Post by Commissioner Erick on Sept 26, 2021 8:15:34 GMT -5
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in a rematch of last season’s NLDS, where Manager Bot inaction from Milwaukee and strong series from Jeren Kendall and Alex Verdugo allowed the Dodgers to advance. Milwaukee’s managing is a little more nimble this season, which may allow them to avoid a repeat.
Brewers Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
The biggest thing to know about the Brewers’ offense is how well it does versus right-handers compared to left-handers. Milwaukee’s .796 OPS against righties dropped to .731 against lefties. Milwaukee won’t be caught in reverse platoon splits though. They’ll be able to throw right-handed hitters against lefties. Those hitters are just a little bit worse than Riveras Rodolfo and Luis, and push Will Dulihanty and Matt Aceto down in the lineup.
Getting Milwaukee turned around to bat right-handed is part one of the solution. Part two is actually getting them out, as the right-handers Milwaukee sends out do crush left-handed pitching. Looking deeper into Milwaukee’s splits, their advantage against right-handed starters only extends to starting pitchers where they have an .801 OPS. Milwaukee has a .693 OPS against right-handed relievers. They key for the Dodgers staff may be to start with lefties, relieve with righties, and dare Milwaukee to use up its entire bench.
The Dodgers will send Eduardo Rodriguez, Joey Wentz, and likely Steven Matz returning from injury this series. Rodriguez wins by not walking anybody, though Milwaukee is third in walks. The Brewers were third-worst in BABIP, though Rodriguez won’t strike anyone out. Righties had a .778 OPS against him this year, though his career numbers in LA are pretty strong. He faced Milwaukee this year, and went 6.1 innings, allowing three runs, walking one, striking out one, getting 12 fly ball outs, allowing five hits, and largely succeeding against Milwaukee at home. The expansive park may keep Milwaukee’s hard hit balls in play and allow LA’s sensational defensive outfield a chance to run them down.
Last year’s playoff hero, Joey Wentz does not handle right-handed hitters well, and never has. They hit .285 this year with 16 homers and 20 doubles. Milwaukee struggled with him in late April, collecting just two runs and two hits in 5 innings with four hitters won’t start this series. In the second-to-last regular season game, Milwaukee beat him up for five runs on six hits in 4 innings.
Matz has been fine against righties in his career, but he’s remaking himself into more of a control/command artist as his stuff wanes with age. It’s not the absolute worst thing—Matz has always been pretty consistent at not going crazy giving up home runs and Milwaukee doesn’t have a good BABIP, but he’s hittable.
The Dodgers will send Matt Cleveland out at least once in the series and he was remarkably consistent against the Mets. 4.2 IP, two runs, five hits. 4.2 IP, two runs, five hits. 2.2 IP, 1 run, 2 hits. He succeeds against both righties and lefties, and has the great stuff to give even a lineup like Milwaukee’s trouble.
If Matz can’t go for some reason, J.B. Bukauskas will likely get a turn. He started against Milwaukee the last game of the year and allowed four runs in 7.1 innings, giving up two home runs. He only walked one and struck out six, which was promising, and may have a chance pitching in LA. His homer-prone ways may get him run early if he needs to start in Milwaukee.
The Dodgers only have two lefties in the pen, but with three left-handed starters, they can send their right-handed relievers to the hill against Milwaukee’s right-handed lineup and dare the manager bot to pinch hit, a strategy that worked wonderfully last year. Aside from Tim Schroeder interestingly enough, all the Dodgers true relievers (not Bukauskas and Corey Kluber as long men) left-handed or right-handed, held righties to an OPS under .700. Only Bobby Spong and Giovanny Gallegos allowed left-handed hitters to post an OPS above .622. It’s a bullpen that can get both righties and lefties out, and they’ll likely be pitching with the platoon advantage most of the time.
A cause for concern for the Dodgers is their defense. Milwaukee will put the ball in play, and the Dodgers defense was terrible in the NLDS, yielding a .385 BABIP and committing six errors. Milwaukee doesn’t have the slap hitters the Mets have, who will put it on the ground and not go for homers, but Milwaukee’s poor BABIP vs the Dodgers poor infield defense could be a subplot worth following.
Dodgers Offense versus Brewers Pitching
The Dodgers offense was more successful this season because their right-handers didn’t have platoon splits, and their lefties hit righties hard. That trend largely played out in the NLDS where the best performers the Dodgers had were left-handed, though Alex Bregman and Luis Robert had strong series as well.
The Dodgers faced a good Mets staff and a great Mets defense and hit reasonably well, with a .260 average and a .748 OPS. However, they hit for a .574 OPS against Mets lefties and a .780 OPS against Mets righties. New York had its moments, but the Dodgers held their own.
That makes for a scintillating matchup where the Dodgers bats will take on a team of mostly right-handed starters, but right-handed starters who happen to be the best pitchers in the league. Milwaukee, as a team, had a 0.82 ERA in the NLDS, an unreal number.
The Brewers allowed four earned runs in the entire series, three credited to likely Cy Young winner Mike Arnold. Hawkeye didn’t pitch badly, he had a splendid 2.08 ERA during the series that happened to lead the team. Branden Andexler worked 8 shutout innings, Tim Kierstead allowed a single run in 6 innings, and the bullpen worked 13.1 scoreless innings.
The key starters for Milwaukee all worked pretty well in last season’s NLDS too. Hawkeye was the one arm who was hit hard, as despite issuing one walk and striking out 14 in 11 innings, he allowed eight runs as Luis Urias and Nomar Mazara had big series against him. Urias is struggling and Mazara is in Texas, so his main nemeses last year shouldn’t be able to bit him this year. Meanwhile, Andexler worked 6 innings allowing three runs, and Kierstead worked 6 innings allowing one run. That was against a Dodgers team more lefty-skewed than this one with the presence of Mazara instead of Robert.
Milwaukee’s bullpen features five righties, one lefty in Aroldis Chapman who handles lefties very well, and a long man in David Meeks who struggles against lefties. Milwaukee may have situations where righties are facing key lefties late, like last year’s Game 6 where Alex Verdugo hit a key home run off Blayne Enlow to cap a six-run, seventh inning rally to give the Dodgers the series.
Milwaukee’s defense was third in zone rating and first in defensive efficiency, so they won’t make mistakes to help the Dodgers. Los Angeles can afford to be aggressive on the bases though as Milwaukee was also second worst in outfield assists.
Season Series
The Brewers won the season series 5-2, taking three of four in late April/early May in Milwaukee and taking two of three the final series of the year in LA to force the Dodgers to an NL West Play-In Game.
The Dodgers took the first game when Joey Wentz and four relievers combined to allow four hits and Jorge Ramos homered twice off Hawkeye in a 5-2 win. Milwaukee evened the series the next day when Tim Kierstead and Edwin Diaz combined on a five-hitter of their own to win 4-2.
A wild back-and-forth third game ended in 12 innings when Luis Rivera hit a walkoff home run off since returned Rule V pick Corey Taylor. Good pitching gave the bullpens somewhat of a rest the following day, and Will Dulihanty doubled off the Center Field wall against Giovanny Gallegos to give the Brewers the lead. In the ninth, with the leadoff man, Willie Calhoun came on to drop down a bunt ahead of Fidel Mejia. Mejia popped out, Luis Urias was plunked, but Luis Robert struck out to give the Brewers the series.
In LA in October, Mike Becker and Luis Rivera opened the final series of the year with home runs, Hawkeye allowed two runs over 5.1, and the Brewers edged out a 5-3 win. They won the series the next day when Brock Straub went 7 shutout, allowing just four hits. The Dodgers salvaged a spot in the NL West Play in by taking the finale 5-4. J.B. Bukauskas allowed four runs in in 7.1, and Gallegos and Penguin Robles locked down the late innings.
Greg Jacks was surprisingly terrible against the Dodgers, going 6-29 with one extra base hit, and Rodolfo Rivera went just 1-12, but Mike Becker was excellent hitting .389 with a pair of homers and a pair of doubles.
For the Dodgers, a number of their hitters struggled. Here are the OPS’ of several key players:
The Dodgers will need to depend on their pitching based on those offensive performances.
Deciding Questions
Will Calhoun be able to have a superstar series against Milwaukee’s best starters?
Will Milwaukee’s offense be able to mix and match late or will they get stuck in disadvantageous matchups?
Will Steven Matz be sharp coming off the IL?
Prediction: Milwaukee has shown that they can handle Los Angeles’ bats this year, and they’re more flexible with their substitution patterns than they were last season. The series is low scoring, but the Brewers snap the Dodgers run atop the National League. Brewers 4-2.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in a rematch of last season’s NLDS, where Manager Bot inaction from Milwaukee and strong series from Jeren Kendall and Alex Verdugo allowed the Dodgers to advance. Milwaukee’s managing is a little more nimble this season, which may allow them to avoid a repeat.
Brewers Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
The biggest thing to know about the Brewers’ offense is how well it does versus right-handers compared to left-handers. Milwaukee’s .796 OPS against righties dropped to .731 against lefties. Milwaukee won’t be caught in reverse platoon splits though. They’ll be able to throw right-handed hitters against lefties. Those hitters are just a little bit worse than Riveras Rodolfo and Luis, and push Will Dulihanty and Matt Aceto down in the lineup.
Getting Milwaukee turned around to bat right-handed is part one of the solution. Part two is actually getting them out, as the right-handers Milwaukee sends out do crush left-handed pitching. Looking deeper into Milwaukee’s splits, their advantage against right-handed starters only extends to starting pitchers where they have an .801 OPS. Milwaukee has a .693 OPS against right-handed relievers. They key for the Dodgers staff may be to start with lefties, relieve with righties, and dare Milwaukee to use up its entire bench.
The Dodgers will send Eduardo Rodriguez, Joey Wentz, and likely Steven Matz returning from injury this series. Rodriguez wins by not walking anybody, though Milwaukee is third in walks. The Brewers were third-worst in BABIP, though Rodriguez won’t strike anyone out. Righties had a .778 OPS against him this year, though his career numbers in LA are pretty strong. He faced Milwaukee this year, and went 6.1 innings, allowing three runs, walking one, striking out one, getting 12 fly ball outs, allowing five hits, and largely succeeding against Milwaukee at home. The expansive park may keep Milwaukee’s hard hit balls in play and allow LA’s sensational defensive outfield a chance to run them down.
Last year’s playoff hero, Joey Wentz does not handle right-handed hitters well, and never has. They hit .285 this year with 16 homers and 20 doubles. Milwaukee struggled with him in late April, collecting just two runs and two hits in 5 innings with four hitters won’t start this series. In the second-to-last regular season game, Milwaukee beat him up for five runs on six hits in 4 innings.
Matz has been fine against righties in his career, but he’s remaking himself into more of a control/command artist as his stuff wanes with age. It’s not the absolute worst thing—Matz has always been pretty consistent at not going crazy giving up home runs and Milwaukee doesn’t have a good BABIP, but he’s hittable.
The Dodgers will send Matt Cleveland out at least once in the series and he was remarkably consistent against the Mets. 4.2 IP, two runs, five hits. 4.2 IP, two runs, five hits. 2.2 IP, 1 run, 2 hits. He succeeds against both righties and lefties, and has the great stuff to give even a lineup like Milwaukee’s trouble.
If Matz can’t go for some reason, J.B. Bukauskas will likely get a turn. He started against Milwaukee the last game of the year and allowed four runs in 7.1 innings, giving up two home runs. He only walked one and struck out six, which was promising, and may have a chance pitching in LA. His homer-prone ways may get him run early if he needs to start in Milwaukee.
The Dodgers only have two lefties in the pen, but with three left-handed starters, they can send their right-handed relievers to the hill against Milwaukee’s right-handed lineup and dare the manager bot to pinch hit, a strategy that worked wonderfully last year. Aside from Tim Schroeder interestingly enough, all the Dodgers true relievers (not Bukauskas and Corey Kluber as long men) left-handed or right-handed, held righties to an OPS under .700. Only Bobby Spong and Giovanny Gallegos allowed left-handed hitters to post an OPS above .622. It’s a bullpen that can get both righties and lefties out, and they’ll likely be pitching with the platoon advantage most of the time.
A cause for concern for the Dodgers is their defense. Milwaukee will put the ball in play, and the Dodgers defense was terrible in the NLDS, yielding a .385 BABIP and committing six errors. Milwaukee doesn’t have the slap hitters the Mets have, who will put it on the ground and not go for homers, but Milwaukee’s poor BABIP vs the Dodgers poor infield defense could be a subplot worth following.
Dodgers Offense versus Brewers Pitching
The Dodgers offense was more successful this season because their right-handers didn’t have platoon splits, and their lefties hit righties hard. That trend largely played out in the NLDS where the best performers the Dodgers had were left-handed, though Alex Bregman and Luis Robert had strong series as well.
The Dodgers faced a good Mets staff and a great Mets defense and hit reasonably well, with a .260 average and a .748 OPS. However, they hit for a .574 OPS against Mets lefties and a .780 OPS against Mets righties. New York had its moments, but the Dodgers held their own.
That makes for a scintillating matchup where the Dodgers bats will take on a team of mostly right-handed starters, but right-handed starters who happen to be the best pitchers in the league. Milwaukee, as a team, had a 0.82 ERA in the NLDS, an unreal number.
The Brewers allowed four earned runs in the entire series, three credited to likely Cy Young winner Mike Arnold. Hawkeye didn’t pitch badly, he had a splendid 2.08 ERA during the series that happened to lead the team. Branden Andexler worked 8 shutout innings, Tim Kierstead allowed a single run in 6 innings, and the bullpen worked 13.1 scoreless innings.
The key starters for Milwaukee all worked pretty well in last season’s NLDS too. Hawkeye was the one arm who was hit hard, as despite issuing one walk and striking out 14 in 11 innings, he allowed eight runs as Luis Urias and Nomar Mazara had big series against him. Urias is struggling and Mazara is in Texas, so his main nemeses last year shouldn’t be able to bit him this year. Meanwhile, Andexler worked 6 innings allowing three runs, and Kierstead worked 6 innings allowing one run. That was against a Dodgers team more lefty-skewed than this one with the presence of Mazara instead of Robert.
Milwaukee’s bullpen features five righties, one lefty in Aroldis Chapman who handles lefties very well, and a long man in David Meeks who struggles against lefties. Milwaukee may have situations where righties are facing key lefties late, like last year’s Game 6 where Alex Verdugo hit a key home run off Blayne Enlow to cap a six-run, seventh inning rally to give the Dodgers the series.
Milwaukee’s defense was third in zone rating and first in defensive efficiency, so they won’t make mistakes to help the Dodgers. Los Angeles can afford to be aggressive on the bases though as Milwaukee was also second worst in outfield assists.
Season Series
The Brewers won the season series 5-2, taking three of four in late April/early May in Milwaukee and taking two of three the final series of the year in LA to force the Dodgers to an NL West Play-In Game.
The Dodgers took the first game when Joey Wentz and four relievers combined to allow four hits and Jorge Ramos homered twice off Hawkeye in a 5-2 win. Milwaukee evened the series the next day when Tim Kierstead and Edwin Diaz combined on a five-hitter of their own to win 4-2.
A wild back-and-forth third game ended in 12 innings when Luis Rivera hit a walkoff home run off since returned Rule V pick Corey Taylor. Good pitching gave the bullpens somewhat of a rest the following day, and Will Dulihanty doubled off the Center Field wall against Giovanny Gallegos to give the Brewers the lead. In the ninth, with the leadoff man, Willie Calhoun came on to drop down a bunt ahead of Fidel Mejia. Mejia popped out, Luis Urias was plunked, but Luis Robert struck out to give the Brewers the series.
In LA in October, Mike Becker and Luis Rivera opened the final series of the year with home runs, Hawkeye allowed two runs over 5.1, and the Brewers edged out a 5-3 win. They won the series the next day when Brock Straub went 7 shutout, allowing just four hits. The Dodgers salvaged a spot in the NL West Play in by taking the finale 5-4. J.B. Bukauskas allowed four runs in in 7.1, and Gallegos and Penguin Robles locked down the late innings.
Greg Jacks was surprisingly terrible against the Dodgers, going 6-29 with one extra base hit, and Rodolfo Rivera went just 1-12, but Mike Becker was excellent hitting .389 with a pair of homers and a pair of doubles.
For the Dodgers, a number of their hitters struggled. Here are the OPS’ of several key players:
- Keibert Ruiz .316
- Willie Calhoun .541
- Seiya Suzuki .445
- Amin Valdez .583
- Luis Robert .606
- Jeren Kendall .562
- Alex Verdugo .372
The Dodgers will need to depend on their pitching based on those offensive performances.
Deciding Questions
Will Calhoun be able to have a superstar series against Milwaukee’s best starters?
Will Milwaukee’s offense be able to mix and match late or will they get stuck in disadvantageous matchups?
Will Steven Matz be sharp coming off the IL?
Prediction: Milwaukee has shown that they can handle Los Angeles’ bats this year, and they’re more flexible with their substitution patterns than they were last season. The series is low scoring, but the Brewers snap the Dodgers run atop the National League. Brewers 4-2.