team to the Wild Card Game. San Francisco reeled in the Dodgers and forced a Play-In Game for the NL West, but Octavio Lopez was brutal forcing San Francisco to the Wild Card Game. If each team had won their last game, they’d have advanced to the NLDS. Instead, one of these clubs will move on to Milwaukee and the other will have their season finished.
Dave Twibell has won playoff series the past two years, and will look to advance to his first World Series. This is Atlanta’s second straight playoff berth, and they’ll look to send off outgoing GM Aaron Dunham with his playoff win.
Giants Offense versus Braves Pitching
San Francisco’s offense was good, but hardly elite. Good Giants teams have always run high batting averages, and this version is no exception as San Francisco’s .270 average was second in the league. The Giants are the third toughest team in the league to strikeout, but also drew the fifth fewest walks, and hit just the seventh most home runs. How Atlanta’s defense handles balls in play will be a huge key.
San Francisco didn’t run well this year, finishing ninth in Base Running, and 13th in steals. They did lead the league in doubles though, using that to generate runs.
The Giants are built to hit right-handed pitching. Their OPS against lefties is only eighth in the league at .729, but is fifth against righties at .771. Eight batters in their lineup will hit from the left side against righties, with the only right-handed hitter being this year’s batting champ Orlando Arcia.
The middle of the order is very strong. Lefties Calvin Mitchell, Kelyn Klattenburger, and Arturo Rivera each hit at least .285 with 26 home runs, and an .856+ OPS. None struck out more than 11% of the time, and Mitchell and Rivera also stole 11 bases. If anyone is still on base, Orlando Arcia follows up. He led the league in batting with a .323 mark and finished fourth with a .915 OPS. With 36 doubles, and 21 home runs, Arcia wasn’t just a slap hitter.
The rest of the lineup isn’t quite as dangerous. Dan Cabrera hit .273 with 37 doubles and 10 steals as a pretty decent table-setter. The bottom of the order isn’t great shakes though. Sergio Maldonado hit .258 with 16 doubles and 15 homers in the six spot, while Aramis Ademan had a .644 in the seven spot. Henrik Beimer popped just two home runs this year, and Enrique Valdez popped just five. They mostly make contact, don’t walk, and don’t hit for power.
The San Francisco bench mostly consists of even worse hitters who play good defense in Wenceel Perez, Gilberto Flores, and Luis Nunez. Joe Taylor hit .362 in 77 Plate Appearances so he’s demonstrated he can give some punch. Nunez also hits lefties better than righties, making him a decent pinch-hitting threat.
San Francisco will be taking its swings against one of the game’s best in Marc Eberle. The 2015 Cy Young runner up and a World Champion for the US National Team this summer, Eberle is a knuckleballer who has frustrated opposing hitters these past two years. He’s sixth in Home Run rate the past two years among starters with 200 innings pitched as he’s impossible to square up. He struck out 26% of hitters and held batters to a .640 OPS in SunTrust Park.
Eberle also gives his bullpen a rest. He’s led the league in Complete Games the last two years and worked over 200 innings both times. If San Francisco wants to take swings against Atlanta’s relievers, there’s a chance Eberle and Atlanta’s Manager Bot simply never let them.
Atlanta’s pen is pretty solid with a collective 3.49 ERA. That’s only seventh in baseball, but there are some strong bullpens in the league.
Trevor Rogers is the closer, and one of the premier relievers to ever pitch in the PBA. He had a 1.24 ERA this year after a 1.91 mark last season. Lefties hit .108 off him this year after batting .110 last season. No left-hander homered off Rogers this year. All of San Francisco’s best hitters aside from Orlando Arcia are left-handed, so if the Giants trail late, it’s likely a wrap. Rogers has worked 4.2 innings against San Franciso this year, allowing no runs, two hits, no walks, and nine strikeouts.
As the second lefty in the pen, Joe Rogers will take on an outsized role. Lefties hit .163 against him which means he’ll likely match up well. He has weird home/road splits. Hitters hit .118 off him in Atlanta, but .279 on the road.
The rest of Atlanta’s pitchers are right-handed, but most have held righties to low averages. Todd Buondadanna allowed a .546 OPS to lefties and a .445 OPS to righties as a premier reliever. Jim Morgan allowed a .251 average and a .662 OPS to lefties. Brian Villeneueve allowed nine home runs to lefties, but only a .222 average and five doubles. Bobby Wahl allowed a .251 average, but only five doubles and two home runs. That crop should be strong today because they limit the average of lefties.
The more concerning figures in the Atlanta pen are Jorge Cardenas, Hunter Ruth, and Denyi Reyes. Lefties hit .265 with 10 home runs off Cardenas, so he’s simply a bad matchup against any lefty. Ruth and Reyes limited long balls—only three homers to lefties each—but lefties hit .278 off Ruth and .279 off Reyes. They’re pitches San Francisco can get a few hits against to drive in runs without needing a homer.
Atlanta generally has a strong defense, especially at Shortstop. He likely won’t beat out a strong crop this year, but Ronny Mauricio is a Gold Glove Shortstop. Likewise, Art Winkler probably won’t beat out Jeren Kendall for a Gold Glove, but he’s an excellent defender in Center Field.
Basket Case Beniot has been adequate at Second Base, which is big considering the Giants have a lot of lefties. Steve Goode was moved to Right Field and he’s been strong. Any pitches San Francisco drives into the gaps, Winkler and Goode are well suited to chase down.
Braves Offense versus Giants Pitching
The Giants are the second best run-prevention team in the league, while the Braves have the ninth best offense in the league. It will be tough for Atlanta to score.
The Giants will be sending Tripod to the mound, the likely Cy Young runner up this year. Lias has a 2.13 ERA and a 17-3 record, spectacular numbers. He’s been even better at AT&T Park, going 9-0 with a 1.65 ERA. He’s allowed just four home runs at home in 84.1 innings. This is after going 7-1 with a 1.86 ERA last year. His nickname is appropriate as Giants’ fans can take photos of pitching brilliance whenever Tripod is on the hill.
Lias doesn’t always go too deep into games, but San Francisco has the best bullpen ERA in the league in 2.35. Only two of the eight relievers have an ERA over 3, and long man Miguel Diaz is the only one with an ERA over 4, and even he’s better at home. Giants relievers almost universally suppress home runs, and only Aaron Perry has an average higher than .248 against. Perry and Teofilo Torrez are the only arms that walk more than 2.3 batters-per-nine.
It will be a rough proposition asking any opponent to score in AT&T Park today, let alone the team ranked ninth in offense.
Atlanta is only 10th in home runs, which may help them. They’re not a team that needs to hit home runs to score, therefore, they’re not drawing dead against an elite homer-suppression team.
What Atlanta will do is steal bases. They’re first in steals with 137, with Doorbell Gestoso setting a career high with 69, fifth most in PBA history. Ronny Mauricio finished third in the league with 29 in 31 attempts. Gestoso has a .313 average, 39 doubles, and the 69 steals. He has a number of ways to get to second base. Basket Case Benoit is hitting .310. That’s Atlanta’s ticket to offense. Get Doorbell on. Get him to second. Have Basket Case bang a hit to drive him in. If one of the middle order hitters can get to second base, Xander Bogaerts and Mauricio are both hitting over .280. That’s a chance at a run. There won’t be many to come by so Atlanta will need to be aggressive.
Steve Goode had an excellent year, but is a strikeout prone righty facing Tripod. Jimmy McCabe has power, but had a down year with 28 home runs and a .731 OPS. Mikey Polansky was strikeout prone as well and hit .243. Art Winkler and Steven Williams had an OBP under .300.
Tripod did not hold runners well at all, and while San Francisco’s releivers generally limited attempts, they didn’t hold opponents to a low success rate. Atlanta will need its best hitters to cause havoc on the bases to win.
Season Series
The Giants took the season series 4-2, though most games were close. The Braves took a series at home in late August, then San Francisco swept at home in mid-September.
Teofilo Torrez and Octavio Lopez combined on a five-hit shutout to begin the series in Atlanta, with the Giants beating Nate Capriglione 5-0. An Eberle versus Chris Davis duel ended up going 11 innings with a Ronny Maurcio double and Basket Case single allowing the Braves to outlast the Giants and win the middle game.
After both Shane Baz and Kevin Branccacio were ineffective in the finale, both bullpens were terrific. Juan Gestoso doubled off lefty Ricardo Silva with two outs in the ninth, Ronnie Mauricio pulled a single into left and the Braves won the series.
In September, both Capriglione and Diaz were ineffective to begin the series in San Francisco. San Francisco’s bullpen went 8 scoreless innings though allowing the Giants to keep things tied in the 13th. A double, walk, sac bunt, and second walk off Bobby Wahl loaded the bases. Denyi Reyes came on to face Calvin Mitchell and Mitchell slashed a ball into right-center for a walkoff single.
Atlanta, after the long Friday game needed a Saturday bullpen game. Their pitchers couldn’t handle it, and San Francisco comfortably won 8-3 with four hitters picking up three hits. In the finale, Joe Martin failed to retire Klattenburger and Rivera, and stayed on to face Arcia, who blasted a three-run home run. Arcia gave the Giants an insurance run in the 8th, DiSibio struck out Jimmy McCabe with two on base and two outs in the ninth, and the Giants picked up the series sweep and the season-series win.
Deciding Questions
Will any of Atlanta’s sluggers be able to string together a few doubles or a multi-run home run to get some surprise pop?
Will Atlanta be able to wait our Lias and try their hand at the Giants bullpen for a few frames?
Can Eberle dominate a good, lefty-laden Giants middle of the order?
Prediction: Runs will be at a premium and San Francisco’s offense will be a little bit better at scoring them, while its staff is a little bit better at preventing them. Eberle committed three balks and uncorked 12 wild pitches this year. A wild pitch or balk will lead to one of the Giants runs and San Francisco wins a quick, zippy game. Giants 3-1.