Post by Commissioner Erick on Mar 21, 2022 8:38:44 GMT -5
Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals
The Milwaukee Brewers and Kansas City have somewhat similar franchise arcs. Each were moribund franchises in the early days of the PBA that underwent managerial changes that set them straight. Each were patient, taking the slow road to roster building. Each has been in the playoffs a few years in a row now, and each is playing for the 2027 World Series.
Brewers Hitting versus Royals Pitching
With Kyle Hendricks dealing with a bit of a bad back, Kansas City will likely roll out Taylor Lehman, Dakota Hudson, and Tyler Alexander twice during the World Series, with Hendricks possibly getting Game 4.
The Royals have a 3.00 ERA in the playoffs, and have allowed hitters to hit for a .599 OPS. They showed great command, allowing hitters a .272 OBP in the playoffs after a league-leading .306 OBP in the regular season. Kansas City’s starters have been good, with a 3.51 playoff ERA, but their bullpen has been outstanding with a 2.44 mark. Justin Dunn and Monte Rodriguez are the only arms in the pen with over a 2.84 ERA, and 38-year-old Addison Reed has gone 12 scoreless innings this postseason.
The Brewers have only faced one good lefty starter this postseason and scored just two runs over 6 innings against Pat Cypert in Game 2 of the NLCS. They’ll face two Royal lefties in the World Series in Lehman, who went 5 shutout in the ALCS, and Tyler Alexander, who got roughed up by Detroit and has a 6.14 playoff ERA. Milwaukee may be vulnerable to lefties, but Lehman may be the only one who can really handle Milwaukee’s lineup.
The Brewers’ postseason trend the past three years has been to clobber poor arms and struggle against the best pitching and the best defenses. Milwaukee clobbered an underwhelming Nationals staff in the NLDS—though they did handle Eric Pena without a hitch—but they scored just 12 runs in the NLCS, and topped out at four runs in a game. Kansas City doesn’t quite have the high-end pitching talent that Atlanta has in the rotation, but they have enough in the rotation, an excellent defense, and a great pen to imitate the work the Dodgers did on Milwaukee in playoffs past.
The Brewers didn’t hit well in the NLCS, with only two regulars hitting .300 or better, and only two players homering—Matt Aceto who hit a solo home run and went 2-11 in the round, and Rodolfo Rivera, whose two homers were his only hits in 15 games. Milwaukee is also shorthanded early in the playoffs, with Nick Rollins out and Luis Rivera cleared to return when the series shifts to Kansas City.
Kansas City also matches up well with Milwaukee in another area. The Royals are middle of the pack when it comes to strikeout rate, so Milwaukee’s exceptional ability to make contact shouldn’t bother them too much as it’s the style they already want to play. Kyle Hendrick and Tyler Alexander are first and second all time at lowest strikeout rate amongst qualified playoff starters, but they’re in the top five in lowest walk rates too. Kansas City will make Milwaukee put the ball in play and hope their defense can win the BABIP battles. Whether Kansas City can avoid walks and doubles may determine if their pitching is enough to win the series.
Royals Hitting versus Brewers Pitching
Milwaukee has the best pitching staff in PBA history, with a trio of arms that can make history with any start, and a fourth arm who is merely excellent. After a few too many homers his first postseason in 2025, Mike Arnold has been spectacular with a 1.02 postseason ERA the past two seasons. He’s allowed just five baserunners this postseason with 26 strikeouts in 14.1 innings. His 15-strikeout NLCS performance was the most all time in PBA playoff history. He’s the reigning Cy Young Award winner, and he’s the Brewers arm pitching only second best.
All Branden Andexler did his last start was come within three outs of a playoff no-hitter. He worked 8 hitless innings—his second time in his last five starts allowing one or fewer hits in 8 innings—in a masterpiece. It was the first no-hitter in PBA history, and the fact Josh Blystone needed to come on for the final three outs made it no less spectacular.
Tim Kierstead has dusted off getting hit by a train in the regular season to post a 1.26 postseason ERA. He hasn’t struck out 15 in a game, nor come three outs from a no-hitter, so relative to Milwaukee’s other arms, his playoff performance has been pedestrian.
Holden Christian doesn’t have nearly the electricity of the other trio of arms, and as a result, has a shorter hook. He has a 2.08 ERA though, allowing four walks, but only four hits in 8.2 innings. He’ll exit early and bring on a bullpen that has a 1.61 ERA, with a single walk, a single home run, and 32 strikeouts allowed in 22.1 innings.
It’s going to be hellacious to try to score on this offense, but that’s the task for the Royals. Kansas City has hit singles and gotten on base, leading to a nice .282 average and .359 on-base mark, but they only have a .373 slugging percentage with only five home runs. Milwaukee likely won’t walk them, so they’ll have to win with BABIP.
Kansas City will rely, as they’ve done all year, on Jonathan Vargas to shoulder a lot of offensive responsibility. After hitting .308 and leading the AL with 55 doubles and 133 RBIs in the regular season—with 44 home runs to boot—he’s continued his stellar play in the postseason. He’s batting .344 with 10 walks, 10 runs scored, and 10 driven in. He’s been helped by a sturdy number two in Jonathan Bakos, who has a .370 average in the playoffs and four doubles. Jim Sattler has been getting on base ahead of Vargas, with a .333 average in the playoffs.
No other Royals is hitting for an .800+ OPS in the playoffs though. A number of players are in the high .700s led by high averages and good walk numbers, but the lack of power is evident. Whether or not the Royals can get enough singles will determine their offensive output.
Milwaukee’s defense is a little more vulnerable with Nick Rollins out, as it forces Matt Aceto to Third Base and Will Dulihanty to Right Field. Aceto is serviceable at Third, but Wombat moves slowly in Right. How Dulihanty holds up is a big subplot.
Season Series
The two teams didn’t play this past season. Kansas City owns an 11-9 career matchup, though Milwaukee is 5-3 against Kansas City since 2023.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Elih Marrero vs Michael Bates: 4-14
Will Dulihanty vs Michael Bates: 4-11
Matt Aceto vs Michael Bates: 3-20, 1 HR
Noah Campbell vs Michael Bates: 2-10
Noah Campbell vs Kyle Hendricks: 1-11, 1 HR
Zack Prajzner vs Michael Bates: 1-12
Mike Perches vs Michael Bates: 1-10
Greg Jacks vs Michael Bates: 9-20, 1 HR
Luis Rivera vs Michael Bates 4-20, 1 HR
Blake Hunt vs Holden Christian: 2-12
Dominic Smith vs Eddie Sherk: 8-24, 1 HR
Dominic Smith vs Tim Kierstead: 1-10
Dominic Smith vs Blayne Enlow: 2-12, 1 HR
Dominic Smith vs Mike Arnold: 3-18
Dominic Smith vs Branden Andexler 6-14, 1 HR
Harland Guenette vs Toby Dunlap: 3-10, 1 HR
Harland Guenette vs Mike Arnold: 5-22
Quentin Holmes vs Holden Christian: 5-10, 1 HR
Deciding Questions
Can Kansas City’s defense win battle against Milwaukee’s offense on balls in play?
Can Milwaukee prevent Kansas City from hitting enough doubles to generate offense?
Kansas City will certainly need one of its arms to outduel one of Milwaukee’s aces in a contest. Do they have what it takes?
Prediction: Nobody has scored on Milwaukee yet, and Kansas City won’t be able to do so for more than a couple of games. Milwaukee will punctuate the most wins in PBA history with a World Series win. Brewers 4-1.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Kansas City have somewhat similar franchise arcs. Each were moribund franchises in the early days of the PBA that underwent managerial changes that set them straight. Each were patient, taking the slow road to roster building. Each has been in the playoffs a few years in a row now, and each is playing for the 2027 World Series.
Brewers Hitting versus Royals Pitching
With Kyle Hendricks dealing with a bit of a bad back, Kansas City will likely roll out Taylor Lehman, Dakota Hudson, and Tyler Alexander twice during the World Series, with Hendricks possibly getting Game 4.
The Royals have a 3.00 ERA in the playoffs, and have allowed hitters to hit for a .599 OPS. They showed great command, allowing hitters a .272 OBP in the playoffs after a league-leading .306 OBP in the regular season. Kansas City’s starters have been good, with a 3.51 playoff ERA, but their bullpen has been outstanding with a 2.44 mark. Justin Dunn and Monte Rodriguez are the only arms in the pen with over a 2.84 ERA, and 38-year-old Addison Reed has gone 12 scoreless innings this postseason.
The Brewers have only faced one good lefty starter this postseason and scored just two runs over 6 innings against Pat Cypert in Game 2 of the NLCS. They’ll face two Royal lefties in the World Series in Lehman, who went 5 shutout in the ALCS, and Tyler Alexander, who got roughed up by Detroit and has a 6.14 playoff ERA. Milwaukee may be vulnerable to lefties, but Lehman may be the only one who can really handle Milwaukee’s lineup.
The Brewers’ postseason trend the past three years has been to clobber poor arms and struggle against the best pitching and the best defenses. Milwaukee clobbered an underwhelming Nationals staff in the NLDS—though they did handle Eric Pena without a hitch—but they scored just 12 runs in the NLCS, and topped out at four runs in a game. Kansas City doesn’t quite have the high-end pitching talent that Atlanta has in the rotation, but they have enough in the rotation, an excellent defense, and a great pen to imitate the work the Dodgers did on Milwaukee in playoffs past.
The Brewers didn’t hit well in the NLCS, with only two regulars hitting .300 or better, and only two players homering—Matt Aceto who hit a solo home run and went 2-11 in the round, and Rodolfo Rivera, whose two homers were his only hits in 15 games. Milwaukee is also shorthanded early in the playoffs, with Nick Rollins out and Luis Rivera cleared to return when the series shifts to Kansas City.
Kansas City also matches up well with Milwaukee in another area. The Royals are middle of the pack when it comes to strikeout rate, so Milwaukee’s exceptional ability to make contact shouldn’t bother them too much as it’s the style they already want to play. Kyle Hendrick and Tyler Alexander are first and second all time at lowest strikeout rate amongst qualified playoff starters, but they’re in the top five in lowest walk rates too. Kansas City will make Milwaukee put the ball in play and hope their defense can win the BABIP battles. Whether Kansas City can avoid walks and doubles may determine if their pitching is enough to win the series.
Royals Hitting versus Brewers Pitching
Milwaukee has the best pitching staff in PBA history, with a trio of arms that can make history with any start, and a fourth arm who is merely excellent. After a few too many homers his first postseason in 2025, Mike Arnold has been spectacular with a 1.02 postseason ERA the past two seasons. He’s allowed just five baserunners this postseason with 26 strikeouts in 14.1 innings. His 15-strikeout NLCS performance was the most all time in PBA playoff history. He’s the reigning Cy Young Award winner, and he’s the Brewers arm pitching only second best.
All Branden Andexler did his last start was come within three outs of a playoff no-hitter. He worked 8 hitless innings—his second time in his last five starts allowing one or fewer hits in 8 innings—in a masterpiece. It was the first no-hitter in PBA history, and the fact Josh Blystone needed to come on for the final three outs made it no less spectacular.
Tim Kierstead has dusted off getting hit by a train in the regular season to post a 1.26 postseason ERA. He hasn’t struck out 15 in a game, nor come three outs from a no-hitter, so relative to Milwaukee’s other arms, his playoff performance has been pedestrian.
Holden Christian doesn’t have nearly the electricity of the other trio of arms, and as a result, has a shorter hook. He has a 2.08 ERA though, allowing four walks, but only four hits in 8.2 innings. He’ll exit early and bring on a bullpen that has a 1.61 ERA, with a single walk, a single home run, and 32 strikeouts allowed in 22.1 innings.
It’s going to be hellacious to try to score on this offense, but that’s the task for the Royals. Kansas City has hit singles and gotten on base, leading to a nice .282 average and .359 on-base mark, but they only have a .373 slugging percentage with only five home runs. Milwaukee likely won’t walk them, so they’ll have to win with BABIP.
Kansas City will rely, as they’ve done all year, on Jonathan Vargas to shoulder a lot of offensive responsibility. After hitting .308 and leading the AL with 55 doubles and 133 RBIs in the regular season—with 44 home runs to boot—he’s continued his stellar play in the postseason. He’s batting .344 with 10 walks, 10 runs scored, and 10 driven in. He’s been helped by a sturdy number two in Jonathan Bakos, who has a .370 average in the playoffs and four doubles. Jim Sattler has been getting on base ahead of Vargas, with a .333 average in the playoffs.
No other Royals is hitting for an .800+ OPS in the playoffs though. A number of players are in the high .700s led by high averages and good walk numbers, but the lack of power is evident. Whether or not the Royals can get enough singles will determine their offensive output.
Milwaukee’s defense is a little more vulnerable with Nick Rollins out, as it forces Matt Aceto to Third Base and Will Dulihanty to Right Field. Aceto is serviceable at Third, but Wombat moves slowly in Right. How Dulihanty holds up is a big subplot.
Season Series
The two teams didn’t play this past season. Kansas City owns an 11-9 career matchup, though Milwaukee is 5-3 against Kansas City since 2023.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Elih Marrero vs Michael Bates: 4-14
Will Dulihanty vs Michael Bates: 4-11
Matt Aceto vs Michael Bates: 3-20, 1 HR
Noah Campbell vs Michael Bates: 2-10
Noah Campbell vs Kyle Hendricks: 1-11, 1 HR
Zack Prajzner vs Michael Bates: 1-12
Mike Perches vs Michael Bates: 1-10
Greg Jacks vs Michael Bates: 9-20, 1 HR
Luis Rivera vs Michael Bates 4-20, 1 HR
Blake Hunt vs Holden Christian: 2-12
Dominic Smith vs Eddie Sherk: 8-24, 1 HR
Dominic Smith vs Tim Kierstead: 1-10
Dominic Smith vs Blayne Enlow: 2-12, 1 HR
Dominic Smith vs Mike Arnold: 3-18
Dominic Smith vs Branden Andexler 6-14, 1 HR
Harland Guenette vs Toby Dunlap: 3-10, 1 HR
Harland Guenette vs Mike Arnold: 5-22
Quentin Holmes vs Holden Christian: 5-10, 1 HR
Deciding Questions
Can Kansas City’s defense win battle against Milwaukee’s offense on balls in play?
Can Milwaukee prevent Kansas City from hitting enough doubles to generate offense?
Kansas City will certainly need one of its arms to outduel one of Milwaukee’s aces in a contest. Do they have what it takes?
Prediction: Nobody has scored on Milwaukee yet, and Kansas City won’t be able to do so for more than a couple of games. Milwaukee will punctuate the most wins in PBA history with a World Series win. Brewers 4-1.