Post by stlgm on May 15, 2022 10:09:16 GMT -5
Over the past four seasons, the Braves, Mets, Nationals, and Phillies have taken turns with each team winning the division title once. Does that mean this is the Marlins year? Probably not. In fact, the Braves are the favorites to be the first back-to-back NL East champs since the Phillies did it in 2023 and 2024. But after a very quiet offseason in Atlanta, the Mets and Phillies have hopes of making Atlanta pay for resting on their laurels. Let's take a few minutes to break down the NL East for 2028!
1.) Atlanta Braves
1st place, 98-64, NL East champion, lost to Milwaukee (4-0) in the NLCS
Looking Back: The Braves' 2027 was something to celebrate as the team won it's first NL East title since PBA's inception. They finished the year just shy of 100 wins and made it to the NLCS before running into the buzzsaw that is Milwaukee. Juan "Doorbell" Gestoso won the league MVP award while triple slashing .325/.348/.505 and finishing with an 8.4 WAR. Doorbell carried an otherwise below average lineup. The team finished middle of the pack or worst in nearly every offensive statistic besides SB, BB, and OBP. But the pitching staff was electric throughout, finishing second in the league in runs allowed to just the aforementioned Brewers. The starting staff showed no weaknesses, led by Pat Cypert who went 14-5 with a 3.20 ERA in 183 innings. Brian Villaneuve did his best to replace Trevor Rogers, leading the league with 41 saves, but also leading the NL in blown saves with nine.
Offseason Review: Reviewing the Braves offseason is both simple and confusing, as they have done literally nothing. They are stretched thin financially, and as such made no additions to the team. Technically they lost Joe Martin to retirement, but this was forced due to an injury last summer. For better or worse, the Braves will run it back with the same squad that won the 2027 NL East.
On the Farm: The good news for Atlanta is even though they have budget concerns, they still have a talented farm that could help them lose payroll and stay competitive in the long term. PBA America ranks the Braves farm system as #15 in the league, featuring five top 100 prospects. The group is led by middle infielder Paul Mowry. Mowry's glove is probably best suited for second base, but he brings 30-plus homer power which makes him a rarity at that position. The Braves also have three pitchers in their top five; Jeremy Sprow, Luis Mendoza, and Walter Trahan. These four all are likely not to hit the majors until the turn of the decade. Their best prospect that's about ready for the bigs is Kwi-tae Yook. Yook inexplicably was dropped from AAA ball in 2026 to rookie ball in 2027, where he hit 29 home runs in 307 PA, posting an absurd 1.716 OPS.
Best Case Scenario: This young, talented Braves team builds on last season's breakthrough season and contends for the NL Pennant.
Worst Case Scenario: Gestoso and the pitching staff burn out on carrying the team, and they flame out just short of the playoffs.
Key Questions
With the team so close to the World Series, why the lack of attempt to improve the roster at all from last season?
What was the strategy behind Kwi-tae Yook being sent to Rookie Ball last season?
2.) Philadelphia Phillies
4th place, 77-85
Looking Back: Philadelphia missed the postseason for the third straight season, and finished below .500 for the first time since 2019. The team did finish second in the league in home runs, but it didn't translate to the offensive success that you'd expect, as they finished middle of the pack in runs scored and nearly every other offensive metric. Seth Beer led the way for the Phillies, slugging 50 home runs and posting an impressive 174 wRC+ en route to the league's Platinum Stick Award. Bobby Witt also had another strong year, while the youngsters Isaiah High, Bobby Siegel, and Luis Morales played well after being called up to give the Philly faithful hope that the future is bright for the lineup. The pitching staff didn't show the same hope. Free agent acquisition T.J. Zeuch was the star of the staff, but quickly became trade bait when it was apparent this wasn't Philadelphia's year. Youngsters Doug Dombrowski and Jay Tudor showed promise, but had a bit of a roller coaster of a season.
Offseason Review: The Phillies added veteran starter Michael Bates to fill the T.J. Zeuch role. They also signed OF Mike Siani from Baltimore and acquired defensive specialist C Carlos Soto from Milwaukee via trade. None of these moves are likely to move the needle for the team. On the flip side, they lost 3B Joe DeCarlo to free agency as expected after they failed to trade him the previous season. Free agent disappointment SP Griffin Canning also left the team via free agency. This Phillies team seems content on continuing their rebuild through the farm.
On the Farm: ...and what a promising farm it is. The group is headlined by projected future ace Alex Valencia. Valencia threw 65 strikeouts in 57 innings for the Philadelphia Double A team, while posting a 2.67 ERA. It's expected he will start the season in Lehigh, but could find his way to the big leagues this summer. Further down the line, the Phillies have middle infielder Charles Galimberti in A-ball that was basically gifted to them from division rival Miami. Galimberti is probably best suited for second base, but could play either position and projects to be what every team dreams of in a #2 hitter. Galimberti projects to be apart of the All-30's team when it's announced in 15 years. As for the 2028, expect OF Alex Agurre and C Juan Herrera to break camp with the big league team and get their fair share of reps in 2028.
Best Case Scenario: The youth movement gels and creates an energy that keeps Philadelphia competitive, and a July Valencia call up pushes them into Wild Card contention.
Worst Case Scenario: The team goes through the type of growing pains that happen when it it's full of rookies and second year players, and they struggle to get back to .500 in 2028.
Key Questions
Phillies fans aren't known for their patience, what does the timetable look like for Alex Valencia to join the big league club?
Seth Beer is a fan favorite, but also is now on the other side of 30 on a team that's likely a couple seasons away from contending. What discussions have taken place within the organization about possibly moving Beer to further stock the farm?
3.) New York Mets
3rd place, 83-79
Looking Back: The Mets followed their surprising 2026 playoff run with a solid season even if it was a step back. The pitching remained dominant, finishing just a tick behind Atlanta for third best in the NL. Youngster Ryan Beyer was downright dominant in his sophomore season, posting a 2.68 ERA and 12.6 K/9 rate in 171 innings. Shohei Otani also proved that his 2026 revival was no fluke with a great 2027 as the Mets #2. Unfortunately, the offense couldn't keep up. They ranked bottom three in the NL in team runs, batting average, OBP, SLG, and just about any other meaningful offensive statistic. The one bright spot in the lineup was rookie second basemen Tomaz Espassandim. "Cannibal" won the National League Platinum Stick award at second base and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting after hitting 27 home runs and posting an .806 OPS. The Mets still finished the season above .500, avoiding a huge step back and giving them something to build on in 2028.
Offseason Review: The Mets are under new management and have been active this offseason. Manager Morneau brought with him Christian Arroyo from Tampa Bay, and added pitcher-friendly catcher Austin Hedges to the mix. The Mets also acquired SS Jacob Amaya from St. Louis and 2B Hyo-jun Park in free agency to be the new duo in the middle of the infield. Unfortunately for the Mets, the biggest offseason news story actually took place in Spring Training when Ryan Beyer torn his rotator cuff. The young ace is on the shelf for at least the first four months of the season, which will make it an uphill climb for the Mets to take another step forward.
On the Farm: The good news for the Mets is as deflating as the Meyer injury is, they have a farm with prospects ready to step in. Luis Ortiz and Liam Thomas both should have a big league impact in 2028, and could break Spring Training with the team. Thomas is likely the more well-rounded of the two. He has four plus-pitches to choose from and a personality that will keep everyone upbeat through the ups and downs of a season. He did struggle in Spring Training though, so it remains to be seen if the Mets will let him work through the growing pains in the majors or give him a little more time in Triple A. Ortiz was stellar in the World Cup and in Spring Training and has shown he can handle big league batters. However he's still just a two pitch pony, so the bullpen will likely be his destination until he can locate his change up. Two prospects to keep your eyes on are 1B/DH Josh Bonham and CF Ed Pinay. They're both 2-3 seasons away, but project to be game changing bats in the 2030s.
Best Case Scenario: Liam Thomas fills in Beyer's spot and keeps the team on track from last year until Beyer returns and pushes them into the Wild Card.
Worst Case Scenario: Beyer's injury, rookie pitching, and a lacking offense that wasn't upgraded in the offseason sends this franchise back and a step and they finish below .500.
Key Questions
The Mets have the pitching staff to be a contender, but the offense hasn't supported that. The offseason moves seemed to be more directed towards defense than offense. What is the strategy to get the Mets to build on their back-to-back winning seasons and contend in 2028?
Shohei Otani has had at least 200 plate appearances in each of the last five seasons, yet received just one plate appearance in Spring Training. What is Otani's future in New York as a two-way player?
4.) Washington Nationals
2nd place, 88-74, Wild Card team, lost to Milwaukee (4-0) in the NLDS
Looking Back: The Nationals used their league leading payroll to sneak into the postseason as the second Wild Card and upset the Dodgers before being swept by the Brewers in the NLDS. Eric Pena again led the league in strikeouts with 300, while going 17-3 with a 2.19 ERA. The pitching staff otherwise struggled, with the next closest starter finishing with a 4.36 ERA. Offensively, the team was led by the veteran star Bryce Harper, and up and coming star Bob Beasley. Perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout looked as if father time had finally caught up to him. His .354 OBP was still impressive by regular standards, but well below his normal and he finished with a WAR of just 0.7.
Offseason Review: Oof. Much like the Atlanta Braves, the Nationals have done nothing this offseason. The difference is, the Nats had key pending free agents, and around $25 million to spend. Overall, the Nationals let five members of their starting lineup walk in FA, headlined by Bryce Harper signing with Cleveland. In addition, they lost nearly their entire team up the middle, with 2B Shane Benes signing with Oakland, SS Luis V. Garcia signing with Texas, and CF Victor Robles meeting with teams this week on a new deal.
On the Farm: It doesn't appear help is coming from the Nationals minor league system either. Their top prospect is 3B Steven Reed. Reed has lots of pop if he makes contact, but you're as likely to get a souvenir if you sit in the left field bleachers as you are in the first row behind first base when he's playing as his strong arm doesn't usually get the ball to it's target. SP Benedito Facamelo is the team's next ranked prospect, but his confidence has to be shot after losing 17 games in Double A. He has yet to develop the changeup that he's going to need to make it at the next level.
Best Case Scenario: $69 million man Mike Trout has a nice bounce back season, and Eric Pena learns to play shortstop on his days off to keep the Nationals competitive.
Worst Case Scenario: Washington hits rock bottom. They struggle to keep Miami out of the cellar and it forces a seismic roster turnover.
Key Questions
With only nine position players on the big league roster and less than a week until opening day, what's the plan to fill all of the roster gaps?
As a squad with many holes and little financial flexibility for 2028, at what point do we see a full tear down mode that sends Pena out of Washington?
5.) Miami Marlins
Last place, 61-101
Looking Back: The Marlins improved by 19 games in 2027 from the previous season, finishing the season 61-101. The offense continued to struggle, finishing dead last in the NL in runs scored. It would have been worse, but the Marlins finally pulled the trigger on benching C David Garcia which led to new starter Jim Dathe leading the team in OPS and being the Marlins lone All Star. OF Joe White also showed promise, finishing second on the team with a 2.7 WAR and winning the NL Gold Glove award in left field. The pitching staff continued to struggle, posting a negative WAR as a team. 18 game loser Tim Cate was probably the best starter as his 4.00 ERA, 4.37 FIP, and 2.0 WAR were all pretty average.
Offseason Review: As is the theme with many teams, the Marlins have done nothing in the offseason. The good news is they haven't lost any key pieces either, although it could be argued their wasn't much to lose.
On the Farm: The Marlins farm is mind-blowingly thin following years of top picks. PBA America has their farm system ranked 27th out of 30 teams. The team's top rated prospect is 2027 first round pick Chad Schaut. Schaut has jaw dropping stuff but still struggles with throwing the ball over the plate. Following just one poor season in rookie ball, Miami currently has Schaut apart of their Triple A roster. A prospect to keep your eye on is Justin Hanberry. Hanberry was selected in the 24th round of the 2026 draft, but scouts have raved about his pinpoint accuracy and he has worked hard to develop a four pitch repertoire. He just turned 20 years old last month, and with so much development already shown, it wouldn't be surprising if he's a top half of the rotation type of pitcher in 2-3 seasons in the PBA.
Best Case Scenario: Bringing back the same group as last season, maybe the Fish can use that chemistry to get under 100 losses and push Washington into the cellar of the NL East.
Worst Case Scenario: The Marlins continue to be the Marlins and eclipse 100 losses again. Miami residents get louder about wishing the Santiago De Cuba Avispas could just replace that Marlins in the PBA.
Key Questions
What is the message to Miami residents that are restless about the fact that after four consecutive 100+ loss seasons, the Marlins appeared to have done nothing to improve the team and don't have talent in the minors to give them hope for the future?
One year later, what are your thoughts on trading the #1 overall pick to Kansas City so the Royals could take consensus best player and future ace, SP Vincente Corado?
