Post by Commissioner Erick on Aug 13, 2022 13:21:30 GMT -5
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians
This year’s AL Wild Card Game will be tarnished by bad blood and absentee stars. The product on the field may result in one of the more underwhelming games we’ve seen in some time, but the passion among the players and fanbases may be at an all-time high. Cleveland’s Triple Crown winner Josh Woodward allowed a two-run home run to Pai Khan in the fifth inning of Saturday’s game. He got to 0-2 on the next batter, Eric Drouet, then fired one up and in towards Drouet’s head. Rattlesnake turned away and got hit in the shoulder, but aggrieved by Woodward’s reckless pitching after Khan’s home run, he announced his displeasure by charging the mound and igniting the brawl.
Most people with knowledge of the situation believe Woodward was more frustrated with Drouet’s inability to strike out and sent a message about Drouet standing on top of the plate. Either way, Drouet will miss the game, as will Woodward, leaving the teams without their two stars. Luis Retana will likely miss the game for personal reasons, Travis Crombie may not pitch because of a shoulder strain. It will be a war of attrition to see who moves on to face Boston and who stays home. A shame, because Toronto is back in the playoffs after a short drought, and still has some of the core of its 2024 title team. Cleveland is on the rise, but could be considered the AL favorite at full strength, but a poor finish leaves them in a do-or-die situation.
Cleveland Offense versus Toronto Pitching
Cleveland was fourth in offense with a lineup that led the league in home runs. Their best player, Luis Retana, will likely miss today’s game for personal reasons. Retana hit 21 home runs with a .975 OPS this year, batting .333 in the process. Nonie Williams will take Retana’s place, and while the backup is fantastic against lefties, Williams has struggled against right-handed pitching his entire career.
That tempers Cleveland’s lineup, giving it less high-end ability, less of the power that drives the team’s offense, and making the Indians relatively weak at getting on base. Furthermore, the team will only have three hitters who bat left-handed in the lineup—veteran star Bryce Harper, doubles maestro Austin Meadows, and the aforementioned Williams.
Harper hit 30 long balls, while Danny Knoch and Lourdes Gurriel each hit at least 26, so Cleveland still has a few players who can run into things. Also, only Javier Baez is a negative hitter in the lineup. Lesser bats like Julian Infante and Federico Anziani get base hits or club doubles. Still, Cleveland will face an excellent starter for Toronto with one fewer club in the bag.
That starter is Danny Richardson, one of the best command-and-control arms in baseball. Richardson was sixth in AL walk rate among pitchers with 100 innings, backing that up with a .267 BABIP. As a result, he seldom allowed baserunners, working to a league-leading 1.04 WHIP. He also gets good movement, so hitters didn’t compensate with cheap home runs. Richardson allowed just 15 on the year. Richardson also really pulverizes righties, with a fastball-sinker combination that eats their bats inside. It held righties to a .199 average with seven home runs in 237 Plate Appearances. Cleveland’s lineup is predominantly right-handed, a key reason Richardson went 5.1 shutout against them in July in his only start of the year against Cleveland.
Toronto’s bullpen only has one left-handed arm, a fact that should help them against Cleveland. The Blue Jays don’t have the best bullpen as it was only ninth in bullpen ERA in the regular season. There’s only one spectacular arm in the bullpen, and a lot of pretty okay arms.
Travis Crombie is the spectacular arm. He gave up a single earned run this year in 35.1 innings. He gave up more earned runs during a Triple-A rehab assignment. However, Crombie is dealing with a shoulder strain that’s been slow to heal and may be compromised. Every other right-hander in the pen has a skill, but it comes with trade-offs.
Yukitsura Okubo limits home runs, but he has a mediocre walk rate and doesn’t strike too many hitters out. Juan Robles gets the swings and misses, and also throws strikes, but is exceptionally homer prone. German Marquez is pretty solid in all three areas, but has been worse against righties than lefties most of his Toronto career. Mike Gianquinto can also get strike three pretty well, but was exceptionally wild this year. If Dauris Cordero gets in the game, something terrible has happened.
Only Billy McKay has the peripherals and health to be trusted against more than a few Indians hitters, but he only had a 4.03 ERA this year, so he hasn’t been dominant by any means. There’s also Chris Gentry from the left side, who allowed lefties to hit for an .844 OPS, while righties batted .710.
Danny Richardson doesn’t tend to go deep into games, but that could be a problem today.
Toronto’s defensive efficiency has been okay, though their zone rating isn’t great. The defense up the middle has generally been strong, but it’s also undergone some transformations. Taylor Walls continues to be a fine defensive Second Baseman, and Jelfry Marte can pick it at Shortstop, but Marte doesn’t hit enough to stat much anymore. Joel Evans has been playing short a lot more recently, but he’s not a great defender. Chris Billings had a nice September, but isn’t eligible for the playoffs unless someone goes on the IL.
Most of Toronto’s Center Field Zone Rating stems from Jahmai Jones’ time on the club. With him in Kansas City, Tweet McDade has been patrolling Center Field. He’s been serviceable, but not a plus. It leaves the unit with a lot of uncertainty on how it will hold up.
Blue Jays Hitting versus Indians Pitching
Toronto had the number one offense in the American League this season. A lot of that can be assumed was with players who aren’t on the team anymore, but they still finished first in AL runs in September. The remaining players can still hit.
The issue is that they had Eric Drouet around for the whole year, and he was sensational. He struck out just 13 times in 700 Plate Appearances, resulting in an almost incomprehensible 1.9% strikeout rate. He led the AL in steals with 40 and got on base at a .376 club. He’s a great hitter Toronto will have to play without.
The good news is that they were tied for second in home runs for the year, and their sluggers are on fire. Vladimir Guerrero 16 home runs after August 1 this year, hitting .345 in the process. He’s carried the Toronto offense down the stretch. Gary Sanchez crushed 18 home runs in the same timeframe, and is still a ferocious slugger. These are two beasts that need to be navigated carefully.
Jake Burger settled in for mid-20s homers, the level he’s been at the last few seasons as he exits his prime, but just drew the most walks of his career at age 32. Taylor Walls also continues to get on base as he has his whole career, with a .373 OBP that matches his career average.
Toronto still has sluggers and guys who can get on base in front of the sluggers. However, there are holes elsewhere with Drouet out. Either Walls moves up, leaving the bottom of the order a little weaker, or the team has fewer people on base ahead of the sluggers.
Tweet McDade is hot, but he had a .699 OPS this year. Pai Khan hit .224 with four homers this season. Evans has hit well, but is unproven. Leodys Taveras has hit for a solid average, but he’s dealing with a sprained knee. There’s a lot of uncertainty with Toronto with the Drouet suspension.
Cleveland will roll out Luis Esparza, a major strikeout arm who gives up a ton of homers. He’s pitched great against Toronto this year, allowing just two runs on two solo home runs in 14.2 innings. Taveras and Sanchez took him deep, but with the bases empty. The volatile lefty led the league in home runs allowed, but his control has gotten better every year and he really piles up the strikeouts, with 247 in 216.1 innings this year. If he can keep the bases empty, Toronto doesn’t have a ton of power hitters, and he’s done well lifetime against Guerrero Jr. If he can keep the bases empty ahead of Gary Sanchez, Cleveland likely shuts down the Blue Jays. If he doesn’t, Toronto likely goes off.
Like Toronto, Cleveland’s bullpen is extremely right-handed which plays in their favor. The bullpen ranked seventh this year, but many of those arms have been moved into the rotation or are on the IL right now.
The Indians went with three players with Closer duties this season, but only one was effective. Rich Fernandez saved 15 Games with a 3.00 ERA, but Terrible John Kinser ran a 5.53 mark for his 19 Saves, and Sergio Apodaca closed 10 Games with a 5.08 mark. All three rack up the strikeouts, but Terrible John has struggled with the long ball coming back from an elbow strain in Spring Training, and Sergio Apodaca hasn’t had the command needed to thrive in the majors. Kinser is hard to trust against the heart of the Toronto order, and Apodaca is hard to trust against any hitter.
Dan Norton only pitched 12.2 innings for Cleveland so he has no track record, and Sergio Ramirez only worked in 36 innings. Adam Langford is the middle reliever with the largest body of work. Langford’s walk rate suffered this year, though he does rack up strikeouts. His home rate was decent, but better against righties, which makes him a decent play today.
Cleveland’s defense is outstanding, especially on the left side. Williams and Meadows are impactful defenders, while Gurriel is solid at Third Base. With a left-hander starting, that’s a huge key.
Guerrero, Walls, and Marte will steal bases for Toronto, but Esparza holds runners pretty well. Willson Contreras isn’t great at throwing runners out at this stage of his career, but so few runners tried to steal on Cleveland. Toronto would have to pick its moments, but against Cleveland’s bullpen, may be able to swipe a key bag.
Off Toronto’s bench, Marte can steal a base, Anderson A. Tejada can run into a homer, but Eric Walker is their main bench weapon. His power has degraded with age, but he has a good eye and can get a pinch hit if Toronto wants to burn its backup Catcher.
Season Series
Cleveland won the season series 4-2, sweeping three in Toronto right out of the All Star Break, though they did lose two of three to in Cleveland to end the year.
The three Cleveland wins in Toronto all saw amazing starting pitching performances from Cleveland’s arms. Ernesto Ortega allowed one run in 7.1 on Friday July 21 to lead Cleveland to victory; Esparza allowed just two runs on three hits over 7.2 on Saturday to give Cleveland the series, and Josh Woodward outdueled Danny Richardson with 8 shutout on Sunday for the sweep.
The great pitching continued Saturday with 7 shutout from Esparza to give Cleveland a win to begin the final series of the year. Cleveland’s bullpen struggled after Woodward was ejected on Saturday, with Toronto scoring six runs in 4.1 against the unit to pick up an 8-5 win. Ortega got roughed up on Sunday, allowing Toronto to take the series behind four hits from Rob Reyser.
Deciding Questions
Can Toronto’s bullpen do an at least serviceable job today?
Will whoever bats leadoff for Toronto get on base a few times?
Will Cleveland’s late-inning relievers lock things down?
Prediction: This is a very messy game to predict with a lot up in the air, plus two volatile bullpens. Both starters should do reasonably well, but the bullpens are another story. Expect a few rallies late from both teams, but Crombie’s injury comes back to bite Toronto. Indians 6-5.
This year’s AL Wild Card Game will be tarnished by bad blood and absentee stars. The product on the field may result in one of the more underwhelming games we’ve seen in some time, but the passion among the players and fanbases may be at an all-time high. Cleveland’s Triple Crown winner Josh Woodward allowed a two-run home run to Pai Khan in the fifth inning of Saturday’s game. He got to 0-2 on the next batter, Eric Drouet, then fired one up and in towards Drouet’s head. Rattlesnake turned away and got hit in the shoulder, but aggrieved by Woodward’s reckless pitching after Khan’s home run, he announced his displeasure by charging the mound and igniting the brawl.
Most people with knowledge of the situation believe Woodward was more frustrated with Drouet’s inability to strike out and sent a message about Drouet standing on top of the plate. Either way, Drouet will miss the game, as will Woodward, leaving the teams without their two stars. Luis Retana will likely miss the game for personal reasons, Travis Crombie may not pitch because of a shoulder strain. It will be a war of attrition to see who moves on to face Boston and who stays home. A shame, because Toronto is back in the playoffs after a short drought, and still has some of the core of its 2024 title team. Cleveland is on the rise, but could be considered the AL favorite at full strength, but a poor finish leaves them in a do-or-die situation.
Cleveland Offense versus Toronto Pitching
Cleveland was fourth in offense with a lineup that led the league in home runs. Their best player, Luis Retana, will likely miss today’s game for personal reasons. Retana hit 21 home runs with a .975 OPS this year, batting .333 in the process. Nonie Williams will take Retana’s place, and while the backup is fantastic against lefties, Williams has struggled against right-handed pitching his entire career.
That tempers Cleveland’s lineup, giving it less high-end ability, less of the power that drives the team’s offense, and making the Indians relatively weak at getting on base. Furthermore, the team will only have three hitters who bat left-handed in the lineup—veteran star Bryce Harper, doubles maestro Austin Meadows, and the aforementioned Williams.
Harper hit 30 long balls, while Danny Knoch and Lourdes Gurriel each hit at least 26, so Cleveland still has a few players who can run into things. Also, only Javier Baez is a negative hitter in the lineup. Lesser bats like Julian Infante and Federico Anziani get base hits or club doubles. Still, Cleveland will face an excellent starter for Toronto with one fewer club in the bag.
That starter is Danny Richardson, one of the best command-and-control arms in baseball. Richardson was sixth in AL walk rate among pitchers with 100 innings, backing that up with a .267 BABIP. As a result, he seldom allowed baserunners, working to a league-leading 1.04 WHIP. He also gets good movement, so hitters didn’t compensate with cheap home runs. Richardson allowed just 15 on the year. Richardson also really pulverizes righties, with a fastball-sinker combination that eats their bats inside. It held righties to a .199 average with seven home runs in 237 Plate Appearances. Cleveland’s lineup is predominantly right-handed, a key reason Richardson went 5.1 shutout against them in July in his only start of the year against Cleveland.
Toronto’s bullpen only has one left-handed arm, a fact that should help them against Cleveland. The Blue Jays don’t have the best bullpen as it was only ninth in bullpen ERA in the regular season. There’s only one spectacular arm in the bullpen, and a lot of pretty okay arms.
Travis Crombie is the spectacular arm. He gave up a single earned run this year in 35.1 innings. He gave up more earned runs during a Triple-A rehab assignment. However, Crombie is dealing with a shoulder strain that’s been slow to heal and may be compromised. Every other right-hander in the pen has a skill, but it comes with trade-offs.
Yukitsura Okubo limits home runs, but he has a mediocre walk rate and doesn’t strike too many hitters out. Juan Robles gets the swings and misses, and also throws strikes, but is exceptionally homer prone. German Marquez is pretty solid in all three areas, but has been worse against righties than lefties most of his Toronto career. Mike Gianquinto can also get strike three pretty well, but was exceptionally wild this year. If Dauris Cordero gets in the game, something terrible has happened.
Only Billy McKay has the peripherals and health to be trusted against more than a few Indians hitters, but he only had a 4.03 ERA this year, so he hasn’t been dominant by any means. There’s also Chris Gentry from the left side, who allowed lefties to hit for an .844 OPS, while righties batted .710.
Danny Richardson doesn’t tend to go deep into games, but that could be a problem today.
Toronto’s defensive efficiency has been okay, though their zone rating isn’t great. The defense up the middle has generally been strong, but it’s also undergone some transformations. Taylor Walls continues to be a fine defensive Second Baseman, and Jelfry Marte can pick it at Shortstop, but Marte doesn’t hit enough to stat much anymore. Joel Evans has been playing short a lot more recently, but he’s not a great defender. Chris Billings had a nice September, but isn’t eligible for the playoffs unless someone goes on the IL.
Most of Toronto’s Center Field Zone Rating stems from Jahmai Jones’ time on the club. With him in Kansas City, Tweet McDade has been patrolling Center Field. He’s been serviceable, but not a plus. It leaves the unit with a lot of uncertainty on how it will hold up.
Blue Jays Hitting versus Indians Pitching
Toronto had the number one offense in the American League this season. A lot of that can be assumed was with players who aren’t on the team anymore, but they still finished first in AL runs in September. The remaining players can still hit.
The issue is that they had Eric Drouet around for the whole year, and he was sensational. He struck out just 13 times in 700 Plate Appearances, resulting in an almost incomprehensible 1.9% strikeout rate. He led the AL in steals with 40 and got on base at a .376 club. He’s a great hitter Toronto will have to play without.
The good news is that they were tied for second in home runs for the year, and their sluggers are on fire. Vladimir Guerrero 16 home runs after August 1 this year, hitting .345 in the process. He’s carried the Toronto offense down the stretch. Gary Sanchez crushed 18 home runs in the same timeframe, and is still a ferocious slugger. These are two beasts that need to be navigated carefully.
Jake Burger settled in for mid-20s homers, the level he’s been at the last few seasons as he exits his prime, but just drew the most walks of his career at age 32. Taylor Walls also continues to get on base as he has his whole career, with a .373 OBP that matches his career average.
Toronto still has sluggers and guys who can get on base in front of the sluggers. However, there are holes elsewhere with Drouet out. Either Walls moves up, leaving the bottom of the order a little weaker, or the team has fewer people on base ahead of the sluggers.
Tweet McDade is hot, but he had a .699 OPS this year. Pai Khan hit .224 with four homers this season. Evans has hit well, but is unproven. Leodys Taveras has hit for a solid average, but he’s dealing with a sprained knee. There’s a lot of uncertainty with Toronto with the Drouet suspension.
Cleveland will roll out Luis Esparza, a major strikeout arm who gives up a ton of homers. He’s pitched great against Toronto this year, allowing just two runs on two solo home runs in 14.2 innings. Taveras and Sanchez took him deep, but with the bases empty. The volatile lefty led the league in home runs allowed, but his control has gotten better every year and he really piles up the strikeouts, with 247 in 216.1 innings this year. If he can keep the bases empty, Toronto doesn’t have a ton of power hitters, and he’s done well lifetime against Guerrero Jr. If he can keep the bases empty ahead of Gary Sanchez, Cleveland likely shuts down the Blue Jays. If he doesn’t, Toronto likely goes off.
Like Toronto, Cleveland’s bullpen is extremely right-handed which plays in their favor. The bullpen ranked seventh this year, but many of those arms have been moved into the rotation or are on the IL right now.
The Indians went with three players with Closer duties this season, but only one was effective. Rich Fernandez saved 15 Games with a 3.00 ERA, but Terrible John Kinser ran a 5.53 mark for his 19 Saves, and Sergio Apodaca closed 10 Games with a 5.08 mark. All three rack up the strikeouts, but Terrible John has struggled with the long ball coming back from an elbow strain in Spring Training, and Sergio Apodaca hasn’t had the command needed to thrive in the majors. Kinser is hard to trust against the heart of the Toronto order, and Apodaca is hard to trust against any hitter.
Dan Norton only pitched 12.2 innings for Cleveland so he has no track record, and Sergio Ramirez only worked in 36 innings. Adam Langford is the middle reliever with the largest body of work. Langford’s walk rate suffered this year, though he does rack up strikeouts. His home rate was decent, but better against righties, which makes him a decent play today.
Cleveland’s defense is outstanding, especially on the left side. Williams and Meadows are impactful defenders, while Gurriel is solid at Third Base. With a left-hander starting, that’s a huge key.
Guerrero, Walls, and Marte will steal bases for Toronto, but Esparza holds runners pretty well. Willson Contreras isn’t great at throwing runners out at this stage of his career, but so few runners tried to steal on Cleveland. Toronto would have to pick its moments, but against Cleveland’s bullpen, may be able to swipe a key bag.
Off Toronto’s bench, Marte can steal a base, Anderson A. Tejada can run into a homer, but Eric Walker is their main bench weapon. His power has degraded with age, but he has a good eye and can get a pinch hit if Toronto wants to burn its backup Catcher.
Season Series
Cleveland won the season series 4-2, sweeping three in Toronto right out of the All Star Break, though they did lose two of three to in Cleveland to end the year.
The three Cleveland wins in Toronto all saw amazing starting pitching performances from Cleveland’s arms. Ernesto Ortega allowed one run in 7.1 on Friday July 21 to lead Cleveland to victory; Esparza allowed just two runs on three hits over 7.2 on Saturday to give Cleveland the series, and Josh Woodward outdueled Danny Richardson with 8 shutout on Sunday for the sweep.
The great pitching continued Saturday with 7 shutout from Esparza to give Cleveland a win to begin the final series of the year. Cleveland’s bullpen struggled after Woodward was ejected on Saturday, with Toronto scoring six runs in 4.1 against the unit to pick up an 8-5 win. Ortega got roughed up on Sunday, allowing Toronto to take the series behind four hits from Rob Reyser.
Deciding Questions
Can Toronto’s bullpen do an at least serviceable job today?
Will whoever bats leadoff for Toronto get on base a few times?
Will Cleveland’s late-inning relievers lock things down?
Prediction: This is a very messy game to predict with a lot up in the air, plus two volatile bullpens. Both starters should do reasonably well, but the bullpens are another story. Expect a few rallies late from both teams, but Crombie’s injury comes back to bite Toronto. Indians 6-5.