2028 ALDS Red Sox-Blue Jays Preview
Aug 14, 2022 18:36:10 GMT -5
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Post by Commissioner Erick on Aug 14, 2022 18:36:10 GMT -5
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will meet in an AL East brawl to determine who goes on to the ALCS. Boston was in this position last year, having the best record in the American League and facing a beatable ALDS opponent coming off a Wild Card Game win, and Boston was promptly dispatched in four games. The 2027 Red Sox had a pitching staff in shambles that postseason, but this edition has the club’s best hitter out for the round, his replacement dealing with a bum hamstring, the second best hitter dealing with a suspension, and a 100-RBI guy dealing with a strained quad. Boston is talented, but frustratingly not at full strength.
They’ll take on a Blue Jays club that dominated the Wild Card Game behind Danny Richardson’s pitching and Gary Sanchez’ power. Toronto is still dealing with the suspension of Eric Drouet for the first part of the series, nerfing the depth of their lineup. Travis Crombie’s shoulder is still barking, and the pitching quality is subpar thanks to a midseason trade. Toronto will try to survive the early part of the series until Drouet gets back and the club can use Danny Richardson again.
Red Sox Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Boston had the second best offense in the AL this year, as they were good in a number of areas. The team finished second in doubles, third in average and OBP, fourth in steals, and sixth in home runs. They hit well against lefties and righties alike, but were slightly better against righties—a huge edge considering Toronto’s staff is predominantly right-handed.
Boston will be without Joe Taylor, an offensive monster who hit .312/33/112 with 47 doubles and 20 steals. Boston, however, is better able to survive a Taylor loss than most thanks to their offenses’ depth. There a lot of youngsters and part-time players who don’t have a lot of counting stats, but had great years in lesser amounts of playing time. Jonathan Annis is a perfect example of this. He only had eight home runs and 48 RBIs. However, he smashed 23 doubles, hit .327 ran a .911 OPS, and struck out just 18 times with 29 walks. Appropriately nicknamed Exorcist, Annis treats pitchers like a priest treats a demon.
The rest of Boston’s lineup is made up of competent professionals, most of whom run good on-base numbers, or in Jake Sanfilippo, are good at bringing in men on base. Andres Gimenez scored 106 times thanks to a .377 OBP on top the order, and helped out by 18 steals in 20 attempts. Victor Robles backed him up with a .350 OBP. Luis Villareal gets on at a .386 clip. Further down the order, Ulysses Cantu, always good at hitting for average, used those hits to buoy a .360 OBP. You have to get to the eight and nine spots to find hitters who don’t do a lot of damage or get on base.
Boston is dealing, however, with a suspension to Luis Villareal and a pair of injuries to Juan Inzuza and Arturo Reineri that sap the lineup. Villareal got on base at a .386 clip and smashed 39 doubles. He has a great approach and is a bear to play against. He’ll miss the first half of the series after igniting a brawl the final day of the season. Gadget had a balanced .769 OPS this year, but a hamstring injury is slowing him down. It will affect his defense, his baserunning, and hamstring injuries have a bad habit of being further aggravated. Those are a lot of injuries to the corner outfield, with unproven Brock Paradiso the backup.
Reineri doesn’t have the patience the rest of his teammates have, but he avoids strikeouts and has good power, hitting 24 doubles and 26 homers, driving in 101. He’s dealt with a bad quad since August, and it didn’t stop him from having September be his highest month of OPS on the year. Boston may have to be more station to station with the nagging injuries, and their place in the lineup is tenuous, but at least Reineri has shown he can thrive through pain.
Toronto does not have a lineup well equipped to face Boston. Danny Richardson will miss the first few games of the series, and while Darge Gakere is a playoff hero, Art Gomez and Lodewijk de Leeuw are not postseason-caliber starters.
Gakere as a then-21-year-old worked 18.2 innings in the 2024 playoffs, winning three games with a 0.96 ERA. There may be a statue of him outside The Rogers Center one day. He’s developed into a solid mid-rotation arm. He’s homer prone, but he has live stuff and decent control. Boston is so good at avoiding strikeouts that Gakere may not thrive against the team. He’s faced Boston three times this year, and couldn’t more than 4 innings in any start, allowing five runs in all three.
Art Gomez had a 5.53 ERA in 14 starts. He’s also homer prone and doesn’t miss bats, though at least he throws strikes. He’s had some success against Boston this year as the Red Sox aren’t the biggest homer hitting team and Gomez’ control plays well against them, but he’s also a candidate to give up a ton of doubles.
De Luuew has a bright future, but had a 6.83 ERA this year and didn’t make a PBA start. Only 22, his command just isn’t there. However, the talent and upside is there for a great start. Toronto may be overmatched, and he’s not the worst guy to hope for a 90% outcome, as it could be no runs on two hits over 7.
Toronto does not have a good bullpen at all. The two guys who can be relied upon are banged up (Travis Crombie) or a bit gassed early in the series (Billy McKay). Toronto’s pen did have modest success against Boston this year, giving up a ton of fly balls (38% ground ball rate) that stayed in the park (6 HR). Toronto’s best approach in the middle innings may be sending out Juan Robles and saying a prayer to the xFIP gods.
Toronto’s defense is not good and Boston’s exceptional contact skills will test the team often. Toronto did an average job of deterring base-stealers, with Sanchez throwing out runners at an above-average rate.
Boston carries 13 pitchers, and with the suspension to Villareal, Brock Paradiso, Zack Smith, and Jeter Downs comprise Boston’s bench. Paradiso has 12 career PBA Games, while backup Catcher Smith has 24 career Games—all in 2026. Downs is the only established bench player. He can steal a base with eight thefts in nine tries, and gets on base at a good clip, with a .358 OBP. He’s got some extra base pop as well from his starting days with Oakland.
Blue Jays Offense versus Red Sox Pitching
Boston led the league with runs allowed, and its righty-heavy staff plays well against Toronto. Marcus Stroman is the ace, and has continued his Hall-of-Fame career with a stellar age-37 season. Stroman has allowed a HR/9 rate of 1.0 just once in his career. He allowed just 15 walks in 180.1 innings, and more amazingly, just 16 walks. The strikeout rate continues to disappear and it doesn’t even matter. Toronto thrives on home runs from its sluggers, but while Gary Sanchez has a high average lifetime against Stroman, the combination of Sanchez, Jake Burger, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has just four career home runs off Stroman in 115 at bats.
Sergio Murilo has only appeared in 14.1 innings for Boston, but has a reputation as a big game pitcher for his work last postseason and in the 2026 Wild Card Game. Lifetime, Murillo is 2-1 with a 4.44 postseason ERA with big stuff that plays in the postseason. He can be erratic, so there’s a high ceiling and low floor with all his starts.
Andy DeShaw combines good walk and strikeout rates with a home run percentage that drops with experience. He had a solid 3.82 ERA this year, working 193.1 innings. He has almost no platoon splits this year, and negative platoon splits in his career—which may be an issue against Toronto’s righties.
Pete Daley rounds out the staff. He keeps the ball in the park by keeping it away from the strike zone. He’ll yield walks and doubles, relying on his defense to take care of any mess. Toronto’s not a great doubles team and so much of their offense early in the series will need to come from home-run power from the heart of the order, but when Drouet returns and makes Toronto’s offense more balanced, Daley may not be the most reliable option.
Boston has the best bullpen in the league, deep, flexible, and varied. Bobby Mendez was the closer this year and led the league in Saves. The righty is a little wilder than most GMs prefer, but he keeps the ball in the yard and has a healthy strikeout rate.
Juan Alaniz and Luis Espinoza will someday be in the rotation for Boston. Currently, they anchor the late innings. Alaniz is a righty with an excellent splitter that neutralizes lefties and righties alike. Like Mendez, he has a healthy strikeout rate and a strong home run rate. Espinoza is a lefty that doesn’t have the best strikeout rate, but he has good control and keeps the ball on the ground and in the park. He dominated lefties, but righties did a decent job against him. Still, if needed, te home run rate makes him playable against Sanchez and Guerrero.
Luis Ortiz was a starter this year, moving to the pen for the playoffs. He can pitch multiple innings, has excellent control, and keeps the ball down. Righties hit him well though, so he’ll be in for a tough series. Phil Cabrera may be the better option, an exceptionally wild, exceptionally potent strikeout artist who worked to a 1.12 ERA this year. Cabrera dominates hitters with a funky delivery, a disappearing changeup, and a biting slider. Hitters can work their way to first base, but he allowed just five home runs in 75.1 innings, and worked to a .245 BABIP, so he’s tough to score upon.
Following a theme, in the earlier innings Pat Strand, Allen Asbury, and Warren Lang all have good strikeout rates and excellent home run numbers. Strand will walk hitters, so he may be less relevant than the other arms.
Bobby McConnell held lefties to a .621 OPS and could be used against the lower part of the order in the early innings.
It’ll be a tall task for a Toronto team scrapping together a supporting cast.
Vladimir Guerrero and Gary Sanchez remain incredibly potent hitters, as Cleveland discovered in the Wild Card Game, and previous teams have found out throughout the decade. Toronto’s supporting cast isn’t as strong though, especially with Eric Drouet out for the first three games of the series.
Jake Burger is a decent hitter, but he’s much better against lefties than righties at this point in his career. Taylor Walls can still draw walks, hit the occasional double, and create opportunities for the lower part of the order. The rest of Toronto’s offense is full of questions. Pai Khan drew a lot of walks, but only hit .224 and has little power to speak of. With Boston featuring pitchers with good control, will he be able to be a threat atop the lineup?
Lefties Ron Ryser, Joel Evans, and Phil Schultz will get starts this series, but they have a total of 45 games between them this season. Schultz was awful in Triple-A this year, but did hit 11 home runs in half a season for Toronto last year. Both Ryser and Evans have hit for a high average throughout their minor and major league careers. The trio has shown signs of competence, but are incredibly untested heading into the playoff crucible. If their high averages hold up, Toronto can string together some offense at the bottom of the lineup. If not, there will be a ton of pressure on the stars.
Drouet’s return would be huge for Toronto. Boston’s ability to keep the ball in the park doesn’t faze Rattlesnake. He’ll simply slash singles ahead of Toronto’s stars and run around the bases. He hit .343 and was successful on all seven of his steal attempts in 17 Games against the Red Sox this year. He provides better odds that Toronto’s sluggers bat with men on, and better odds that if Toronto’s bottom of the order does get some hits, Drouet can slash them home.
Off the bench, Eric Walker can get a base hit, while Anderson A. Tejada can run into a homer. Leodys Tavares can pinch hit against a lefty and get a base hit, while Jelfry Marte can steal a base and be a defensive replacement.
Season Series
Boston won the season series 10-9, somehow going 7-3 in Toronto, and going 3-6 at home. Boston’s starters and long men tended to struggle, while their short relievers were excellent. Power hitters like Inzuza and Sanfilippo were excellent, as was Villareal, but many of Boston’s better hitters struggled.
For Toronto, their pitchers really struggled. Short relievers Travis Crombie, Billy McKay, and Chris Gentry pitched well, but there are some awful pitching lines among the rest of the club. Outside of Jake Burger, the key players for Toronto all hit very well though, allowing the team to stay in its fair share of shootouts.
Deciding Questions
Can Toronto’s young lefty hitters hold up in the playoff crucible?
Can Toronto’s starters win one of the first three games to keep things close for Drouet and Richardson?
Which Sergio Murillo will show up? The occasionally dominant postseason maestro or the player with the 6.91 ERA this year?
Prediction:
It will likely be a shootout. Boston has the offensive depth to put pressure on Toronto early in the series, though the Blue Jays have had success scoring on the Red Sox all season. There are too many unproven players for Toronto to persevere this round. Red Sox 4-2.
The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will meet in an AL East brawl to determine who goes on to the ALCS. Boston was in this position last year, having the best record in the American League and facing a beatable ALDS opponent coming off a Wild Card Game win, and Boston was promptly dispatched in four games. The 2027 Red Sox had a pitching staff in shambles that postseason, but this edition has the club’s best hitter out for the round, his replacement dealing with a bum hamstring, the second best hitter dealing with a suspension, and a 100-RBI guy dealing with a strained quad. Boston is talented, but frustratingly not at full strength.
They’ll take on a Blue Jays club that dominated the Wild Card Game behind Danny Richardson’s pitching and Gary Sanchez’ power. Toronto is still dealing with the suspension of Eric Drouet for the first part of the series, nerfing the depth of their lineup. Travis Crombie’s shoulder is still barking, and the pitching quality is subpar thanks to a midseason trade. Toronto will try to survive the early part of the series until Drouet gets back and the club can use Danny Richardson again.
Red Sox Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Boston had the second best offense in the AL this year, as they were good in a number of areas. The team finished second in doubles, third in average and OBP, fourth in steals, and sixth in home runs. They hit well against lefties and righties alike, but were slightly better against righties—a huge edge considering Toronto’s staff is predominantly right-handed.
Boston will be without Joe Taylor, an offensive monster who hit .312/33/112 with 47 doubles and 20 steals. Boston, however, is better able to survive a Taylor loss than most thanks to their offenses’ depth. There a lot of youngsters and part-time players who don’t have a lot of counting stats, but had great years in lesser amounts of playing time. Jonathan Annis is a perfect example of this. He only had eight home runs and 48 RBIs. However, he smashed 23 doubles, hit .327 ran a .911 OPS, and struck out just 18 times with 29 walks. Appropriately nicknamed Exorcist, Annis treats pitchers like a priest treats a demon.
The rest of Boston’s lineup is made up of competent professionals, most of whom run good on-base numbers, or in Jake Sanfilippo, are good at bringing in men on base. Andres Gimenez scored 106 times thanks to a .377 OBP on top the order, and helped out by 18 steals in 20 attempts. Victor Robles backed him up with a .350 OBP. Luis Villareal gets on at a .386 clip. Further down the order, Ulysses Cantu, always good at hitting for average, used those hits to buoy a .360 OBP. You have to get to the eight and nine spots to find hitters who don’t do a lot of damage or get on base.
Boston is dealing, however, with a suspension to Luis Villareal and a pair of injuries to Juan Inzuza and Arturo Reineri that sap the lineup. Villareal got on base at a .386 clip and smashed 39 doubles. He has a great approach and is a bear to play against. He’ll miss the first half of the series after igniting a brawl the final day of the season. Gadget had a balanced .769 OPS this year, but a hamstring injury is slowing him down. It will affect his defense, his baserunning, and hamstring injuries have a bad habit of being further aggravated. Those are a lot of injuries to the corner outfield, with unproven Brock Paradiso the backup.
Reineri doesn’t have the patience the rest of his teammates have, but he avoids strikeouts and has good power, hitting 24 doubles and 26 homers, driving in 101. He’s dealt with a bad quad since August, and it didn’t stop him from having September be his highest month of OPS on the year. Boston may have to be more station to station with the nagging injuries, and their place in the lineup is tenuous, but at least Reineri has shown he can thrive through pain.
Toronto does not have a lineup well equipped to face Boston. Danny Richardson will miss the first few games of the series, and while Darge Gakere is a playoff hero, Art Gomez and Lodewijk de Leeuw are not postseason-caliber starters.
Gakere as a then-21-year-old worked 18.2 innings in the 2024 playoffs, winning three games with a 0.96 ERA. There may be a statue of him outside The Rogers Center one day. He’s developed into a solid mid-rotation arm. He’s homer prone, but he has live stuff and decent control. Boston is so good at avoiding strikeouts that Gakere may not thrive against the team. He’s faced Boston three times this year, and couldn’t more than 4 innings in any start, allowing five runs in all three.
Art Gomez had a 5.53 ERA in 14 starts. He’s also homer prone and doesn’t miss bats, though at least he throws strikes. He’s had some success against Boston this year as the Red Sox aren’t the biggest homer hitting team and Gomez’ control plays well against them, but he’s also a candidate to give up a ton of doubles.
De Luuew has a bright future, but had a 6.83 ERA this year and didn’t make a PBA start. Only 22, his command just isn’t there. However, the talent and upside is there for a great start. Toronto may be overmatched, and he’s not the worst guy to hope for a 90% outcome, as it could be no runs on two hits over 7.
Toronto does not have a good bullpen at all. The two guys who can be relied upon are banged up (Travis Crombie) or a bit gassed early in the series (Billy McKay). Toronto’s pen did have modest success against Boston this year, giving up a ton of fly balls (38% ground ball rate) that stayed in the park (6 HR). Toronto’s best approach in the middle innings may be sending out Juan Robles and saying a prayer to the xFIP gods.
Toronto’s defense is not good and Boston’s exceptional contact skills will test the team often. Toronto did an average job of deterring base-stealers, with Sanchez throwing out runners at an above-average rate.
Boston carries 13 pitchers, and with the suspension to Villareal, Brock Paradiso, Zack Smith, and Jeter Downs comprise Boston’s bench. Paradiso has 12 career PBA Games, while backup Catcher Smith has 24 career Games—all in 2026. Downs is the only established bench player. He can steal a base with eight thefts in nine tries, and gets on base at a good clip, with a .358 OBP. He’s got some extra base pop as well from his starting days with Oakland.
Blue Jays Offense versus Red Sox Pitching
Boston led the league with runs allowed, and its righty-heavy staff plays well against Toronto. Marcus Stroman is the ace, and has continued his Hall-of-Fame career with a stellar age-37 season. Stroman has allowed a HR/9 rate of 1.0 just once in his career. He allowed just 15 walks in 180.1 innings, and more amazingly, just 16 walks. The strikeout rate continues to disappear and it doesn’t even matter. Toronto thrives on home runs from its sluggers, but while Gary Sanchez has a high average lifetime against Stroman, the combination of Sanchez, Jake Burger, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has just four career home runs off Stroman in 115 at bats.
Sergio Murilo has only appeared in 14.1 innings for Boston, but has a reputation as a big game pitcher for his work last postseason and in the 2026 Wild Card Game. Lifetime, Murillo is 2-1 with a 4.44 postseason ERA with big stuff that plays in the postseason. He can be erratic, so there’s a high ceiling and low floor with all his starts.
Andy DeShaw combines good walk and strikeout rates with a home run percentage that drops with experience. He had a solid 3.82 ERA this year, working 193.1 innings. He has almost no platoon splits this year, and negative platoon splits in his career—which may be an issue against Toronto’s righties.
Pete Daley rounds out the staff. He keeps the ball in the park by keeping it away from the strike zone. He’ll yield walks and doubles, relying on his defense to take care of any mess. Toronto’s not a great doubles team and so much of their offense early in the series will need to come from home-run power from the heart of the order, but when Drouet returns and makes Toronto’s offense more balanced, Daley may not be the most reliable option.
Boston has the best bullpen in the league, deep, flexible, and varied. Bobby Mendez was the closer this year and led the league in Saves. The righty is a little wilder than most GMs prefer, but he keeps the ball in the yard and has a healthy strikeout rate.
Juan Alaniz and Luis Espinoza will someday be in the rotation for Boston. Currently, they anchor the late innings. Alaniz is a righty with an excellent splitter that neutralizes lefties and righties alike. Like Mendez, he has a healthy strikeout rate and a strong home run rate. Espinoza is a lefty that doesn’t have the best strikeout rate, but he has good control and keeps the ball on the ground and in the park. He dominated lefties, but righties did a decent job against him. Still, if needed, te home run rate makes him playable against Sanchez and Guerrero.
Luis Ortiz was a starter this year, moving to the pen for the playoffs. He can pitch multiple innings, has excellent control, and keeps the ball down. Righties hit him well though, so he’ll be in for a tough series. Phil Cabrera may be the better option, an exceptionally wild, exceptionally potent strikeout artist who worked to a 1.12 ERA this year. Cabrera dominates hitters with a funky delivery, a disappearing changeup, and a biting slider. Hitters can work their way to first base, but he allowed just five home runs in 75.1 innings, and worked to a .245 BABIP, so he’s tough to score upon.
Following a theme, in the earlier innings Pat Strand, Allen Asbury, and Warren Lang all have good strikeout rates and excellent home run numbers. Strand will walk hitters, so he may be less relevant than the other arms.
Bobby McConnell held lefties to a .621 OPS and could be used against the lower part of the order in the early innings.
It’ll be a tall task for a Toronto team scrapping together a supporting cast.
Vladimir Guerrero and Gary Sanchez remain incredibly potent hitters, as Cleveland discovered in the Wild Card Game, and previous teams have found out throughout the decade. Toronto’s supporting cast isn’t as strong though, especially with Eric Drouet out for the first three games of the series.
Jake Burger is a decent hitter, but he’s much better against lefties than righties at this point in his career. Taylor Walls can still draw walks, hit the occasional double, and create opportunities for the lower part of the order. The rest of Toronto’s offense is full of questions. Pai Khan drew a lot of walks, but only hit .224 and has little power to speak of. With Boston featuring pitchers with good control, will he be able to be a threat atop the lineup?
Lefties Ron Ryser, Joel Evans, and Phil Schultz will get starts this series, but they have a total of 45 games between them this season. Schultz was awful in Triple-A this year, but did hit 11 home runs in half a season for Toronto last year. Both Ryser and Evans have hit for a high average throughout their minor and major league careers. The trio has shown signs of competence, but are incredibly untested heading into the playoff crucible. If their high averages hold up, Toronto can string together some offense at the bottom of the lineup. If not, there will be a ton of pressure on the stars.
Drouet’s return would be huge for Toronto. Boston’s ability to keep the ball in the park doesn’t faze Rattlesnake. He’ll simply slash singles ahead of Toronto’s stars and run around the bases. He hit .343 and was successful on all seven of his steal attempts in 17 Games against the Red Sox this year. He provides better odds that Toronto’s sluggers bat with men on, and better odds that if Toronto’s bottom of the order does get some hits, Drouet can slash them home.
Off the bench, Eric Walker can get a base hit, while Anderson A. Tejada can run into a homer. Leodys Tavares can pinch hit against a lefty and get a base hit, while Jelfry Marte can steal a base and be a defensive replacement.
Season Series
Boston won the season series 10-9, somehow going 7-3 in Toronto, and going 3-6 at home. Boston’s starters and long men tended to struggle, while their short relievers were excellent. Power hitters like Inzuza and Sanfilippo were excellent, as was Villareal, but many of Boston’s better hitters struggled.
For Toronto, their pitchers really struggled. Short relievers Travis Crombie, Billy McKay, and Chris Gentry pitched well, but there are some awful pitching lines among the rest of the club. Outside of Jake Burger, the key players for Toronto all hit very well though, allowing the team to stay in its fair share of shootouts.
Deciding Questions
Can Toronto’s young lefty hitters hold up in the playoff crucible?
Can Toronto’s starters win one of the first three games to keep things close for Drouet and Richardson?
Which Sergio Murillo will show up? The occasionally dominant postseason maestro or the player with the 6.91 ERA this year?
Prediction:
It will likely be a shootout. Boston has the offensive depth to put pressure on Toronto early in the series, though the Blue Jays have had success scoring on the Red Sox all season. There are too many unproven players for Toronto to persevere this round. Red Sox 4-2.