2027 NL Central Preview
Nov 26, 2021 19:15:31 GMT -5
Grubs - Philly, brewersgm, and 1 more like this
Post by Commissioner Erick on Nov 26, 2021 19:15:31 GMT -5
The 2027 NL Central race should largely be uncompetitive with the Brewers a cut above the rest of the division. However, several NL Central clubs have big prospects just on the horizon to help push along rebuilds, and new management may light a fire under Chicago’s aging superstars.
1) Milwaukee Brewers
2026: 112-50, NL Central Champions. Defeated San Francisco 4-1 in NLDS. Lost to Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3 in NLCS.
Who They Were: The Brewers were a 112 win juggernaut with a great offense and the best staff in the National League. They platooned heavily, resulting in 13 players producing 0.9 WAR or better. Mike Arnold went 16-6 with a 2.47 ERA, good for 9.0 WAR and the Cy Young Award. Their staff was dominant in the postseason as well, but after taking a commanding 3-0 series lead on the Los Angeles Dodgers, their offense scored eight runs the rest of the series in becoming the first NL team to blow a 3-0 series lead in the PBA.
Offseason Review: Milwaukee hasn’t done too much this offseason. They’ve lost superstar closer Edwin Diaz, as well as Mitch Cavanagh, and Aroldis Chapman from a pretty good bullpen. Internal options will replace them, with Holden Christian brought in to challenge as well. Right-hand Third Baseman Bobby Dalbec was also let go with the team considering a host of options, including letting starting Third Baseman Matt Aceto play more against lefties.
On The Farm: It’s a good system, especially at Third Base, with Nick Rollins the star of the class. The young Third Baseman has an advanced bat and should be able to contribute this year. He’s the favorite to take over for Bobby Dalbec. Grant Stein is another good looking Third Baseman. He’s hit well in the low minors and should be in the mid-minors this season.
Best Case Scenario: The Brewers offense puts it together in the playoffs and Milwaukee takes home a title.
Worst Case Scenario: The Dodgers win the NL West
Key Questions: you’ve had a platoon-heavy approach that has worked in the regular season, but your offenses have struggled in the playoffs. Do you feel like you may need to consolidate your talent instead of going for a platoon approach?
Who will be your right-hand hitting Third Baseman to spell Matt Aceto?
2) Chicago Cubs
2026: 70-92, 4th Place NL Central.
Who They Were: The Cubs had a stars and scrubs roster, with a handful of elite players, and ghastly depth behind the top guys. Some of their top guys were poor defenders, hurting their value, and some guys like Manny Machado were hurt. Six players played more than 40 games and had negative WAR, while Kris Bryant followed a 6.2 WAR season with a 1.0 season. They also struggled with depth in their rotation, giving 32 starts to A.J. Toet, who had a 5.41 ERA.
Offseason Review: The Cubs let Wilson Contreras go and traded Manny Machado to help get out of financial ruin. Leonardo Gonzalez was brought aboard to help with the club’s defense. They still have their big contracts on the books for awhile, and the hope is some of their young players will make modest improvements with another season under the books.
On The Farm: The Machado trade brought back Tillman Corriga. Who may make the majors and spend the year in Triple-A. David Janes pitched well in Double-A last year. He struggled in Triple-A, but a year of seasoning should have him up on the club soon. There still isn’t much position player talent in the system, but finally the Cubs have a few depth pieces in their system.
Best Case Scenario: The youngsters are competent and the top players play great, leading the Cubs to 84 wins.
Worst Case Scenario: The stars continue to age poorly. If Bryant, Polanco, or Smith play poorly, there isn’t enough depth to compensate. The team could lose 95 games.
Key Questions: What’s the outlook for the Cubs? You’re taking over a team with big names and big contracts. Will you try to add to the club or look to rebuild?
You have a number of decent outfielders and a hole at Third Base with Manny Machado moving on. Any thought to moving Kris Bryant to Third Base?
3) Cincinnati Reds
2026: 88-74, 2nd Place NL Central
Who They Were: For the third time in the past four years, Cincinnati won at least 80 games. The club took home 88 wins in the best year in franchise history. The team wasn’t great at one particular aspect, but they had a good offense, a good staff, and a good defense, with each element fueled by a star. Vinny Escudero anchored the offense with a .306 average, 38 homers and 113 RBIs. Josh Carlson was the ace with 15 wins, a 3.67 ERA, and 5.2 WAR. Juan Samuel Franco led the defense with a career high 23.6 Zone Rating. Each is in the prime of his career so the Reds are expected similar production from the trio.
Offseason Review: One of Cincinnati’s main supporting cast members was traded away when Harland Guenette was sent to Kansas City. The club will need to replace Jimmie Herron’s 2.3 WAR, plus two solid starting pitchers in Osiris German and Jose Quintana. The Reds brought on Paul Goldschmidt to play First Base, and Mitch Cavanagh to add some rotation depth.
On the Farm: There’s some depth to the Reds system, but the best players are some ways away from contributing. Hoss Knutsen is the best ranked prospect, and he projects to be a terrific bat who’ll likely start contributing in 2028. Vince Dubin looks like a future number-two starter, but he’s in the mid-minors. Mike Dentino and Olaf Khan look to complement Dubin as mid-rotation arms, as each are in the mid-minors. Terrance Luas projects to be a player with a quick bat, big power, and fast legs. He, too, is in the mid-minors. James Gillen is the one pitcher in the upper minors who can provide a boost. He has a huge fastball and a great splitter. Once he perfects the action on the splitter, he’ll be a major weapon out of the pen.
Best Case Scenario: The same formula from 2026 carries over and the team wins another 88 games.
Worst Case Scenario: Last year was the only year Josh Carlson didn’t allow a ton of home runs, and the team traded away perhaps its second best position player in Harlan Guenette. Without a ton of star power, regression can hit the Reds hard and deliver a 72 win season.
Key Questions: Why did you decide to move on from Guenette?
What will be your starting outfield this year and why?
4) St. Louis Cardinals
2026: 74-88, 3rd Place NL Central
Who They Were: The Cardinals were incredibly busy in 2026, shedding salary and remaking their team. They los Nick Pratto, but still won four more games than they did in 2025. Josh Weyer emerged as a star at Third Base, helping the team finish third in home runs. However, the team was second to worst in Zone Rating and ERA as they weren’t a good run prevention. They also finished third to last in average, failing to supplement their power by getting on base.
Offseason Review: The Cardinals continued to tear down some of the expensive salaries on their books. Mike Zunino, and Logan Warmoth were not retained, and Joc Pederson and his $25 million contract was traded. The team also moved on from Gator Jacobsen and Luke Weaver, meaning they’ll have four new starting position players and a new starting pitcher this year. Franklin Barreto and Trent Clark will fill two of the position in the lineup, with Chance Adams and Osiris German hoping to bolster the rotation. Jasrado Chisholm and Isan Diaz should fill a few infield spots, and a number of veteran minor league free agents should add depth.
On the Farm: It’s a good farm in terms of pitchers, not in terms of position players. Luis Detres was a Top 10 prospect after the season ended and may start the year in the minors. He has ace potential when he fully develops. John Kadlecik and Aaron Wallace, like Detres, are likely a year away from being truly impactful starters, but both could be up this season. Danny Medina is further along in the timeline, but also has major upside. Almost all the position player talent is at Third Base. Jonathan Cardona looks like a future starter at the hot corner, but is a couple of seasons away.
Best Case Scenario: Young pitchers taking a step forward team with the new arms adding stability. The offense remains potent and helps the Cardinals win 82 games.
Worst Case Scenario: Sergio Ochoa struggles, and the pitching staff struggles with him. A lack of developed high-end talent has the Cardinals losing 94 games.
Key Questions: You have several talented youngsters in arms Luis Detres and Aaron Wallace, plus exciting infielder Joe Mills. How will you handle you top prospects this year in terms of service time?
You have a ton of options for your infield. What will your starting infield be and why?
5) Pittsburgh Pirates
2026: 70-92, Last Place NL Central
Who They Were: The Pirates won 17-games more than 2026 and nine games more than Pythagoras expected in a successful 2026 season. The season was successful because the rebuilding club identified several key pieces for the future. Bad Company Kevin Truitt had a 3.55 ERA and struck out more than a batter an inning in his rookie year. The club stuck Juan Ochoa in the pen and he had a strong rookie year as a closer, and should have the confidence now to return to the rotation. Ron Dahl and Juan Vega but hit well, and Mounds Ramos drove in 113 runs and was a Rookie of the Year candidate.
Offseason Review: The Pirates didn’t do anything of note in the offseason, continuing to patiently add talent through the draft. The young players that got time last year should continue to get time this season, and the team should start seeing several excellent pitching prospects begin to mix into the rotation.
On The Farm: There are top-flight pitching prospects in the upper minors. Bad Company graduated this year, but other big arms are right behind. Second overall pick last year, Sergio Navarro, is a fast mover. He may spend some time in the minors to develop his curveball, or he may spend some time in the pen as well. He won’t be long until he’s in Pittsburgh’s starting rotation though. Chris Donelson was fine in Triple-A last year and may get another chance to dominate this year. He’s an advanced arm that could be this year. Jayden Prescott struggled in Double-A last year and may need an extra season. He throws 100 miles-per-hour and looks like another front-rotation arm. Nelson Hernandez is on a similar trajectory. A three-pitch pitcher with good stuff and control, he’ll likely be up no later than mid-season 2029. There aren’t many position player prospects that aren’t mid-minors Catchers, but the Pirates should have an exceptional and young rotation as the decade closes.
Best Case Scenario: The youngsters come up soon, dominate, and pitch the Pirates to 81 wins.
Worst Case Scenario: Mike McAvoy is patient with the staff, the offense continues to struggle, and the club loses 100 games.
Key Questions: What will your approach be with your top arms. Will we see them to start the year, sometime in mid-season, or will they develop in the minors this year?
Who looks like the better Center Field prospect for you, Ron Dahl or Luis Tapia?
1) Milwaukee Brewers
2026: 112-50, NL Central Champions. Defeated San Francisco 4-1 in NLDS. Lost to Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3 in NLCS.
Who They Were: The Brewers were a 112 win juggernaut with a great offense and the best staff in the National League. They platooned heavily, resulting in 13 players producing 0.9 WAR or better. Mike Arnold went 16-6 with a 2.47 ERA, good for 9.0 WAR and the Cy Young Award. Their staff was dominant in the postseason as well, but after taking a commanding 3-0 series lead on the Los Angeles Dodgers, their offense scored eight runs the rest of the series in becoming the first NL team to blow a 3-0 series lead in the PBA.
Offseason Review: Milwaukee hasn’t done too much this offseason. They’ve lost superstar closer Edwin Diaz, as well as Mitch Cavanagh, and Aroldis Chapman from a pretty good bullpen. Internal options will replace them, with Holden Christian brought in to challenge as well. Right-hand Third Baseman Bobby Dalbec was also let go with the team considering a host of options, including letting starting Third Baseman Matt Aceto play more against lefties.
On The Farm: It’s a good system, especially at Third Base, with Nick Rollins the star of the class. The young Third Baseman has an advanced bat and should be able to contribute this year. He’s the favorite to take over for Bobby Dalbec. Grant Stein is another good looking Third Baseman. He’s hit well in the low minors and should be in the mid-minors this season.
Best Case Scenario: The Brewers offense puts it together in the playoffs and Milwaukee takes home a title.
Worst Case Scenario: The Dodgers win the NL West
Key Questions: you’ve had a platoon-heavy approach that has worked in the regular season, but your offenses have struggled in the playoffs. Do you feel like you may need to consolidate your talent instead of going for a platoon approach?
Who will be your right-hand hitting Third Baseman to spell Matt Aceto?
2) Chicago Cubs
2026: 70-92, 4th Place NL Central.
Who They Were: The Cubs had a stars and scrubs roster, with a handful of elite players, and ghastly depth behind the top guys. Some of their top guys were poor defenders, hurting their value, and some guys like Manny Machado were hurt. Six players played more than 40 games and had negative WAR, while Kris Bryant followed a 6.2 WAR season with a 1.0 season. They also struggled with depth in their rotation, giving 32 starts to A.J. Toet, who had a 5.41 ERA.
Offseason Review: The Cubs let Wilson Contreras go and traded Manny Machado to help get out of financial ruin. Leonardo Gonzalez was brought aboard to help with the club’s defense. They still have their big contracts on the books for awhile, and the hope is some of their young players will make modest improvements with another season under the books.
On The Farm: The Machado trade brought back Tillman Corriga. Who may make the majors and spend the year in Triple-A. David Janes pitched well in Double-A last year. He struggled in Triple-A, but a year of seasoning should have him up on the club soon. There still isn’t much position player talent in the system, but finally the Cubs have a few depth pieces in their system.
Best Case Scenario: The youngsters are competent and the top players play great, leading the Cubs to 84 wins.
Worst Case Scenario: The stars continue to age poorly. If Bryant, Polanco, or Smith play poorly, there isn’t enough depth to compensate. The team could lose 95 games.
Key Questions: What’s the outlook for the Cubs? You’re taking over a team with big names and big contracts. Will you try to add to the club or look to rebuild?
You have a number of decent outfielders and a hole at Third Base with Manny Machado moving on. Any thought to moving Kris Bryant to Third Base?
3) Cincinnati Reds
2026: 88-74, 2nd Place NL Central
Who They Were: For the third time in the past four years, Cincinnati won at least 80 games. The club took home 88 wins in the best year in franchise history. The team wasn’t great at one particular aspect, but they had a good offense, a good staff, and a good defense, with each element fueled by a star. Vinny Escudero anchored the offense with a .306 average, 38 homers and 113 RBIs. Josh Carlson was the ace with 15 wins, a 3.67 ERA, and 5.2 WAR. Juan Samuel Franco led the defense with a career high 23.6 Zone Rating. Each is in the prime of his career so the Reds are expected similar production from the trio.
Offseason Review: One of Cincinnati’s main supporting cast members was traded away when Harland Guenette was sent to Kansas City. The club will need to replace Jimmie Herron’s 2.3 WAR, plus two solid starting pitchers in Osiris German and Jose Quintana. The Reds brought on Paul Goldschmidt to play First Base, and Mitch Cavanagh to add some rotation depth.
On the Farm: There’s some depth to the Reds system, but the best players are some ways away from contributing. Hoss Knutsen is the best ranked prospect, and he projects to be a terrific bat who’ll likely start contributing in 2028. Vince Dubin looks like a future number-two starter, but he’s in the mid-minors. Mike Dentino and Olaf Khan look to complement Dubin as mid-rotation arms, as each are in the mid-minors. Terrance Luas projects to be a player with a quick bat, big power, and fast legs. He, too, is in the mid-minors. James Gillen is the one pitcher in the upper minors who can provide a boost. He has a huge fastball and a great splitter. Once he perfects the action on the splitter, he’ll be a major weapon out of the pen.
Best Case Scenario: The same formula from 2026 carries over and the team wins another 88 games.
Worst Case Scenario: Last year was the only year Josh Carlson didn’t allow a ton of home runs, and the team traded away perhaps its second best position player in Harlan Guenette. Without a ton of star power, regression can hit the Reds hard and deliver a 72 win season.
Key Questions: Why did you decide to move on from Guenette?
What will be your starting outfield this year and why?
4) St. Louis Cardinals
2026: 74-88, 3rd Place NL Central
Who They Were: The Cardinals were incredibly busy in 2026, shedding salary and remaking their team. They los Nick Pratto, but still won four more games than they did in 2025. Josh Weyer emerged as a star at Third Base, helping the team finish third in home runs. However, the team was second to worst in Zone Rating and ERA as they weren’t a good run prevention. They also finished third to last in average, failing to supplement their power by getting on base.
Offseason Review: The Cardinals continued to tear down some of the expensive salaries on their books. Mike Zunino, and Logan Warmoth were not retained, and Joc Pederson and his $25 million contract was traded. The team also moved on from Gator Jacobsen and Luke Weaver, meaning they’ll have four new starting position players and a new starting pitcher this year. Franklin Barreto and Trent Clark will fill two of the position in the lineup, with Chance Adams and Osiris German hoping to bolster the rotation. Jasrado Chisholm and Isan Diaz should fill a few infield spots, and a number of veteran minor league free agents should add depth.
On the Farm: It’s a good farm in terms of pitchers, not in terms of position players. Luis Detres was a Top 10 prospect after the season ended and may start the year in the minors. He has ace potential when he fully develops. John Kadlecik and Aaron Wallace, like Detres, are likely a year away from being truly impactful starters, but both could be up this season. Danny Medina is further along in the timeline, but also has major upside. Almost all the position player talent is at Third Base. Jonathan Cardona looks like a future starter at the hot corner, but is a couple of seasons away.
Best Case Scenario: Young pitchers taking a step forward team with the new arms adding stability. The offense remains potent and helps the Cardinals win 82 games.
Worst Case Scenario: Sergio Ochoa struggles, and the pitching staff struggles with him. A lack of developed high-end talent has the Cardinals losing 94 games.
Key Questions: You have several talented youngsters in arms Luis Detres and Aaron Wallace, plus exciting infielder Joe Mills. How will you handle you top prospects this year in terms of service time?
You have a ton of options for your infield. What will your starting infield be and why?
5) Pittsburgh Pirates
2026: 70-92, Last Place NL Central
Who They Were: The Pirates won 17-games more than 2026 and nine games more than Pythagoras expected in a successful 2026 season. The season was successful because the rebuilding club identified several key pieces for the future. Bad Company Kevin Truitt had a 3.55 ERA and struck out more than a batter an inning in his rookie year. The club stuck Juan Ochoa in the pen and he had a strong rookie year as a closer, and should have the confidence now to return to the rotation. Ron Dahl and Juan Vega but hit well, and Mounds Ramos drove in 113 runs and was a Rookie of the Year candidate.
Offseason Review: The Pirates didn’t do anything of note in the offseason, continuing to patiently add talent through the draft. The young players that got time last year should continue to get time this season, and the team should start seeing several excellent pitching prospects begin to mix into the rotation.
On The Farm: There are top-flight pitching prospects in the upper minors. Bad Company graduated this year, but other big arms are right behind. Second overall pick last year, Sergio Navarro, is a fast mover. He may spend some time in the minors to develop his curveball, or he may spend some time in the pen as well. He won’t be long until he’s in Pittsburgh’s starting rotation though. Chris Donelson was fine in Triple-A last year and may get another chance to dominate this year. He’s an advanced arm that could be this year. Jayden Prescott struggled in Double-A last year and may need an extra season. He throws 100 miles-per-hour and looks like another front-rotation arm. Nelson Hernandez is on a similar trajectory. A three-pitch pitcher with good stuff and control, he’ll likely be up no later than mid-season 2029. There aren’t many position player prospects that aren’t mid-minors Catchers, but the Pirates should have an exceptional and young rotation as the decade closes.
Best Case Scenario: The youngsters come up soon, dominate, and pitch the Pirates to 81 wins.
Worst Case Scenario: Mike McAvoy is patient with the staff, the offense continues to struggle, and the club loses 100 games.
Key Questions: What will your approach be with your top arms. Will we see them to start the year, sometime in mid-season, or will they develop in the minors this year?
Who looks like the better Center Field prospect for you, Ron Dahl or Luis Tapia?
Jasrado Chisholm and Isan Diaz are viewed purely as organizational depth right now. If there's any infield injuries before the end of April, they could get called up. Otherwise I expect they'll opt out for FA in May. Unfortunately, Rule V pick Kevin Ecevit will likely be sent back on Opening Day. I like him a lot, but Russell is taking his spot as my utility infielder and if I cut Russell now, I have to pay those vesting options. 
