Post by Commissioner Erick on Mar 9, 2022 10:08:08 GMT -5
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers battled key injuries, surprising struggles, and a relative lack of superstar performances to still navigate a tough NL West on the way to yet another 100 win season. The two-time defending champion still ended up in the Wild Card Game after being edged by the San Francisco Giants by a single game.
The Dodgers will have to defend their crown against a surging Washington Nationals, which rose from the grave over the summer and are one of the hottest teams in baseball. The two teams surprisingly have only met in the playoffs once, in 2019, when the Dodgers beat the Nationals 4-2 in the NLDS on the way to their first World Series title.
Dodgers Offense versus Nationals Pitching
The Dodgers offense was more solid than spectacular, but still produced the fourth most runs in the league. Balance is their strength. Nine different players had double digit home runs and their two starters who didn’t hit over .300. Luis Robert was easily the team’s best player, hitting .302 with 34 Home Runs and 116 RBIs. He missed most of September with a hamstring strain, but will be good to go for the Wild Card Game.
The Dodgers as a team really control the plate. They’re fourth best at drawing walks and second best at avoiding strikeouts. While that contact leads to the club hitting into the second most double plays in the league, they do very well on balls in play with a .311 BABIP that ranks fourth in the NL.
Only two Dodgers regulars have a below average strikeout rate: Maikel Franco at 22.3%, and Jeren Kendall at 35.4. In fact, Luis Urias’ strikeout rate is just 6.5% this year and is 6.9% all time, second best all-time to Eric Drouet among players with at least 758 plate appearances.
This is important because the Dodgers will be facing the K-God, Eric Pena. Pena led the league in strikeouts for the fifth straight year, producing 300 for the fourth season in a row. He cut a stupid home run rate this year, allowing 47 last year and just 16 this season. He also rebounded from an awful April where he had a 5.67 ERA, which following a mediocre 4.25 mark last year, hinted that he was perhaps on a decline. Nope. Starting with a May 15 start in Los Angeles where he worked 7.1 shutout innings against the Dodgers, he worked 149.2 innings allowing 26 earned runs, good for a 1.57 ERA.
The Dodgers will be facing a historically good pitcher at the peak of his powers. Pena hasn’t pitched as deep into games this year as he has in years past, but runs will be at a premium.
Even though his home run rate has been good this year, the best bet for the Dodgers may be hoping for the longball. With Los Angeles’ deep stable of power hitters, they have seven hitters who can perhaps put a charge into the ball and hit it over the fence. Luis Urias has a .278 average off Pena. If he can get on base ahead of a Robert or Machado home runs that may be enough until the Dodgers can get into Washington’s bullpen.
The Dodgers likely won’t have a deep bench, but Wuilmer Becerra has hit lefties historically and had an .820 OPS this year if he needs to be called upon. Maikel Franco will also likely be on the bench, but he’s had three of the four highest OPS+ marks of his career the last four years, continuing to mash into his mid-30s.
The Dodgers likely won’t need their bench as Washington only carries one lefty. Vlashi Buzoku held lefties to a .218 average this year and may be a weapon against the bottom of the Dodgers order. The rest of the Washington pen may include up to eight righty relievers. Omar Lara has been fantastic as a closer, limiting homers and striking out 116 in 64.1 innings, but a 12.64 walk rate could open the door against a team that controls the zone like Los Angeles. Jon Carter may be a key arm for Washington. He’s allowed two homers all year, but walked 34 in 52 innings, while whiffing 76. He may be an arm the Dodgers can wait out for base hits.
Nationals Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
Washington’s offense should be whole for the first time in awhile with oft-injured Alex Bregman returning to the team. Bregman’s played just 57 Games this year but gives Washington a powerful offensive player to a team that’s extremely top heavy. Only three National regulars had an OPS+ above 101. Washington can use the boost.
Bryce Harper is still a nightmare for hitters, but he’s not as inevitable as he was in seasons prior, with a .939 OPS a career low. Bob Beasley has really stepped up as a fantastic hitter to complement Harper as he has 100 doubles the last two seasons, and clubbed 31 homers with 117 RBIs this year. Washington also has Mike Trout, but he’s been incredibly erratic—hitting under .200 for two months, posting a .577 OPS in June, but still rallying for a strong second half. Trout had a .767 OPS that he needed to rally to hit, but he hit just .228 with 26 home runs and 22 doubles. He still walks a ton, but that isn’t as valuable ahead of a weak bottom of the Nationals order. If he steps up and plays like a Hall of Famer, Washington can beat anybody. If he plays like how he’s played most of the season, Washington is very vulnerable.
The bottom of Washington’s order is filled with low-OBP sluggers like Shane Benes and Daniel Flores, who’ll double or homer, but won’t walk.
Washington will steal bases to manufacture offense though as Luis V. Garcia and Victor Robles are second and third in the NL in steals.
Los Angeles will send Joey Wentz to the mound to deal with the Nationals. It will be an interesting chouse with the Nationals having an .801 OPS against lefties and a .733 OPS against righties. Wentz has a solid playoff resume with a 3.84 career ERA in 61 postseason innings. His strikeouts are down a bit and his walks are slightly up, but he suppressed BABIP and homers on the way to an 11-6 record and a 3.15 ERA. Washington is excellent at drawing walks and has a high BABIP, so Wentz may be able to neutralize those strengths. It will all come down to whether he can get Washington’s righties out—and he held righties to a .605 OPS this season.
In the bullpen, the Dodgers have three lefties, but are primarily right-handed. Eric Groves is a specialist who may only be used for Harper, but Travis Tyre and Arturo Pedraza don’t generally have handedness restrictions. Pedroza had neutral splits, though righties hit a bit more homers off him, while Tyre held righties to a .219 average. In fact, Giovanny Gallegos is the only pitcher who allowed higher than a .717 OPS to righties, but that’s an anomaly compared to career norms.
Penguin Robles has held opponents to a career .496 OPS against righties and should be able to dominate Washington’s lineup—except for Harper. Lefties have been able to homer off Robles in his career, and Harper has two homers in four at bats against Penguin. The Dodgers best strategy in the ninth may be to just walk Bam Bam.
The Dodgers defense is terrible on the right side of the infield but spectacular in the outfield. A lefty on the mound and righties at the plate should mitigate the shortcomings and Wentz’ fly ball tendencies will allow the outfield defense to play up. As long as the balls stay in play, Gold Glover Jeren Kendall, Jorge Ramos, and Alex Verdugo should track them down. Plus the battery of Joey Wentz and Hyo-sang Choo is perfectly equipped for shutting down a running game. Los Angeles may be one of the worst opponents for the Nationals offense to face.
Season Series:
The Dodgers won the season series 4-3, splitting a series in LA in May, then winning two of three in Washington over the summer. The split in Los Angeles was very low scoring with the Nats outscoring the Dodgers 13-11. The Dodgers won the first game after falling behind 3-0 in the first. The bullpen pitched 5 hitless innings, Jeren Kendall hit a walkoff homer, and the Dodgers won 4-3.
Washington got the next two behind stellar starting pitching. Luis D. Guzman and Eric Pena combined for 15 innings of one-run ball as Washington won a pair of close games. The Dodgers again came up with late inning magic in the finale though, erasing a 3-0 deficit with a walk and three singles, the last of which was an Eric Robert blooper to short right that brought home two off Jon Carter. Washington got the first two on in the 10th but Penguin Robles got a double play off Bob Beasley to end the threat, and Many Machado hit a walkoff homer in the 10th to end it.
Washington took the first game at home behind stellar pitching. Eric Pena went 6.1 innings, allowing two hits, a walk, no runs, and striking out 13. The Dodgers continued to get good bullpen work the next day to tie the series with Travis Tyre allowing a run in 3 innings of a 5-2 Dodgers win. The finale was the first day an offense broke out with Alex Verdugo collecting four hits and Willie Calhoun homering and driving in four to lead the Dodgers to a 10-5 win.
Deciding Questions:
Can the Dodgers scratch a run off Pena for the first time this year?
Who will win the battle between Joey Wentz and Eric Pena?
Will Hall of Fame Mike Trout or Replacement Level Mike Trout show up?
Prediction: This game will likely be an incredibly low-scoring game. The Nationals will get a couple of runs early, but the Dodgers will come up with a key late homer to advance. Dodgers 3-2.
The Los Angeles Dodgers battled key injuries, surprising struggles, and a relative lack of superstar performances to still navigate a tough NL West on the way to yet another 100 win season. The two-time defending champion still ended up in the Wild Card Game after being edged by the San Francisco Giants by a single game.
The Dodgers will have to defend their crown against a surging Washington Nationals, which rose from the grave over the summer and are one of the hottest teams in baseball. The two teams surprisingly have only met in the playoffs once, in 2019, when the Dodgers beat the Nationals 4-2 in the NLDS on the way to their first World Series title.
Dodgers Offense versus Nationals Pitching
The Dodgers offense was more solid than spectacular, but still produced the fourth most runs in the league. Balance is their strength. Nine different players had double digit home runs and their two starters who didn’t hit over .300. Luis Robert was easily the team’s best player, hitting .302 with 34 Home Runs and 116 RBIs. He missed most of September with a hamstring strain, but will be good to go for the Wild Card Game.
The Dodgers as a team really control the plate. They’re fourth best at drawing walks and second best at avoiding strikeouts. While that contact leads to the club hitting into the second most double plays in the league, they do very well on balls in play with a .311 BABIP that ranks fourth in the NL.
Only two Dodgers regulars have a below average strikeout rate: Maikel Franco at 22.3%, and Jeren Kendall at 35.4. In fact, Luis Urias’ strikeout rate is just 6.5% this year and is 6.9% all time, second best all-time to Eric Drouet among players with at least 758 plate appearances.
This is important because the Dodgers will be facing the K-God, Eric Pena. Pena led the league in strikeouts for the fifth straight year, producing 300 for the fourth season in a row. He cut a stupid home run rate this year, allowing 47 last year and just 16 this season. He also rebounded from an awful April where he had a 5.67 ERA, which following a mediocre 4.25 mark last year, hinted that he was perhaps on a decline. Nope. Starting with a May 15 start in Los Angeles where he worked 7.1 shutout innings against the Dodgers, he worked 149.2 innings allowing 26 earned runs, good for a 1.57 ERA.
The Dodgers will be facing a historically good pitcher at the peak of his powers. Pena hasn’t pitched as deep into games this year as he has in years past, but runs will be at a premium.
Even though his home run rate has been good this year, the best bet for the Dodgers may be hoping for the longball. With Los Angeles’ deep stable of power hitters, they have seven hitters who can perhaps put a charge into the ball and hit it over the fence. Luis Urias has a .278 average off Pena. If he can get on base ahead of a Robert or Machado home runs that may be enough until the Dodgers can get into Washington’s bullpen.
The Dodgers likely won’t have a deep bench, but Wuilmer Becerra has hit lefties historically and had an .820 OPS this year if he needs to be called upon. Maikel Franco will also likely be on the bench, but he’s had three of the four highest OPS+ marks of his career the last four years, continuing to mash into his mid-30s.
The Dodgers likely won’t need their bench as Washington only carries one lefty. Vlashi Buzoku held lefties to a .218 average this year and may be a weapon against the bottom of the Dodgers order. The rest of the Washington pen may include up to eight righty relievers. Omar Lara has been fantastic as a closer, limiting homers and striking out 116 in 64.1 innings, but a 12.64 walk rate could open the door against a team that controls the zone like Los Angeles. Jon Carter may be a key arm for Washington. He’s allowed two homers all year, but walked 34 in 52 innings, while whiffing 76. He may be an arm the Dodgers can wait out for base hits.
Nationals Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
Washington’s offense should be whole for the first time in awhile with oft-injured Alex Bregman returning to the team. Bregman’s played just 57 Games this year but gives Washington a powerful offensive player to a team that’s extremely top heavy. Only three National regulars had an OPS+ above 101. Washington can use the boost.
Bryce Harper is still a nightmare for hitters, but he’s not as inevitable as he was in seasons prior, with a .939 OPS a career low. Bob Beasley has really stepped up as a fantastic hitter to complement Harper as he has 100 doubles the last two seasons, and clubbed 31 homers with 117 RBIs this year. Washington also has Mike Trout, but he’s been incredibly erratic—hitting under .200 for two months, posting a .577 OPS in June, but still rallying for a strong second half. Trout had a .767 OPS that he needed to rally to hit, but he hit just .228 with 26 home runs and 22 doubles. He still walks a ton, but that isn’t as valuable ahead of a weak bottom of the Nationals order. If he steps up and plays like a Hall of Famer, Washington can beat anybody. If he plays like how he’s played most of the season, Washington is very vulnerable.
The bottom of Washington’s order is filled with low-OBP sluggers like Shane Benes and Daniel Flores, who’ll double or homer, but won’t walk.
Washington will steal bases to manufacture offense though as Luis V. Garcia and Victor Robles are second and third in the NL in steals.
Los Angeles will send Joey Wentz to the mound to deal with the Nationals. It will be an interesting chouse with the Nationals having an .801 OPS against lefties and a .733 OPS against righties. Wentz has a solid playoff resume with a 3.84 career ERA in 61 postseason innings. His strikeouts are down a bit and his walks are slightly up, but he suppressed BABIP and homers on the way to an 11-6 record and a 3.15 ERA. Washington is excellent at drawing walks and has a high BABIP, so Wentz may be able to neutralize those strengths. It will all come down to whether he can get Washington’s righties out—and he held righties to a .605 OPS this season.
In the bullpen, the Dodgers have three lefties, but are primarily right-handed. Eric Groves is a specialist who may only be used for Harper, but Travis Tyre and Arturo Pedraza don’t generally have handedness restrictions. Pedroza had neutral splits, though righties hit a bit more homers off him, while Tyre held righties to a .219 average. In fact, Giovanny Gallegos is the only pitcher who allowed higher than a .717 OPS to righties, but that’s an anomaly compared to career norms.
Penguin Robles has held opponents to a career .496 OPS against righties and should be able to dominate Washington’s lineup—except for Harper. Lefties have been able to homer off Robles in his career, and Harper has two homers in four at bats against Penguin. The Dodgers best strategy in the ninth may be to just walk Bam Bam.
The Dodgers defense is terrible on the right side of the infield but spectacular in the outfield. A lefty on the mound and righties at the plate should mitigate the shortcomings and Wentz’ fly ball tendencies will allow the outfield defense to play up. As long as the balls stay in play, Gold Glover Jeren Kendall, Jorge Ramos, and Alex Verdugo should track them down. Plus the battery of Joey Wentz and Hyo-sang Choo is perfectly equipped for shutting down a running game. Los Angeles may be one of the worst opponents for the Nationals offense to face.
Season Series:
The Dodgers won the season series 4-3, splitting a series in LA in May, then winning two of three in Washington over the summer. The split in Los Angeles was very low scoring with the Nats outscoring the Dodgers 13-11. The Dodgers won the first game after falling behind 3-0 in the first. The bullpen pitched 5 hitless innings, Jeren Kendall hit a walkoff homer, and the Dodgers won 4-3.
Washington got the next two behind stellar starting pitching. Luis D. Guzman and Eric Pena combined for 15 innings of one-run ball as Washington won a pair of close games. The Dodgers again came up with late inning magic in the finale though, erasing a 3-0 deficit with a walk and three singles, the last of which was an Eric Robert blooper to short right that brought home two off Jon Carter. Washington got the first two on in the 10th but Penguin Robles got a double play off Bob Beasley to end the threat, and Many Machado hit a walkoff homer in the 10th to end it.
Washington took the first game at home behind stellar pitching. Eric Pena went 6.1 innings, allowing two hits, a walk, no runs, and striking out 13. The Dodgers continued to get good bullpen work the next day to tie the series with Travis Tyre allowing a run in 3 innings of a 5-2 Dodgers win. The finale was the first day an offense broke out with Alex Verdugo collecting four hits and Willie Calhoun homering and driving in four to lead the Dodgers to a 10-5 win.
Deciding Questions:
Can the Dodgers scratch a run off Pena for the first time this year?
Who will win the battle between Joey Wentz and Eric Pena?
Will Hall of Fame Mike Trout or Replacement Level Mike Trout show up?
Prediction: This game will likely be an incredibly low-scoring game. The Nationals will get a couple of runs early, but the Dodgers will come up with a key late homer to advance. Dodgers 3-2.