Post by Commissioner Erick on Mar 12, 2022 15:52:16 GMT -5
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers got a huge late home run from Griffin Helms to slip past Cleveland and win the Wild Card game. They’ll take on a Boston team that won 101 games in Mike Ball’s return to the playoffs.
Red Sox Offense versus Detroit Pitching
Boston was near the top of virtually every offensive category. They were second in runs, third in home runs, and first in on-base-percentage. Collectively, they don’t strike out, they feature lineup depth, and they have power right in the heart of the lineup.
Jake Sanfilippo, Bryan Martelo, and Joe Taylor each hit 35 or 36 home runs and drove in between 113 and 117 RBIs. Taylor, in particular, was sensational. A former fourth overall pick, the former Southern graduate hit .303 with 54 doubles and 16 steals. Only Kansas City’s Jorge Vargas had more doubles.
Setting up the power heart of the lineup, Adam Haseley had a .381 on-base percentage, with 35 doubles and 18 home runs. Signed to a bargain contract, he’s been a steal for Boston after being a bench player for the Orioles in 2025. Andres Giminez leads off, and while not as dynamic as the stars below him, he continued Boston’s trend of solid on-base guys who crack doubles, with a .353 OBP and 32 doubles of his own.
An important note about the top five guys in the Boston lineup is that none have severe platoon splits. In fact, Bryan Martelo has reverse platoon splits. If a team wants to load up on lefties to combat three of Boston’s first four hitters being left-handed, the Red Sox have handled that approach well this year.
The bottom of Boston’s lineup is solid, but a little more vulnerable. Willi Castro is having a huge year at Second Base, but in a very small sample after a lost 2026. Castro’s always been able to club doubles and triples, but his .356 average is the highest of his career by 68 points.
Chris Berson hit .320 last year, but is just .260 this year. Keibert Ruiz has just a .600 OPS. Arturo Reineri is the one impact power outside the heart of the order, but he has major platoon splits, hitting about as many home runs against lefties as righties, despite half the at bats.
Boston’s bench can mix and match though. Ulysses Cantu has always had a good average and he had a .500 slugging mark this year. Oswald Peraza can hit lefties well, and Luis Villareal is a major power hitter who would have more of a role if his defense were better.
It will take special pitching to handle Boston’s lineup, and Detroit may not quite have enough of it. They’ll go with Gregory Reinoso, Luis Morales, Carlos Martinez, and Asa Lacy, which means almost four different approaches.
Reinoso throws strikes and has a great walk rate. That’s a good first step against a patient team like Boston, but It will be important to see if the Red Sox get into some of his pitches and get a bunch of doubles. Asa Lacy was strong against Cleveland in the Wild Card Game, and he was strong against Texas in the 2025 ALDS. He has big stuff and a big pedigree.
Luis Morales struck out just 47 hitters in 96.2 innings. He keeps the ball in the park, but relied heavily on a .244 BABIP. The rookie—who was once traded by Mike Ball—will have a chance at a revenge series, but may not be developed enough to handle Boston at this point in his career. He’ll need to rely on his defense a huge amount this series. Dog Morales did make his third career start against Boston and allowed just one run in 7.1 innings, so he has had success in the past.
Meanwhile, the juiciest subplot of the series will be Carlos Martinez squaring off against his former manager in Mike Ball. Martinez’ best years came in Chicago, and injuries have held him back somewhat in Detroit after a stellar 2024. Martinez’ strikeout rate continues to decline, but he still bests hitters by dancing the ball away from the middle of the plate. He allowed only 10 home runs this year, turned in the third best walk rate of his hall-of-fame career, and has pitched very well down the stretch. He has the ability to turn the tide of the series.
Detroit’s bullpen was really good against Cleveland and will need more of the same this series. David Heide should be able to lock up the late innings as one of the best relievers in baseball. Detroit may be best served by pitchers who limit baserunners. Phil Maton, Josh Puthuff, and Hunter Barco all have low WHIPs, while Zach Pop may be a question mark.
Defensively, Detroit was great on the infield corners, which will help against a high-doubles team like Boston. Their up-the-middle infield defense may not be great, and they have a rookie, Luis Zapien, who debuted in the playoffs in Center Field. Zapien has good Triple-A stats and may be more of an asset defensively than Jacob Pearson, who moved to DH.
Tigers Offense versus Red Sox Pitching
Boston arguably has its three best starters hurt for this series with Marcus Stroman, Derrick Heins, and Pat Strand out for the series. Sergio Murillo, Andy DeShaw, and Pete Daley will be the three arms Boston will roll with.
Murillo was terrible in the regular season for Houston last year, and was terrible in the regular season for Houston this year. However, he was a playoff hero for the Astros’ ALCS run in 2026, and looked good for Boston in his 10 starts with the club. Murillo has a huge fastball and slider, but he’s still learning how to pitch. The strikeout rate increased in Boston and the BABIP did too. If he puts things together, he can be electric, but there’s a ton of variance in how he’ll perform.
Andy DeShaw is somewhat similar to Murillo in that he’s a huge arm with a big fastball, who’ll sometimes give up home runs. The difference is that DeShaw has two excellent offspeed pitches and not just one, and that he’s a little more experienced and therefore knows more about the craft of pitching. There’s still concern with him though, as his worst starts have tended to come against the better offenses in the league. He gave up five runs and nine hits to Detroit earlier this year.
Pete Daley is a different pitcher than Murrillo and DeShaw. He keeps the ball on the ground, doesn’t yield home runs, but is a much more wild pitcher. As the Tigers are a generally weaker offense, giving up walks may be a big problem.
Boston’s bullpen has one lefty, a homer-prone youngster in Luis Espinosa, who may not be strong enough to face Roderick Dalton so may be relegated to facing Detroit’s lesser lefties. The rest of the Boston pen is fantastic.
Steve Hartman led the AL in Saves last year and is even better this year. He still carries a 27% strikeout rate, while his walk and home run rates have cratered. He has 39 Saves, eight wins, and a 2.69 ERA in 73.2 innings. Bobby Mendez and Juan Alaniz are huge strikeout artists. Mendez fanned 85 in 66.2 innings, while Alaniz whiffed 102 in 70.2. Mendez has a high walk rate, which could be concerning against a Detroit team that was fourth best in strikeout rate.
Joe Seale will be the main middle-inning arm. He started much of the year and had a great home run rate, plus he throws strikes. His strikeout rate should increase in the pen. Kevin Sexton will also get the middle innings. He has two years now of demonstrated success with limiting home runs and striking out hitters, and his walk rate improved this year. Nobody in the pen has a crazy platoon split where lefties hit way better—in fact, some pitchers have stark splits where righties hit better. Some of that may be noise, but Boston gets away with having only one lefty because their righties get lefties out.
Detroit’s offense showed they could win a big game without Dalton playing well, as they scored five runs in the Wild Card Game. Detroit got two hits apiece from lefties or switch hitters Jacob Pearson, Danel Brito, and Raj Anu.
That’s been their blueprint this year. Either Roderick Dalton does everything, Dalton gets on base and Maggette drives him in, or the team gets enough singles to win by BABIP.
Detroit is very good at avoiding strikeouts, an asset against a Boston team of flamethrowers. It’s a tough way to make a living against a really good staff, but it may throw off how Boston wants to win. If Boston wants to challenge Dalton, which they did in April, Dalton can single-handedly destroy them. Players like Brito and Maggette may be the key. If Dalton is pitched around, those two will have opportunities to drive in runs. Whether they cash in will determine how effective Detroit’s offense is.
Boston’s defense is pretty bad. The team’s collective zone rating is propped up by Arturo Reineri’s Second Base numbers, but he’s moved to Center Field with Juan Inzunza out. Outside of Second Base and Keibert Ruiz, there isn’t really a player in the field one would consider a plus defender.
Season Series:
Detroit won the season series 4-3, splitting four games in Fenway Park in April, then capturing two of three in Comerica right before the All-Star break. Detroit won the first game 6-4, with Roderick Dalton doubling, homering, and driving in four. Boston won the next two, battering Detroit’s pen in a 7-3 comeback win and handling Acy Lacy in a 7-4 win the next day. Detroit won the finale with the Tigers beating up Stroman early. Dalton went 2-4 with a double, capping off an 11-14 series with three doubles, a homer, three walks, no strikeouts, and eight RBIs.
In Detroit, Stroman started off the series by getting his revenge and going 8 innings, allowing two hits. Taylor homered off Reinoso in the contest. Murillo was hurt early in the middle match, and got an Amari Maggette three run home run as Detroit handled Boston’s bullpen and won 5-4. They captured the finale and the season series with a 5-3 win as Morales worked around seven hits to allow just one run. Maggette homered again Dalton had two hits.
Deciding Questions:
Can Brito and Maggette step up for Detroit?
Who will win the starting pitching battles—Boston or Detroit?
Will Detroit’s ability to make contact—and put pressure on Boston’s underwhelming defense—allow Detroit’s offense to play up?
Prediction: If Boston’s starters were healthy, I may have predicted a sweep, but the Tigers are well suited to take away what Boston does well, and they have maybe the best starter, closer, and hitter in the series. In the end, I don’t think Detroit has the talent to really punish this version of the Red Sox though. Red Sox 4-2.
The Detroit Tigers got a huge late home run from Griffin Helms to slip past Cleveland and win the Wild Card game. They’ll take on a Boston team that won 101 games in Mike Ball’s return to the playoffs.
Red Sox Offense versus Detroit Pitching
Boston was near the top of virtually every offensive category. They were second in runs, third in home runs, and first in on-base-percentage. Collectively, they don’t strike out, they feature lineup depth, and they have power right in the heart of the lineup.
Jake Sanfilippo, Bryan Martelo, and Joe Taylor each hit 35 or 36 home runs and drove in between 113 and 117 RBIs. Taylor, in particular, was sensational. A former fourth overall pick, the former Southern graduate hit .303 with 54 doubles and 16 steals. Only Kansas City’s Jorge Vargas had more doubles.
Setting up the power heart of the lineup, Adam Haseley had a .381 on-base percentage, with 35 doubles and 18 home runs. Signed to a bargain contract, he’s been a steal for Boston after being a bench player for the Orioles in 2025. Andres Giminez leads off, and while not as dynamic as the stars below him, he continued Boston’s trend of solid on-base guys who crack doubles, with a .353 OBP and 32 doubles of his own.
An important note about the top five guys in the Boston lineup is that none have severe platoon splits. In fact, Bryan Martelo has reverse platoon splits. If a team wants to load up on lefties to combat three of Boston’s first four hitters being left-handed, the Red Sox have handled that approach well this year.
The bottom of Boston’s lineup is solid, but a little more vulnerable. Willi Castro is having a huge year at Second Base, but in a very small sample after a lost 2026. Castro’s always been able to club doubles and triples, but his .356 average is the highest of his career by 68 points.
Chris Berson hit .320 last year, but is just .260 this year. Keibert Ruiz has just a .600 OPS. Arturo Reineri is the one impact power outside the heart of the order, but he has major platoon splits, hitting about as many home runs against lefties as righties, despite half the at bats.
Boston’s bench can mix and match though. Ulysses Cantu has always had a good average and he had a .500 slugging mark this year. Oswald Peraza can hit lefties well, and Luis Villareal is a major power hitter who would have more of a role if his defense were better.
It will take special pitching to handle Boston’s lineup, and Detroit may not quite have enough of it. They’ll go with Gregory Reinoso, Luis Morales, Carlos Martinez, and Asa Lacy, which means almost four different approaches.
Reinoso throws strikes and has a great walk rate. That’s a good first step against a patient team like Boston, but It will be important to see if the Red Sox get into some of his pitches and get a bunch of doubles. Asa Lacy was strong against Cleveland in the Wild Card Game, and he was strong against Texas in the 2025 ALDS. He has big stuff and a big pedigree.
Luis Morales struck out just 47 hitters in 96.2 innings. He keeps the ball in the park, but relied heavily on a .244 BABIP. The rookie—who was once traded by Mike Ball—will have a chance at a revenge series, but may not be developed enough to handle Boston at this point in his career. He’ll need to rely on his defense a huge amount this series. Dog Morales did make his third career start against Boston and allowed just one run in 7.1 innings, so he has had success in the past.
Meanwhile, the juiciest subplot of the series will be Carlos Martinez squaring off against his former manager in Mike Ball. Martinez’ best years came in Chicago, and injuries have held him back somewhat in Detroit after a stellar 2024. Martinez’ strikeout rate continues to decline, but he still bests hitters by dancing the ball away from the middle of the plate. He allowed only 10 home runs this year, turned in the third best walk rate of his hall-of-fame career, and has pitched very well down the stretch. He has the ability to turn the tide of the series.
Detroit’s bullpen was really good against Cleveland and will need more of the same this series. David Heide should be able to lock up the late innings as one of the best relievers in baseball. Detroit may be best served by pitchers who limit baserunners. Phil Maton, Josh Puthuff, and Hunter Barco all have low WHIPs, while Zach Pop may be a question mark.
Defensively, Detroit was great on the infield corners, which will help against a high-doubles team like Boston. Their up-the-middle infield defense may not be great, and they have a rookie, Luis Zapien, who debuted in the playoffs in Center Field. Zapien has good Triple-A stats and may be more of an asset defensively than Jacob Pearson, who moved to DH.
Tigers Offense versus Red Sox Pitching
Boston arguably has its three best starters hurt for this series with Marcus Stroman, Derrick Heins, and Pat Strand out for the series. Sergio Murillo, Andy DeShaw, and Pete Daley will be the three arms Boston will roll with.
Murillo was terrible in the regular season for Houston last year, and was terrible in the regular season for Houston this year. However, he was a playoff hero for the Astros’ ALCS run in 2026, and looked good for Boston in his 10 starts with the club. Murillo has a huge fastball and slider, but he’s still learning how to pitch. The strikeout rate increased in Boston and the BABIP did too. If he puts things together, he can be electric, but there’s a ton of variance in how he’ll perform.
Andy DeShaw is somewhat similar to Murillo in that he’s a huge arm with a big fastball, who’ll sometimes give up home runs. The difference is that DeShaw has two excellent offspeed pitches and not just one, and that he’s a little more experienced and therefore knows more about the craft of pitching. There’s still concern with him though, as his worst starts have tended to come against the better offenses in the league. He gave up five runs and nine hits to Detroit earlier this year.
Pete Daley is a different pitcher than Murrillo and DeShaw. He keeps the ball on the ground, doesn’t yield home runs, but is a much more wild pitcher. As the Tigers are a generally weaker offense, giving up walks may be a big problem.
Boston’s bullpen has one lefty, a homer-prone youngster in Luis Espinosa, who may not be strong enough to face Roderick Dalton so may be relegated to facing Detroit’s lesser lefties. The rest of the Boston pen is fantastic.
Steve Hartman led the AL in Saves last year and is even better this year. He still carries a 27% strikeout rate, while his walk and home run rates have cratered. He has 39 Saves, eight wins, and a 2.69 ERA in 73.2 innings. Bobby Mendez and Juan Alaniz are huge strikeout artists. Mendez fanned 85 in 66.2 innings, while Alaniz whiffed 102 in 70.2. Mendez has a high walk rate, which could be concerning against a Detroit team that was fourth best in strikeout rate.
Joe Seale will be the main middle-inning arm. He started much of the year and had a great home run rate, plus he throws strikes. His strikeout rate should increase in the pen. Kevin Sexton will also get the middle innings. He has two years now of demonstrated success with limiting home runs and striking out hitters, and his walk rate improved this year. Nobody in the pen has a crazy platoon split where lefties hit way better—in fact, some pitchers have stark splits where righties hit better. Some of that may be noise, but Boston gets away with having only one lefty because their righties get lefties out.
Detroit’s offense showed they could win a big game without Dalton playing well, as they scored five runs in the Wild Card Game. Detroit got two hits apiece from lefties or switch hitters Jacob Pearson, Danel Brito, and Raj Anu.
That’s been their blueprint this year. Either Roderick Dalton does everything, Dalton gets on base and Maggette drives him in, or the team gets enough singles to win by BABIP.
Detroit is very good at avoiding strikeouts, an asset against a Boston team of flamethrowers. It’s a tough way to make a living against a really good staff, but it may throw off how Boston wants to win. If Boston wants to challenge Dalton, which they did in April, Dalton can single-handedly destroy them. Players like Brito and Maggette may be the key. If Dalton is pitched around, those two will have opportunities to drive in runs. Whether they cash in will determine how effective Detroit’s offense is.
Boston’s defense is pretty bad. The team’s collective zone rating is propped up by Arturo Reineri’s Second Base numbers, but he’s moved to Center Field with Juan Inzunza out. Outside of Second Base and Keibert Ruiz, there isn’t really a player in the field one would consider a plus defender.
Season Series:
Detroit won the season series 4-3, splitting four games in Fenway Park in April, then capturing two of three in Comerica right before the All-Star break. Detroit won the first game 6-4, with Roderick Dalton doubling, homering, and driving in four. Boston won the next two, battering Detroit’s pen in a 7-3 comeback win and handling Acy Lacy in a 7-4 win the next day. Detroit won the finale with the Tigers beating up Stroman early. Dalton went 2-4 with a double, capping off an 11-14 series with three doubles, a homer, three walks, no strikeouts, and eight RBIs.
In Detroit, Stroman started off the series by getting his revenge and going 8 innings, allowing two hits. Taylor homered off Reinoso in the contest. Murillo was hurt early in the middle match, and got an Amari Maggette three run home run as Detroit handled Boston’s bullpen and won 5-4. They captured the finale and the season series with a 5-3 win as Morales worked around seven hits to allow just one run. Maggette homered again Dalton had two hits.
Deciding Questions:
Can Brito and Maggette step up for Detroit?
Who will win the starting pitching battles—Boston or Detroit?
Will Detroit’s ability to make contact—and put pressure on Boston’s underwhelming defense—allow Detroit’s offense to play up?
Prediction: If Boston’s starters were healthy, I may have predicted a sweep, but the Tigers are well suited to take away what Boston does well, and they have maybe the best starter, closer, and hitter in the series. In the end, I don’t think Detroit has the talent to really punish this version of the Red Sox though. Red Sox 4-2.