Post by brewersgm on Sept 19, 2021 17:20:37 GMT -5
Seattle Mariners (97-65) vs Houston Astros (93-69)
The Mariners returned to form and are back in the playoffs after missing them last year. The Astros return to the playoffs after years of mismanagement and neglect from a rolling cavalcade of GMs. This is Houston's first playoff appearance since 2019. It's an AL West showdown in Seattle for this year's AL Wildcard game, with the winner going on to play the AL West champion Texas Rangers.
Lineups
Mariners:
Perhaps the most notable part of this Mariners lineup is who it is missing. Longtime superstar 1B Francisco DeJesus was traded away this offseason in a move baseball analysts found puzzling. But the team had no trouble replacing him with everyone's favorite 1B Wilmer Flores. No one told us life was gonna be this way but Wilmer Flores handily outperformed DeJesus this year slashing 313/357/531 to go along with 33 bombs. He was there for the Mariners offense like DeJesus had been there before. 1B wasn't the only position the Mariners upgraded at, 2B Ivan Johnson emerged as as special talent as well, more than replacing the production of Aramis Ademan. Johnson hit 23 homers along with great defense at 2B. Former Brewer Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and playoff god Brian C. Miller turned in great seasons as well. Overall the team finished with the 7th best wOBA in the American League. The lineup also proved incredibly hard to strike out, whiffing only 1085 times all year, good for 2nd in the AL.
Astros:
If I'm honest, I didn't realize Maikel Franco was still in the league, but he's now put up two of the best years of his career in back to back seasons. He hit 36 homers for the Astros this year, but that wasn't enough to lead the team. Ichisake Ochiai hit 42 home runs and quietly already has 118 career home runs at the age of 23. The Brewers are very happy the former Cubs farmhand found his way to Houston. Ichisake is one of the best and most overlooked LH power hitters in the league. The Mariners will have to pitch him carefully. Ichisake has trouble with left handed pitching but the Mariners only have a single left handed pitcher on their team to throw at him. Austin Meadows was acquired from the Cardinals before the season began and had a career best year with the bat hitting for a 120 OPS+ to go along with great CF defense. The Astros lineup was only top 5 in one category, slugging percentage, but they were above average at all aspects of hitting which helped them to finish 6th in the AL in wOBA.
Defenses
Mariners:
The Mariners only had negative ZR at two positions, CF and RF. The rest of their team was made up of strong defensive players leading to the top finish in defensive efficiency in the AL. Lucius Fox and Ivan Johnson were a fantastic double play combo up the middle and despite their ages, Wilmer and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. were still plus defenders at the IF corners. The outfield defense is concerning however in Seattle against a great slugging team like Houston. The Mariners will likely have their work cut out for them tracking deep fly balls.
Astros:
The Astros finished top 4 in defensive efficiency.. Austin Meadows, Freudis Nova and Wyatt Cross were the big reasons for that as each put up excellent defensive seasons at premium defensive positions. Ichisake isn't a great defender in RF but Meadows range helps to make up for that. What they will have trouble with however is ground balls hit towards Dansby Swanson. The 32 year old Swanson really showed his age this season and was a negative defender at SS. Seattle's got several good RH bats who should feast on this weakness.
Edge: Mariners.
Starter
Mariners:
The Mariners have both Jeifry Nunez and Damian Mendoza rested and either former Royal could be given the nod today. Both are good options to have, but Nunez is likely the better option having pitched to a 2.49 ERA vs the Astros this year. He struck out 23 Astros across four starts and only walked five batters. In his two home starts against Houston this year he did not allow a single run over 10 IP. Nunez features one of the best sliders in the league and a very good fastball. He also throws a changeup which he uses heavily against left handers. He's coming off his best start of the year a 6.2 IP 3H 1ER 13K performance vs the A's and he'll look to put in another quality start against another AL West opponent.
Astros:
Houston will be unable to throw their best starter against the Astros today. Jorge "deGrominator" Cotto led the AL in wins this year. That came at the price of having to pitch last week to make sure the Astros made it into the playoffs. He is exhausted and won't be able to pitch today. Houston can go with two rookie options, either Sergio Murillo or Jeff Morrison. Murillo has looked overwhelmed by the majors and with a 6.34 ERA on the year, and a 6.97 against the Mariners, he shouldn't be given the ball. That leaves former #1 overall pick Jeff Morrison. Despite his minor league career being grossly mismanaged by former Astros GMs, Morrison made it to the show this year and had a respectable 2.1 WAR season. He had two starts against the Mariners, he was blown up at home by them but pitched well on the road. This is encouraging for Houston as they will be on the road for this game.
Edge: Mariners. Nunez handled the Astros all season and Morrison is getting his first taste of playoff ball. If Houston hands the ball to Murillo the Mariners can punch their ALDS tickets.
Bullpens
Mariners:
Curt Gemma came over from the Giants and was fantastic for the Mariners this season. He threw 88 IP of 2.35 ERA baseball and had a 3.1 WAR out of the pen for Seattle. Michael Lorenzon and Ryan Dull showed no signs of slowing down this season as well. At age 34 and 37 respectively, they both turned in sub 2 ERA years. Anyelo Luna was the only reliever who really struggled this year for the Mariners. He's the only member of the pen with an ERA over 4.
Astros:
Antonio Santillan has bounced around several teams in his time in the PBA. He has found a home in Houston. He had a 0.80 ERA and 41 saves this year for the Astros and should be a favorite for AL reliever of the year. Mitchell Stone, Cionel Perez, and John Gavin were also plus relievers for the Astros this season. The team has 4 lefty relievers which will help them mix and match against the Mariners balanced lineup.
Edge: Again a pretty even match-up. The Mariners finished 2nd in bullpen ERA in the AL with a 3.05 mark and the Astros 3rd at 3.28. Both teams have a guy who can shutdown and finish the game when he enters. It might just be a matter of who can jump out to the lead.
Key questions:
We've had some late BREAKING NEWS that Murillo will be getting the nod for the Astros. Will he beat the odds and pitch well today?
Can Nunez continue his dominance of the Astros bats?
Who wins in a match up between Playoff Legend Brian "Clutch" Miller and the 4 lefties out of the Astros pen?
Prediction: 7-3 Mariners. The Mariners jump out to the lead against Murillo and get the ball to Gemma who finishes the Astros off and sends them back to Texas and the Mariners to Texas.