Post by Commissioner Erick on Sept 21, 2021 19:08:44 GMT -5
Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros
The Texas Rangers were the cream of the AL crop this year, finishing first in runs scored, second in runs allowed, and looking for a repeat trip to the World Series. They’ll take on a Houston team that has played great baseball under Neil Ehm, and will look to go 3-0 all-time in ALDS games.
Rangers Offense versus Astros Pitching
Texas made the World Series last year and then made big moves acquiring Nomar Mazara, Nick Pratto, and Freddie Freeman. Freeman had a disappointing year, but two-of-three is pretty good.
Four Rangers hit over .300, led by AL batting champ Francisco Mejia. Texas as a team hit .288, leading the league. The Rangers also hit the third most homers with all nine regulars hitting double digits. They have seven Platinum Stick winners on their team, and it’s possible Raimer Salinas makes it eight this year. Granted Freddie Freeman had a down year and Anthony Rizzo played nine games, but it’s a deep group of explosively talented hitters.
Texas has three switch hitters to help gain platoon advantages, hit lefties and righties equally impressively, and if an opponent keeps the ball in the park or a standout pitcher limits opportunities, Texas is the third best baserunning team as well. The team gets on base, and most of the lineup can get on base and sock pitches over the fence. They were third in the league in strikeouts, third in the league in walks, and have very few weaknesses.
Houston will give themselves a chance by having their worst pitcher going in the Wild Card Game and not being needed this series. 20-game winner Jorge Cotto will start Game 1 and has the goods to put on a dominant performance. The deGrominator was hit hard by Texas this year though, and at 24-years-old, may still need more maturity to excel at this level.
Rookie Jeff Morrison is also 24, and also had an excellent year, winning 13 games, posting a 3.98 ERA, and keeping the ball in the park. He throws hard, but he only struck out 120 as his slider isn’t as advanced as his changeup. He’s the rare pitcher who gets hit harder by righties, neutralizing Texas’ flexibility.
Jorge Ontiveros was once the #6 prospect in baseball, but has a career 4.92 ERA and a losing record. His nickname is well-earned as his predicted superstar expectation was a phantom prediction. His strikeout numbers were good, but he allowed a bunch of homers and walks and was crushed by righties. Unsurprisingly for any pitcher crushed by righties, he was crushed by the Rangers and went winless with a 6.07 ERA in three starts against Texas.
Danny Galabeas was a fine mid-rotation arm who lacks big stuff and allowed a bunch of home runs. His control is fine, and he keeps the ball on the ground. Against some opponents that would be optimistic, but the Rangers crush hangers turning them into homers, and if Galabeas is on, can win the station-to-station batting average game he tries to win with.
The bullpen for Houston was a strength, but they’ll be without stud reliever Antonio Santillan and his 0.80 ERA after learning after Houston’s win in the Wild Card Game that he had a torn flexor tendon in his elbow that will require surgery. Lefties John Gavin, and Cionel Perez had an ERA under 3, and Mitchell Stone is a lefty with a 3.33 ERA. However, the righties in the Houston pen aren’t quite as strong. Gavin may become the closer, but he’s been homer prone in his career.
Astros Offense vs Ranger Pitching
The Astos finished 6th in wOBA, a respectable number, but they will have their work cut out for them against the Rangers. The Rangers finished 2nd in the AL in ERA, and 1st in Starter ERA despite missing ace Noah Syndergaard for the entire season.
A huge key to the Rangers pitching success was the emergence of Esteban Valadez, a 9th round pick from a 2021 draft class that has produced some of the best pitchers in baseball. Esteban is still working on his changeup and only features two plus pitches, but that didn't stop him from winning the AL ERA title. He has what many have called the best slider in baseball which allowed him to dominate right-handed bats. However Valadez struggled against Houston this year, allowing 14 hits and 9 ER in 10 IP against the Astros bats. As we saw from Nunez's performance for the Mariners AL WC though, this might not mean anything.
The rest of the Rangers playoff rotation is rounded out by 3 veterans in Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Robert Stephenson who either won't give up homeruns or won't walk anyone, which was the key to the Rangers pitching success. The team finished only 12th in team strikeouts, but they won't beat themselves with mistake pitches.
This isn't the first rodeo for Marcus Stroman or Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has pitched in the postseason every season since 2017, either for the Cubs or Rangers, and Stroman has been there several times with the Rangers. Hendricks only a has career 99 ERA+ in the postseason, Stroman has been the better playoff performer, with only one bad showing for the Rangers in 2019. However, Hendricks allowed only 3 ERA against the Astros this year across 3 starts despite allowing 18 hits and a 3.4 K/9. The key for him was not allowing a home run. That's a microcosm of the Rangers success this year, and one they will need to continue to beat the Astros.
The Rangers will need to limit the long ball, which may prove tough against an Astros team that finished 4th in the AL in home runs. The Astros best power hitter and one of the leagues premier right fielders in Ichisake Ochiai actually hit better against the Rangers top ranked pitching unit than he did against the field in the AL, slashing 358/388/691 against Texas with 7 homers in 19 games. Texas was better against the Astros main right handed power threat though, limiting the ageless wonder Maikel Franco to 677 OPS.
The Astros bats will also need to face a top 5 ranked bullpen unit when they travel to Arlington. Alex Claudio might have only had a 5.8 K/9 this year but he's one of the best playoff relievers in PBA history with a sparkling 1.36 ERA. He had a 1.17 ERA against the Astros this season. If he gets the ball with the lead in the playoffs the game is likely over. Claudio is one of 3 lefties the Rangers have in their pen, helping to balance out their all right handed starters. He's joined by Zach Britton (who has been his complete opposite in the postseason having never performed very well), and good ol' pencil-head Dan O'Rourke. This trio of lefties will be important as the Astros hit right handed pitching better than they do lefties. They actually had a losing record vs left handed starters this season. Two of the Astros best hitters, The aforementioned Ochiai and Astros CF Austin Meadows will need to do their damage early in the game for the Astros to have a chance before the lefties come out of the pen for Texas. There aren't many good platoon options off the bench for the Astros either so the performance of the Texas trio of left handed relievers will play a big role in this series.
Ochiai, Meadows and Franco aren't the only Astros hitters though. Dansby Swanson is coming off a mammoth performance in the WC game. He's struggled in the playoffs in the past as a White Sock, but he's hoping to keep himself going and write a new legacy as an Astro. Jonathan Lawhorn was born in the laser tag arena in Bailey's Crossroads, Virginia and is now lasering balls out of the park for Astros in Houston,Texas. He is especially effective against right handed pitching. The Astros should feel comfortable starting him every game against the Rangers at DH and he and Ochiai represent wrenches that could be thrown in the equation of Texas's home run suppressing club.
Season Series
The Rangers won the season series, but only 10-9 as the two teams were evenly matched. It was the pitching that was the issue for Texas as all their best hitters hit reasonably well. Esteban Valdez had an 8.10 ERA in a pair of starts against the Astros, and Robert Stephenson put up a 5.93 mark in 6 starts though. The lesser relievers also struggled, though the more reliable arms for Texas pitched well.
While Houston’s right-handed relievers pitched well, which gives Houston some hope in this series, all their starters struggled. Several key hitters struggled as well, as the team needed Ichisake Ochiai to blast 7 home runs and hit for a 1.080 OPS against Texas to carry them.
Prediction: Houston has some offensive talent, but Texas is a bear of a lineup with some high end starters as well. In what should be a high scoring series, Texas is better served to slowing down Houston’s offense and has the better bullpen late. Rangers 4-2.
The Texas Rangers were the cream of the AL crop this year, finishing first in runs scored, second in runs allowed, and looking for a repeat trip to the World Series. They’ll take on a Houston team that has played great baseball under Neil Ehm, and will look to go 3-0 all-time in ALDS games.
Rangers Offense versus Astros Pitching
Texas made the World Series last year and then made big moves acquiring Nomar Mazara, Nick Pratto, and Freddie Freeman. Freeman had a disappointing year, but two-of-three is pretty good.
Four Rangers hit over .300, led by AL batting champ Francisco Mejia. Texas as a team hit .288, leading the league. The Rangers also hit the third most homers with all nine regulars hitting double digits. They have seven Platinum Stick winners on their team, and it’s possible Raimer Salinas makes it eight this year. Granted Freddie Freeman had a down year and Anthony Rizzo played nine games, but it’s a deep group of explosively talented hitters.
Texas has three switch hitters to help gain platoon advantages, hit lefties and righties equally impressively, and if an opponent keeps the ball in the park or a standout pitcher limits opportunities, Texas is the third best baserunning team as well. The team gets on base, and most of the lineup can get on base and sock pitches over the fence. They were third in the league in strikeouts, third in the league in walks, and have very few weaknesses.
Houston will give themselves a chance by having their worst pitcher going in the Wild Card Game and not being needed this series. 20-game winner Jorge Cotto will start Game 1 and has the goods to put on a dominant performance. The deGrominator was hit hard by Texas this year though, and at 24-years-old, may still need more maturity to excel at this level.
Rookie Jeff Morrison is also 24, and also had an excellent year, winning 13 games, posting a 3.98 ERA, and keeping the ball in the park. He throws hard, but he only struck out 120 as his slider isn’t as advanced as his changeup. He’s the rare pitcher who gets hit harder by righties, neutralizing Texas’ flexibility.
Jorge Ontiveros was once the #6 prospect in baseball, but has a career 4.92 ERA and a losing record. His nickname is well-earned as his predicted superstar expectation was a phantom prediction. His strikeout numbers were good, but he allowed a bunch of homers and walks and was crushed by righties. Unsurprisingly for any pitcher crushed by righties, he was crushed by the Rangers and went winless with a 6.07 ERA in three starts against Texas.
Danny Galabeas was a fine mid-rotation arm who lacks big stuff and allowed a bunch of home runs. His control is fine, and he keeps the ball on the ground. Against some opponents that would be optimistic, but the Rangers crush hangers turning them into homers, and if Galabeas is on, can win the station-to-station batting average game he tries to win with.
The bullpen for Houston was a strength, but they’ll be without stud reliever Antonio Santillan and his 0.80 ERA after learning after Houston’s win in the Wild Card Game that he had a torn flexor tendon in his elbow that will require surgery. Lefties John Gavin, and Cionel Perez had an ERA under 3, and Mitchell Stone is a lefty with a 3.33 ERA. However, the righties in the Houston pen aren’t quite as strong. Gavin may become the closer, but he’s been homer prone in his career.
Astros Offense vs Ranger Pitching
The Astos finished 6th in wOBA, a respectable number, but they will have their work cut out for them against the Rangers. The Rangers finished 2nd in the AL in ERA, and 1st in Starter ERA despite missing ace Noah Syndergaard for the entire season.
A huge key to the Rangers pitching success was the emergence of Esteban Valadez, a 9th round pick from a 2021 draft class that has produced some of the best pitchers in baseball. Esteban is still working on his changeup and only features two plus pitches, but that didn't stop him from winning the AL ERA title. He has what many have called the best slider in baseball which allowed him to dominate right-handed bats. However Valadez struggled against Houston this year, allowing 14 hits and 9 ER in 10 IP against the Astros bats. As we saw from Nunez's performance for the Mariners AL WC though, this might not mean anything.
The rest of the Rangers playoff rotation is rounded out by 3 veterans in Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Robert Stephenson who either won't give up homeruns or won't walk anyone, which was the key to the Rangers pitching success. The team finished only 12th in team strikeouts, but they won't beat themselves with mistake pitches.
This isn't the first rodeo for Marcus Stroman or Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has pitched in the postseason every season since 2017, either for the Cubs or Rangers, and Stroman has been there several times with the Rangers. Hendricks only a has career 99 ERA+ in the postseason, Stroman has been the better playoff performer, with only one bad showing for the Rangers in 2019. However, Hendricks allowed only 3 ERA against the Astros this year across 3 starts despite allowing 18 hits and a 3.4 K/9. The key for him was not allowing a home run. That's a microcosm of the Rangers success this year, and one they will need to continue to beat the Astros.
The Rangers will need to limit the long ball, which may prove tough against an Astros team that finished 4th in the AL in home runs. The Astros best power hitter and one of the leagues premier right fielders in Ichisake Ochiai actually hit better against the Rangers top ranked pitching unit than he did against the field in the AL, slashing 358/388/691 against Texas with 7 homers in 19 games. Texas was better against the Astros main right handed power threat though, limiting the ageless wonder Maikel Franco to 677 OPS.
The Astros bats will also need to face a top 5 ranked bullpen unit when they travel to Arlington. Alex Claudio might have only had a 5.8 K/9 this year but he's one of the best playoff relievers in PBA history with a sparkling 1.36 ERA. He had a 1.17 ERA against the Astros this season. If he gets the ball with the lead in the playoffs the game is likely over. Claudio is one of 3 lefties the Rangers have in their pen, helping to balance out their all right handed starters. He's joined by Zach Britton (who has been his complete opposite in the postseason having never performed very well), and good ol' pencil-head Dan O'Rourke. This trio of lefties will be important as the Astros hit right handed pitching better than they do lefties. They actually had a losing record vs left handed starters this season. Two of the Astros best hitters, The aforementioned Ochiai and Astros CF Austin Meadows will need to do their damage early in the game for the Astros to have a chance before the lefties come out of the pen for Texas. There aren't many good platoon options off the bench for the Astros either so the performance of the Texas trio of left handed relievers will play a big role in this series.
Ochiai, Meadows and Franco aren't the only Astros hitters though. Dansby Swanson is coming off a mammoth performance in the WC game. He's struggled in the playoffs in the past as a White Sock, but he's hoping to keep himself going and write a new legacy as an Astro. Jonathan Lawhorn was born in the laser tag arena in Bailey's Crossroads, Virginia and is now lasering balls out of the park for Astros in Houston,Texas. He is especially effective against right handed pitching. The Astros should feel comfortable starting him every game against the Rangers at DH and he and Ochiai represent wrenches that could be thrown in the equation of Texas's home run suppressing club.
Season Series
The Rangers won the season series, but only 10-9 as the two teams were evenly matched. It was the pitching that was the issue for Texas as all their best hitters hit reasonably well. Esteban Valdez had an 8.10 ERA in a pair of starts against the Astros, and Robert Stephenson put up a 5.93 mark in 6 starts though. The lesser relievers also struggled, though the more reliable arms for Texas pitched well.
While Houston’s right-handed relievers pitched well, which gives Houston some hope in this series, all their starters struggled. Several key hitters struggled as well, as the team needed Ichisake Ochiai to blast 7 home runs and hit for a 1.080 OPS against Texas to carry them.
Prediction: Houston has some offensive talent, but Texas is a bear of a lineup with some high end starters as well. In what should be a high scoring series, Texas is better served to slowing down Houston’s offense and has the better bullpen late. Rangers 4-2.