2028 ALDS Preview - Seattle vs. Kansas City
Aug 14, 2022 19:49:45 GMT -5
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Post by stlgm on Aug 14, 2022 19:49:45 GMT -5
ALDS - Seattle Mariners (95-67) vs. Kansas City Royals (102-60)
Seattle heads to Kansas City this weekend for a rematch of last season's American League Divisional Series. The M's faithful are hoping for a much better outcome this season, after getting swept by the Royals in four games in 2027.
The Mariners enter the postseason coming off of their second consecutive AL West championship. The 2028 Mariners didn't look destined to defend the championship early in the season. They were 12-18 through April, including being swept in a four game series against the Royals. But things turned about in May as the team reeled off 12 straight wins and went 37-16 in the months of May and June to take control of the division. The Mariners wouldn't look back and finished the year with 95 wins.
Despite the division title, the Mariners did flounder towards the end of the season. On August 25th, the Mariners lost their young phenom pitcher Chris Degenkolb to a torn UCL, and later on in that game lost a bullpen arm in Odmar Gallindo to a herniated disc. Three days later, trade addition Josh Carlson went on the IL with forearm inflammation, and the team has struggled to put together a string of wins. They closed the season out going just 14-13.
The pitching staff has been held together thanks to Chris Ford and Adam Hall. Ford got the call up thanks to the injuries, and has been superb in the M's rotation. Opponents are hitting just .198 off of him over 31 innings and Ford has a sparkling 1.74 ERA to show for it. Hall moved to the rotation midseason and posted a 3.88 ERA over 13 starts. Ford, Hall, and Jeifry Nunez will be relied upon for Seattle in this series.
Offensively, the Mariners are masters of getting on base and play station to station baseball. They finished just 11th in the AL in extra base hits, but they led the league in OBP, sacrifice hits, and finished 2nd in stolen bases. It's a throwback style that baseball traditionalists are loving. The stolen base totals look nice, but they also lead the big leagues with 55 time caught stealing, meanwhile the Royals are one of the better teams at limiting stolen bases.
Meanwhile, the reigning American League Champions enter the postseason with 102 wins and their third straight division title and fifth straight postseason appearance. For the second consecutive season, the Royals came back from a nine game defecit behind the Cleveland Indians to win the division, this time with a convincing five game victory. The team hit their low point in June, going just 14-13 and being swept by the Mariners as they fell nine games behind the Tribe. They rebounded thought, going an AL-best 43-22 after the All-Star break and once again looking like the favorite in the American League.
The Royals third-ranked offense is similar to Seattle in the aspect that they don't hit home runs - they ranked 9th in the league in that stat. Despite that, Kansas finished #1 in Extra Base Hits. This was sparked by an unlikely source, 3B Hardland Guenette. Guenette went off this season, hitting a league leading 56 doubles and scoring 124 runs, while batting an insane .333/.415/.548. His 8.1 WAR more than doubled his previous career high of 3.5. Jorge Vargas still played a huge role despite a down year for his standards, hitting JUST 33 home runs and driving in 121 runs with a 5.7 WAR.
Kansas City pairs their offense with one of the league's best pitching staffs. They finished top 2 in Runs Allowed, Starters ERA, Bullpen ERA, FIP, and Pitching WAR. It's difficult to find a weakness in their staff, although it should be noted that the Mariners did rough up Vicente Corado and Dakota Hudson in the regular season.
Looking at the season series, Kansas City took four of seven games from the Mariners, with each team sweeping the other at home. That could be a sign that home field will be important for this series, but it shouldn't be overlooked that those two series happened during each teams highest of highs and lowest of lows of the season. Looking at the larger sample size, Kansas City is one of the league's best road teams, whereas the Mariners struggle away from Safeco Field...I mean Amazon Prime Park. (really???)
Pivotal Questions
What kind of late game fireworks will we see? Thanks to injuries, but bullpens are thin and could make it difficult to close out games.
Will Kansas City go with a bat or arm? Jorge Parra was a spark in his August call up in the catcher platoon, but his arm could hurt against a team like Seattle that runs more than any team in baseball.
How will the Mariners get on base? The league's leading OBP team goes against a Kansas City staff that issued the least walks in all of PBA (and it wasn't even close - they issued 52 less walks than the next closest team, Milwaukee). A Mariners team that doesn't hit for the gaps or much power may struggle to generate offense against a staff that doesn't issue free passes.
Prediction
We aren't predicting a repeat of last season's sweep, but this just isn't a good matchup for the Mariners. The Mariners may steal one at the legendary APP, but we predict them struggling to score and the Royals winning in five games.
Seattle heads to Kansas City this weekend for a rematch of last season's American League Divisional Series. The M's faithful are hoping for a much better outcome this season, after getting swept by the Royals in four games in 2027.
The Mariners enter the postseason coming off of their second consecutive AL West championship. The 2028 Mariners didn't look destined to defend the championship early in the season. They were 12-18 through April, including being swept in a four game series against the Royals. But things turned about in May as the team reeled off 12 straight wins and went 37-16 in the months of May and June to take control of the division. The Mariners wouldn't look back and finished the year with 95 wins.
Despite the division title, the Mariners did flounder towards the end of the season. On August 25th, the Mariners lost their young phenom pitcher Chris Degenkolb to a torn UCL, and later on in that game lost a bullpen arm in Odmar Gallindo to a herniated disc. Three days later, trade addition Josh Carlson went on the IL with forearm inflammation, and the team has struggled to put together a string of wins. They closed the season out going just 14-13.
The pitching staff has been held together thanks to Chris Ford and Adam Hall. Ford got the call up thanks to the injuries, and has been superb in the M's rotation. Opponents are hitting just .198 off of him over 31 innings and Ford has a sparkling 1.74 ERA to show for it. Hall moved to the rotation midseason and posted a 3.88 ERA over 13 starts. Ford, Hall, and Jeifry Nunez will be relied upon for Seattle in this series.
Offensively, the Mariners are masters of getting on base and play station to station baseball. They finished just 11th in the AL in extra base hits, but they led the league in OBP, sacrifice hits, and finished 2nd in stolen bases. It's a throwback style that baseball traditionalists are loving. The stolen base totals look nice, but they also lead the big leagues with 55 time caught stealing, meanwhile the Royals are one of the better teams at limiting stolen bases.
Meanwhile, the reigning American League Champions enter the postseason with 102 wins and their third straight division title and fifth straight postseason appearance. For the second consecutive season, the Royals came back from a nine game defecit behind the Cleveland Indians to win the division, this time with a convincing five game victory. The team hit their low point in June, going just 14-13 and being swept by the Mariners as they fell nine games behind the Tribe. They rebounded thought, going an AL-best 43-22 after the All-Star break and once again looking like the favorite in the American League.
The Royals third-ranked offense is similar to Seattle in the aspect that they don't hit home runs - they ranked 9th in the league in that stat. Despite that, Kansas finished #1 in Extra Base Hits. This was sparked by an unlikely source, 3B Hardland Guenette. Guenette went off this season, hitting a league leading 56 doubles and scoring 124 runs, while batting an insane .333/.415/.548. His 8.1 WAR more than doubled his previous career high of 3.5. Jorge Vargas still played a huge role despite a down year for his standards, hitting JUST 33 home runs and driving in 121 runs with a 5.7 WAR.
Kansas City pairs their offense with one of the league's best pitching staffs. They finished top 2 in Runs Allowed, Starters ERA, Bullpen ERA, FIP, and Pitching WAR. It's difficult to find a weakness in their staff, although it should be noted that the Mariners did rough up Vicente Corado and Dakota Hudson in the regular season.
Looking at the season series, Kansas City took four of seven games from the Mariners, with each team sweeping the other at home. That could be a sign that home field will be important for this series, but it shouldn't be overlooked that those two series happened during each teams highest of highs and lowest of lows of the season. Looking at the larger sample size, Kansas City is one of the league's best road teams, whereas the Mariners struggle away from Safeco Field...I mean Amazon Prime Park. (really???)
Pivotal Questions
What kind of late game fireworks will we see? Thanks to injuries, but bullpens are thin and could make it difficult to close out games.
Will Kansas City go with a bat or arm? Jorge Parra was a spark in his August call up in the catcher platoon, but his arm could hurt against a team like Seattle that runs more than any team in baseball.
How will the Mariners get on base? The league's leading OBP team goes against a Kansas City staff that issued the least walks in all of PBA (and it wasn't even close - they issued 52 less walks than the next closest team, Milwaukee). A Mariners team that doesn't hit for the gaps or much power may struggle to generate offense against a staff that doesn't issue free passes.
Prediction
We aren't predicting a repeat of last season's sweep, but this just isn't a good matchup for the Mariners. The Mariners may steal one at the legendary APP, but we predict them struggling to score and the Royals winning in five games.