2027 ALDS Preview: Mariners vs Royals

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Seattle Mariners (98-64) vs Kansas City Royals (94-68)

The Mariners won one more game than last year, and the Royals one less but the net result is the same. Both teams are right back in the mix in the AL. The Mariners were in control of the AL West throughout much of the season and handily won their division by 14 games. The Royals however had to close a 2.5 game deficit over the final week of the season to win the AL Central for a 2nd consecutive year, but only by a single game. Both teams are very good at preventing runs so this should be a low scoring series.

Lineups

Mariners:

The Mariners didn't get any true superstar performances from their hitters this season, but they didn't have many weak performances either. Most of their lineup ranged from around 100 to 115 OPS+, en route to the 8th best OPS in the American League. One issue this lineup has is power. Only 3 players reached the 20 homer mark and the club placed 10th in the AL in home runs. That may be a problem playing against a Royals staff that suppresses the long ball. On the other hand Seattle just does not strikeout. They struck out only 1072 times all season and the Royals pitchers are not strikeout artists. Expect a lot of balls in play.

The 3 big names to watch in this Mariners lineup are those 3 players who reached that 20 homer mark, Lourdes Gurriel, Wilmer Flores, and Ivan Johnson. Gurriel is 33 years old but is still producing, he was named to the all star team this year. His 113 OPS+ was a career low but he still turned in yet another 20 double 20 home run season. Gurriel is eager to make up for his poor performance in last year's AL WC game. Seattle also got fantastic production from another older player. Everyone's favorite player Wilmer Flores had 24 homers and 100 RBI at the age of 36. The last player to keep an eye on is 2B Ivan Johnson. It has taken Johnson sometime to reach what scouts projected, but at 28 he just turned in the best season of his career, He was 4 stolen bases shy of a 20/20/20 year. Johnson struggles with LHP but Gurriel and Flores are absolute lefty killers so Seattle should feel comfortable about their big three up against either handedness.

Royals:

Jorge Vargas. Alright time for the next section. In all seriousness the Royals have a very solid lineup besides Vargas, he is always going to be the first guy who merits discussion. The 23 year old put up his 2nd consecutive 6+ WAR campaign out the DH spot. He has 101 career home runs already in only 336 career games. Vargas led the AL in PA, RBI and EBH for a second consecutive year. He slashed at a 3/4/6 mark with a 308/416/614 slash line. Vargas slugged 750 against the Mariners this year so Seattle pitchers better get ready. Along with Roderick Dalton, Jorge Vargas may just be the best pure hitter in the game today. Besides Vargas, Jonathan Bakos is another big name to watch out for. On draft day in 2022 he was accidentally selected by the Royals, after their scouts failed to look into signability concerns. Thankfully the team was able to get him to sign and he has had a breakout year with 66 EBH in only 410 PA. A strained forearm earlier in the season may have cost him rookie of the year, but he is healthy now and ready to provide right handed thump behind Vargas.

The Royals lineup as a whole is built around plate discipline. Their 607 walks led the AL, and their 1078 strikeouts were the 2nd fewest, with only the Mariners ahead of them. They command the strike zone by providing tough outs for opposing pitchers. The club finished 3rd in wOBA in the AL as a result.

Advantage: Royals, both of these teams have solid lineups but I'll take the team with the better plate discipline and Jorge Vargas.

Defenses

Mariners:

Seattle had the best defense in all of the PBA, which was a nasty combination with their park and pitching. The team had a +50 ZR. Only 3B produced a negative ZR for the Mariners. Lucius Fox and Ivan Johnson combined for a +18 ZR up the middle. Geoff Luke couldn't hit but was still replacement level with his 52 OPS+ thanks to his CF defense. Last season OF defense was a concern for the Mariners but the team has more than addressed that this year. If you get on base against Seattle, you've earned it.

Royals:

Kansas City was also a top 5 PBA team by ZR finishing with a +29 mark. Josh Lowe and JP Crawford weren't the fantastic IF defenders they used to be but more playing time for Joey Young and the addition of Harland Guenette from the Reds made up for it. Quentin Holmes, a man who once won a gold glove over Jeren Kendall, had another strong year in CF.

Advantage: Mariners, but the Royals are very solid too. Runs are going to be at a premium.


Pitching

Mariners:

Every SP the Mariners will send out this series was once a member of the Royals organization. They have elected to go with a 3 man rotation of Tomito Kawamoto, Jeifry Nunez and Damian Mendoza. Another former Royal, Woo-seok Ko has moved from the rotation to the bullpen and will be Seattle's closer for this series. Seattle was hit hard with the career ending injury to ace Tomoyuki Sugano early in the season, but were able to recover thanks to the aforementioned arms. Kawamoto is the ace of the staff, the righthander throws a cutter, changeup and forkball combination to keep the ball on the ground and into the gloves of Fox and Johnson. He also won't walk anyone either, having finished with a 2.2 BB/9. He's arguable the best SP for either team in this series.

Along with their starters Seattle carries two very capable setup men in Anyelo Luna and Michael Lorenzen. However Seattle only has 2 left handed arms in the pen and only Ricardo Silva is someone the Royals should worry about. The Royals lineup is mostly left handed so this might be a problem for the Mariners.

Royals:

The Royals finished 11th in the AL in strikeouts but 4th in ERA. They also walked the least batters in the AL and allowed the 2nd fewest home runs. It's been the formula for the team for awhile now and it works. Tyler Alexander an 18 game winner and arguably the staff ace is a microcosm of the Royals staff as a whole. He allowed less than 1 HR per nine, walked 1 per nine, and struck out only 6.5 per nine. Alexander had the most quality starts of any pitcher in the AL. He might not have the overwhelming stuff that other pitchers in the playoffs possess, but he has his own very effective style. The best pitcher along with Tyler was another lefty. Taylor Lehman came over from the Rays midseason and was a great add for the Royals. If the lefty law firm of Lehman and Alexander can have a good series, then the Mariners may have a court date scheduled.

The Royals backend of the pen might be the strongest aspect of the team's pitching staff. Joe Shilts and Addison Reed finished 1st and 2nd in shutdowns and 1st and 2nd in holds respectively across the AL. If the Royals get the lead and give them the ball they should be able to close out the game, unless the Royals bot mistakes the Mariners for the Blue Jays. The middle innings/long relief are where it may get dicey for the Royals as many of their pitchers for these situations have ERA's over 4.

Advantage: Slight edge to the Mariners. The Mariners finished with a 3.87 ERA as a staff compared to the Royals 4.08. The main difference being the Mariners had a better bullpen.

Key Questions:

If Jorge Vargas gets hot do the Mariners have anyone capable of slowing him down?

Can the middle part of the Royals pen outperform their regular season numbers?

Will anyone be able to score with such spacious parks and great defenses?

Prediction: The Royals took the regular season series 4-3 and I think we're in for a repeat of that here. It will be a very low scoring series but in the end the Royals better lineup will give them the edge needed to win more 1 run games. Royals in 7.