Post by Commissioner Erick on Mar 13, 2022 14:00:52 GMT -5
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals
The Milwaukee Brewers were a regular season titan for the third straight season, winning 119 games, most in history. Furthermore, their bitter postseason rivals, the three-time NL Champion and two-time World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers were ousted in the Wild Card round. With the National League field opening up to them, they’ll have to contend with the rare club that has the upper-echelon talent to challenge them. Milwaukee’s juggernaut facing off against Eric Pena and Bryce Harper should make for a thrilling NLDS.
Brewers Hitting versus Nationals Pitching:
Milwaukee’s offense has been outstanding against righties during its recent ascent with some weaknesses against lefties that reared up in the postseason. They appeared to have solved that weakness this season as their OPS against righties and lefties are more similar than they’ve been in the past. It’s given them much more balance—and won’t matter a bit against a Nationals team with 11 of its 13 pitchers right-handed.
Milwaukee does have a better OPS against righties this year than last, a product of Mike Perches being healthy for a full season. Perches picked up where he left off in 2025 before a gruesome fractured knee robbed him of most of 2026. The home runs were down from 48 to 30, but a decreases run environment has contributed to that. Perches upped his double count from 20 to 43, and hit .318 this year. He’s a superstar who may be the best offensive player in the series.
Perches is surrounded by superstars in the lineup but superstars with playoff questions. Nick Rollins won’t have the playing time to challenge for a loaded rookie of the year crop—but he looks like a stud. In 151 Plate Appearances, he hit .309 with a .583 slugging. Rodolfo Rivera hit 37 home runs, walked more than he struck out, and should have been an All-Star this year. However, Rollins isn’t playoff tested, and struggled in the Double-A playoffs last year. Meanwhile, Rivera was one of the goats of last year’s postseason, going 2-24 in the postseason.
Will Dulihanty was great last year, but struggled mightily this season before three home runs in Cincinnati and Colorado the final week of the year made his numbers look respectable. Matt Aceto had a career low in all his rate stats, a career high number of strikeouts, and had a .606 OPS last postseason.
This isn’t to say that those hitters aren’t dangerous or that the Brewers don’t have, on paper, a powerhouse lineup. It’s just that they aren’t infallible despite providing the firepower for a 119-win club. The loss of Luis Rivera, a hitter who put up a .912 OPS this year, with 34 doubles and 24 home runs in 512 Plate Appearances, necessitates Dulihanty being in the lineup, and the team having more questions than it needs.
However, while there are questions, Aceto is a former All-Star, Rivera is a former Platinum Stick winner, and Greg Jacks is the reigning MVP. The bottom of Milwaukee’s lineup is also pretty strong, with Noah Campbell hitting over .300, Zach Prajzner getting on base at a .343 clip, and Elih Marrero cracking 18 doubles. Steve Mulvey hit .303 against lefties and is an asset on their bench. Tim Elmore had an .802 OPS against lefties and is on their bench. They can pinch hit for someone against Viashi Buzoku and then sub out for Quadir Murriel, who hits lefties and is a great defender. There’s a lot to like.
There’s also a lot to dislike with the Washington staff. Eric Pena pitched in the Wild Card Game and most likely will only go twice this series, meaning Washington will need outstanding work from Peter Solomon, Joe Ross, and Luis D. Guzman. Solomon battled arm woes on the way to a decent, but underwhelming year, while Ross had an ERA of 6.32. Guzman had a 5.31 ERA and struck out just 16% of hitters.
The starters also have a spotty playoff history. Ross has been knocked off before the fifth inning and has an ERA of 9.64 or higher in each of his playoff starts in 2019, 2020, 2023, and 2025, despite being one of the best arms during the club’s 2021 title. Even with a 3-0, 1.86 mark in the 2021 postseason, Ross has a career 6.88 postseason ERA. Guzman has never started a playoff game and has a 5.40 career playoff mark of his own. Solomon has a long, mixed track record, but is 2-5 with a 4.84 mark lifetime in seasons where he was a much better arm.
The only reliable arm is Eric Pena, a pitcher with the nuclear arsenal to liquefy even Milwaukee’s bats. He likely won’t be seen until Game 3 at the earliest though, giving Milwaukee a chance to have a similar NLDS trajectory to last year, where they were shut down by Mehki Lias, but had no trouble with the rest of the Giants on the way to a five-game series win.
Washington’s pen may be the best in their history. It was middle of the pack, but the good arms were very good. Omar Lara is wild, but he finally stopped allowing homers and fanned 116 hitters in 64.1 innings. He has the elite stuff needed to combat Milwaukee. Jon Carter is a similar profile, though the stuff isn’t quite as good. Carter gets great downward plane on his pitches and has been fantastic at limiting homers the last three years. He never gives into hitters though, resulting in a ton of free passes and a ton of strikeouts. The upside will likely be needed to have a chance against Milwaukee, despite the disaster potential.
Boyd Vander Kooi dealt with shoulder injuries this year, but had a solid 3.43 ERA without a homer allowed in the 21 innings he pitched. Kooi—stop if you see the pattern—keeps the ball in the park, has a fantastic strikeout rate, and will give up walks.
Health Fillmeyer, a 33-year-old who flamed out with the Orioles and bounced around the minor league wilderness, reappeared this year to prevent homers, strikeout a fair number of hitters, and give up a ton of walks. Melvin Adon struck out nearly a batter an inning, and had a HR/9 of less than 1.0. He also walked 29 in 48.1 innings.
Devin Arminger may be the one arm who deviates from the Nationals pattern. His strikeout rate is fine, but he’ll pitch in the zone more, limiting walks, but giving him home runs as the tradeoff. He was a hero of the Wild Card Game, and allowed only three of 21 inherited runners to score. He may be an option if Washington needs a double play.
Washington’s defense somehow was second worst at turning double plays, despite numerous opportunities for its fielders with all the free passes surrendered. Washington played solid infield defense, but was awful in the outfield. The Nationals will need the strikeouts to prevent all the doubles Milwaukee should hit if it makes good contact.
Daniel Flores is excellent at preventing steals and Washington’s arms hold runners on well, though the Brewers are a good base-stealing team. Who wins that matchup will be fascinating.
Nationals Hitting versus Brewers Pitching
Milwaukee’s starting pitching is utterly spectacular. Mike Arnold was the 2026 Cy Young Award winner. He won 16 games with a 2.47 ERA and 0.90 WHIP that both led the league. He struck out 301 players and would have led the league if not for Eric Pena’s existence. He someone improved his ERA this year to 2.00 with 219 strikeouts in 152.2 innings.
Among hitters who qualified for the ERA title, Branden Andexler led the league in ERA with a 2.14 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He went 21-3 and is now a Cy Young candidate.
When The Heater From St. Peters wasn’t getting hit by a train, he was making hitters wish they were. Tim Kierstead had the best ERA of his career at 2.51, allowed just 10 homers, and had an amazing 78 strikeouts to 11 walks at home.
There’s no need to go too far in depth to discuss the pitchers, other than that they’re each worthy of any superlative you can throw at them. Deep dives don’t reveal strategies to score against them, just further levels of excellence. For example, Mike Arnold allowed hitters to hit for a .464 OPS in Miller Park. In the first three innings of the game, batters had a .504 OPS against Scruffy Andexler. Tim Kierstead allowed hitters to hit for a .361 OPS after the sixth inning.
It will be extremely difficult for Washington to hit that trio at all. It won’t be impossible. Bryce Harper can hold his own against the game’s best, and Mike Trout had success against the trio in the regular season. The default assumption should be that a team won’t be lighting up the scoreboard though.
The Nationals might have more of a chance against the Brewers’ number four, Holden Christian, but it’s relative. Christian had an outstanding walk rate and allowed 0.9 HR/9 this year, leading to 4.4 WAR. He doesn’t have the best stuff, but it may play up against a Washington that struck out at a higher rate than any other NL team, and the Brewers have the defense to keep Washington from going crazy on balls-in-play.
Milwaukee’s bullpen is elite. It goes nine deep with four righties, five lefties, and a lot of talent. Seven had ERAs in the 2s. A couple had ERAs in the 3. The pair with ERA in the 3s, Blayne Enlow, and Mike Gaylord, still combined for 3.1 WAR. Enlow, Gaylord, and Warf are the only three members who allowed more than a home run every nine innings, so the Nationals will likely need to work for their comebacks.
Milwaukee had the third best zone rating in the league and the fewest errors, so they won’t hurt themselves in the field. They’re particularly good up the middle with Jacks in Center, Prajzner at Shortstop, and Noah Campbell at Second Base. If they do some pinch hitting, Murriel comes off the bench as a strong defender at Second Base. If Washington wants to run, which they like to do, Elih Marrero gunned down nearly 40% of baserunners.
Season Series:
The two teams split the season series, with Milwaukee taking a home series in May, and Washington winning at home in August. Only twice did a team score more than five runs, but only once did a team score fewer than three.
Washington got great bullpen work on May 10th to win 4-3 in 14 innings. Their bullpen worked 8.2 shutout frames, lasting long enough for Clint Coulter to hit a solo blast off Enlow in the 14th. Milwaukee got runners on the corners in the bottom of the inning with two outs, but Luis Rivera’s liner was snagged on a nice running catch by Harper to secure the win. Mike Trout homered and doubled.
Milwaukee won the next two games 5-3 and 7-3. Washington got six runs, but only had 11 hits and four walks combined. They really made the most of their baserunners as Arnold and Andexler struck out a combined 24 Nationals. Mike Perches had a pinch hit 3-run homer to give the Brewers the win in the middle game, and Matt Aceto homered and drove in four in the finale.
Milwaukee scored two in the top of the tenth—but Washington scored three in the bottom of the frame to win the first game in Washington 6-5. Rodolofo Rivera had the big homer to give the Brewers the lead, but Harper had a big double in the bottom of the frame, and Clint Coulter—hero of the Wild Card Game—drew a bases loaded walk to literally walk off with a win.
Milwaukee got a measure of revenge the next day with a three-run rally in the eighth to edge Washington 5-4. Perches got on base three times, Gaylord worked 3.1 perfect innings, and Harper was hurt in the first inning. Washington won the series the next day when Hawkeye was hurt in the first and the Brewers ran into an Eric Pena gem. A rare Brewers error by Campbell helped the Nats scratch across four runs, while Pena, Carter, and Lara worked a one-hitter to win 4-1.
Deciding Questions:
Can Washington’s starters outside of Pena hang in long enough to give the Nationals bullpen a chance?
Can the Brewers put aside past playoff failures or are do their hitters shrink in key games?
Which Mike Trout will show up? Milwaukee has a Hall-of-Fame pitching staff. It might take Hall-of-Fame offensive performances to beat it, something Trout has been in the past, but not this season.
Prediction: Washington will win a game it should (Pena outdueling Christian or one of the Brewers’ aces) and a game it shouldn’t (scoring five runs on five hits), but it will also get blown out in most of their losses. Milwaukee is simply a class above Washington. Brewers 4-2.
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves had a strange year, with new management, administrative dysfunction, career-ending injuries to key pitchers, and operating in a strong NL East working against them. They still found a way to tie for their most wins in franchise history, capturing the NL East for the first time. They’ll take on a Giants team that peaked in September and is playing outstanding baseball. Injuries and defections have resulted in the staff not being as strong as years past, but this edition is easily the best offense in Giants history.
Giants Hitting versus Braves Pitching:
San Francisco was third in offense despite playing in an extreme run prevention park. They were third in home OPS, behind only the Coors-aided Rockies, and the Beer-aided Phillies, managing to find ways to make their offense work despite the environment.
Past elite Giants teams relied on contact, speed, and small ball. This San Francisco team isn’t your—father’s San Francisco Giants? Older brother’s? The PBA is only 11 years old after all. Either way, it’s a stark difference than how the Giants of the late teens or mid 20s operate. Kelyn Klattenburger gives the Giants the offensive monster they’ve never had. He smashed 58 homers, drove in 131, scored 137 runs, cracked 203 hits, and hit .302. The homers, runs, and hits numbers led the league. He also had 40 doubles—after hitting a league leading 55 two years ago—so he’s an equal-opportunity extra base hit masher. His spray chart shows a number of fly balls to straight away right and very few doubles, as he’s learned to elevate the ball up and over the big wall in AT&T’s right field.
Klattenburger will get a chance to square off against the team that traded him, but not for the player he was traded for as Brandon Waddell is out for the season.
Arturo Rivera backs up Klattenburger as another exceptional left-handed run producer. Rivera hit .285 with 29 home runs, 49 doubles, five triples, and 111 RBIs. Rivera’s spray chart shows more balls hit to right-center, which at AT&T means fewer homers, but more doubles and triples should a ball evade an outfielder. The former rookie of the year kills righties, with a .931 OPS, but was vulnerable to lefties. Southpaws held Rivera to just a .228 average and a .684 OPS.
The rest of San Francisco’s lineup is optimized to get guys who get hits ahead of or just behind their sluggers. Sergio Maldonado has moved to the leadoff spot. He’s hitting .309. Calvin Mitchell was moved to second. He has a .301 average. Dan Cabrera was moved to the bench, but he played in 90 starts this year, often hitting fifth, and produced a .319 average. Joe Taylor mostly hit towards the bottom of the Giants order, but he hit .307. That’s a lot of base hits to bring in guys from second if they double.
A high-average approach works for the Giants because they’re still a great baserunning team. They’re last in stolen bases and don’t try to swipe second to get to third. They simply wait for their hitter to get a base hit, and sprint to third that way. Their 40.0 Baserunning metric is tops in the NL.
San Francisco also has a potent bench. Nelle Willemsen may not start for San Francisco yet, but he’s a former first round pick, a Top 20 Prospect, and a future star. He hit .300 for the Giants, but is still finding his way defensively in a tricky Right Field. Simon Ferguson is a slick-gloved Second Baseman for the most part, but the rookie had a .300 average at the plate.
San Francisco’s one weakness is that it’s extremely reliant on left-handed hitters. The team only has a .741 OPS against lefties, compared to an .832 mark against righties.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, two of their left-handed pitchers will never pitch again with Joe Martin and Brandon Waddell out for the year. That aside, Atlanta serves as a really fun counterbalance to how San Francisco plays. They have the best Zone Rating in the league to counter San Francisco’s singles and doubles hitters, and have the second-best run-prevention in the National League.
They’ll send Marc Eberle, Kevin Brancaccio, Nate Capriglione, and Pat Cypert to the hill this series, four very different pitchers with different styles to keep Atlanta off balance.
Eberle is coming off his worst season since 2024 and as a knuckleballer is very volatile. When he’s at his best, he’s preventing hard contact, and making hitters look foolish with his fluttering knuckleball. This year, those knucklers have hung in the zone more, leading to a Eberle nearly doubling the amount of homers he allowed this year compared to last. It’s a bit of a mystery as to which Eberle will show up, but the better the opponent, higher upside is generally better.
Kevin Brancaccio is the power arm. He has unbelievable stuff, attacks the zone, and dares hitters to handle 100 miles-an-hour heat, with a trap door curve, and a disappearing changeup. He’ll give up some homers as a result from his aggressiveness, but his command is good enough and stuff electric enough that he’ll really limit baserunners.
Nate Capriglione is the pitch-to-contact arm. He limits home runs and had the best walk rate of his career this year, but doesn’t strike hitters out. San Francisco had the second best BABIP in the league, and Capriglione is very reliant on good defense, which could be a problem.
Pat Cypert is the lefty in the rotation. Daddy Long Legs limited lefties to three home runs this year and went 12-2 with a 2.26 ERA in Atlanta this year, and 2-3 with a 4.65 ERA on the road. He’ll likely want to be used in Game 3 and Game 6 should Jim Leesch want to optimize for that.
Atlanta’s bullpen was strong in the middle innings, but Brian Villenueve was a bit of a roller coaster in the ninth. Atlanta also has three lefties in the pen, but only one with any semblance of experience.
Todd Buonadonna was Atlanta’s ace reliever and he carried a 3.14 ERA this season with 56 strikeouts in 48.2 innings. He’s untouchable by righties, but lefties were respectable against him this year. Jorge Cardenas was the other setup man for Atlanta, and while he struggled against lefties last year, held them to a .591 OPS this year.
Steve Ryan worked 103 innings out of the pen for Atlanta in his first full season after a 2-inning cup of coffee in 2025. That’s 91 career innings more than the other lefties in Atlanta’s pen. He struck out 120 hitters, held lefties to a .184 average, and hopefully hasn’t had his arm fallen off with all the work.
Josh Fitzpatrick is a righty who has limited home runs in his career, but has a high walk rate without a high strikeout rate. He held lefties to a .218 average, which will serve him well.
Brian Villenueve led the NL in Saves with 41, but also blew nine saves. He has a good walk rate, but gives up a ton of home runs—14 in 68.1 innings. Lefties hit 10 off him with an .800 OPS. Atlanta can’t be careful with Villenueve facing the heart of the Giants order with a one-run lead.
Jim Morgan, Edwin Thompson, Sam Pascal, and Ricky Dempsey will also be in the Atlanta pen. The quartet has combined for 22.1 innings this year. The profiles of Morgan, Pascal, and Dempsey from their past or their minor league profiles are pitchers who limit homers and don’t strikeout a bunch of hitters. Thompson is a wild lefty with electric stuff who limited homers in the minors. He may be a viable option for the series.
Atlanta was second to last in outfield assists, which may be a problem with San Francisco’s baserunning, but their up-the-middle defense was fantastic and should be able to turn some double plays if the Giants get some runners on first.
Braves Hitting versus Giants Pitching:
San Francisco was fifth in starters ERA this year, and is a worse unit than it’s been in seasons past. An injury to Shane Baz really hurts their top-tier depth, and the club will rely on Tripod Lias and a bunch of youngsters.
Lias was more hittable this year than in years past, with a home run rate higher than his exceptional 2026 numbers, and a much higher BABIP. He’s still fantastic with a 3.49 FIP. As in years past, he’s untouchable at home, going 9-2 with a 2.96 ERA in AT&T Park. Tripod is now 25-3 the last three seasons at home.
The rest of their rotation of Rich Sparks, Dylan Jacques, and Chris Davis have a combined 53 career starts. Sparks’ stuff didn’t play up in 77.1 innings, but he limited homers and walks and had a .247 BABIP. With the stuff limited, and the reliance on BABIP and a good park, he understandably had a 2.17 ERA at home and a 5.97 road ERA.
Jacques pitched the entire year in the bullpen and struck out 85 in 85.2 innings. He had a decent ground ball rate, and a decent 4.23 FIP that was about league average. League average relievers generally pitch worse in the rotation though, so the Giants won’t be able to have high expectations for the youngster.
Davis is the veteran of the group, a ground-pounder who limits homers and extra base hits by keeping a high ground ball rate.
San Francisco’s bullpen is good, but filled with arms who are a little bit worse than last year. Rafael A. Gomez has good stuff, a great walk rate, and has a 1.46 career playoff ERA, making him a very reliable arm. Ryan DiSibio has a 31% strikeout rate and a 1.5% home run rate. His ERA jumped from 1.64 to 3.00 but he’s still exceptional. He didn’t allow a home run to righties, and allowed lefties to hit .195, making a weapon against batters from both sides of the plate.
Despite decent peripherals, Octavio Lopez saw his ERA balloon to 4.79 this year. A .337 BABIP is the biggest culprit—he’ll need his defense to step up for him. Alex McKee gets grounders, handles righties, and also will need his defense to step up for him as he doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate. Shamar Polite is the one lefty in the pen. Cupcakes is used a lot as a specialist, but is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate, holding each set to an average under .200. Righties slugged .239 off him. Tim Johnson was moved to the pen from the rotation after his ERA jumped to 5.20. He limits homers, but only struck out 19% of hitters and dealt with a .329 BABIP.
San Francisco had great defense from Enrique Valdez at Shortstop, but Orlando Arcia was only okay at Second Base, and their Right Field defense has been subpar, allowing left-handed hitters to have success on balls in play. Arcia and Frazer McWhir will have the spotlight on them in the field as they’ll need to perform for the Giants. Brian Hampton threw out 28% of base stealers and will be under the gun a lot as Atlanta leads the league in steals.
The Braves only had the eighth best offense in the league. They were eighth in average and ninth in home runs. The one thing they did well was get Juan Gestoso to first and have him wreak havoc on the bases.
Gestoso had another stellar season, hitting .329 with a .438 OBP and 39 steals. He led the league in steals in each of those categories, the second time he’s led the league in OBP, the first time he’s led the league in average, and the fifth consecutive season he’s led the league in steals. Gestoso went 0-4 in the Wild Card Game versus Tripod last year, but he’s an Arizona postseason legend with a postseason average of .318 to go with a .390 OBP, 24 runs scored, five homers, and seven steals in 26 games. An NLCS and World Series MVP as a rookie, Gestoso has rung the bell and entered the home of elite playoff performers.
The rest of Atlanta’s attack is way more pedestrian. Only two hitters had at least 20 home runs and neither hit above .232. Aside from Gestoso, only one hitter hit above .263. The team will draw walks, and use Ronny Mauricio’s 15 steals in 15 attempts and Steve Goode’s 14 steals in 20 attempts to work with Gestoso to create an edge on the bases. It isn’t a high-octane offense though. Atlanta hit for just a .699 OPS on the road, and aside from having the fourth best walk rate in the NL, didn’t really do anything offensively to hang their hat on. Against a staff like San Francisco’s it will be tough for them to score.
Season Series:
San Francisco won the season series 5-2, winning three of four in San Francisco in May, and taking two of three in Atlanta in September. The Giants won the first game 6-3 when Leo Nunez tied the game off Villanueve with a ninth inning hit before Calvin Mitchell walked off with a three-run home run, illustrating Villanueve’s struggles. Atlanta only managed three hits in the game with Gestoso sitting.
Atlanta won the second game with an Orlando Arcia error allowing the Braves to score two in the ninth of a 6-5 win. San Francisco won the final two games getting 3.2 perfect innings from the bullpen in a 7-3 win and 3 shutout innings from the frame in a 3-0 shutout.
In September, Mekhi Lias pitched well in Atlanta and Arturo Rivera homered twice in a 7-1 Giants win. The Giants erases a 6-3 deficit the next day with an eight-run sixth as the Giants hit four homers in a 14-7 win. Marc Eberle was roughed up, as were Thompson and Cardenas. Atlanta got four in the first inning of the finale and held on to salvage a 4-3 win.
Deciding Questions:
Who will win the battle between Atlanta’s offense versus San Francisco’ inexperienced pitchers?
Will Atlanta’s top pitchers be able to stop San Francisco’s lefties?
Will Brian Villanueve be able to lock down a ninth inning lead?
Prediction: The series may be a little more high scoring than one may expect from a Giants-Braves series, but San Francisco’s got the better bullpen and the better offense. Giants 4-1.
The Milwaukee Brewers were a regular season titan for the third straight season, winning 119 games, most in history. Furthermore, their bitter postseason rivals, the three-time NL Champion and two-time World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers were ousted in the Wild Card round. With the National League field opening up to them, they’ll have to contend with the rare club that has the upper-echelon talent to challenge them. Milwaukee’s juggernaut facing off against Eric Pena and Bryce Harper should make for a thrilling NLDS.
Brewers Hitting versus Nationals Pitching:
Milwaukee’s offense has been outstanding against righties during its recent ascent with some weaknesses against lefties that reared up in the postseason. They appeared to have solved that weakness this season as their OPS against righties and lefties are more similar than they’ve been in the past. It’s given them much more balance—and won’t matter a bit against a Nationals team with 11 of its 13 pitchers right-handed.
Milwaukee does have a better OPS against righties this year than last, a product of Mike Perches being healthy for a full season. Perches picked up where he left off in 2025 before a gruesome fractured knee robbed him of most of 2026. The home runs were down from 48 to 30, but a decreases run environment has contributed to that. Perches upped his double count from 20 to 43, and hit .318 this year. He’s a superstar who may be the best offensive player in the series.
Perches is surrounded by superstars in the lineup but superstars with playoff questions. Nick Rollins won’t have the playing time to challenge for a loaded rookie of the year crop—but he looks like a stud. In 151 Plate Appearances, he hit .309 with a .583 slugging. Rodolfo Rivera hit 37 home runs, walked more than he struck out, and should have been an All-Star this year. However, Rollins isn’t playoff tested, and struggled in the Double-A playoffs last year. Meanwhile, Rivera was one of the goats of last year’s postseason, going 2-24 in the postseason.
Will Dulihanty was great last year, but struggled mightily this season before three home runs in Cincinnati and Colorado the final week of the year made his numbers look respectable. Matt Aceto had a career low in all his rate stats, a career high number of strikeouts, and had a .606 OPS last postseason.
This isn’t to say that those hitters aren’t dangerous or that the Brewers don’t have, on paper, a powerhouse lineup. It’s just that they aren’t infallible despite providing the firepower for a 119-win club. The loss of Luis Rivera, a hitter who put up a .912 OPS this year, with 34 doubles and 24 home runs in 512 Plate Appearances, necessitates Dulihanty being in the lineup, and the team having more questions than it needs.
However, while there are questions, Aceto is a former All-Star, Rivera is a former Platinum Stick winner, and Greg Jacks is the reigning MVP. The bottom of Milwaukee’s lineup is also pretty strong, with Noah Campbell hitting over .300, Zach Prajzner getting on base at a .343 clip, and Elih Marrero cracking 18 doubles. Steve Mulvey hit .303 against lefties and is an asset on their bench. Tim Elmore had an .802 OPS against lefties and is on their bench. They can pinch hit for someone against Viashi Buzoku and then sub out for Quadir Murriel, who hits lefties and is a great defender. There’s a lot to like.
There’s also a lot to dislike with the Washington staff. Eric Pena pitched in the Wild Card Game and most likely will only go twice this series, meaning Washington will need outstanding work from Peter Solomon, Joe Ross, and Luis D. Guzman. Solomon battled arm woes on the way to a decent, but underwhelming year, while Ross had an ERA of 6.32. Guzman had a 5.31 ERA and struck out just 16% of hitters.
The starters also have a spotty playoff history. Ross has been knocked off before the fifth inning and has an ERA of 9.64 or higher in each of his playoff starts in 2019, 2020, 2023, and 2025, despite being one of the best arms during the club’s 2021 title. Even with a 3-0, 1.86 mark in the 2021 postseason, Ross has a career 6.88 postseason ERA. Guzman has never started a playoff game and has a 5.40 career playoff mark of his own. Solomon has a long, mixed track record, but is 2-5 with a 4.84 mark lifetime in seasons where he was a much better arm.
The only reliable arm is Eric Pena, a pitcher with the nuclear arsenal to liquefy even Milwaukee’s bats. He likely won’t be seen until Game 3 at the earliest though, giving Milwaukee a chance to have a similar NLDS trajectory to last year, where they were shut down by Mehki Lias, but had no trouble with the rest of the Giants on the way to a five-game series win.
Washington’s pen may be the best in their history. It was middle of the pack, but the good arms were very good. Omar Lara is wild, but he finally stopped allowing homers and fanned 116 hitters in 64.1 innings. He has the elite stuff needed to combat Milwaukee. Jon Carter is a similar profile, though the stuff isn’t quite as good. Carter gets great downward plane on his pitches and has been fantastic at limiting homers the last three years. He never gives into hitters though, resulting in a ton of free passes and a ton of strikeouts. The upside will likely be needed to have a chance against Milwaukee, despite the disaster potential.
Boyd Vander Kooi dealt with shoulder injuries this year, but had a solid 3.43 ERA without a homer allowed in the 21 innings he pitched. Kooi—stop if you see the pattern—keeps the ball in the park, has a fantastic strikeout rate, and will give up walks.
Health Fillmeyer, a 33-year-old who flamed out with the Orioles and bounced around the minor league wilderness, reappeared this year to prevent homers, strikeout a fair number of hitters, and give up a ton of walks. Melvin Adon struck out nearly a batter an inning, and had a HR/9 of less than 1.0. He also walked 29 in 48.1 innings.
Devin Arminger may be the one arm who deviates from the Nationals pattern. His strikeout rate is fine, but he’ll pitch in the zone more, limiting walks, but giving him home runs as the tradeoff. He was a hero of the Wild Card Game, and allowed only three of 21 inherited runners to score. He may be an option if Washington needs a double play.
Washington’s defense somehow was second worst at turning double plays, despite numerous opportunities for its fielders with all the free passes surrendered. Washington played solid infield defense, but was awful in the outfield. The Nationals will need the strikeouts to prevent all the doubles Milwaukee should hit if it makes good contact.
Daniel Flores is excellent at preventing steals and Washington’s arms hold runners on well, though the Brewers are a good base-stealing team. Who wins that matchup will be fascinating.
Nationals Hitting versus Brewers Pitching
Milwaukee’s starting pitching is utterly spectacular. Mike Arnold was the 2026 Cy Young Award winner. He won 16 games with a 2.47 ERA and 0.90 WHIP that both led the league. He struck out 301 players and would have led the league if not for Eric Pena’s existence. He someone improved his ERA this year to 2.00 with 219 strikeouts in 152.2 innings.
Among hitters who qualified for the ERA title, Branden Andexler led the league in ERA with a 2.14 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He went 21-3 and is now a Cy Young candidate.
When The Heater From St. Peters wasn’t getting hit by a train, he was making hitters wish they were. Tim Kierstead had the best ERA of his career at 2.51, allowed just 10 homers, and had an amazing 78 strikeouts to 11 walks at home.
There’s no need to go too far in depth to discuss the pitchers, other than that they’re each worthy of any superlative you can throw at them. Deep dives don’t reveal strategies to score against them, just further levels of excellence. For example, Mike Arnold allowed hitters to hit for a .464 OPS in Miller Park. In the first three innings of the game, batters had a .504 OPS against Scruffy Andexler. Tim Kierstead allowed hitters to hit for a .361 OPS after the sixth inning.
It will be extremely difficult for Washington to hit that trio at all. It won’t be impossible. Bryce Harper can hold his own against the game’s best, and Mike Trout had success against the trio in the regular season. The default assumption should be that a team won’t be lighting up the scoreboard though.
The Nationals might have more of a chance against the Brewers’ number four, Holden Christian, but it’s relative. Christian had an outstanding walk rate and allowed 0.9 HR/9 this year, leading to 4.4 WAR. He doesn’t have the best stuff, but it may play up against a Washington that struck out at a higher rate than any other NL team, and the Brewers have the defense to keep Washington from going crazy on balls-in-play.
Milwaukee’s bullpen is elite. It goes nine deep with four righties, five lefties, and a lot of talent. Seven had ERAs in the 2s. A couple had ERAs in the 3. The pair with ERA in the 3s, Blayne Enlow, and Mike Gaylord, still combined for 3.1 WAR. Enlow, Gaylord, and Warf are the only three members who allowed more than a home run every nine innings, so the Nationals will likely need to work for their comebacks.
Milwaukee had the third best zone rating in the league and the fewest errors, so they won’t hurt themselves in the field. They’re particularly good up the middle with Jacks in Center, Prajzner at Shortstop, and Noah Campbell at Second Base. If they do some pinch hitting, Murriel comes off the bench as a strong defender at Second Base. If Washington wants to run, which they like to do, Elih Marrero gunned down nearly 40% of baserunners.
Season Series:
The two teams split the season series, with Milwaukee taking a home series in May, and Washington winning at home in August. Only twice did a team score more than five runs, but only once did a team score fewer than three.
Washington got great bullpen work on May 10th to win 4-3 in 14 innings. Their bullpen worked 8.2 shutout frames, lasting long enough for Clint Coulter to hit a solo blast off Enlow in the 14th. Milwaukee got runners on the corners in the bottom of the inning with two outs, but Luis Rivera’s liner was snagged on a nice running catch by Harper to secure the win. Mike Trout homered and doubled.
Milwaukee won the next two games 5-3 and 7-3. Washington got six runs, but only had 11 hits and four walks combined. They really made the most of their baserunners as Arnold and Andexler struck out a combined 24 Nationals. Mike Perches had a pinch hit 3-run homer to give the Brewers the win in the middle game, and Matt Aceto homered and drove in four in the finale.
Milwaukee scored two in the top of the tenth—but Washington scored three in the bottom of the frame to win the first game in Washington 6-5. Rodolofo Rivera had the big homer to give the Brewers the lead, but Harper had a big double in the bottom of the frame, and Clint Coulter—hero of the Wild Card Game—drew a bases loaded walk to literally walk off with a win.
Milwaukee got a measure of revenge the next day with a three-run rally in the eighth to edge Washington 5-4. Perches got on base three times, Gaylord worked 3.1 perfect innings, and Harper was hurt in the first inning. Washington won the series the next day when Hawkeye was hurt in the first and the Brewers ran into an Eric Pena gem. A rare Brewers error by Campbell helped the Nats scratch across four runs, while Pena, Carter, and Lara worked a one-hitter to win 4-1.
Deciding Questions:
Can Washington’s starters outside of Pena hang in long enough to give the Nationals bullpen a chance?
Can the Brewers put aside past playoff failures or are do their hitters shrink in key games?
Which Mike Trout will show up? Milwaukee has a Hall-of-Fame pitching staff. It might take Hall-of-Fame offensive performances to beat it, something Trout has been in the past, but not this season.
Prediction: Washington will win a game it should (Pena outdueling Christian or one of the Brewers’ aces) and a game it shouldn’t (scoring five runs on five hits), but it will also get blown out in most of their losses. Milwaukee is simply a class above Washington. Brewers 4-2.
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves had a strange year, with new management, administrative dysfunction, career-ending injuries to key pitchers, and operating in a strong NL East working against them. They still found a way to tie for their most wins in franchise history, capturing the NL East for the first time. They’ll take on a Giants team that peaked in September and is playing outstanding baseball. Injuries and defections have resulted in the staff not being as strong as years past, but this edition is easily the best offense in Giants history.
Giants Hitting versus Braves Pitching:
San Francisco was third in offense despite playing in an extreme run prevention park. They were third in home OPS, behind only the Coors-aided Rockies, and the Beer-aided Phillies, managing to find ways to make their offense work despite the environment.
Past elite Giants teams relied on contact, speed, and small ball. This San Francisco team isn’t your—father’s San Francisco Giants? Older brother’s? The PBA is only 11 years old after all. Either way, it’s a stark difference than how the Giants of the late teens or mid 20s operate. Kelyn Klattenburger gives the Giants the offensive monster they’ve never had. He smashed 58 homers, drove in 131, scored 137 runs, cracked 203 hits, and hit .302. The homers, runs, and hits numbers led the league. He also had 40 doubles—after hitting a league leading 55 two years ago—so he’s an equal-opportunity extra base hit masher. His spray chart shows a number of fly balls to straight away right and very few doubles, as he’s learned to elevate the ball up and over the big wall in AT&T’s right field.
Klattenburger will get a chance to square off against the team that traded him, but not for the player he was traded for as Brandon Waddell is out for the season.
Arturo Rivera backs up Klattenburger as another exceptional left-handed run producer. Rivera hit .285 with 29 home runs, 49 doubles, five triples, and 111 RBIs. Rivera’s spray chart shows more balls hit to right-center, which at AT&T means fewer homers, but more doubles and triples should a ball evade an outfielder. The former rookie of the year kills righties, with a .931 OPS, but was vulnerable to lefties. Southpaws held Rivera to just a .228 average and a .684 OPS.
The rest of San Francisco’s lineup is optimized to get guys who get hits ahead of or just behind their sluggers. Sergio Maldonado has moved to the leadoff spot. He’s hitting .309. Calvin Mitchell was moved to second. He has a .301 average. Dan Cabrera was moved to the bench, but he played in 90 starts this year, often hitting fifth, and produced a .319 average. Joe Taylor mostly hit towards the bottom of the Giants order, but he hit .307. That’s a lot of base hits to bring in guys from second if they double.
A high-average approach works for the Giants because they’re still a great baserunning team. They’re last in stolen bases and don’t try to swipe second to get to third. They simply wait for their hitter to get a base hit, and sprint to third that way. Their 40.0 Baserunning metric is tops in the NL.
San Francisco also has a potent bench. Nelle Willemsen may not start for San Francisco yet, but he’s a former first round pick, a Top 20 Prospect, and a future star. He hit .300 for the Giants, but is still finding his way defensively in a tricky Right Field. Simon Ferguson is a slick-gloved Second Baseman for the most part, but the rookie had a .300 average at the plate.
San Francisco’s one weakness is that it’s extremely reliant on left-handed hitters. The team only has a .741 OPS against lefties, compared to an .832 mark against righties.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, two of their left-handed pitchers will never pitch again with Joe Martin and Brandon Waddell out for the year. That aside, Atlanta serves as a really fun counterbalance to how San Francisco plays. They have the best Zone Rating in the league to counter San Francisco’s singles and doubles hitters, and have the second-best run-prevention in the National League.
They’ll send Marc Eberle, Kevin Brancaccio, Nate Capriglione, and Pat Cypert to the hill this series, four very different pitchers with different styles to keep Atlanta off balance.
Eberle is coming off his worst season since 2024 and as a knuckleballer is very volatile. When he’s at his best, he’s preventing hard contact, and making hitters look foolish with his fluttering knuckleball. This year, those knucklers have hung in the zone more, leading to a Eberle nearly doubling the amount of homers he allowed this year compared to last. It’s a bit of a mystery as to which Eberle will show up, but the better the opponent, higher upside is generally better.
Kevin Brancaccio is the power arm. He has unbelievable stuff, attacks the zone, and dares hitters to handle 100 miles-an-hour heat, with a trap door curve, and a disappearing changeup. He’ll give up some homers as a result from his aggressiveness, but his command is good enough and stuff electric enough that he’ll really limit baserunners.
Nate Capriglione is the pitch-to-contact arm. He limits home runs and had the best walk rate of his career this year, but doesn’t strike hitters out. San Francisco had the second best BABIP in the league, and Capriglione is very reliant on good defense, which could be a problem.
Pat Cypert is the lefty in the rotation. Daddy Long Legs limited lefties to three home runs this year and went 12-2 with a 2.26 ERA in Atlanta this year, and 2-3 with a 4.65 ERA on the road. He’ll likely want to be used in Game 3 and Game 6 should Jim Leesch want to optimize for that.
Atlanta’s bullpen was strong in the middle innings, but Brian Villenueve was a bit of a roller coaster in the ninth. Atlanta also has three lefties in the pen, but only one with any semblance of experience.
Todd Buonadonna was Atlanta’s ace reliever and he carried a 3.14 ERA this season with 56 strikeouts in 48.2 innings. He’s untouchable by righties, but lefties were respectable against him this year. Jorge Cardenas was the other setup man for Atlanta, and while he struggled against lefties last year, held them to a .591 OPS this year.
Steve Ryan worked 103 innings out of the pen for Atlanta in his first full season after a 2-inning cup of coffee in 2025. That’s 91 career innings more than the other lefties in Atlanta’s pen. He struck out 120 hitters, held lefties to a .184 average, and hopefully hasn’t had his arm fallen off with all the work.
Josh Fitzpatrick is a righty who has limited home runs in his career, but has a high walk rate without a high strikeout rate. He held lefties to a .218 average, which will serve him well.
Brian Villenueve led the NL in Saves with 41, but also blew nine saves. He has a good walk rate, but gives up a ton of home runs—14 in 68.1 innings. Lefties hit 10 off him with an .800 OPS. Atlanta can’t be careful with Villenueve facing the heart of the Giants order with a one-run lead.
Jim Morgan, Edwin Thompson, Sam Pascal, and Ricky Dempsey will also be in the Atlanta pen. The quartet has combined for 22.1 innings this year. The profiles of Morgan, Pascal, and Dempsey from their past or their minor league profiles are pitchers who limit homers and don’t strikeout a bunch of hitters. Thompson is a wild lefty with electric stuff who limited homers in the minors. He may be a viable option for the series.
Atlanta was second to last in outfield assists, which may be a problem with San Francisco’s baserunning, but their up-the-middle defense was fantastic and should be able to turn some double plays if the Giants get some runners on first.
Braves Hitting versus Giants Pitching:
San Francisco was fifth in starters ERA this year, and is a worse unit than it’s been in seasons past. An injury to Shane Baz really hurts their top-tier depth, and the club will rely on Tripod Lias and a bunch of youngsters.
Lias was more hittable this year than in years past, with a home run rate higher than his exceptional 2026 numbers, and a much higher BABIP. He’s still fantastic with a 3.49 FIP. As in years past, he’s untouchable at home, going 9-2 with a 2.96 ERA in AT&T Park. Tripod is now 25-3 the last three seasons at home.
The rest of their rotation of Rich Sparks, Dylan Jacques, and Chris Davis have a combined 53 career starts. Sparks’ stuff didn’t play up in 77.1 innings, but he limited homers and walks and had a .247 BABIP. With the stuff limited, and the reliance on BABIP and a good park, he understandably had a 2.17 ERA at home and a 5.97 road ERA.
Jacques pitched the entire year in the bullpen and struck out 85 in 85.2 innings. He had a decent ground ball rate, and a decent 4.23 FIP that was about league average. League average relievers generally pitch worse in the rotation though, so the Giants won’t be able to have high expectations for the youngster.
Davis is the veteran of the group, a ground-pounder who limits homers and extra base hits by keeping a high ground ball rate.
San Francisco’s bullpen is good, but filled with arms who are a little bit worse than last year. Rafael A. Gomez has good stuff, a great walk rate, and has a 1.46 career playoff ERA, making him a very reliable arm. Ryan DiSibio has a 31% strikeout rate and a 1.5% home run rate. His ERA jumped from 1.64 to 3.00 but he’s still exceptional. He didn’t allow a home run to righties, and allowed lefties to hit .195, making a weapon against batters from both sides of the plate.
Despite decent peripherals, Octavio Lopez saw his ERA balloon to 4.79 this year. A .337 BABIP is the biggest culprit—he’ll need his defense to step up for him. Alex McKee gets grounders, handles righties, and also will need his defense to step up for him as he doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate. Shamar Polite is the one lefty in the pen. Cupcakes is used a lot as a specialist, but is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate, holding each set to an average under .200. Righties slugged .239 off him. Tim Johnson was moved to the pen from the rotation after his ERA jumped to 5.20. He limits homers, but only struck out 19% of hitters and dealt with a .329 BABIP.
San Francisco had great defense from Enrique Valdez at Shortstop, but Orlando Arcia was only okay at Second Base, and their Right Field defense has been subpar, allowing left-handed hitters to have success on balls in play. Arcia and Frazer McWhir will have the spotlight on them in the field as they’ll need to perform for the Giants. Brian Hampton threw out 28% of base stealers and will be under the gun a lot as Atlanta leads the league in steals.
The Braves only had the eighth best offense in the league. They were eighth in average and ninth in home runs. The one thing they did well was get Juan Gestoso to first and have him wreak havoc on the bases.
Gestoso had another stellar season, hitting .329 with a .438 OBP and 39 steals. He led the league in steals in each of those categories, the second time he’s led the league in OBP, the first time he’s led the league in average, and the fifth consecutive season he’s led the league in steals. Gestoso went 0-4 in the Wild Card Game versus Tripod last year, but he’s an Arizona postseason legend with a postseason average of .318 to go with a .390 OBP, 24 runs scored, five homers, and seven steals in 26 games. An NLCS and World Series MVP as a rookie, Gestoso has rung the bell and entered the home of elite playoff performers.
The rest of Atlanta’s attack is way more pedestrian. Only two hitters had at least 20 home runs and neither hit above .232. Aside from Gestoso, only one hitter hit above .263. The team will draw walks, and use Ronny Mauricio’s 15 steals in 15 attempts and Steve Goode’s 14 steals in 20 attempts to work with Gestoso to create an edge on the bases. It isn’t a high-octane offense though. Atlanta hit for just a .699 OPS on the road, and aside from having the fourth best walk rate in the NL, didn’t really do anything offensively to hang their hat on. Against a staff like San Francisco’s it will be tough for them to score.
Season Series:
San Francisco won the season series 5-2, winning three of four in San Francisco in May, and taking two of three in Atlanta in September. The Giants won the first game 6-3 when Leo Nunez tied the game off Villanueve with a ninth inning hit before Calvin Mitchell walked off with a three-run home run, illustrating Villanueve’s struggles. Atlanta only managed three hits in the game with Gestoso sitting.
Atlanta won the second game with an Orlando Arcia error allowing the Braves to score two in the ninth of a 6-5 win. San Francisco won the final two games getting 3.2 perfect innings from the bullpen in a 7-3 win and 3 shutout innings from the frame in a 3-0 shutout.
In September, Mekhi Lias pitched well in Atlanta and Arturo Rivera homered twice in a 7-1 Giants win. The Giants erases a 6-3 deficit the next day with an eight-run sixth as the Giants hit four homers in a 14-7 win. Marc Eberle was roughed up, as were Thompson and Cardenas. Atlanta got four in the first inning of the finale and held on to salvage a 4-3 win.
Deciding Questions:
Who will win the battle between Atlanta’s offense versus San Francisco’ inexperienced pitchers?
Will Atlanta’s top pitchers be able to stop San Francisco’s lefties?
Will Brian Villanueve be able to lock down a ninth inning lead?
Prediction: The series may be a little more high scoring than one may expect from a Giants-Braves series, but San Francisco’s got the better bullpen and the better offense. Giants 4-1.