Post by Commissioner Erick on Sept 21, 2021 17:50:05 GMT -5
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets
The New York Mets were a drifting franchise is a sea of juggernauts in the NL East. They overachieved all season, entering the final week with a playoff berth possible despite a negative run differential. They surged through that final week, sweeping the Atlanta Braves in three gut check wins to take the NL East for the first time since 2018. Their season is already a huge success, but there’s hope for better. The Mets have a .500 record this season against the San Francisco Giants and a winning record against every other playoff team—including their NLDS opponent, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Los Angeles staved off a late collapse to come back in impressive fashion in the NL West play in game to clinch the division. The Dodgers will get a measure of breathing room in the NLDS, not needing to win a do-or-die Wild Card Game to continue their journey. The Dodgers have made it to the World Series in back-to-back seasons, winning last year’s title. They’ll look to earn their third consecutive pennant and win a second consecutive title.
Dodgers Offense versus Mets Pitching
The Mets were fourth in run prevention this year and the Dodgers were tied for second in runs, making this a very fun matchup. The Dodgers did fade in September, producing just the ninth most runs in the NL in the month, but did so with Jeren Kendall injured. His injury forced Alex Verdugo and Seiya Suzuki into full time roles. Verdugo had a respectable month, but hit just one homer during September. Suzuki had a .561 OPS after a strong summer, and finds himself on the bench with Kendall back in the lineup.
While Kendall is a somewhat erratic hitter with big boom or bust potential, he brings significant upside to the lineup and forces the Dodgers to drop a weak player from the lineup. Los Angeles doesn’t have a great ton of depth so his return is a welcome one, even without a defensive boost Kendall provides.
The top of the Dodgers offense can hang with anyone in the NL. Five hitters hit at least .284, and four hit at least 20 home runs. Luis Robert hasn’t been quite as good as what Nomar Mazara is and has been, but Robert hit .284 with 30 homers, stayed healthy all year, and hit lefties as well as righties. Alex Bregman’s repeated his excellent seasons of the recent past, with any declines mostly attuned to league effects. Luis Urias has rebounded from a down year to put up a .310 average that’s fourth in the league.
They’ve all been excellent hitting in front of a pair of sluggers that crush right-handed pitching in Willie Calhoun, who was fourth in the league in RBIs, and Jorge Ramos, who had an .860 OPS as a Rookie.
It’s as strong a top five as any, especially against right-handed pitching.
The bottom of the lineup isn’t great, but is serviceable. Alex Verdugo bangs enough doubles to be a fine offensive player if not asked to do too much. Jeren Kendall can occasionally run into a home run, and his weak contact can result in an infield hit with his speed. Fidel Mejia somehow hit .323 this year and may start, or Amin Valdez, having a disappointing season, may see his 28 steals return to the lineup. Valdez has also had a strong offensive year as recently as last year, when he hit .298 with 20 homers. Keibert Ruiz hit 13 home runs last year.
Again, it’s a fine bottom of the order—particularly against righties.
Against lefties, Calhoun’s OPS drops .150 points, Ramos’ drops nearly .130 Verdugo hits .235 with just two home runs (though with strong career marks against lefties), and Wuilmer Becerra enters the lineup keeping him from being a pinch-hitting silver bullet. Good lefties are likely to key to holding down the Dodgers, though their pitching and defense give them some margin for error.
Suzuki isn’t the worst slugger to have on the bench, Becerra can pinch hit and crush lefties, and if Valdez doesn’t start, he’s a pinch-running weapon off the bench. Against lefty starters, Kendall comes in and subs in Center if the Dodgers are leading or tries to get a hold of one against a righty reliever. It’s not the worst bench if the Dodgers need to mix and match late.
While the Dodgers may be vulnerable to lefties, the Mets only have two lefties—strong starter Jefferson Escorcha, and long man and former Dodger Logan Allen. Each pitcher has relied heavily on a strong Mets defense to help them out as neither has a high strikeout rate. The Mets defense is first in defensive efficiency and third in zone rating.
Ynmanol Martinez is a terrible offensive player, but an exceptional defensive Second Baseman. Luis Torribio is an exceptional defensive Shortstop. KeBryan Hayes is a two-time Gold Glove winner at Third Base. Luis Morales and Mookie Betts will be in the Gold Glove conversation in the corner outfield spots. Arturo Ramirez is a strong defensive outfielder off the bench, and Sean Mendoza can really flash the leather as a backup middle infielder. This is a defense that gets after it and provided the infrastructure for the Mets to overachieve. They may not hit well, but they’ve helped a solid but unspectacular collection of arms turn in an awesome season, and defense tends to travel well to the playoffs.
The Mets were excellent at keeping the ball in the park, and they also struck out hitters at a good clip despite allowing a fair amount of walks. Since those walks don’t turn into home runs though, they win with suppressing BABIP, holding opponents to a .284 BABIP, second worst in the league. That’s bad news for a Dodgers team that’s collectively 10th in BABIP. The Dodgers mostly simply didn’t have anyone overperform in BABIP—all their regulars, assuming Amin Valdez starts, are within a relatively narrow band of between .286 and .319 in BABIP. It’s a consistent team in terms of BABIP.
Shohei Otani will likely start Game 1 for the Mets. Like all their starters, he limits homers, but he also led the league in innings and walks. He’s much better against righties than lefties, so lefties towards the bottom of the Dodgers lineup may be key against him. If he’s walking Calhoun or Ramos and Kendall or Verdugo are up with men on, they’re the ones who will need to produce.
Ryan Beyer is an up-and-coming phenom. He struck out 223 in only 158 innings, really limits opponents’ average, and can stymie any offense. He’s also produced just seven Quality Starts as he failed to go 5 innings in 14 of 32 starts, and each of his last four.
Jacob Stevens limited opponents to a .279 BABIP to offset striking out only 128 batters in 175.1 innings. Andre Stinson was a more extreme version of Stevens, holding opponents to a league low BABIP of .241
While only striking out 99 hitters in 185.2 innings. Only Dillon Overton had a lower strikeout rate. It’s hard to imagine Stinson holding up with such a low strikeout rate, but he did work an 8 inning, 1-run outing against the Dodgers earlier this season.
The short relievers for the Mets are strong. Andres Perez set a PBA record for saves with 50 in 54 chances. The Mets played a ton of close games, giving Perez ample chances to lock down late innings. Perez is a heavy ground ball pitcher, who allowed just five doubles all year. He did give up eight long balls, and also issued a .337 BABIP, so limiting the doubles was huge.
The Mets also have last year’s Saves leader setting up for them in Dan Altavilla. Another groundballer, Altavilla will hang pitches that turn into homers, but he also allowed just six doubles and had hitters hit just .196 off him. Finally, Jorge Guzman completely turned his career around. After putting up a 6.78 ERA last year with the Yankees, he went across town and put up a 2.78 ERA this year. He allowed a fair amount of doubles, but just two long balls. He had the fourth highest groundball rate in the league among pitchers with 50+ innings, forcing hitters to beat the Mets defense multiple times to score.
The Mets right-handed middle relievers are less reliable than their short relievers, with each of them with an ERA in the 4s. Dillon Tate, Raheem Owusu, and Tony Gonzalez all allowed more than a home run per nine innings and are risky against the power-hitting lefties in the Dodgers lineup.
Mets Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
This matchup is a huge mismatch. The Mets won with pitching and defense, putting up the third worst offense in the NL. The Dodgers had the fifth best run prevention unit in the league, with their playoff unit likely to be much better than their regular season unit.
Former Met Matt Cleveland would have the third best ERA in the league would he have enough innings to qualify, with a 3.11 ERA, an 11-3 record, and an outstanding 30% strikeout rate. He’s come into his own with the Dodgers.
J.B. Bukauskas will likely get one start in Game 4. He’s homer prone, and the one aspect the Mets are respectable in is home run power. Bukauskas has respectable stuff with a strikeout rate over 20, but his walk rate is ticking up, he yields a high average, and he’s given up eight home runs in 23 career playoff innings. Ben Vincent may bank on the fact that the Mets don’t have a potent enough offense to take advantage of Bukauskas, and that Corey Kluber looked dreadful in the NL West Play-In Game.
The Dodgers’ rotation is rounded out by a pair of lefties. Eduardo Rodriguez is still adjusting to pitching with a torn rotator cuff. The strikeout rate has plummeted, and his home run rate is the highest it’s been since 2020. However, Rodriguez is still throwing strikes and keeping a pristine walk rate. He’s been fantastic against lefties, though his postseason history is sketchy.
He'll be balanced by Joey Wentz, 2025 Postseason Hero, with a 3-1, 3.47 lifetime postseason record. Wentz’ strikeout rate dipped this year, and he didn’t produce the same dampened BABIP he put up last year, leading to a 4.35 ERA. He’s a fly ball pitcher who’s getting Jeren Kendall back, which should be a boost, and many of his other metrics are similar to what they were last year. He should be a reliable option.
The Dodgers expected bullpen goes eight deep with seven pitchers bringing ERAs in the 2s. The one holdout, Giovanny Gallegos, has a respectable 3.51 ERA and strikes out more than a batter an inning, yields less than a homer an inning, has no platoon split this year, and has totally fine walks metrics. Maybe against the best of the best lineups he’d be a concern. Against New York, he and the rest of the Dodgers bullpen look menacing.
The Mets were in the bottom three of most of the major statistical categories, and even some of the lesser ones like doubles. They hit just .238 as a team with only KeBryan Hayes and Mookie Betts with averages above .247. Jose Peraza did hit .311, but in only 241 Plate Appearances.
The Mets will try to keep it close and hope for enough solo home runs to win. The Mets will go seven deep with double-digit home run hitters, which is a more of an accomplishment in this run environment than normal. Three hitters have more than 20, including Luis Morales with 29, Anderson Franco with 28, and Hayes with 22. Otani also has 14 in just 107 games. The Mets don’t have significant platoon splits, playing the same way at home and on the road, against lefties or righties.
They even have a disadvantage when Otani is pitching—it takes his bat out of the lineup and forces in one of the Mets defense-only backups. For example, they can go with Sean Mendoza and his .510 OPS in 115 games. Ricardo Cespedes becomes an option, with his .556 OPS and -1.1 WAR. Maybe Arturo Ramirez’ .618 mark is an enticing option for them?
No matter what, it’s going to be tough for the Mets to score unless the Dodgers help them out defensively. Los Angeles has a huge gulf in outfield defense versus infield defense. Los Angeles will haul in anything hit to the outfield if Kendall, Verdugo, and Ramos are the trio running things down. Anything hit to Urias and Valdez can sneak through and become a hit though. The duo is sure-handed at least and doesn’t commit many errors—if the Mets hit their grounders weakly, they’ll be able to make plays.
The Mets have decent team speed and may look to get the running game going to get offense, where the Dodgers are an average unit both in preventing attempts and throwing guys out.
Season Series
The Mets took two series from the Dodgers in August to take the season series 5-2. Anderson Franco doubled, homered, and drove in three as the Mets hit Joey Wentz hard in taking the opener 7-4. The Dodgers managed only four hits in the game, and only one in 5 frames by Jefferson Escorcha. The Dodgers rebounded the next day with 17 hits in a balanced attack where they won 10-3. Jacob Stevens, Dillon Tate, and Tony Gonzalez were hit hard.
The Mets took the series and the finale with Franco and KeBryan Hayes battering Corey Kluber, Tim Schroeder, and Osiris Ramirez. Franco went 3-3 with two doubles, a homer, and three driven in, while Hayes homered twice and drove in five.
In LA a week later, the Mets used late inning magic, with three in the ninth of Penguin Robles to take the opener 6-3. Arturo Ramirez hit one of his three home runs on the season, a three-run shot off Robles, to give the Mets the win. The Dodgers managed only six hits despite only striking out five times. The next day, three errors—two by Willie Calhoun—plated three unearned runs in a 4-1 Mets win. Andre Stinson allowed one run over 8 innings, striking out only three.
The Dodgers tied a 2-1 game in the bottom of the ninth to send Game to extras, but the Mets held the Dodgers scoreless from the 10th through the 15th. Oscar Hernandez homered in the 15th to give the Mets the win. Eduardo Rodriguez was hurt after just two batters in the finale, but the Dodgers avoided the sweep with a heroic bullpen day. Despite 15 innings the day prior, the Dodgers pen went 8.2 scoreless allowing two hits in a 5-1 win. The Mets allowed just a .258 BABIP in the series.
Deciding Questions
Can the Mets generate offense against Eduardo Rodriguez and whoever the Dodgers’ fourth starter is?
Who will win the BABIP battle between the Dodgers’ left-handed hitters and the Mets’ defense?
Will the Dodgers infield defense allow the Mets offense life?
Prediction: It’s possible to see a world where the Dodgers have trouble scoring against the Mets, but New York’s run prevention feels entirely unsustainably. Despite the Mets regular season success, the Dodgers feel like they have a bit more offense than they had in August and should win a low-scoring series: Dodgers 4-1.
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants
In what should be an awesome pitching series, two of the most loaded staffs in baseball face each other when the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants face off. The Brewers won 112 games, easily the most in baseball, and are looking to put a disappointing loss in last year’s NLDS behind them. The perennially strong Giants are hoping this is the year they get enough offense to push forward and win the pennant. One thing to note, the Giants haven’t lost a playoff series to a non-Dodgers opponent since 2017.
Brewers Offense versus Giants Pitching
The Giants were second in the league in preventing runs, allowing just 21 more than Milwaukee. Despite trades and injuries, they always have pitchers stepping up and reinforcements ready to take the reigns.
The Giants will likely start Mehki Lias in Games 3 and 6, allowing them to run him at home where he’s 16-1 at home in regular season games the past two years with an ERA under 2. He had a 1.86 postseason ERA last year and is coming off 6.1 shutout innings in the Wild Card Game. He’s nearly impossible to beat in AT&T Park and may give San Francisco two banked wins.
Shane Baz, an 8-WAR pitcher just two seasons ago, will also likely get two starts. Baz has huge stuff and struck out the fourth most hitters in the NL this year. He’s really tough to hit, allowing batters to bat just .215 this year. Like most Giants, he has significant home/road pitching splits though. He had a 4.22 ERA away from the bay and an 8-1, 2.73 record at home. Someone has to start Game 1 though, so Baz will likely get the ball.
Rookie Chris Davis will probably start Game 2 and is an excellent option for the Giants. He doesn’t have major home/road splits, and really limits left-handed power. Against a Brewers team that really hits righties, Davis and his 57% ground ball rate may be able to neutralize their damage.
Tim Johnson will probably start Game 4. He had the lowest HR/9 rate in the league, thanks to issuing just three home runs in 17 starts at AT&T Park. Left-handers hit him well, especially away from AT&T, so he may be someone who starts Game 4 and is never seen again.
The Giants bullpen is excellent with four options with ERAs 1.64 or under, plus Octavio Lopez and Rafael A. Gomez with ERAs in the mid 2’s. Aaron Perry is the underachiever with an ERA of exactly 3.
San Francisco has three lefties they can break out against the Brewers, always a nice luxury, and while they have home/road splits, the difference is between untouchable and merely excellent. In fact, Aaron Perry and Ricardo Silva have better ERAs on the road than at home.
The Giants will take on a Brewers club that was second in the league in runs. The Brewers did so by dominating the strike zone, drawing the most walks and striking out the fewest times. They were seventh in average, fifth in homers, and sixth in steals, really relying on their strike zone dominance to win.
Somehow, Milwaukee was second worst in BABIP, a huge problem against a Giants defense that’s the best in the NL. Shane Baz has huge strikeout and respectable walk numbers—he may have trouble with Milwaukee, but the Brewers’ style plays right into San Francisco’s hands. None of their pitchers aside from Torrez walk too many hitters, and while they all have above-average strikeout rates, nobody depends on the strikeout to succeed.
Milwaukee had a .796 OPS against righties, second in the NL, but only a .731 OPS against lefties. San Francisco’s ability to start Chris Davis and also mix and match in the pen should help the Giants tamper down the Brewers’ offense.
However, despite those factors working against them, Milwaukee still swept the Giants, scoring at least four runs in each of their seven games. They did so by hitting two home runs in each game they played in Milwaukee, and taking advantage of four errors, three wild pitches, two passed balls, and two hit batsmen in San Francisco.
Milwaukee’s offense is potent right at the top with three strong lefties, and a right-hander who crushes right-handed hitting. Rodolfo Rivera and Will Dulihanty each have on-base percentages in the .380s and more than 25 home runs. Greg Jacks crushes extra base hits, with a league leading 12 triples, plus 38 doubles, and 26 home runs. Matt Aceto, Luis Rivera, and Danny Tamarro had OPS’ over .800 against righties. Lefty Mike Perches, who has missed almost the whole year after clubbing 48 homers as a rookie, is set to return late in the series.
The Giants have some excellent right-handed pitching, but the Brewers are as well set as anybody to handle it.
Some of those hitters have major platoon splits, but the Brewers can compensate with righties that crush lefties. Mike Becker, Steve Mulvey, Tim Elmore and Yoelkis Cespedes all hit for an OPS of .849 or better against lefties.
The problem Milwaukee had last postseason was that the Brewers bottom of the order was impotent, and that their manager bot wouldn’t sub in the hitters with the correct platoon splits while the team floundered. Nate Sprague and Elih Marrero were fine this season, but they combined to go 6-36 last postseason with one walk. Zack Prajner hit for an empty .273. Noah Campbell had a .536 OPS. Whether the catchers and middle infielders like Steve Mulvey can produce will be big. Also, whether the Brewers actually use their bench will be key. Milwaukee also was tied for sixth in the league in pinch-hitting plate appearances. Milwaukee will need to use its bench to give itself the best chance to win.
Milwaukee can also use its legs to generate offense. The Brewers stole the sixth most bases, with Greg Jacks stealing 26 of 29 bases. San Francisco limits attempts, but the runners that did try to steal were extremely successful. The Brewers may not be able to run wild, but Jacks may be able to get into scoring position on the bases.
Giants Offense Versus Brewers Pitching
Milwaukee had the best staff in baseball. They’re throwing out three bonafide aces, the second-ranked bullpen, and a unit that dominated San Francisco this season. The Giants scored 12 runs in seven games against Milwaukee this year.
Milwaukee’s rotation features three right-handers, but they’re three of the best righties in baseball. Hawkeye, Mike Arnold, will win the Cy Young this year. His 0.90 WHIP is the fifth best in an NL season in history, and his 2.47 ERA led the league. He produced 9.1 WAR, third most All-Time in the NL. He allowed more than three runs in a home start once this year, and he put up 14 quality starts in 16 home starts. He held lefties to a .156 average thanks to a dominant changeup and should be able to overwhelm the Giants.
The Heater From St. Peters, Tim Kierstead, had a 16-8 record, a 2.91 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He’s worked 12.1 shutout innings against the Giants this year, dominating their offense with his mid-90s fastball, knee-buckling curveball, and disappearing changeup.
Scruffy Andexler is the third starter with a strikeout rate over 28%, a walk rate under 7%, and would be the third Brewer in the top three of ERA if he qualified. He’ll give up more homers than his teammtes, but his command, dominant stuff, and extra-base hit limiting ground ball rate, make him another fantastic option.
Milwaukee’s fourth starter would be fourth best in the league if he qualified. Brock Straub doesn’t have the sheer stuff of his teammates, but as a left-hander, he’ll have a natural advantage against a lefty-heavy Giants lineup. Straub limits homers and has pristine command against lefties, issuing two free passes to lefties in 166 Plate Appearances.
Milwaukee likely won’t need its long men, but Eddie Sherk and Mitch Cavanagh have had strong seasons as starters, Mike Gaylord is a top prospect, and David Meeks is left-handed. Toby Dunlap held lefties to a .215 average this year, Aroldis Chapman had a 1.23 ERA as a Brewer, and Blayne Enlow whiffed more than 100 hitters as a reliever for the third straight year. Edwin Diaz is a future Hall of Famer who had a career high in saves this year with 47 in 49 chances.
Only special hitters can do damage against Milwaukee’s armada, and San Francisco has too many ordinary bats. Calvin Mitchell, Kelyn Klattenburger, Arturo Rivera, and Orlando Arcia meet that criteria. However, Klattenburger went 4-27 with no extra base hits, Calvin Mitchell went 4-20 with no walks, and Arturo Rivera went .259 with a single RBI, a single walk, and 13 strikeouts. Only Arcia, who batted .438, performed well. It’s hard to see the Giants scoring successfully this series.
Season Series
The Brewers swept the season series, dominating the Giants 7-0. The Giants scored 0, 1, 3, 1, 5, 0, and 2 runs in their seven games. Milwaukee’s offense was remarkably consistent, scoring four runs in five of the seven games.
In August, in Milwaukee, Tim Kierstead allowed two hits and struck out nine in 6 shutout innings as Milwaukee shut the Giants out 4-0. The Bullpen went 2.2 hitless in the middle game, a 4-1 Giants win. Aramis Ademan struck out with two on and two outs in the eighth inning of a 4-3 game in the finale as the Brewers completed the sweep. Milwaukee hit two home runs a game, each game of the series.
In AT&T Park, Milwaukee set the tone in the opener with six doubles and a triple as the Brewers battered Miguel Diaz in a 9-1 win. Noah Campbell had a three-run home run in the second game as the Brewers held on to a 6-5 win. Tim Kierstead went 6.1 innings in game three, starting his second shutout against the Giants, and 5 scoreless frames from the bullpen in the finale completed the humiliation. Milwaukee’s bullpen went 23.2 innings allowing just three runs.
Deciding Questions
Can Klattenburger, Rivera, and Mitchell handle Milwaukee’s excellent starting rotation?
Will Shane Baz pitch like an ace on the road?
Will Milwaukee’s manager bot pinch hit correctly?
Prediction: Milwaukee won’t dominate San Francisco like they did in the regular season, but they have the better staff and the more flexible offense. It feels like the Giants-Dodgers NLDS from 2024 where neither team scored more than four runs in a game until Game 7 that year. Runs will be at a premium, and the Brewers are better at making sure games are low scoring and getting the platoon advantage late. Brewers 4-2.
The New York Mets were a drifting franchise is a sea of juggernauts in the NL East. They overachieved all season, entering the final week with a playoff berth possible despite a negative run differential. They surged through that final week, sweeping the Atlanta Braves in three gut check wins to take the NL East for the first time since 2018. Their season is already a huge success, but there’s hope for better. The Mets have a .500 record this season against the San Francisco Giants and a winning record against every other playoff team—including their NLDS opponent, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Los Angeles staved off a late collapse to come back in impressive fashion in the NL West play in game to clinch the division. The Dodgers will get a measure of breathing room in the NLDS, not needing to win a do-or-die Wild Card Game to continue their journey. The Dodgers have made it to the World Series in back-to-back seasons, winning last year’s title. They’ll look to earn their third consecutive pennant and win a second consecutive title.
Dodgers Offense versus Mets Pitching
The Mets were fourth in run prevention this year and the Dodgers were tied for second in runs, making this a very fun matchup. The Dodgers did fade in September, producing just the ninth most runs in the NL in the month, but did so with Jeren Kendall injured. His injury forced Alex Verdugo and Seiya Suzuki into full time roles. Verdugo had a respectable month, but hit just one homer during September. Suzuki had a .561 OPS after a strong summer, and finds himself on the bench with Kendall back in the lineup.
While Kendall is a somewhat erratic hitter with big boom or bust potential, he brings significant upside to the lineup and forces the Dodgers to drop a weak player from the lineup. Los Angeles doesn’t have a great ton of depth so his return is a welcome one, even without a defensive boost Kendall provides.
The top of the Dodgers offense can hang with anyone in the NL. Five hitters hit at least .284, and four hit at least 20 home runs. Luis Robert hasn’t been quite as good as what Nomar Mazara is and has been, but Robert hit .284 with 30 homers, stayed healthy all year, and hit lefties as well as righties. Alex Bregman’s repeated his excellent seasons of the recent past, with any declines mostly attuned to league effects. Luis Urias has rebounded from a down year to put up a .310 average that’s fourth in the league.
They’ve all been excellent hitting in front of a pair of sluggers that crush right-handed pitching in Willie Calhoun, who was fourth in the league in RBIs, and Jorge Ramos, who had an .860 OPS as a Rookie.
It’s as strong a top five as any, especially against right-handed pitching.
The bottom of the lineup isn’t great, but is serviceable. Alex Verdugo bangs enough doubles to be a fine offensive player if not asked to do too much. Jeren Kendall can occasionally run into a home run, and his weak contact can result in an infield hit with his speed. Fidel Mejia somehow hit .323 this year and may start, or Amin Valdez, having a disappointing season, may see his 28 steals return to the lineup. Valdez has also had a strong offensive year as recently as last year, when he hit .298 with 20 homers. Keibert Ruiz hit 13 home runs last year.
Again, it’s a fine bottom of the order—particularly against righties.
Against lefties, Calhoun’s OPS drops .150 points, Ramos’ drops nearly .130 Verdugo hits .235 with just two home runs (though with strong career marks against lefties), and Wuilmer Becerra enters the lineup keeping him from being a pinch-hitting silver bullet. Good lefties are likely to key to holding down the Dodgers, though their pitching and defense give them some margin for error.
Suzuki isn’t the worst slugger to have on the bench, Becerra can pinch hit and crush lefties, and if Valdez doesn’t start, he’s a pinch-running weapon off the bench. Against lefty starters, Kendall comes in and subs in Center if the Dodgers are leading or tries to get a hold of one against a righty reliever. It’s not the worst bench if the Dodgers need to mix and match late.
While the Dodgers may be vulnerable to lefties, the Mets only have two lefties—strong starter Jefferson Escorcha, and long man and former Dodger Logan Allen. Each pitcher has relied heavily on a strong Mets defense to help them out as neither has a high strikeout rate. The Mets defense is first in defensive efficiency and third in zone rating.
Ynmanol Martinez is a terrible offensive player, but an exceptional defensive Second Baseman. Luis Torribio is an exceptional defensive Shortstop. KeBryan Hayes is a two-time Gold Glove winner at Third Base. Luis Morales and Mookie Betts will be in the Gold Glove conversation in the corner outfield spots. Arturo Ramirez is a strong defensive outfielder off the bench, and Sean Mendoza can really flash the leather as a backup middle infielder. This is a defense that gets after it and provided the infrastructure for the Mets to overachieve. They may not hit well, but they’ve helped a solid but unspectacular collection of arms turn in an awesome season, and defense tends to travel well to the playoffs.
The Mets were excellent at keeping the ball in the park, and they also struck out hitters at a good clip despite allowing a fair amount of walks. Since those walks don’t turn into home runs though, they win with suppressing BABIP, holding opponents to a .284 BABIP, second worst in the league. That’s bad news for a Dodgers team that’s collectively 10th in BABIP. The Dodgers mostly simply didn’t have anyone overperform in BABIP—all their regulars, assuming Amin Valdez starts, are within a relatively narrow band of between .286 and .319 in BABIP. It’s a consistent team in terms of BABIP.
Shohei Otani will likely start Game 1 for the Mets. Like all their starters, he limits homers, but he also led the league in innings and walks. He’s much better against righties than lefties, so lefties towards the bottom of the Dodgers lineup may be key against him. If he’s walking Calhoun or Ramos and Kendall or Verdugo are up with men on, they’re the ones who will need to produce.
Ryan Beyer is an up-and-coming phenom. He struck out 223 in only 158 innings, really limits opponents’ average, and can stymie any offense. He’s also produced just seven Quality Starts as he failed to go 5 innings in 14 of 32 starts, and each of his last four.
Jacob Stevens limited opponents to a .279 BABIP to offset striking out only 128 batters in 175.1 innings. Andre Stinson was a more extreme version of Stevens, holding opponents to a league low BABIP of .241
While only striking out 99 hitters in 185.2 innings. Only Dillon Overton had a lower strikeout rate. It’s hard to imagine Stinson holding up with such a low strikeout rate, but he did work an 8 inning, 1-run outing against the Dodgers earlier this season.
The short relievers for the Mets are strong. Andres Perez set a PBA record for saves with 50 in 54 chances. The Mets played a ton of close games, giving Perez ample chances to lock down late innings. Perez is a heavy ground ball pitcher, who allowed just five doubles all year. He did give up eight long balls, and also issued a .337 BABIP, so limiting the doubles was huge.
The Mets also have last year’s Saves leader setting up for them in Dan Altavilla. Another groundballer, Altavilla will hang pitches that turn into homers, but he also allowed just six doubles and had hitters hit just .196 off him. Finally, Jorge Guzman completely turned his career around. After putting up a 6.78 ERA last year with the Yankees, he went across town and put up a 2.78 ERA this year. He allowed a fair amount of doubles, but just two long balls. He had the fourth highest groundball rate in the league among pitchers with 50+ innings, forcing hitters to beat the Mets defense multiple times to score.
The Mets right-handed middle relievers are less reliable than their short relievers, with each of them with an ERA in the 4s. Dillon Tate, Raheem Owusu, and Tony Gonzalez all allowed more than a home run per nine innings and are risky against the power-hitting lefties in the Dodgers lineup.
Mets Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
This matchup is a huge mismatch. The Mets won with pitching and defense, putting up the third worst offense in the NL. The Dodgers had the fifth best run prevention unit in the league, with their playoff unit likely to be much better than their regular season unit.
Former Met Matt Cleveland would have the third best ERA in the league would he have enough innings to qualify, with a 3.11 ERA, an 11-3 record, and an outstanding 30% strikeout rate. He’s come into his own with the Dodgers.
J.B. Bukauskas will likely get one start in Game 4. He’s homer prone, and the one aspect the Mets are respectable in is home run power. Bukauskas has respectable stuff with a strikeout rate over 20, but his walk rate is ticking up, he yields a high average, and he’s given up eight home runs in 23 career playoff innings. Ben Vincent may bank on the fact that the Mets don’t have a potent enough offense to take advantage of Bukauskas, and that Corey Kluber looked dreadful in the NL West Play-In Game.
The Dodgers’ rotation is rounded out by a pair of lefties. Eduardo Rodriguez is still adjusting to pitching with a torn rotator cuff. The strikeout rate has plummeted, and his home run rate is the highest it’s been since 2020. However, Rodriguez is still throwing strikes and keeping a pristine walk rate. He’s been fantastic against lefties, though his postseason history is sketchy.
He'll be balanced by Joey Wentz, 2025 Postseason Hero, with a 3-1, 3.47 lifetime postseason record. Wentz’ strikeout rate dipped this year, and he didn’t produce the same dampened BABIP he put up last year, leading to a 4.35 ERA. He’s a fly ball pitcher who’s getting Jeren Kendall back, which should be a boost, and many of his other metrics are similar to what they were last year. He should be a reliable option.
The Dodgers expected bullpen goes eight deep with seven pitchers bringing ERAs in the 2s. The one holdout, Giovanny Gallegos, has a respectable 3.51 ERA and strikes out more than a batter an inning, yields less than a homer an inning, has no platoon split this year, and has totally fine walks metrics. Maybe against the best of the best lineups he’d be a concern. Against New York, he and the rest of the Dodgers bullpen look menacing.
The Mets were in the bottom three of most of the major statistical categories, and even some of the lesser ones like doubles. They hit just .238 as a team with only KeBryan Hayes and Mookie Betts with averages above .247. Jose Peraza did hit .311, but in only 241 Plate Appearances.
The Mets will try to keep it close and hope for enough solo home runs to win. The Mets will go seven deep with double-digit home run hitters, which is a more of an accomplishment in this run environment than normal. Three hitters have more than 20, including Luis Morales with 29, Anderson Franco with 28, and Hayes with 22. Otani also has 14 in just 107 games. The Mets don’t have significant platoon splits, playing the same way at home and on the road, against lefties or righties.
They even have a disadvantage when Otani is pitching—it takes his bat out of the lineup and forces in one of the Mets defense-only backups. For example, they can go with Sean Mendoza and his .510 OPS in 115 games. Ricardo Cespedes becomes an option, with his .556 OPS and -1.1 WAR. Maybe Arturo Ramirez’ .618 mark is an enticing option for them?
No matter what, it’s going to be tough for the Mets to score unless the Dodgers help them out defensively. Los Angeles has a huge gulf in outfield defense versus infield defense. Los Angeles will haul in anything hit to the outfield if Kendall, Verdugo, and Ramos are the trio running things down. Anything hit to Urias and Valdez can sneak through and become a hit though. The duo is sure-handed at least and doesn’t commit many errors—if the Mets hit their grounders weakly, they’ll be able to make plays.
The Mets have decent team speed and may look to get the running game going to get offense, where the Dodgers are an average unit both in preventing attempts and throwing guys out.
Season Series
The Mets took two series from the Dodgers in August to take the season series 5-2. Anderson Franco doubled, homered, and drove in three as the Mets hit Joey Wentz hard in taking the opener 7-4. The Dodgers managed only four hits in the game, and only one in 5 frames by Jefferson Escorcha. The Dodgers rebounded the next day with 17 hits in a balanced attack where they won 10-3. Jacob Stevens, Dillon Tate, and Tony Gonzalez were hit hard.
The Mets took the series and the finale with Franco and KeBryan Hayes battering Corey Kluber, Tim Schroeder, and Osiris Ramirez. Franco went 3-3 with two doubles, a homer, and three driven in, while Hayes homered twice and drove in five.
In LA a week later, the Mets used late inning magic, with three in the ninth of Penguin Robles to take the opener 6-3. Arturo Ramirez hit one of his three home runs on the season, a three-run shot off Robles, to give the Mets the win. The Dodgers managed only six hits despite only striking out five times. The next day, three errors—two by Willie Calhoun—plated three unearned runs in a 4-1 Mets win. Andre Stinson allowed one run over 8 innings, striking out only three.
The Dodgers tied a 2-1 game in the bottom of the ninth to send Game to extras, but the Mets held the Dodgers scoreless from the 10th through the 15th. Oscar Hernandez homered in the 15th to give the Mets the win. Eduardo Rodriguez was hurt after just two batters in the finale, but the Dodgers avoided the sweep with a heroic bullpen day. Despite 15 innings the day prior, the Dodgers pen went 8.2 scoreless allowing two hits in a 5-1 win. The Mets allowed just a .258 BABIP in the series.
Deciding Questions
Can the Mets generate offense against Eduardo Rodriguez and whoever the Dodgers’ fourth starter is?
Who will win the BABIP battle between the Dodgers’ left-handed hitters and the Mets’ defense?
Will the Dodgers infield defense allow the Mets offense life?
Prediction: It’s possible to see a world where the Dodgers have trouble scoring against the Mets, but New York’s run prevention feels entirely unsustainably. Despite the Mets regular season success, the Dodgers feel like they have a bit more offense than they had in August and should win a low-scoring series: Dodgers 4-1.
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants
In what should be an awesome pitching series, two of the most loaded staffs in baseball face each other when the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants face off. The Brewers won 112 games, easily the most in baseball, and are looking to put a disappointing loss in last year’s NLDS behind them. The perennially strong Giants are hoping this is the year they get enough offense to push forward and win the pennant. One thing to note, the Giants haven’t lost a playoff series to a non-Dodgers opponent since 2017.
Brewers Offense versus Giants Pitching
The Giants were second in the league in preventing runs, allowing just 21 more than Milwaukee. Despite trades and injuries, they always have pitchers stepping up and reinforcements ready to take the reigns.
The Giants will likely start Mehki Lias in Games 3 and 6, allowing them to run him at home where he’s 16-1 at home in regular season games the past two years with an ERA under 2. He had a 1.86 postseason ERA last year and is coming off 6.1 shutout innings in the Wild Card Game. He’s nearly impossible to beat in AT&T Park and may give San Francisco two banked wins.
Shane Baz, an 8-WAR pitcher just two seasons ago, will also likely get two starts. Baz has huge stuff and struck out the fourth most hitters in the NL this year. He’s really tough to hit, allowing batters to bat just .215 this year. Like most Giants, he has significant home/road pitching splits though. He had a 4.22 ERA away from the bay and an 8-1, 2.73 record at home. Someone has to start Game 1 though, so Baz will likely get the ball.
Rookie Chris Davis will probably start Game 2 and is an excellent option for the Giants. He doesn’t have major home/road splits, and really limits left-handed power. Against a Brewers team that really hits righties, Davis and his 57% ground ball rate may be able to neutralize their damage.
Tim Johnson will probably start Game 4. He had the lowest HR/9 rate in the league, thanks to issuing just three home runs in 17 starts at AT&T Park. Left-handers hit him well, especially away from AT&T, so he may be someone who starts Game 4 and is never seen again.
The Giants bullpen is excellent with four options with ERAs 1.64 or under, plus Octavio Lopez and Rafael A. Gomez with ERAs in the mid 2’s. Aaron Perry is the underachiever with an ERA of exactly 3.
San Francisco has three lefties they can break out against the Brewers, always a nice luxury, and while they have home/road splits, the difference is between untouchable and merely excellent. In fact, Aaron Perry and Ricardo Silva have better ERAs on the road than at home.
The Giants will take on a Brewers club that was second in the league in runs. The Brewers did so by dominating the strike zone, drawing the most walks and striking out the fewest times. They were seventh in average, fifth in homers, and sixth in steals, really relying on their strike zone dominance to win.
Somehow, Milwaukee was second worst in BABIP, a huge problem against a Giants defense that’s the best in the NL. Shane Baz has huge strikeout and respectable walk numbers—he may have trouble with Milwaukee, but the Brewers’ style plays right into San Francisco’s hands. None of their pitchers aside from Torrez walk too many hitters, and while they all have above-average strikeout rates, nobody depends on the strikeout to succeed.
Milwaukee had a .796 OPS against righties, second in the NL, but only a .731 OPS against lefties. San Francisco’s ability to start Chris Davis and also mix and match in the pen should help the Giants tamper down the Brewers’ offense.
However, despite those factors working against them, Milwaukee still swept the Giants, scoring at least four runs in each of their seven games. They did so by hitting two home runs in each game they played in Milwaukee, and taking advantage of four errors, three wild pitches, two passed balls, and two hit batsmen in San Francisco.
Milwaukee’s offense is potent right at the top with three strong lefties, and a right-hander who crushes right-handed hitting. Rodolfo Rivera and Will Dulihanty each have on-base percentages in the .380s and more than 25 home runs. Greg Jacks crushes extra base hits, with a league leading 12 triples, plus 38 doubles, and 26 home runs. Matt Aceto, Luis Rivera, and Danny Tamarro had OPS’ over .800 against righties. Lefty Mike Perches, who has missed almost the whole year after clubbing 48 homers as a rookie, is set to return late in the series.
The Giants have some excellent right-handed pitching, but the Brewers are as well set as anybody to handle it.
Some of those hitters have major platoon splits, but the Brewers can compensate with righties that crush lefties. Mike Becker, Steve Mulvey, Tim Elmore and Yoelkis Cespedes all hit for an OPS of .849 or better against lefties.
The problem Milwaukee had last postseason was that the Brewers bottom of the order was impotent, and that their manager bot wouldn’t sub in the hitters with the correct platoon splits while the team floundered. Nate Sprague and Elih Marrero were fine this season, but they combined to go 6-36 last postseason with one walk. Zack Prajner hit for an empty .273. Noah Campbell had a .536 OPS. Whether the catchers and middle infielders like Steve Mulvey can produce will be big. Also, whether the Brewers actually use their bench will be key. Milwaukee also was tied for sixth in the league in pinch-hitting plate appearances. Milwaukee will need to use its bench to give itself the best chance to win.
Milwaukee can also use its legs to generate offense. The Brewers stole the sixth most bases, with Greg Jacks stealing 26 of 29 bases. San Francisco limits attempts, but the runners that did try to steal were extremely successful. The Brewers may not be able to run wild, but Jacks may be able to get into scoring position on the bases.
Giants Offense Versus Brewers Pitching
Milwaukee had the best staff in baseball. They’re throwing out three bonafide aces, the second-ranked bullpen, and a unit that dominated San Francisco this season. The Giants scored 12 runs in seven games against Milwaukee this year.
Milwaukee’s rotation features three right-handers, but they’re three of the best righties in baseball. Hawkeye, Mike Arnold, will win the Cy Young this year. His 0.90 WHIP is the fifth best in an NL season in history, and his 2.47 ERA led the league. He produced 9.1 WAR, third most All-Time in the NL. He allowed more than three runs in a home start once this year, and he put up 14 quality starts in 16 home starts. He held lefties to a .156 average thanks to a dominant changeup and should be able to overwhelm the Giants.
The Heater From St. Peters, Tim Kierstead, had a 16-8 record, a 2.91 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He’s worked 12.1 shutout innings against the Giants this year, dominating their offense with his mid-90s fastball, knee-buckling curveball, and disappearing changeup.
Scruffy Andexler is the third starter with a strikeout rate over 28%, a walk rate under 7%, and would be the third Brewer in the top three of ERA if he qualified. He’ll give up more homers than his teammtes, but his command, dominant stuff, and extra-base hit limiting ground ball rate, make him another fantastic option.
Milwaukee’s fourth starter would be fourth best in the league if he qualified. Brock Straub doesn’t have the sheer stuff of his teammates, but as a left-hander, he’ll have a natural advantage against a lefty-heavy Giants lineup. Straub limits homers and has pristine command against lefties, issuing two free passes to lefties in 166 Plate Appearances.
Milwaukee likely won’t need its long men, but Eddie Sherk and Mitch Cavanagh have had strong seasons as starters, Mike Gaylord is a top prospect, and David Meeks is left-handed. Toby Dunlap held lefties to a .215 average this year, Aroldis Chapman had a 1.23 ERA as a Brewer, and Blayne Enlow whiffed more than 100 hitters as a reliever for the third straight year. Edwin Diaz is a future Hall of Famer who had a career high in saves this year with 47 in 49 chances.
Only special hitters can do damage against Milwaukee’s armada, and San Francisco has too many ordinary bats. Calvin Mitchell, Kelyn Klattenburger, Arturo Rivera, and Orlando Arcia meet that criteria. However, Klattenburger went 4-27 with no extra base hits, Calvin Mitchell went 4-20 with no walks, and Arturo Rivera went .259 with a single RBI, a single walk, and 13 strikeouts. Only Arcia, who batted .438, performed well. It’s hard to see the Giants scoring successfully this series.
Season Series
The Brewers swept the season series, dominating the Giants 7-0. The Giants scored 0, 1, 3, 1, 5, 0, and 2 runs in their seven games. Milwaukee’s offense was remarkably consistent, scoring four runs in five of the seven games.
In August, in Milwaukee, Tim Kierstead allowed two hits and struck out nine in 6 shutout innings as Milwaukee shut the Giants out 4-0. The Bullpen went 2.2 hitless in the middle game, a 4-1 Giants win. Aramis Ademan struck out with two on and two outs in the eighth inning of a 4-3 game in the finale as the Brewers completed the sweep. Milwaukee hit two home runs a game, each game of the series.
In AT&T Park, Milwaukee set the tone in the opener with six doubles and a triple as the Brewers battered Miguel Diaz in a 9-1 win. Noah Campbell had a three-run home run in the second game as the Brewers held on to a 6-5 win. Tim Kierstead went 6.1 innings in game three, starting his second shutout against the Giants, and 5 scoreless frames from the bullpen in the finale completed the humiliation. Milwaukee’s bullpen went 23.2 innings allowing just three runs.
Deciding Questions
Can Klattenburger, Rivera, and Mitchell handle Milwaukee’s excellent starting rotation?
Will Shane Baz pitch like an ace on the road?
Will Milwaukee’s manager bot pinch hit correctly?
Prediction: Milwaukee won’t dominate San Francisco like they did in the regular season, but they have the better staff and the more flexible offense. It feels like the Giants-Dodgers NLDS from 2024 where neither team scored more than four runs in a game until Game 7 that year. Runs will be at a premium, and the Brewers are better at making sure games are low scoring and getting the platoon advantage late. Brewers 4-2.