2026 ALCS Preview: Houston vs. Baltimore
Sept 26, 2021 17:08:05 GMT -5
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Post by Grubs - Philly on Sept 26, 2021 17:08:05 GMT -5
Houston Astros (93-69) vs. Baltimore Orioles (95-67)
After toppling Seattle in an historic Wild Card drubbing, the Astros found new heights, unseating what was quietly the best team in the American League in Texas. They did it in dramatic style, with a comeback down three games to none and a go-ahead home run by Dansby Swanson in the 8th to edge the Rangers in Game Seven. Meanwhile, Baltimore tightened up on defense, with only a Game One error causing serious damage against a fundamentally sound Kansas City squad. The Orioles hit well and pitched better than they have in a while, locking down a handful of close victories and keeping the Royals to a single run in their final two victories of the six-game series.
Both teams hit each other well in the season series, but Baltimore ran with it, winning five of six. With both of their divisional rivals dispatched, the Astros are eager to send the Orioles packing, but Baltimore has unfinished business after washing out of the ALCS last year.
Injury-wise, the Orioles are without SP Alex Reyes and SS Yunior Severino. Reyes might be a good thing, as the Astros whacked him around pretty mercilessly this year. Severino is a bit of a knock, since he’s the Orioles’ primary shortstop and was a reliable bat. The Astros took a big hit, too, though: Austin Meadows will be out for the rest of the playoffs – however long that might be.
Baltimore offense vs. Houston pitching
If any team can miss a solidly above-average bat without skipping a beat, it’s Baltimore. While key players like 1B Francisco DeJesus, 2B Mike Floyd and 3B Joe DeCarlo underperformed, the Orioles still popped a league-leading 266 home runs. Wessell Russchen missed a bunch of time, but he’s a 5-WAR player. His ALDS was underwhelming, but he remains one of the most dangerous bats in the league. DeJesus and Floyd look to have bounced back in the playoffs. The Orioles got past a very good Kansas City team while once again not playing up to their potential.
Houston’s been good enough to hang in the AL’s toughest division. Jorge Cotto won 20 games and was a bona fide ace during the regular season, but was something less than the deGrominator during the ALDS. Miracle Man Sergio Murillo has kept it together in the playoffs. Jeff Morrison wasn’t great in his last outing, but he’s been good enough to keep the team in it and Houston’s won both of his outings. The Astros are a little shaky in the bullpen, relying on Diego Cordero in five of the seven games against Texas. He had one true meltdown, allowed a run in another game and pitched three clean outings. Mitchell Stone wasn’t great as a closer, despite being wonderful as a setup man during the year. The ‘stros miss Antonio Santillan, as would any team that had a 41-save, 5-win, 0.80 ERA guy at the back end.
Houston offense vs. Baltimore pitching
The Astros don’t have an overwhelming offense, but it’s skilled and deep. They’ll miss Austin Meadows, but guys like Nick Senzel, Jonathan Lawhorn and even Austin Bodrato can get on base to set the table. Ichisake Ochiai and Michael Franco have plenty of oomph to get them in. Blake Paugh has been terrific off the bench. He’s played third almost exclusively for Houston, but the Cardinals used him all over the infield. Houston is having a terrific postseason offensively, and if it keeps up, expect them to give the Orioles all the trouble they gave Texas.
Baltimore’s pitching was a little bit of a mixed bag in the ALCS. Dariwnzon Hernandez and Tommy Stanfield pitched well and Sean Newcomb was lights out in relief. Regular season ace Sam Carlson wasn’t great, but ran into some BABIP trouble. The Orioles’s 2025 featured a lot of guys pitching better than they ever had before. This year saw expected regression and the Orioles don’t have a good defense. It can mean errors and it can also mean higher-than-expected BABIP numbers. Guys like Stanfield and Devin Ortiz had FIPs about 1.4 points below their ERA. With Reyes out, Ortiz will likely take his spot in the rotation. GM Vic Black usually stashes a bunch of quality guys in AAA, so it’s not much to worry about.
Defense
Houston’s defense is middling. Freudis Nova has Gold Glove skills at second base, and the team’s outfield can hold its own. Around the infield, the picture isn’t pretty, but it’s not terrible.
As mentioned previously Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in team zone and defensive efficiency. With Mike Floyd back at 2B and DeJesus at 1B, an error-prone Joe DeCarlo at third and a second-choice shortstop, Houston might get lucky.
What to watch for
If the Orioles get it together, they can sweep the Astros and never look back.
Losing Reyes might not be brutal for Baltimore, but it further weakens an already weak infield. Expect BABIP troubles to continue...not the kind of opportunity you want to give a team like the Astros.
Prediction: Orioles in 7
Questions for Neil Ehm:
What’s your plan to fill Austin Meadows spot in the outfield?
Any big changes to the bullpen as you look to address Santillan’s absence?
Questions for Vic Black:
Why didn’t you answer my last questions?
Who gets the nod at short?
After toppling Seattle in an historic Wild Card drubbing, the Astros found new heights, unseating what was quietly the best team in the American League in Texas. They did it in dramatic style, with a comeback down three games to none and a go-ahead home run by Dansby Swanson in the 8th to edge the Rangers in Game Seven. Meanwhile, Baltimore tightened up on defense, with only a Game One error causing serious damage against a fundamentally sound Kansas City squad. The Orioles hit well and pitched better than they have in a while, locking down a handful of close victories and keeping the Royals to a single run in their final two victories of the six-game series.
Both teams hit each other well in the season series, but Baltimore ran with it, winning five of six. With both of their divisional rivals dispatched, the Astros are eager to send the Orioles packing, but Baltimore has unfinished business after washing out of the ALCS last year.
Injury-wise, the Orioles are without SP Alex Reyes and SS Yunior Severino. Reyes might be a good thing, as the Astros whacked him around pretty mercilessly this year. Severino is a bit of a knock, since he’s the Orioles’ primary shortstop and was a reliable bat. The Astros took a big hit, too, though: Austin Meadows will be out for the rest of the playoffs – however long that might be.
Baltimore offense vs. Houston pitching
If any team can miss a solidly above-average bat without skipping a beat, it’s Baltimore. While key players like 1B Francisco DeJesus, 2B Mike Floyd and 3B Joe DeCarlo underperformed, the Orioles still popped a league-leading 266 home runs. Wessell Russchen missed a bunch of time, but he’s a 5-WAR player. His ALDS was underwhelming, but he remains one of the most dangerous bats in the league. DeJesus and Floyd look to have bounced back in the playoffs. The Orioles got past a very good Kansas City team while once again not playing up to their potential.
Houston’s been good enough to hang in the AL’s toughest division. Jorge Cotto won 20 games and was a bona fide ace during the regular season, but was something less than the deGrominator during the ALDS. Miracle Man Sergio Murillo has kept it together in the playoffs. Jeff Morrison wasn’t great in his last outing, but he’s been good enough to keep the team in it and Houston’s won both of his outings. The Astros are a little shaky in the bullpen, relying on Diego Cordero in five of the seven games against Texas. He had one true meltdown, allowed a run in another game and pitched three clean outings. Mitchell Stone wasn’t great as a closer, despite being wonderful as a setup man during the year. The ‘stros miss Antonio Santillan, as would any team that had a 41-save, 5-win, 0.80 ERA guy at the back end.
Houston offense vs. Baltimore pitching
The Astros don’t have an overwhelming offense, but it’s skilled and deep. They’ll miss Austin Meadows, but guys like Nick Senzel, Jonathan Lawhorn and even Austin Bodrato can get on base to set the table. Ichisake Ochiai and Michael Franco have plenty of oomph to get them in. Blake Paugh has been terrific off the bench. He’s played third almost exclusively for Houston, but the Cardinals used him all over the infield. Houston is having a terrific postseason offensively, and if it keeps up, expect them to give the Orioles all the trouble they gave Texas.
Baltimore’s pitching was a little bit of a mixed bag in the ALCS. Dariwnzon Hernandez and Tommy Stanfield pitched well and Sean Newcomb was lights out in relief. Regular season ace Sam Carlson wasn’t great, but ran into some BABIP trouble. The Orioles’s 2025 featured a lot of guys pitching better than they ever had before. This year saw expected regression and the Orioles don’t have a good defense. It can mean errors and it can also mean higher-than-expected BABIP numbers. Guys like Stanfield and Devin Ortiz had FIPs about 1.4 points below their ERA. With Reyes out, Ortiz will likely take his spot in the rotation. GM Vic Black usually stashes a bunch of quality guys in AAA, so it’s not much to worry about.
Defense
Houston’s defense is middling. Freudis Nova has Gold Glove skills at second base, and the team’s outfield can hold its own. Around the infield, the picture isn’t pretty, but it’s not terrible.
As mentioned previously Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in team zone and defensive efficiency. With Mike Floyd back at 2B and DeJesus at 1B, an error-prone Joe DeCarlo at third and a second-choice shortstop, Houston might get lucky.
What to watch for
If the Orioles get it together, they can sweep the Astros and never look back.
Losing Reyes might not be brutal for Baltimore, but it further weakens an already weak infield. Expect BABIP troubles to continue...not the kind of opportunity you want to give a team like the Astros.
Prediction: Orioles in 7
Questions for Neil Ehm:
What’s your plan to fill Austin Meadows spot in the outfield?
Any big changes to the bullpen as you look to address Santillan’s absence?
Questions for Vic Black:
Why didn’t you answer my last questions?
Who gets the nod at short?