Post by Commissioner Erick on Mar 9, 2022 16:39:27 GMT -5
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians, after a half-decade in the baseball wilderness, are back in the playoffs for the first time since their 2020 World Series win. To advance to the ALDS, they’ll take on a Detroit Tigers team that has reached the playoffs for the third time in four seasons. Both teams feature good pitching and each has a young generational superstar leading them, making for a very fun matchup.
Indians Hitting vs Tigers Pitching:
There’s some uncertainty regarding who Detroit will start, but the two choices are each lefties, Asa Lacy or Gregory Reinoso. Lacy is the more likely starter and has been acy at times for Detroit with an upper-90s fastball, disappearing forkball, and two curveballs to befuddle hitters. He has fantastic stuff, and has really curbed a home run problem he had early in his career. He’s never had a platoon split and should be able to hold his own in Progressive Field, though his home stats are better than his road ones.
That last point is relevant to Cleveland, as their offense has a .793 home OPS compared to a .706 road OPS. The difference is mostly fueled by a 30-point increase in batting average at home versus the road. Lacy and the Tigers will need to find a way to cut down Cleveland’s ability to get on base.
Cleveland finished sixth in offense, relying on extra base hits to fuel them. The team was 13th in batting average overall, though their Progressive Field average would be a respectable seventh. The team was second in triples and fourth in home runs though, as the club used extra base power to generate offense.
Luis Retana was the main driver of the club. The second-coming of Francisco Lindor, though with a bit more power and less speed, Retana had an MVP-worthy 8.2 WAR season. Bespectacled, and nicknamed four-eyes as a result, the superstar shortstop had 39 doubles, 38 homers and six triples this year, finishing in a tie for sixth in homers and doubles, and a tie for fifth in triples. Just 22 years old, he’s a superstar and looks like an upper-echelon Shortstop on pace for a decade atop the league.
Retana has a pretty good supporting cast atop the lineup. Javier Baez has continued his renaissance with a 26-homer season and an .864 OPS, with Wilson Contreras hitting .285 with 23 bombs. From the left side, Austin Meadows provided a huge boost since coming over from Houston and hit .303 with 39 doubles. Jesus B. Sanchez hit .283 with 30 doubles and Darrick Hall only hit .180 this year, but did slug 34 home runs. With Cleveland’s balanced lineup, while some players struggle against lefties, others thrive, all washing out in the end.
The bottom of Cleveland’s order isn’t dangerous, with Ernesto Adames, Nonnie Williams, and Danny Knock all providing more value with their glove than their bat.
Off the bench, Cleveland has Sean Reynolds, a slugger whose power has dried up since a surprisingly 2025 rookie year, former all-star Kevin Maitan, who also had his best year in 2025, and defense first Jordan Groshans, should Cleveland activate him off the IL for the series.
Detroit only has two lefties in its pen. Hunter Barco is the setup man, but this year was his first year with positive WAR. Pat Huegly is also around, but he’s a long-reliever who shouldn’t be trusted in big moments. That means Detroit will likely lean heavily on a quartet of righties in the middle innings. None of Edubray Ramos, Zach Pop, Phil Maton, or Josh Puthuff is particularly dynamic, but none beat themselves either as they all throw strikes. Puthuff and Maton are more risk/reward as each gives up more home runs but have lower BABIPS, while Ramos and Pop throw strikes, keep the ball in the yard, but sometimes give up a bunch of hits. Maton or Puthuff may be better against the bottom of the order, with Ramos or Pop facing off against Baez and Hall.
Defensively, Detroit was great on the infield corners, which should prevent some doubles and triples, though Second Base was a problem at times. The Tigers reworked their defense towards the end of the season, with the steady Allen Cordoba looking good as the season wound down.
Tigers Hitting vs Indians Pitching:
Detroit was a middle-of-the road offense this year, and is down to really two dangerous hitters thanks to injuries to DeMario Pacheco and Dirty Tarin. Of course, one of those two dangerous hitters may be the best hitter in baseball.
Roderick Dalton burst on the scene last year and showed a special eye while putting up good numbers adjusting his swing to major league pitches. He was expected to improve this year, but he hasn’t just improved, he’s rapidly intensified. He had a .365 average, got on base at a .464 clip, and carried a 1.136 OPS—the best single season average ever, the best OBP since 2017 Harper, and an OPS exceeded only by two Bryce Harper seasons and 2025 Mike Trout. Roderick Dalton is 23 years old.
Cleveland can cope with that existential nightmare by looking at the rest of the expected Tigers lineup. Amari Maggette is a strong force, a .291 hitter who clubbed 40 doubles and 21 home runs. That’s really it for really good hitters for Detroit, and even Maggette has just a .744 OPS on the road.
Only two other Tigers have an OPS+ above 89—Catcher Griffin Helms who only had 340 Plate Appearances, and Second Baseman Daniel Brito, who mostly hit for an empty .289 average. Jacob Pearson and Raj Anu are the only other Tigers outside of Dalton and Maggette with double-digit homers, meaning the team will need to win by hitting singles and doubles. Detroit does have a good average, but it’s propped up by Dalton, and while they are fourth in the league in doubles, again, that number is carried by Maggette and Dalton. Detroit will need Dalton to dominate, Maggette to have a nice day if Dalton is walked, or Detroit’s lighter hitters will need to produce.
The Tigers could really use a staff that beats itself, but they’re likely starter in the game is Jose Quintana. Quintana earned his first All-Star berth this year in his first year back with the team he helped win a championship with in 2020. Quintana doesn’t have great stuff, but he doesn’t give up home runs, and he doesn’t walk hitters. Quintana’s 4.7% walk rate was sixth in the AL this year and his 4.9% career walk rate is 11th among all PBA pitchers with 900+ innings. He won’t walk hitters, meaning he’ll force Detroit’s lesser bats to have to hurt him. Dalton is only 3-12 without a home run off him lifetime, while Maggette is 9-31 (.290) with a pair of home runs. How Quintana fares against Maggette may determine who plays Boston in the ALDS.
Cleveland’s bullpen is largely inexperienced, with the Indians trying some of their underdeveloped superprospects in relief. Chad Simon has worked 31 innings in the PBA this year and looks every bit a former second overall pick, while Ape Montiel looks every bit a 23-year old.
The setup and middle relievers for Cleveland are all right-handed and wild, meaning it will be easy for Detroit to make substitutions, and the team will give Detroit chances. They do limit homers, but it might be possible for Brito and Helms’ decent averages to play up. Chad Kite limited walks, but didn’t strike anyone out and gave up a ton of home runs. This may not be the worst opponent for him to face, but he still had -0.4 WAR. Terrible John Kinser had a decent year, but this was his second season and he had an unremarkable 3.99 ERA, though his FIP was a sterling 2.72.
Cleveland’s defense was outstanding. The entire outfield is exceptional strong, and Retana is spectacular. Walks are terrible, because balls hit in play turn into outs with Cleveland’s defense. Cleveland’s one weak spot may be holding runners, so if Jacob Pearson and Phil Knightner get on base, they may as well run.
Season Series:
Detroit won the season series 10-9.
Detroit’s lineup struggled though as only Maggette, Dalton, and backup Catcher J.T. Realmuto had an OPS above .700 against Cleveland. Dirty Tarin and DeMario Pacheco also hit well against Cleveland—but they won’t be playing today. Quintana had a 1.80 ERA against Detroit in three starts. Chad Kite was excellent with a 1.80 ERA, while the rest of the pen was unremarkable.
Cleveland meanwhile, had hitters that stepped up against Detroit, even though Retana was pretty ordinary with a solid, but not spectacular .764 OPS. Edubray Ramos had a 0.79 ERA versus Cleveland and David Heide fired 6.1 shutout, but every other Tiger reliever had an ERA of 4.91 or higher.
Deciding Questions:
Can Roderick Dalton and Amari Maggette win a playoff game by themselves?
Who will go deeper, allowing their team to avoid a troubling middle relief, Lacy or Quintana?
Will any of Detroit’s other seven hitters step up late?
Prediction: I can’t see Cleveland’s offense breaking out, but I can’t see it being shut down either. There’s enough talent and diversity to get some runs on the board. Detroit is the bigger question. I can see them getting three hit and I can see Maggette and Brito combining for 6 RBIs. There’s a lot of variance there. Ultimately, I see Detroit as the team more likely to fail with men in scoring position or to commit a crucial error in a key spot. Cleveland survives a late rally to hold on. Indians 5-4.
The Cleveland Indians, after a half-decade in the baseball wilderness, are back in the playoffs for the first time since their 2020 World Series win. To advance to the ALDS, they’ll take on a Detroit Tigers team that has reached the playoffs for the third time in four seasons. Both teams feature good pitching and each has a young generational superstar leading them, making for a very fun matchup.
Indians Hitting vs Tigers Pitching:
There’s some uncertainty regarding who Detroit will start, but the two choices are each lefties, Asa Lacy or Gregory Reinoso. Lacy is the more likely starter and has been acy at times for Detroit with an upper-90s fastball, disappearing forkball, and two curveballs to befuddle hitters. He has fantastic stuff, and has really curbed a home run problem he had early in his career. He’s never had a platoon split and should be able to hold his own in Progressive Field, though his home stats are better than his road ones.
That last point is relevant to Cleveland, as their offense has a .793 home OPS compared to a .706 road OPS. The difference is mostly fueled by a 30-point increase in batting average at home versus the road. Lacy and the Tigers will need to find a way to cut down Cleveland’s ability to get on base.
Cleveland finished sixth in offense, relying on extra base hits to fuel them. The team was 13th in batting average overall, though their Progressive Field average would be a respectable seventh. The team was second in triples and fourth in home runs though, as the club used extra base power to generate offense.
Luis Retana was the main driver of the club. The second-coming of Francisco Lindor, though with a bit more power and less speed, Retana had an MVP-worthy 8.2 WAR season. Bespectacled, and nicknamed four-eyes as a result, the superstar shortstop had 39 doubles, 38 homers and six triples this year, finishing in a tie for sixth in homers and doubles, and a tie for fifth in triples. Just 22 years old, he’s a superstar and looks like an upper-echelon Shortstop on pace for a decade atop the league.
Retana has a pretty good supporting cast atop the lineup. Javier Baez has continued his renaissance with a 26-homer season and an .864 OPS, with Wilson Contreras hitting .285 with 23 bombs. From the left side, Austin Meadows provided a huge boost since coming over from Houston and hit .303 with 39 doubles. Jesus B. Sanchez hit .283 with 30 doubles and Darrick Hall only hit .180 this year, but did slug 34 home runs. With Cleveland’s balanced lineup, while some players struggle against lefties, others thrive, all washing out in the end.
The bottom of Cleveland’s order isn’t dangerous, with Ernesto Adames, Nonnie Williams, and Danny Knock all providing more value with their glove than their bat.
Off the bench, Cleveland has Sean Reynolds, a slugger whose power has dried up since a surprisingly 2025 rookie year, former all-star Kevin Maitan, who also had his best year in 2025, and defense first Jordan Groshans, should Cleveland activate him off the IL for the series.
Detroit only has two lefties in its pen. Hunter Barco is the setup man, but this year was his first year with positive WAR. Pat Huegly is also around, but he’s a long-reliever who shouldn’t be trusted in big moments. That means Detroit will likely lean heavily on a quartet of righties in the middle innings. None of Edubray Ramos, Zach Pop, Phil Maton, or Josh Puthuff is particularly dynamic, but none beat themselves either as they all throw strikes. Puthuff and Maton are more risk/reward as each gives up more home runs but have lower BABIPS, while Ramos and Pop throw strikes, keep the ball in the yard, but sometimes give up a bunch of hits. Maton or Puthuff may be better against the bottom of the order, with Ramos or Pop facing off against Baez and Hall.
Defensively, Detroit was great on the infield corners, which should prevent some doubles and triples, though Second Base was a problem at times. The Tigers reworked their defense towards the end of the season, with the steady Allen Cordoba looking good as the season wound down.
Tigers Hitting vs Indians Pitching:
Detroit was a middle-of-the road offense this year, and is down to really two dangerous hitters thanks to injuries to DeMario Pacheco and Dirty Tarin. Of course, one of those two dangerous hitters may be the best hitter in baseball.
Roderick Dalton burst on the scene last year and showed a special eye while putting up good numbers adjusting his swing to major league pitches. He was expected to improve this year, but he hasn’t just improved, he’s rapidly intensified. He had a .365 average, got on base at a .464 clip, and carried a 1.136 OPS—the best single season average ever, the best OBP since 2017 Harper, and an OPS exceeded only by two Bryce Harper seasons and 2025 Mike Trout. Roderick Dalton is 23 years old.
Cleveland can cope with that existential nightmare by looking at the rest of the expected Tigers lineup. Amari Maggette is a strong force, a .291 hitter who clubbed 40 doubles and 21 home runs. That’s really it for really good hitters for Detroit, and even Maggette has just a .744 OPS on the road.
Only two other Tigers have an OPS+ above 89—Catcher Griffin Helms who only had 340 Plate Appearances, and Second Baseman Daniel Brito, who mostly hit for an empty .289 average. Jacob Pearson and Raj Anu are the only other Tigers outside of Dalton and Maggette with double-digit homers, meaning the team will need to win by hitting singles and doubles. Detroit does have a good average, but it’s propped up by Dalton, and while they are fourth in the league in doubles, again, that number is carried by Maggette and Dalton. Detroit will need Dalton to dominate, Maggette to have a nice day if Dalton is walked, or Detroit’s lighter hitters will need to produce.
The Tigers could really use a staff that beats itself, but they’re likely starter in the game is Jose Quintana. Quintana earned his first All-Star berth this year in his first year back with the team he helped win a championship with in 2020. Quintana doesn’t have great stuff, but he doesn’t give up home runs, and he doesn’t walk hitters. Quintana’s 4.7% walk rate was sixth in the AL this year and his 4.9% career walk rate is 11th among all PBA pitchers with 900+ innings. He won’t walk hitters, meaning he’ll force Detroit’s lesser bats to have to hurt him. Dalton is only 3-12 without a home run off him lifetime, while Maggette is 9-31 (.290) with a pair of home runs. How Quintana fares against Maggette may determine who plays Boston in the ALDS.
Cleveland’s bullpen is largely inexperienced, with the Indians trying some of their underdeveloped superprospects in relief. Chad Simon has worked 31 innings in the PBA this year and looks every bit a former second overall pick, while Ape Montiel looks every bit a 23-year old.
The setup and middle relievers for Cleveland are all right-handed and wild, meaning it will be easy for Detroit to make substitutions, and the team will give Detroit chances. They do limit homers, but it might be possible for Brito and Helms’ decent averages to play up. Chad Kite limited walks, but didn’t strike anyone out and gave up a ton of home runs. This may not be the worst opponent for him to face, but he still had -0.4 WAR. Terrible John Kinser had a decent year, but this was his second season and he had an unremarkable 3.99 ERA, though his FIP was a sterling 2.72.
Cleveland’s defense was outstanding. The entire outfield is exceptional strong, and Retana is spectacular. Walks are terrible, because balls hit in play turn into outs with Cleveland’s defense. Cleveland’s one weak spot may be holding runners, so if Jacob Pearson and Phil Knightner get on base, they may as well run.
Season Series:
Detroit won the season series 10-9.
Detroit’s lineup struggled though as only Maggette, Dalton, and backup Catcher J.T. Realmuto had an OPS above .700 against Cleveland. Dirty Tarin and DeMario Pacheco also hit well against Cleveland—but they won’t be playing today. Quintana had a 1.80 ERA against Detroit in three starts. Chad Kite was excellent with a 1.80 ERA, while the rest of the pen was unremarkable.
Cleveland meanwhile, had hitters that stepped up against Detroit, even though Retana was pretty ordinary with a solid, but not spectacular .764 OPS. Edubray Ramos had a 0.79 ERA versus Cleveland and David Heide fired 6.1 shutout, but every other Tiger reliever had an ERA of 4.91 or higher.
Deciding Questions:
Can Roderick Dalton and Amari Maggette win a playoff game by themselves?
Who will go deeper, allowing their team to avoid a troubling middle relief, Lacy or Quintana?
Will any of Detroit’s other seven hitters step up late?
Prediction: I can’t see Cleveland’s offense breaking out, but I can’t see it being shut down either. There’s enough talent and diversity to get some runs on the board. Detroit is the bigger question. I can see them getting three hit and I can see Maggette and Brito combining for 6 RBIs. There’s a lot of variance there. Ultimately, I see Detroit as the team more likely to fail with men in scoring position or to commit a crucial error in a key spot. Cleveland survives a late rally to hold on. Indians 5-4.