2028 NLDS Preview: Dodgers vs. Phillies

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Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67) vs Philadelphia Phillies (93-69)

The Dodgers may have won less games than last year but it was enough to capture the division by a single game and continue the tradition of trading NL West titles every other year with the Giants. Joey Wentz pitched a gem and Willie Calhoun's solo shot was enough to beat the Padres 1-0 and win the division on the last day of the season. The Dodgers have now made the playoffs 5 years in a row and are looking to win their 3rd World Series title in 4 years. Meanwhile the Phillies won the NL East over the upstart ghost Braves despite the best efforts of 3B and GM extraordinaire Juan Gestoso. Seth Beer is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2024, and this time he has some new friends, only 6 Phillies remain from the 2024 team. This will be the 2nd playoff meeting between the two teams, they played a thrilling NLDS in 2020 which the Phillies took in 7 games. With 6 players who hit at least 43 homers across these teams, the series looks to be a slug fest.

Lineups

Dodgers:

The two best Dodgers hitters were new additions to the team this year, Joe DeCarlo and Federico Pando. DeCarlo was signed as a FA after being on the Phillies last year, and all he did was hit 48 homers, the 3rd most by a Dodger in PBA history. DeCarlo usually hits lefties better but had a reverse split this year which should help against the Phillies RH starters. Pando was acquired in a shrewd trade, where the Dodgers used their financial resources to take on expensive pitcher contracts from the Blue Jays in exchange for the star DH. Pando hit 51 homers in total this season and a had a whopping 167 RBI. He set the PBA single season record for Total Bases with 421, over 2.6 bases per game. Besides these super stars the Dodgers had 6 other regulars with at least a 100 wRC+. Notably Hyo-sang Choo was the best hitting catcher in the NL and Jorge Ramos chipped in another 20 HR season from RF. The Dodgers were also the best team on the basepaths in the NL. It added up to tied for scoring the 2nd most runs in the league. If there is one flaw for the Dodgers it was that they hit 46 points worse in OPS vs lefties, which is surprising considering the amount of RH bats on the team. The Phillies carry 4 LHP so they may be able to exploit this some.

Phillies:

The Phillies have arguably the best collection of young position player talent in the PBA. Bobby Siegel and Isaiah High were a couple of late first round HS picks who have blossomed into stars.  Luis "Stud" Morales was a big international FA signing who has panned out. All are 24 or younger, and all hit for 40+ homers and drove in 100+ runs. Not surprisingly all made the all star team this year. In his first full season as a starter Siegel led the NL in OPS, wOBA, Slugging, ISO, EBH, Runs, Total Bases, and tied for the lead in HR. The pride of Cape May County Tech was the best hitter in the National League. He didn't lead in RBI leaving that to teammate Stud Morales. Morales has often been maligned by the Philly Phaithful for failing to live up to his rookie 2025 season when he slashed 304/352/642 on his way to ROY. But this year Stud was back to that form putting up his 2nd 6 WAR season and setting a career high with 49 homers and a career low in strikeout rate. Isaiah High and his 43 homers would be the best young hitter on a lot of teams but not these Phillies. He had a strong 4 WAR year in his first full season. No discussion of the Phillies is complete without mentioning Seth Beer, the future HOF is 31 but he casually put up yet another 6 WAR season giving the Phillies 3 players with that distinction. It's not surprising that the Phillies tied LA for the 2nd most runs in the NL, however they had a 10 point higher wOBA good for 2nd in the NL to the Dodgers 4th.

Advantage: Phillies, but its a slimmer margin than you might think. The Phillies will be neutralized some by the amount of LH starters the Dodgers carry. Siegel, Beer and Morales are still good hitters vs lefties but don't crush them as much as they do RHP. This will also force leadoff hitter Alex Agurre into a smaller role.

Defenses

Dodgers:

The Dodgers got positive ZR out of their OF and catcher spots, but negative ZR from every other position. It added up to a middling defense with the 8th best efficiency in the NL. Jeren Kendall remains the best fielding CFer the PBA has ever seen and may be on his way to an 8th gold glove despite only playing in 113 games. However he is somewhat offset by Luis Urias who is a butcher at 2nd, and was almost as bad there as Kendall was good in center. Neither Nick Allen nor Amin Valdez were great at SS although they weren't killer either. Fortunately for the Dodgers this Phillies team figures to hit a ton of fly ball this series which should play to LA's defensive strengths.

Phillies:

The Phillies lack a little on defensive fundamentals. They were one of the worst teams for defensive efficiency in the PBA. Only the Nats and White Sox had worse defenses by efficiency. They were largely dragged down by Bobby Witt Jr being a black hole at SS with a -18.8 ZR mark. However that's not to say they didn't have bright spots. Morales was in the positives in CF ZR for the first time since his rookie year and catcher Juan Herrera is one of best framers in the league. Still in a matchup of two powerful offenses the Phillies inability to pick the ball will hurt.

Advantage: Dodgers. The Dodgers defense is merely average compared to the Phillies bad defense. The Phillies hitting approach should also play to the strong parts of the Dodgers D.


Pitching

Dodgers:

Starters-

The Dodgers continue to love left handed starters and it's hard to say it hasn't worked out for them. They will send only one RH starter out this series, Grayson Rodriguez. Grayson was acquired from the Twins last year and really came into his own this year pitching to a 3.19 ERA across 32 starts. The Dodgers have another Rodriguez in their rotation as well, the veteran Eduardo Rodriguez. ERod is one of the best control artists in the league and is extremely tough on left handed hitters with his ability to paint the corners. He had a higher ERA than normal against them this year but FIP says that was likely bad luck. Behind these two the Dodgers will run out Joey Wentz and Thomas Szapucki, both acquired via trade. Wentz is a former Phillie whose flyball approach didn't fit in Citizen's Bank Park. He was traded for Juan Herrera in 2025. He'll have some extra motivation to pitch well against his old team. Szapucki was acquired as salary dump in the Pando trade but that is too harsh to him. He's a very capable mid-rotation starter but at 18 million he wasn't worth that to the Blue Jays. He had a solid 2 WAR 3.80 ERA season across the two teams although he was better with the Jays.

Bullpen-

The Dodgers bullpen is excellent, carrying a 3.34 mark, good for the 3rd lowest in the NL. They are led by closer Ismael, "Penguin" Robles who is a postseason monster with a PBA record 18 postseason saves and a 1.25 postseason ERA. If the Dodgers get to the 9th inning with a lead it's likely over for the Phillies short of a warm front coming in. Bobby Spong and Arturo Pedroza form a lethal R/L backend behind Robles. Spong was only 4 strikeouts away from tying Grayson Rodriguez for the team lead. Giovanny Gallegos, Osiris Ramirez and Edgar E. Garcia form a capable middle relief corps, all with ERA's under 4. Garcia can also function as a swingman and was on the last Phillies team that made the playoffs. If that's not enough the Dodgers also have a capable RH and LH specialist group in Nick Burdi and Eric Groves.

Phillies:

Starters-

Starting pitching was a sore spot for the Phillies as they had a 5.22 ERA, good for 12th in the NL. Doug Dombroski took a step back from last season and ran a 5.82 ERA. The Phillies still have hope for the young left hander but a playoff start this year may not be likely to happen. One Phillie who took a step forward was Jhoan Duran. Duran has been with the team since 2025 and had his best season as a starter since then. He struck out 183 hitters over 187.1 IP en route to a 3.94 ERA year and a 3.3 WAR season. He's eager to make his playoff debut in a Phillies uniform and will get the nod game 1. Behind Duran the Phillies look to send rookie Chris Cammett. Cammet is a lefty who throws hard and has 5 different pitches in his repertoire. A rough September dragged down his yearly numbers but he did manage to put up 1.3 WAR in only 13 starts.  After Cammett will come Jay Tudor. Tudor was good against righties but really struggled with lefties this season. He's still working on developing his change up to have a better weapon for them. The Phillies 4th starter looks to be John, "Mauler," Martel. Martel made only one start all season for the Phillies so it's difficult to know what to expect from him.

Bullpen-

The Phillies may want to have quick hooks for their starters this series because their bullpen is much better. Their bullpen ERA was almost 2 runs lower than their starters ERA. A.J. Masucci has been a starter in the past but this year converted fully to a reliever. He put up 4 WAR across 86 appearances to go along with 166 strikeouts so this looks like a decent decision on the Phillies part. The hometown hero is capable of going multiple innings so the Phillies goal this series will be to get him the ball with a lead. Josh Agboola and Juan Carrizales round out the backend of the Phillies pen. The last time the Phillies made the playoffs Carrizales was pitching against them in a Cubs uniform. He's generally been a great postseason pitcher forming the heart of many formidable Cubs bullpens. He's had a 2.08 ERA since coming over to the Phillies this year at the trade deadline. Josh Agboola didn't have a place on the Brewers but on the Phillies he's found a home, striking out 93 hitters this season. He can be wild at times but with Juan Herrera's help behind the dish he's pitched to a 3.50 ERA. Jordan Butler and Cole Ragans give the Phillies two good LH reliever options, which are always important to have in the postseason.

Advantage: Dodgers. Although both teams scored the same amount of runs, the Phillies allowed 78 more thanks to iffy SP and bad defense. None of the Phillies starters outside of Duran have ever pitched in the postseason. To win this series the Phillies are going to have to out slug the Dodgers. The Dodgers were 9th in the NL in home runs allowed though which could be an issue against this Phillies team in Citizen's Bank Park.

Key Questions:

Can the Phillies starters hold up long enough to get the ball to the bullpen? DeCarlo and Pando are licking their chops.

How well can the Dodgers LHP neutralize Beer, Siegel, and Morales?

With so much slugging, which team will win the home run battle across the series?


Prediction: The regular season was tied 3-3 but ultimately I think the Dodgers take this series going the other way. It's gonna be hard for either team's pitching staff to hold up, but I think the Dodgers do just enough and take advantage of having home-field this series at their pitcher's park. Dodgers in 7.