2028 NLDS Preview: Brewers vs. Giants

[Grubs - Philly]

Milwaukee Brewers (115-47) vs. San Francisco Giants (94-68)

If the Brewers don’t win the World Series this year, they’ve underachieved. There’s little else to say. The Giants might have the sentimental advantage, have tangled in a hard-fought division battle all year, and they can play with anyone when things are clicking. Problem is, they just clicked and it’s hard to keep the momentum against a team like Milwaukee. But there’s a reason we play the games.

Brewers bats vs. Giants pitching



If the Brewers have a weakness, it’s that their lineup doesn’t scare the hell out of opposing pitchers. Like many great teams, however, Milwaukee has assembled a group of bats that is greater than the sum of its parts. Rodolfo Rivera, Greg Jacks and Luis Rivera are a formidable 2-3-4 run against righties, and Quadir Murriel is an on-base oriented leadoff man whose sloth-like baserunning doesn’t seem to have hurt the Brewers. Danny Tamarro is good right now. Against lefties, Orlando Arcia is a serviceable leadoff option and Mike Becker jumps in for Luis Rivera on the short side of the first base platoon. The Brewers baserunning isn’t great.

The Giants pitching staff strikes out a lot of guys. And while Mekhi Lias has been as unlucky with pitching BABIP as teammate Kelyn Klattenburger with hitting, he’s been winning games. Shane Baz and rookie stud Alfredo Estevez are elite and can go toe-to-toe with the top of Milwaukee’s rotation. Rookie Evan Orcutt has been starting since August and has been a revelation. He hasn’t allowed more than a run in his past five starts. The Giants are without a lockdown closer, though Ricky Valencia has been terrific in a super reliever role and the bullpen is generally deep. Both teams play good defense, and the Giants are solid up the middle. Juan Campos in left is a bit of a sore spot.



Giants bats vs. Brewers pitching


San Francisco’s lineup is capable of much more than its produced this year. Kelyn Klattenburger has been plagued by BABIP troubles and Nelle Willemsen dealt with a tough shoulder injury that kept him on the bench for weeks. Both Klattenburger and Mike Knox head into the playoffs riding a cold streak. While Juan Campos exploded, the rest of the lineup did its normal, balanced thing. Like the Brewers, the Giants aren’t great on the base paths, so the odd gaffe or stolen base by either team could play an outsized role in the series.

It’s hard to explain how good Milwaukee’s pitching staff is. It ranks among the best ever, with a strong argument for the top spot. The Brewers have five pitchers with a WHIP below 1.00 and another three below 1.03. There’s no pitcher on staff with an opponents’ batting average above .251 or an ERA above 3.78. And they were better last year. Mike Arnold remains a generational talent with the ability to be the best the league has ever seen. He’s already better than Eric Peña and shows no sign of the volatility that’s plagued the Nats’ ace. The rest of the rotation has come down to Earth since last year and shows some vulnerability to the longball. They hand it off to a dominant bullpen that features Blayne Enlow and Joe Dyck as the two most fearsome arms of the three-armed monster that includes Mike Gaylord. The Brewers play quality defense, with their corner outfield play being the weak link.



Season series: San Francisco took four of seven, including three of the last four games of the season.

Prediction: The Giants just displayed the ability to set the Brewers on their heels. Of course, that’s part of the problem. It’s unlikely to happen immediately again. Milwaukee could sweep anyone, but San Francisco doesn’t have that vibe right now. Brewers in 6.



Questions for Dave Twibell:



What’s your overall assessment of your years at the helm of San Francisco? You’ve been almost eternally competitive, but that World Series title has proven elusive.

Would you alter your GM strategy or do you feel like a World Series title was always close at hand?

What was the key to your three-game run against the Brewers and can you replicate it again so soon?



What’s your favorite trade, signing or draft pick?

Questions for Luke Grimmelbein

:

Kenny McMahon is on a hot streak, but you’ve sent him to the bullpen in favor of David Meeks’ left arm. Will that change if the first three games don’t go as you’d like?

Do you plan to have a shorter leash for non-Hawkeye starters?

Will you stick with a straight platoon at first base or will Luis Rivera get some ABs against lefties?

Is the crowd booing, or are they just chanting “Luuuuuuuuke”?

[sfdave]

What’s your overall assessment of your years at the helm of San Francisco? You’ve been almost eternally competitive, but that World Series title has proven elusive. I tend to rationalize that the playoffs are more of a crapshoot than the regular season, so playing well and getting to the playoffs is generally all I can hope for and then it's just time to roll the dice. But there's no denying we seem to routinely come up short in some bruising playoff series. We've been knocked out in game 7 twice and have been reasonably close in a couple others.  I've never been able to find a consistent flaw I can address to change this - it just seems like every season we fall a bit short. I'm really hoping whoever takes over SF can figure it out and finally get the team a WS win.

Would you alter your GM strategy or do you feel like a World Series title was always close at hand? I've always felt SF was a balanced team with good players and a shot to win the WS. I didn't really build the team to just compete in our odd park or adopt any quirky strategy that might explain why we haven't won a title. I think I probably could have been more active on the trade front - moving some high-end prospects for older talent, but my default is usually the other way around; trading older guys for prospects and then trying to develop them. Overall, I don't think I'd probably change much. To me the fun has always been in taking a struggling team and trying to turn it around into a consistent winner, and I feel like I was able to do that in SF.

What was the key to your three-game run against the Brewers and can you replicate it again so soon? You really don't beat the Brewers. You just hang in there and hope you get lucky. I've got some ideas we're going to try out, but in the end, talent usually wins out even in a single series and the Brewers have more of it than any other team in the league. We'll need a lot of luck to get past them.

What’s your favorite trade, signing or draft pick? That's a tough one. The Baz, Valdez, and Klatt trades all had a huge impact on our team, but probably my fav is Juan Campos. He was a 4th rd pick and didn't really look all that promising, but he just caught fire in my system. I'm biased, but I think he's one of the better hitters in the league now. For me at least, there's just always something enjoyable about finding a guy nobody really wants and developing him into a decent player (even though it's usually more about RNG than anything I've done).

[brewersgm]

Aug 15, 2022 8:55:44 GMT -5 Grubs - Philly said:

Questions for Luke Grimmelbein

:

Kenny McMahon is on a hot streak, but you’ve sent him to the bullpen in favor of David Meeks’ left arm. Will that change if the first three games don’t go as you’d like?

Do you plan to have a shorter leash for non-Hawkeye starters?

Will you stick with a straight platoon at first base or will Luis Rivera get some ABs against lefties?

Is the crowd booing, or are they just chanting “Luuuuuuuuke”?

1. It's certainly possible but I like having at least one lefty go in the rotation. The Giants are about 40 points in OPS worse vs lefties, and Meeks has had two strong starts against them this season. He's also been pretty good in the playoffs in the past, whereas McMahon is untested. But it's the playoffs so we'll do whatever it takes to try and put ourselves in a good position to win.

2. Probably not. What we've done so far has worked so if it ain't broke don't fix it.

3. We may start Luis against lefties but there is another Rivera we want to try and make sure is in the lineup. Simple put I don't trust the manager bot to pinch hit Rodolfo Rivera once a lefty starter comes out of the game (Bobby Dalbec flashbacks), and even though Rodolfo hasn't been great against lefties, we need to make sure his bat is in every game. Becker will start vs lefties regardless, he's one of our better RH bats.

4. They are chanting Yoooooeeeeelllllllk for Yoelkis Cespedes who has been very solid for us after we traded for him at the deadline. The fans are happy to have him back.