2026 ALDS Preview: KC vs. BAL
Sept 19, 2021 16:47:31 GMT -5
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Post by Grubs - Philly on Sept 19, 2021 16:47:31 GMT -5
Kansas City Royals (95-67) vs. Baltimore Orioles (95-67)
The two teams rode identical records to division titles, but Kansas City’s run differential sets them apart. Both teams are at the top of the league splits against RHP and have had decent success against LHP. There’s no clear handedness advantage off the mound, as both squads fare about the same as the other versus lefty and righty batters. Defense is a clear differentiator here, as the Orioles are near the bottom of many league metrics.
Baltimore offense vs. Kansas City pitching
Baltimore isn’t afraid to add a bat first and figure out the defensive scheme later. The team sports a powerful lineup that should scare the hell out of opposing pitchers and, in fact, led the league with 266 home runs. But they probably should’ve hit 300+ and have been underperforming all year long. Joe DeCarlo at 3B and 1B Francisco DeJesus are both having markedly down years, as is 2B Mike Floyd, who notched a career-low OPS and didn’t break 1 WAR this year (thanks largely to his “defense”). Bright spots included Wessell Russchen who missed a chunk of the year but still nearly notched a 5 WAR season. Emmanuel Tapia was solid as a DH and outfielder Jadon Ancrum has been terrific.
The Orioles can swipe the odd bag, but depend more on timing than blistering speed to get the job done. When they do take off, they’re reasonably successful.
While some teams enter the playoffs with a who-will-pitch-when dilemma, the Royals have a rotation that is solid, if unspectacular, and a bullpen that works in much the same fashion. Daniel Kent could be forgiven for not remembering who’s on the mound because these guys are all the same.
Tyler Alexander and his pinpoint control lead the way. He won’t sit a lot of guys down, but Alexander has four pitches he can throw for strikes. He pounds the zone and mixes a fastball and slider with a curve and changeup, generating weak contact. He’s the most homer-prone of the rotation, but that says very little, as he’s also the only guy allowing more than one home run per 9. Dakota Hudson and C.J.Hoover are stunningly similar. Nobody in the rotation strikes out even 8 guys per nine innings, but they’re all effective. Kansas City also walked the fewest batters of any staff in the PBA.
In the bullpen, Jacquan Chassagne has both a dominant name and dominant stuff, but there’s also a steady late-inning presence who never-(Joe)-Shilts-himself. In fact, Shilts might be the key to this bullpen’s effectiveness.
Kansas City offense vs. Baltimore pitching
The Royals are a speedy, patient squad that, despite having a clear disadvantage to the Orioles in the power department, managed a higher OPS than the Charm City crew. This is a team that, for years, has drilled the fundamentals, then drilled and drilled them again. It’s paying off. That’s not to say the Royals are devoid of power. Consensus AL Rookie of the Year Jorge Vargas has been a pure stud at first base, with a 1.026 OPS that’s second in the PBA only to Andrew Benintendi. He’s filled the power gap for 1B Joe Rizzo, whose 9 home runs are a Todd Helton-esque turn for the worse.
Kansas City’s lineup is so well-rounded this year. Among the five guys with the most stolen bases – Xavier Edwards, Jim Sattler, Joshua Lowe, Quentin Holmes and Grant Burton – the lowest batting average is .285. The pentaverate has a combined WAR of 20+ to go along with 74 stolen bases. It makes one wonder if Vargas should be hitting sixth instead of third.
Baltimore’s pitching has been hamstrung by two factors. The first is defense and the second is that it’s not 2025. Last year, the Orioles had a lot of guys pitching better than they ever had before. This year, they’ve come down to earth and are hurling almost as many f-bombs into gloves as they are Ks. Guys like Tommy Stanfield and Devin Ortiz have FIPs about 1.4 points below their ERA. Sam Carlson has been the lone bright spot in the rotation, with 244 strikeouts and 200+ innings. Stanfield is striking out a ton of guys – and as a squad, the Orioles have better than 400 more strikeouts than Royals pitchers. They don’t walk an obscenely high number of batters. It’s the defense here...and maybe some bad-luck BABIP...that’s letting down the Orioles.
Defense
Kansas City has the definite edge here. Both teams have an underperforming corner spot in the outfield and solid CF pieces with Wessel Russchen for the Orioles and Quentin Holmes/Humberto Camacho for the Royals. There’s no clear advantage for would-be base stealers. The difference comes in the infield.
Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in team zone and defensive efficiency. With Mike Floyd back at 2B and DeJesus at 1B, an error-prone Joe DeCarlo at 3B and Yunior Severino leading a trio of players at shortstop who all provide worse-than-average defense, Kansas City’s speed might lead to an extra run or two — at the least.
Kansas City is rock-solid up the middle, an enviable position for any team heading into the high-pressure playoff environment. Shortstop Xavier Edwards is Gold Glove caliber. The team is weaker at 3B and RF, but neither position has been crippling for the Royals.
What to watch for:
This is a seven-game series, not a season, and if the Orioles avoid key errors and some of their bats return to normal (amazing playoff hitters like DeJesus and DeCarlo and DeTellez), they could upend the Royals. It’s a formula that hasn’t quite worked all season, but still netted 95 wins.
The Royals are just so deep. No one needs to carry the team, and that could make for a frustrating matchup for the Orioles. Kansas City seems to have more room for error (and errors) than Baltimore.
Prediction: Royals in 6
Questions for Daniel Kent:
Do you plan to go with four starters? If so, who gets shuffled to the bullpen? If not, who becomes your fifth starter?
You have four guys who can close...do you have a favorite? Will you ride the hot hand or stick with a committee?
Is Joe Rizzo assured of a place in the lineup?
Questions for Vic Black:
Do you have plans to shuffle your defensive lineup, or will you let it ride and hope for some clutch defense?
Who are the lefty arms in your pen for this series?
You have some tough lineup decisions to make. Rowdy Tellez is a playoff god and it seems like you’ll have a really good fourth outfielder on the bench in Siani or – is it possible? – Russchen. Any insight into what lineups you’ll be rolling out?
The two teams rode identical records to division titles, but Kansas City’s run differential sets them apart. Both teams are at the top of the league splits against RHP and have had decent success against LHP. There’s no clear handedness advantage off the mound, as both squads fare about the same as the other versus lefty and righty batters. Defense is a clear differentiator here, as the Orioles are near the bottom of many league metrics.
Baltimore offense vs. Kansas City pitching
Baltimore isn’t afraid to add a bat first and figure out the defensive scheme later. The team sports a powerful lineup that should scare the hell out of opposing pitchers and, in fact, led the league with 266 home runs. But they probably should’ve hit 300+ and have been underperforming all year long. Joe DeCarlo at 3B and 1B Francisco DeJesus are both having markedly down years, as is 2B Mike Floyd, who notched a career-low OPS and didn’t break 1 WAR this year (thanks largely to his “defense”). Bright spots included Wessell Russchen who missed a chunk of the year but still nearly notched a 5 WAR season. Emmanuel Tapia was solid as a DH and outfielder Jadon Ancrum has been terrific.
The Orioles can swipe the odd bag, but depend more on timing than blistering speed to get the job done. When they do take off, they’re reasonably successful.
While some teams enter the playoffs with a who-will-pitch-when dilemma, the Royals have a rotation that is solid, if unspectacular, and a bullpen that works in much the same fashion. Daniel Kent could be forgiven for not remembering who’s on the mound because these guys are all the same.
Tyler Alexander and his pinpoint control lead the way. He won’t sit a lot of guys down, but Alexander has four pitches he can throw for strikes. He pounds the zone and mixes a fastball and slider with a curve and changeup, generating weak contact. He’s the most homer-prone of the rotation, but that says very little, as he’s also the only guy allowing more than one home run per 9. Dakota Hudson and C.J.Hoover are stunningly similar. Nobody in the rotation strikes out even 8 guys per nine innings, but they’re all effective. Kansas City also walked the fewest batters of any staff in the PBA.
In the bullpen, Jacquan Chassagne has both a dominant name and dominant stuff, but there’s also a steady late-inning presence who never-(Joe)-Shilts-himself. In fact, Shilts might be the key to this bullpen’s effectiveness.
Kansas City offense vs. Baltimore pitching
The Royals are a speedy, patient squad that, despite having a clear disadvantage to the Orioles in the power department, managed a higher OPS than the Charm City crew. This is a team that, for years, has drilled the fundamentals, then drilled and drilled them again. It’s paying off. That’s not to say the Royals are devoid of power. Consensus AL Rookie of the Year Jorge Vargas has been a pure stud at first base, with a 1.026 OPS that’s second in the PBA only to Andrew Benintendi. He’s filled the power gap for 1B Joe Rizzo, whose 9 home runs are a Todd Helton-esque turn for the worse.
Kansas City’s lineup is so well-rounded this year. Among the five guys with the most stolen bases – Xavier Edwards, Jim Sattler, Joshua Lowe, Quentin Holmes and Grant Burton – the lowest batting average is .285. The pentaverate has a combined WAR of 20+ to go along with 74 stolen bases. It makes one wonder if Vargas should be hitting sixth instead of third.
Baltimore’s pitching has been hamstrung by two factors. The first is defense and the second is that it’s not 2025. Last year, the Orioles had a lot of guys pitching better than they ever had before. This year, they’ve come down to earth and are hurling almost as many f-bombs into gloves as they are Ks. Guys like Tommy Stanfield and Devin Ortiz have FIPs about 1.4 points below their ERA. Sam Carlson has been the lone bright spot in the rotation, with 244 strikeouts and 200+ innings. Stanfield is striking out a ton of guys – and as a squad, the Orioles have better than 400 more strikeouts than Royals pitchers. They don’t walk an obscenely high number of batters. It’s the defense here...and maybe some bad-luck BABIP...that’s letting down the Orioles.
Defense
Kansas City has the definite edge here. Both teams have an underperforming corner spot in the outfield and solid CF pieces with Wessel Russchen for the Orioles and Quentin Holmes/Humberto Camacho for the Royals. There’s no clear advantage for would-be base stealers. The difference comes in the infield.
Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in team zone and defensive efficiency. With Mike Floyd back at 2B and DeJesus at 1B, an error-prone Joe DeCarlo at 3B and Yunior Severino leading a trio of players at shortstop who all provide worse-than-average defense, Kansas City’s speed might lead to an extra run or two — at the least.
Kansas City is rock-solid up the middle, an enviable position for any team heading into the high-pressure playoff environment. Shortstop Xavier Edwards is Gold Glove caliber. The team is weaker at 3B and RF, but neither position has been crippling for the Royals.
What to watch for:
This is a seven-game series, not a season, and if the Orioles avoid key errors and some of their bats return to normal (amazing playoff hitters like DeJesus and DeCarlo and DeTellez), they could upend the Royals. It’s a formula that hasn’t quite worked all season, but still netted 95 wins.
The Royals are just so deep. No one needs to carry the team, and that could make for a frustrating matchup for the Orioles. Kansas City seems to have more room for error (and errors) than Baltimore.
Prediction: Royals in 6
Questions for Daniel Kent:
Do you plan to go with four starters? If so, who gets shuffled to the bullpen? If not, who becomes your fifth starter?
You have four guys who can close...do you have a favorite? Will you ride the hot hand or stick with a committee?
Is Joe Rizzo assured of a place in the lineup?
Questions for Vic Black:
Do you have plans to shuffle your defensive lineup, or will you let it ride and hope for some clutch defense?
Who are the lefty arms in your pen for this series?
You have some tough lineup decisions to make. Rowdy Tellez is a playoff god and it seems like you’ll have a really good fourth outfielder on the bench in Siani or – is it possible? – Russchen. Any insight into what lineups you’ll be rolling out?
