Post by mikereds on May 10, 2022 20:31:14 GMT -5
PBA AL West
1) Seattle Mariners
2027: 98-64, AL West Champion. Lost to Royals 4-0 (series) in divisional round.
Looking Back: A strong pitching performance by the Mariners (they finished 2nd in runs allowed) and a bit of luck (+6 in Pythagorean differential) allowed the Mariners to dominate the AL West for a playoff berth. But they had the misfortune of drawing the Royals who promptly swept them. Young starting pitcher Tomito Kawamoto began the prime of his career with an impressive 3.57 ERA and his first All-Star selection. The team used a bullpen-by-commitee approach (no player had more than 15 saves) and this was a tactic that really worked for the M's - reliever David Solis even managed a sterling 11-0 record with 3 saves. Part of the key to the Mariners success was the continued strong production of their middle infield in 2B Ivan Johnson and SS Lucius Fox, who where formidable both on the field and at the plate. But yet, the Mariners still seemed to lack a piece or two to compete with the big boys in the playoffs.
On the Farm: The farm system is pretty low as far as raw numbers and the interim staff is waiting to fill out most of their ranks at the start of season. Outfield speedster and 2026 1st round pick Andres Reyna hasn't looked too bad at the A/A+ levels. Scouting discovery pitchers Yin-Tou King and Sjoerd Vries could become okay starters but will need a lot more seasoning in the lower minors. In the international complex, 16-year old Loeck Swinkels is one of the best young catcher/DH prospects in the entire PBA. There are few standouts and little depth in this system though, so the eventual new manager has some work ahead of him and will need to give his scouting staff better resources and direction.
Best Case Scenario: The pitchers kick it up another notch from 2027 and keep the Mariners in playoff contention despite whatever happens with the lineup, and a few of the AA/AAA promotions blossom immediately.
Worst Case Scenario: The team sinks to sub .500 status with shaky interim management and without the veteran presence of Flores and Gurriel.
2) Texas Rangers
2027: 84-78
Offseason Review: The Rangers opted to get younger in the bullpen, releasing a quarter of mid 30's relievers in Alex Claudio, Zach Burdi, Emilio Pagan and Mark Appel. They also let veteran 3B Jurickson Profar and Anthony Rendon test the market elsewhere. To help fill the void at 3B, Texas plucked solid corner infielder Juan Abarca away from Milwaukee in the Rule V Draft. Looking to improve their infield defense, the Rangers signed SS Luis V Garcia to a 8 year, $68 million contract. The Rangers likely return their full starting rotation from last year and will just need to rework their bullpen a bit with Taiwan power reliever Ghi-Cheng Der remaining as the top candidate to earn saves.
On the Farm: The Rangers may be grooming AAA pitcher Terry Miller for starting rotation consideration, but Miller needs to continue to work on his control first. 2026 draft pick SP Mike Burgener is basically in the same situation. SP Jeremy Sherman struggled with a 3-21 record at AA and should be doing much better with his arsenal of quality pitches. It might be a make or break year for him. Texas focused on starting pitching with the 2027 draft, and Chris Gaspar, Curtis McDowell and Ryan Lee all likely look to refine their skills in the A/A+ level before progressing. 19-year old infielder Luis Torres has great speed and a high ceiling as a hitter but will need a lot of seasoning. The Rangers have a duo or international talents at 3B in Antonio Naterra and Juan Navarro to bring along slowly. The farm is okay in spots, but could use some rounding out - the catcher and outfield positions do not seem to be a strength.
Best Case Scenario: The Rangers re-assume control of the AL West with Seattle's management in disarray, and then maybe the starting pitching excels enough to make a postseason run.
Worst Case Scenario: The bullpen with a lot of new faces fails to hold leads and the team regresses to around the .500 level.
Key Questions:
3) Houston Astros
2027: 75-87
Looking Back: The Astros had a disappointing 2027, posting their second worst win-loss record in the PBA era. Jonathan Lawhorn perhaps was the Astro who struggled the most, getting demoted to AAA for a good chunk of the season as a result of a -0.5 WAR and a career low .672 OPS. Starter Jorge "Phantom" Ontiveros also had his worst season as a pro, generating 17 losses and a league-leading 96 walks. In contrast, talented Japanese RF Ichisake Ochiai led the league in 97 walks drawn and powered the team with a career high 115 RBI's. Ochiai's efforts earned him a Silver Slugger award in 2027. Young righty Jeff Morrison proved to be the most capable starter, with a 3.79 ERA, 3.56 FIP and 4.2 WAR. The bullpen was fairly ordinary and no hurler managed a sub 3.00 ERA. 34-year old SS Dansby Swanson was a productive mainstay with a .283 batting average and 701 plate appearances. But the Astros will likely need more help in 2028 to rebound and try for a winning record again.
Offseason Review: The Astros opted to cut a bit of salary and let some moderate veteran talent depart this off-season via free agency. Lefty catcher Wyatt Cross departed and has subsequently signed with the Pirates. 30-something bullpen arms are always on the move and that was the case with John Gavin (3.24 2027 ERA), Robert Gsellman (3.02 2027 ERA) and Cionel Perez (4.12 2027 ERA). The Astros weren't impacted by the Rule V draft (either signing or losing anyone). The Astros did sign IF Joshua Lowe in free agency and inked him to a 2-year $23 million contract. But in all, it was quite a low-key off-season for Houston, much to the chagrin of fans who were hoping for some more injection of talent and a return to winning. Houston might yet sign some free agents, but probably don't have the wherewithal to be big spenders.
On the Farm: 2025 2nd round pick SP Tyler Charles seems to have the talent but has been unable to put it together so far in AA. SP Mike Caruso has been faring a little better at A+, but also needs to make strides. Former Red Sox prospect 3B Pedro Martinez is earning his stripes at the A level and needs to develop power. There aren't many other bright spots in the Astros minors, nor their international complex. It's a competent farm system but has room for improvement.
Best Case Scenario: Lawhorn and Ontiveros rebound and the Astros get some other nice contributions to clear the .500 mark. Playoffs are still very iffy.
4) Oakland A's
2027: 71-91
Looking Back: The A's season 2027 featured the heroics of young phenom CF Juan Castoreno. The Venezuelan star powered the team with 42 HR, 108 RBI and a second straight all-star slot. But no one else in the lineup came anywhere close to matching Juan's production, and the team's record suffered as a result and finished second lowest in runs scored in the AL. The team pitching didn't fare much better, posting a 5.08 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Statistically, the A's were fortunate to clear the 70 win mark and could have easily placed much worse. Aging starter Dan Straily had a hard-luck season and finished with an AL-leading 19 losses. But on the positive side, another Venezuelan in pitcher Alfredo Medina began to emerge and posted a solid 3.30 ERA in 79 innings. His workload in 2028 will likely increase as the A's try to rebound and put more talent around him and Castoreno.
Offseason Review: In February the A's signed free agent infielder Shane Benes, who had been a reliable fixture in Washington. Benes is known for his leadership and has 3 golden gloves in his trophy case. The Rule V Draft was a frenzy for A's. The A's lost 3 infielders but drafted 6 pitchers and a 1B. Of these players, reliever Zach Diaz looks like the most ready to play in the pros. The others will likely be hit and miss in 2028. Infielder Jeter Downs was lost in free agency to the Red Sox. Outfielder Larry Ernesto, infielder/DH Jayson Gonzalez, 2B Raul Mondesi and relievers Alex Colome and Mike Morin also completed their contracts and now belong to other teams. In 2028, Oakland is clearly freeing up some spots and letting their youth and Rule 5 picks get lots of opportunity and letting the chips fall where they may.
On the Farm: The A's farm isn't regarded as the PBA's greatest, but it has very nice depth and no shortage of talent spread across many positions. Pitchers Steve Arb, Andy Longo and Josh Faulkner were drafted by the A's with first round picks and are developing nicely. At least one of them should be all-star material sometime down the road. 18-year CF Norbert Kuik has nice upside. And C Sandor Van Herwaarden could be on the verge of a major league callup in 2028. The international complex is looking kind of sparse though and the A's scouting staff will need to replenish their worldwide connections.
Best Case Scenario: The A's seemed to underachieve last year. They're a dark horse to rebound to the .500 mark. Anything better is pretty hard to imagine, for now.
5) Los Angeles Angels
2027: 49-113
Offseason Review: The fans were crushed to see home run titan Patrick Leonard leave in free agency and join the Cardinals. Lefties starting pitchers SP Zac Lowther and Dietrich Enns both left in free agency. They still remain unsigned, so possibly they could rejoin the Angels for less. In February, the Angels signed journeyman SP Robert Stephenson to patch up their rotation, to the tune of $50mil over 4 years. SP Felix Jorge, who sat out 2027, was signed to an affordable one-year deal to see if he can resurrect his career. OF Luis Basabe and CL Kyle Barraclough exercised contract options to remain with the Angels. Reliever Matt McMahan, select by the Rays, was the only casualty in the Rule V Draft.
On The Farm: Power hitting OF Shalom Pronk shows promise, but needs to get more at-bats in the minors. 2025 second-rounder SP Tony Spencer needs to improve his control and stuff or he won't be able to crack the majors. 2024 1st overall pick 1B Luis Acosta is struggling in the lower minors and it's certainly disappointing considering his draft status. The Angels international complex has a lot of bodies but lefty SP Jesus Corniel could have star potential. But he's 20 and needs to get his shot in the farm ASAP. The Angels has some nice players here and there in their farm, but the system may need better structuring and planning to help the Angels dig out of the cellar.
Worst Case Scenario: The Angels are further depressed following the absence of Leonard and carve out new levels of futility in PBA history. The Angels franchise low is 45 wins for those of you keeping score at home.
The AL West continues to be one of the PBA's subpar divisions. The Rangers are a proven winning organization, but it would be a stretch to consider them a PBA superpower. The Mariners took the AL West pennant in 2027, but as of this writing they are in need of new management and their future is pretty hazy. The Angels continue to pile up losses and frustrate their fans. It's tough to see the division generating much momentum in 2028 unless there are serious surprises.
1) Seattle Mariners
2027: 98-64, AL West Champion. Lost to Royals 4-0 (series) in divisional round.
Looking Back: A strong pitching performance by the Mariners (they finished 2nd in runs allowed) and a bit of luck (+6 in Pythagorean differential) allowed the Mariners to dominate the AL West for a playoff berth. But they had the misfortune of drawing the Royals who promptly swept them. Young starting pitcher Tomito Kawamoto began the prime of his career with an impressive 3.57 ERA and his first All-Star selection. The team used a bullpen-by-commitee approach (no player had more than 15 saves) and this was a tactic that really worked for the M's - reliever David Solis even managed a sterling 11-0 record with 3 saves. Part of the key to the Mariners success was the continued strong production of their middle infield in 2B Ivan Johnson and SS Lucius Fox, who where formidable both on the field and at the plate. But yet, the Mariners still seemed to lack a piece or two to compete with the big boys in the playoffs.
Offseason Review: Mariners manager Dave left the team and ownership is taking their time selecting a proper replacement. This has brought the franchise to a bit of a stand still and fans are starting to worry. The situation certainly isn't helping ticket sales. On the farm, Seattle lost solid young Canadian pitcher Jarod Widdison in the Rule V draft. The team let aging corner infielders Wilmer Flores and Lourdes Gurriel walk away in free agency. This move freed up significant budget space but may have taken some confidence out of the locker room. Lefty reliever Zach Britton retired after a single year with the team. The remaining majority of the 2027 cast remains the same, and as of this writing no free agents have been signed and the interim staff has opted to promote from within until new management is introduced. In addition, the team has current vacancies at pitching and hitting coach and base coaches at the major league level.
On the Farm: The farm system is pretty low as far as raw numbers and the interim staff is waiting to fill out most of their ranks at the start of season. Outfield speedster and 2026 1st round pick Andres Reyna hasn't looked too bad at the A/A+ levels. Scouting discovery pitchers Yin-Tou King and Sjoerd Vries could become okay starters but will need a lot more seasoning in the lower minors. In the international complex, 16-year old Loeck Swinkels is one of the best young catcher/DH prospects in the entire PBA. There are few standouts and little depth in this system though, so the eventual new manager has some work ahead of him and will need to give his scouting staff better resources and direction.
Best Case Scenario: The pitchers kick it up another notch from 2027 and keep the Mariners in playoff contention despite whatever happens with the lineup, and a few of the AA/AAA promotions blossom immediately.
Worst Case Scenario: The team sinks to sub .500 status with shaky interim management and without the veteran presence of Flores and Gurriel.
Key Questions:
Who wants to become the Seattle manager, and what is taking owner Josh Lincoln so long to fill the void? Are real estate prices in Seattle scaring off prospective hires?
Does young stud pitcher Tomito Kawamoto have an encore performance in him, or is a bit of regression due?
2) Texas Rangers
2027: 84-78
Looking Back: The Rangers surrendered their usual AL West pennant to the Mariners in 2027, but at least stayed strong enough to finish above .500. It's hard to pinpoint why the Rangers fell short. It does seem like their older core of players age 30 and older maybe experienced a bit of a decline - or at the very least had pedestrian seasons. Except for 2B Ozzie Albies, who hit a stellar .331 and earned both the Silver Slugger and the Gold Glove at his position, sporting a solid 6.2 WAR. Former Cy Young winner Esteban Valadez was a clear ace again and finished with a 16-6 record. But the rest of the rotation really struggled, with all of them sporting ERA's well over 5.00 and other bad indicators. Star CF Raimfer Salinas led the offense and put together another solid campaign and is a nice piece to build around, but maybe last year the roster age showed and in 2028 maybe Salinas needs to see a bit more promising youth in the lineup along with him to make a run.
Offseason Review: The Rangers opted to get younger in the bullpen, releasing a quarter of mid 30's relievers in Alex Claudio, Zach Burdi, Emilio Pagan and Mark Appel. They also let veteran 3B Jurickson Profar and Anthony Rendon test the market elsewhere. To help fill the void at 3B, Texas plucked solid corner infielder Juan Abarca away from Milwaukee in the Rule V Draft. Looking to improve their infield defense, the Rangers signed SS Luis V Garcia to a 8 year, $68 million contract. The Rangers likely return their full starting rotation from last year and will just need to rework their bullpen a bit with Taiwan power reliever Ghi-Cheng Der remaining as the top candidate to earn saves.
On the Farm: The Rangers may be grooming AAA pitcher Terry Miller for starting rotation consideration, but Miller needs to continue to work on his control first. 2026 draft pick SP Mike Burgener is basically in the same situation. SP Jeremy Sherman struggled with a 3-21 record at AA and should be doing much better with his arsenal of quality pitches. It might be a make or break year for him. Texas focused on starting pitching with the 2027 draft, and Chris Gaspar, Curtis McDowell and Ryan Lee all likely look to refine their skills in the A/A+ level before progressing. 19-year old infielder Luis Torres has great speed and a high ceiling as a hitter but will need a lot of seasoning. The Rangers have a duo or international talents at 3B in Antonio Naterra and Juan Navarro to bring along slowly. The farm is okay in spots, but could use some rounding out - the catcher and outfield positions do not seem to be a strength.
Best Case Scenario: The Rangers re-assume control of the AL West with Seattle's management in disarray, and then maybe the starting pitching excels enough to make a postseason run.
Worst Case Scenario: The bullpen with a lot of new faces fails to hold leads and the team regresses to around the .500 level.
Key Questions:
Will shortstop Carlos Correa see a lot more at-bats at DH with the signing of the defensively superior Garcia?
Will there be a youth movement in the bullpen, or will the Rangers seek to sign a crop of veteran free agents as the season commences?
2027: 75-87
Looking Back: The Astros had a disappointing 2027, posting their second worst win-loss record in the PBA era. Jonathan Lawhorn perhaps was the Astro who struggled the most, getting demoted to AAA for a good chunk of the season as a result of a -0.5 WAR and a career low .672 OPS. Starter Jorge "Phantom" Ontiveros also had his worst season as a pro, generating 17 losses and a league-leading 96 walks. In contrast, talented Japanese RF Ichisake Ochiai led the league in 97 walks drawn and powered the team with a career high 115 RBI's. Ochiai's efforts earned him a Silver Slugger award in 2027. Young righty Jeff Morrison proved to be the most capable starter, with a 3.79 ERA, 3.56 FIP and 4.2 WAR. The bullpen was fairly ordinary and no hurler managed a sub 3.00 ERA. 34-year old SS Dansby Swanson was a productive mainstay with a .283 batting average and 701 plate appearances. But the Astros will likely need more help in 2028 to rebound and try for a winning record again.
Offseason Review: The Astros opted to cut a bit of salary and let some moderate veteran talent depart this off-season via free agency. Lefty catcher Wyatt Cross departed and has subsequently signed with the Pirates. 30-something bullpen arms are always on the move and that was the case with John Gavin (3.24 2027 ERA), Robert Gsellman (3.02 2027 ERA) and Cionel Perez (4.12 2027 ERA). The Astros weren't impacted by the Rule V draft (either signing or losing anyone). The Astros did sign IF Joshua Lowe in free agency and inked him to a 2-year $23 million contract. But in all, it was quite a low-key off-season for Houston, much to the chagrin of fans who were hoping for some more injection of talent and a return to winning. Houston might yet sign some free agents, but probably don't have the wherewithal to be big spenders.
On the Farm: 2025 2nd round pick SP Tyler Charles seems to have the talent but has been unable to put it together so far in AA. SP Mike Caruso has been faring a little better at A+, but also needs to make strides. Former Red Sox prospect 3B Pedro Martinez is earning his stripes at the A level and needs to develop power. There aren't many other bright spots in the Astros minors, nor their international complex. It's a competent farm system but has room for improvement.
Best Case Scenario: Lawhorn and Ontiveros rebound and the Astros get some other nice contributions to clear the .500 mark. Playoffs are still very iffy.
Worst Case Scenario: Lowe continues his 2027 swan dive, the Astros lacked other signings to keep up with the rest of AL and their record takes a 10-game hit in 2028.
Key Questions:
Will impressive lefty reliever Ryan Cain finally make his major league debut at 26?
Will impressive lefty reliever Ryan Cain finally make his major league debut at 26?
The Astros bought low on former Royal Joshua Lowe who had a disastrous 2027 pro season hitting .116 in 148 AB. Will the gamble pay off and will Lowe prove the Royals wrong?
4) Oakland A's
2027: 71-91
Looking Back: The A's season 2027 featured the heroics of young phenom CF Juan Castoreno. The Venezuelan star powered the team with 42 HR, 108 RBI and a second straight all-star slot. But no one else in the lineup came anywhere close to matching Juan's production, and the team's record suffered as a result and finished second lowest in runs scored in the AL. The team pitching didn't fare much better, posting a 5.08 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Statistically, the A's were fortunate to clear the 70 win mark and could have easily placed much worse. Aging starter Dan Straily had a hard-luck season and finished with an AL-leading 19 losses. But on the positive side, another Venezuelan in pitcher Alfredo Medina began to emerge and posted a solid 3.30 ERA in 79 innings. His workload in 2028 will likely increase as the A's try to rebound and put more talent around him and Castoreno.
Offseason Review: In February the A's signed free agent infielder Shane Benes, who had been a reliable fixture in Washington. Benes is known for his leadership and has 3 golden gloves in his trophy case. The Rule V Draft was a frenzy for A's. The A's lost 3 infielders but drafted 6 pitchers and a 1B. Of these players, reliever Zach Diaz looks like the most ready to play in the pros. The others will likely be hit and miss in 2028. Infielder Jeter Downs was lost in free agency to the Red Sox. Outfielder Larry Ernesto, infielder/DH Jayson Gonzalez, 2B Raul Mondesi and relievers Alex Colome and Mike Morin also completed their contracts and now belong to other teams. In 2028, Oakland is clearly freeing up some spots and letting their youth and Rule 5 picks get lots of opportunity and letting the chips fall where they may.
On the Farm: The A's farm isn't regarded as the PBA's greatest, but it has very nice depth and no shortage of talent spread across many positions. Pitchers Steve Arb, Andy Longo and Josh Faulkner were drafted by the A's with first round picks and are developing nicely. At least one of them should be all-star material sometime down the road. 18-year CF Norbert Kuik has nice upside. And C Sandor Van Herwaarden could be on the verge of a major league callup in 2028. The international complex is looking kind of sparse though and the A's scouting staff will need to replenish their worldwide connections.
Best Case Scenario: The A's seemed to underachieve last year. They're a dark horse to rebound to the .500 mark. Anything better is pretty hard to imagine, for now.
Worst Case Scenario: If most of the Rule V drafts falter badly it could really hurt the A's progress. Still, based on the depth and youth of their team, it seems like 70 wins is the floor.
Key Questions:
In addition to the other pitchers on the farm, former Astros prospect SP Angel Garcia is looking very solid. Can he make it to AA this year, or will he be groomed slowly?
Does Corey Knebel still have enough to retain the closer's role? Their have been rumors that the 36-year old is feeling unmotivated and this could be one of his last years in the majors.
Will other A's hitters offer Castoreno enough protection in the lineup?
5) Los Angeles Angels
2027: 49-113
Looking Back: The Angels continued their residence in the AL basement with a 49 win season. It was a slight improvement over 2026, but the fans and aging owner Artie Moreno are not sure how much more they can endure. But the fans still in attendance were entertained by the efforts of DH Patrick Leonard, who poured in an AL-leading 57 homers and also drove in 132 runs. It was amazing what Leonard managed to achieve with virtually no protection in the lineup. All other Angels finished well below Leonard's .280 batting average and only 2 managed to surpass the 50 RBI mark. The team's pitching wasn't as bad as you might think, but the lack of run support doomed them. The Angels seemed to try a lot of different starting pitchers in 2027 as 11 Angels started 8 or more games. Young righty Jeff Steed showed some progress in his second pro season, but was inhibited by a lack of run support and competent defense, particularly in the outfield.
Offseason Review: The fans were crushed to see home run titan Patrick Leonard leave in free agency and join the Cardinals. Lefties starting pitchers SP Zac Lowther and Dietrich Enns both left in free agency. They still remain unsigned, so possibly they could rejoin the Angels for less. In February, the Angels signed journeyman SP Robert Stephenson to patch up their rotation, to the tune of $50mil over 4 years. SP Felix Jorge, who sat out 2027, was signed to an affordable one-year deal to see if he can resurrect his career. OF Luis Basabe and CL Kyle Barraclough exercised contract options to remain with the Angels. Reliever Matt McMahan, select by the Rays, was the only casualty in the Rule V Draft.
On The Farm: Power hitting OF Shalom Pronk shows promise, but needs to get more at-bats in the minors. 2025 second-rounder SP Tony Spencer needs to improve his control and stuff or he won't be able to crack the majors. 2024 1st overall pick 1B Luis Acosta is struggling in the lower minors and it's certainly disappointing considering his draft status. The Angels international complex has a lot of bodies but lefty SP Jesus Corniel could have star potential. But he's 20 and needs to get his shot in the farm ASAP. The Angels has some nice players here and there in their farm, but the system may need better structuring and planning to help the Angels dig out of the cellar.
Best Case Scenario: The Angels could clear the 60-win mark if Murrin adapts quickly to the majors and the Angels get lucky with their other pitchers. But 60 wins is still a long way from .500.
Key Questions:
Why was 2027 second overall SP Mike Murrin rushed to the majors for a losing ball club last year (9 games started, 8.39 ERA)? Will Murrin's development be able to recover?
Who will step up and replace Leonard's power and RBI's? Will the Angels offense reach historic lows?
The Angels have the #1 overall 2028 pick, and the top pick in basically every round. Can the Angels put together a nice draft and revamp their farm system?