2028 ALCS Preview: Royals vs Blue Jays
Aug 20, 2022 13:54:30 GMT -5
brewersgm and mikereds like this
Post by Commissioner Erick on Aug 20, 2022 13:54:30 GMT -5
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays
If the upcoming Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays ALCS is anything like previous series between the teams, we could be in for a treat. The clubs have a long playoff history together, with their matchups resulting in unmitigated joy for the Blue Jays and heartbreak for the Royals.
The modern editions of the two teams each first made the postseason in 2022 when the clubs met in the AL Wild Card Game. Toronto roughed up Austin Gomber a bit and their bullpen hung on for a 4-3 win to advance to the ALDS.
They met again in the 2024 ALCS, a PBA classic. Kansas City jumped out to a commanding 2-0 series lead and had a 2-0 Game 3 lead late in the pivotal contest. A key Taylor Walls infield hit, steal and advancement on a Gary Sanchez error got the Blue Jays on the board, then they loaded the bases with one out in the eighth—and couldn’t bring home the tying run with Tyler Lyons stranding two. There was confusion as to why Lyons stayed on in the ninth to face Toronto’s big right-handed sluggers, and Jake Burger and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit back-to-back homers to walk off Toronto and change the course of history.
Toronto would take a 3-2 lead in the series, Kansas City would stave off a furious Game 6 comeback to get the series to the distance, then the teams battled in a Game 7 for the ages. The royals jumped out to a 6-3 lead, beating up German Marquez and taking advantage of two Logan Warmoth errors. Lyons was again great early in his relief stint, working a perfect seventh and eighth, and again, inexplicably left on for the ninth. Guerrero hit Lyons’ last pitch of the season 418 feet to left-center field for a game-tying three-run home run. In the bottom of the ninth, Gary Sanchez—who had been having a huge postseason until that Game 7, struck out with the bases loaded to send it to extras.
In the 11th innings, Jake Burger got out in front of an Alex Colome but had enough bat control to hook it down the left field line for a go-ahead home run. Sanchez again batted in the bottom of the inning with the bases full and two outs. Tristan Casas struck him out, advanced Toronto to the World Series, and five games later, celebrated with his teammates as 2024 champions. Daniel Kent and his players had to deal with the incredible disappointment of being so close and having it slip away.
For good measure, the two teams met again the next year in the Wild Card Game. There would be little drama and no late heroics in this one. Toronto blasted C.J. Hoover and KC’s early relievers behind three hits from Guerrero and Drouet, and homers from Guerrero, Estevan Floriel, and playoff sensation Rowdy Tellez. KC battled back to make it close, but Toronto won 10-7 in the last time they’d advance in a playoff series.
Toronto stagnated and slipped after that season behind bloated expenses and an aging core. Kansas City brushed off disappointing playoff performances to dominate the 2027 ALDS and ALCS and come a blown lead away from the 2027 title. Kansas City looks focused and ferocious, and despite being pushed to seven ALDS games, won their four contests in blowout fashion. Toronto still has that championship core and the high end talent to win in the playoffs, as the Boston Red Sox found out.
Kansas City may be the best team this series, but they have to contend with both the Toronto Blue Jays—and history—to return to the World Series.
Royals Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Kansas City excels at controlling the plate. They walk the most times in the AL and strikeout at the fourth lowest rate. They’re also only middle-of-the-pack in homers, with Jorge Vargas accounting for most of their power. They have a good BABIP and also put more balls in play than most, playing a different brand of baseball than most teams play. They’ll stress Toronto’s defense immensely, especially since Toronto was the fifth worst defense in the AL this year.
Toronto only has one left-handed pitcher on the staff, so Kansas City will deploy its lineup against righties every game this series. Four hitters hit .296 or better, and everyone had at least 20 doubles except mid-season callup Bryce Zettel, who had 19. Humberto Camacho popped 36, Vargas clubbed 43, and Harland Guenette smashed 56 two-baggers.
Toronto has three top-flight pitchers on its staff, and will need some good fortune from the rest of its arms. Danny Richardson is the ace and he’s alternated two very good starts with one okay start this postseason. He also controls the zone exceptionally well meaning a ton of balls in play should occur when he faces the Royals’ lineup. Richardson led the league in BABIP though.
Toronto’s other starters are Darge Gakere, Art Gomez, and German Marquez. Gakere and Gomez’ big weaknesses are home runs, so they may have success against the Royals because of that fact. Gomez limits walks as well and isn’t a big strikeout arm, so he’ll have to depend on pitches not going for doubles. Gakere owes a lot of success to his strikeout rate, something that likely won’t play against Kansas City though. He may struggle trying to find ways to get Kansas City out on pitches that aren’t strike three.
German Marquez will likely only start a single game this series. He’s only made three starts this year, has historically bad playoff numbers, and was extremely hittable when last used as a starter most of the year. He does have good control, which helps vs the Royals, but isn’t dynamic enough to trust against Kansas City’s bats.
If Toronto had a better outfield defense, it’s possible to expect better results, but the Blue Jays don’t have the top-tier arms to break Kansas City’s plate control, nor the defense to handle the expected Royals BABIP wins. Kansas City’s best sluggers are left-handed too, which will hurt when Gomez and Gakere face Vargas and Sattler. A lot of Toronto’s fortune will need to come down to hit sequencing, and dominating Xavier Edwards and Jonathan Bakos so Vargas doesn’t come up with men on.
Toronto has some hope if they have late leads. Billy McKay had a very good series against Boston, and Travis Crombie is a fantastic arm finally in fantastic health. McKay keeps the ball in the park, and on the ground, and has a 2.84 ERA this postseason. Crombie allowed a single run this season and has explosive He has the stuff to dominate even Kansas City’s hitters.
The rest of Toronto’s pen is a question. Chris Gentry is the lone lefty and will see a lot of action. He’s homer prone and has a high BABIP, losing battles when he doesn’t get strikeouts. He’s the kind of pitcher who should struggle against KC.
Mike Gianquinto has had a good postseason so far, but he’s incredibly wild. Lodewjck de Leeuw isn’t polished enough yet, while Yukitsuro Okubo is too limited. Juan Robles may be a solid play. He has exceptional stuff and has great control, and his extreme homer-prone nature may be mitigated by Kansas City’s approach.
Kansas City isn’t exceptionally aggressive as a base-stealing club when Jahmai Jones isn’t in the lineup. Edwards is the only player with 20-plus steals, and Sanchez is good at throwing runners out.
The only bench move Kansas City will likely make is maybe pinch hitting Jones for Camacho against Gentry. Jones struggled for the Royals but is a solid bat with surprising pop for a Center fielder.
Jelfry Marte will likely see a lot of playing time for Toronto because of his glove, regardless of whether he starts or not.
BABIP will play a huge part in this series, which tends to help an underdog. Kansas City has already showcased what they can do against lesser arms, and Toronto doesn’t have the defense to excel in a BABIP-oriented environment. Expect the Royals to score.
Blue Jays Offense versus Royals Pitching
With former Blue Jay T.J. Zeuch going three times in the ALDS, he’ll need time to recover, meaning, Kansas City will likely throw three lefties out in the series. Dakota Hudson and C.J. Hoover are also options, though Hoover has been homer-prone and has had bad history against Toronto.
A lefty-heavy approach is dangerous against Toronto with their three biggest power-hitters—Gary Sanchez, Vladimir Guerrero, and Jake Burger—and best contact hitter batting from the right side. Does Kansas City want to lose the platoon advantage against Toronto’s best hitters? On the other hand, Seattle was pulverized in the ALDS by Toronto’s unheralded, young, raw, left-handed supporting cast. Ron Ryser hit .440 with a pair of homers, Joel Evans hit .407 with three doubles, Pal Khan got on base at a .433 clip, and while not young, Leodys Taveras got on base at a .600 clip. Toronto’s best hitters can produce against anyone and the supporting cast may struggle without the platoon advantage. On the other hand, Kansas City’s pitchers are better than Seattle’s and they may want to limit the stars’ production while trusting they can shutdown a bunch of kids with a platoon advantage. It’ll be a fun call.
If Kansas City does go with a rotation heavy on Vicente Corado, Taylor Lehman, and Tyler Alexander, then Toronto will likely bring Jelfry Marte in to play Shortstop over Evans, which weakens the lineup, but improves Toronto’s defense against a team that puts everything in play. Leodys Taveras also comes in for Pal Khan, likely a net neutral on defense.
No matter what hand Kansas City’s pitchers will throw with, the royals have a type. Extremely low walks, extremely low homers, low strikeouts, and a trust that the defense will come through. Zeuch allowed just 10 homers all year, including 18.1 homerless innings in the ALDS. Alexander is an all-timer in walk rate, and both Lehman and Hudson are fantastic at keeping things in the park. Corado is the mold-breaker, a prospect with huge stuff and is still working out his command. Even so, his homer and walk rates were solid—he’ll just get strikeouts to boot.
Kansas City’s bullpen leans heavily right-handed, but as a unit, they allow a few more home runs and walks. They’ll have a lot of good matchups to use against Toronto’s sluggers, with Alex Claudio maybe better served situationally against the lefties.
Kansas City’s defense was solid. Third in Zone Rating, though eighth in Defensive Efficiency. The outfield defense is better than the infield defense with Humberto Camacho and Jahmai Jones patrolling Center Field. That’s probably not great against Drouet, but will help against the heart of the lineup.
The Blue Jays will run often and Kansas City was good at throwing out base-stealers. That subplot could loom large.
Season Series:
Toronto won the season series 4-3, splitting four at home very early in the year before taking two of three ain Kansas City in late August. Kansas City struggled to begin the year, and Toronto was under absentee management and traded many players in that series, so it’s hard to take too much from it. For example, Tristan Casas, Andrew Bolden, and Federico Pando had a huge hand in Toronto’s two wins. Zeuch and Corado struggled, but Corado was very early in his career. Dakota Hudson and Tyler Alexander pitched well in Kansas City’s wins.
The August series is more illuminating for what to expect. Toronto one the opener 8-6 behind 14 hits. Tristan Casas and Anderson A. Tejada both homered in the game, though Tejada doesn’t play much for Toronto anymore, and Casa is hurt. The Blue Jays did show their own ability to get a number of hits on balls-in-play that game. Toronto took the middle game with a 4-0 shutout where Toronto was an out-away from a combined no-hitter. Gakere, Gianquinto, de Leeuw, and Marquez combined to strike out 13 Royals with only a Jorge Vargas two out double in the ninth spoiling the no-no bid. Kansas City got stellar pitching to take the finale, with Zeuch allowing three hits and one run in 6.2 innings. It was tied late, but a Guenette and Bakos hit back-to-back doubles in the seventh to give Kansas City a 2-1 lead, and Jones singled, stole second, and scored on a Zettel single to give the Royals their final 3-1 margin.
Deciding question:
Will the Royals overextend a left-hander to face Toronto’s sluggers in key moments late in games?
Can Toronto’s defense slow down Kansas City’s expected doubles parade?
Can Toronto’s high-volatility arms win the plate zone battle and get strikeouts and weak contact?
Prediction:
Kansas City has the deeper roster and is healthier than Boston was. Toronto extends it to seven, but runs out of arms. Royals 4-3.
If the upcoming Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays ALCS is anything like previous series between the teams, we could be in for a treat. The clubs have a long playoff history together, with their matchups resulting in unmitigated joy for the Blue Jays and heartbreak for the Royals.
The modern editions of the two teams each first made the postseason in 2022 when the clubs met in the AL Wild Card Game. Toronto roughed up Austin Gomber a bit and their bullpen hung on for a 4-3 win to advance to the ALDS.
They met again in the 2024 ALCS, a PBA classic. Kansas City jumped out to a commanding 2-0 series lead and had a 2-0 Game 3 lead late in the pivotal contest. A key Taylor Walls infield hit, steal and advancement on a Gary Sanchez error got the Blue Jays on the board, then they loaded the bases with one out in the eighth—and couldn’t bring home the tying run with Tyler Lyons stranding two. There was confusion as to why Lyons stayed on in the ninth to face Toronto’s big right-handed sluggers, and Jake Burger and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit back-to-back homers to walk off Toronto and change the course of history.
Toronto would take a 3-2 lead in the series, Kansas City would stave off a furious Game 6 comeback to get the series to the distance, then the teams battled in a Game 7 for the ages. The royals jumped out to a 6-3 lead, beating up German Marquez and taking advantage of two Logan Warmoth errors. Lyons was again great early in his relief stint, working a perfect seventh and eighth, and again, inexplicably left on for the ninth. Guerrero hit Lyons’ last pitch of the season 418 feet to left-center field for a game-tying three-run home run. In the bottom of the ninth, Gary Sanchez—who had been having a huge postseason until that Game 7, struck out with the bases loaded to send it to extras.
In the 11th innings, Jake Burger got out in front of an Alex Colome but had enough bat control to hook it down the left field line for a go-ahead home run. Sanchez again batted in the bottom of the inning with the bases full and two outs. Tristan Casas struck him out, advanced Toronto to the World Series, and five games later, celebrated with his teammates as 2024 champions. Daniel Kent and his players had to deal with the incredible disappointment of being so close and having it slip away.
For good measure, the two teams met again the next year in the Wild Card Game. There would be little drama and no late heroics in this one. Toronto blasted C.J. Hoover and KC’s early relievers behind three hits from Guerrero and Drouet, and homers from Guerrero, Estevan Floriel, and playoff sensation Rowdy Tellez. KC battled back to make it close, but Toronto won 10-7 in the last time they’d advance in a playoff series.
Toronto stagnated and slipped after that season behind bloated expenses and an aging core. Kansas City brushed off disappointing playoff performances to dominate the 2027 ALDS and ALCS and come a blown lead away from the 2027 title. Kansas City looks focused and ferocious, and despite being pushed to seven ALDS games, won their four contests in blowout fashion. Toronto still has that championship core and the high end talent to win in the playoffs, as the Boston Red Sox found out.
Kansas City may be the best team this series, but they have to contend with both the Toronto Blue Jays—and history—to return to the World Series.
Royals Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Kansas City excels at controlling the plate. They walk the most times in the AL and strikeout at the fourth lowest rate. They’re also only middle-of-the-pack in homers, with Jorge Vargas accounting for most of their power. They have a good BABIP and also put more balls in play than most, playing a different brand of baseball than most teams play. They’ll stress Toronto’s defense immensely, especially since Toronto was the fifth worst defense in the AL this year.
Toronto only has one left-handed pitcher on the staff, so Kansas City will deploy its lineup against righties every game this series. Four hitters hit .296 or better, and everyone had at least 20 doubles except mid-season callup Bryce Zettel, who had 19. Humberto Camacho popped 36, Vargas clubbed 43, and Harland Guenette smashed 56 two-baggers.
Toronto has three top-flight pitchers on its staff, and will need some good fortune from the rest of its arms. Danny Richardson is the ace and he’s alternated two very good starts with one okay start this postseason. He also controls the zone exceptionally well meaning a ton of balls in play should occur when he faces the Royals’ lineup. Richardson led the league in BABIP though.
Toronto’s other starters are Darge Gakere, Art Gomez, and German Marquez. Gakere and Gomez’ big weaknesses are home runs, so they may have success against the Royals because of that fact. Gomez limits walks as well and isn’t a big strikeout arm, so he’ll have to depend on pitches not going for doubles. Gakere owes a lot of success to his strikeout rate, something that likely won’t play against Kansas City though. He may struggle trying to find ways to get Kansas City out on pitches that aren’t strike three.
German Marquez will likely only start a single game this series. He’s only made three starts this year, has historically bad playoff numbers, and was extremely hittable when last used as a starter most of the year. He does have good control, which helps vs the Royals, but isn’t dynamic enough to trust against Kansas City’s bats.
If Toronto had a better outfield defense, it’s possible to expect better results, but the Blue Jays don’t have the top-tier arms to break Kansas City’s plate control, nor the defense to handle the expected Royals BABIP wins. Kansas City’s best sluggers are left-handed too, which will hurt when Gomez and Gakere face Vargas and Sattler. A lot of Toronto’s fortune will need to come down to hit sequencing, and dominating Xavier Edwards and Jonathan Bakos so Vargas doesn’t come up with men on.
Toronto has some hope if they have late leads. Billy McKay had a very good series against Boston, and Travis Crombie is a fantastic arm finally in fantastic health. McKay keeps the ball in the park, and on the ground, and has a 2.84 ERA this postseason. Crombie allowed a single run this season and has explosive He has the stuff to dominate even Kansas City’s hitters.
The rest of Toronto’s pen is a question. Chris Gentry is the lone lefty and will see a lot of action. He’s homer prone and has a high BABIP, losing battles when he doesn’t get strikeouts. He’s the kind of pitcher who should struggle against KC.
Mike Gianquinto has had a good postseason so far, but he’s incredibly wild. Lodewjck de Leeuw isn’t polished enough yet, while Yukitsuro Okubo is too limited. Juan Robles may be a solid play. He has exceptional stuff and has great control, and his extreme homer-prone nature may be mitigated by Kansas City’s approach.
Kansas City isn’t exceptionally aggressive as a base-stealing club when Jahmai Jones isn’t in the lineup. Edwards is the only player with 20-plus steals, and Sanchez is good at throwing runners out.
The only bench move Kansas City will likely make is maybe pinch hitting Jones for Camacho against Gentry. Jones struggled for the Royals but is a solid bat with surprising pop for a Center fielder.
Jelfry Marte will likely see a lot of playing time for Toronto because of his glove, regardless of whether he starts or not.
BABIP will play a huge part in this series, which tends to help an underdog. Kansas City has already showcased what they can do against lesser arms, and Toronto doesn’t have the defense to excel in a BABIP-oriented environment. Expect the Royals to score.
Blue Jays Offense versus Royals Pitching
With former Blue Jay T.J. Zeuch going three times in the ALDS, he’ll need time to recover, meaning, Kansas City will likely throw three lefties out in the series. Dakota Hudson and C.J. Hoover are also options, though Hoover has been homer-prone and has had bad history against Toronto.
A lefty-heavy approach is dangerous against Toronto with their three biggest power-hitters—Gary Sanchez, Vladimir Guerrero, and Jake Burger—and best contact hitter batting from the right side. Does Kansas City want to lose the platoon advantage against Toronto’s best hitters? On the other hand, Seattle was pulverized in the ALDS by Toronto’s unheralded, young, raw, left-handed supporting cast. Ron Ryser hit .440 with a pair of homers, Joel Evans hit .407 with three doubles, Pal Khan got on base at a .433 clip, and while not young, Leodys Taveras got on base at a .600 clip. Toronto’s best hitters can produce against anyone and the supporting cast may struggle without the platoon advantage. On the other hand, Kansas City’s pitchers are better than Seattle’s and they may want to limit the stars’ production while trusting they can shutdown a bunch of kids with a platoon advantage. It’ll be a fun call.
If Kansas City does go with a rotation heavy on Vicente Corado, Taylor Lehman, and Tyler Alexander, then Toronto will likely bring Jelfry Marte in to play Shortstop over Evans, which weakens the lineup, but improves Toronto’s defense against a team that puts everything in play. Leodys Taveras also comes in for Pal Khan, likely a net neutral on defense.
No matter what hand Kansas City’s pitchers will throw with, the royals have a type. Extremely low walks, extremely low homers, low strikeouts, and a trust that the defense will come through. Zeuch allowed just 10 homers all year, including 18.1 homerless innings in the ALDS. Alexander is an all-timer in walk rate, and both Lehman and Hudson are fantastic at keeping things in the park. Corado is the mold-breaker, a prospect with huge stuff and is still working out his command. Even so, his homer and walk rates were solid—he’ll just get strikeouts to boot.
Kansas City’s bullpen leans heavily right-handed, but as a unit, they allow a few more home runs and walks. They’ll have a lot of good matchups to use against Toronto’s sluggers, with Alex Claudio maybe better served situationally against the lefties.
Kansas City’s defense was solid. Third in Zone Rating, though eighth in Defensive Efficiency. The outfield defense is better than the infield defense with Humberto Camacho and Jahmai Jones patrolling Center Field. That’s probably not great against Drouet, but will help against the heart of the lineup.
The Blue Jays will run often and Kansas City was good at throwing out base-stealers. That subplot could loom large.
Season Series:
Toronto won the season series 4-3, splitting four at home very early in the year before taking two of three ain Kansas City in late August. Kansas City struggled to begin the year, and Toronto was under absentee management and traded many players in that series, so it’s hard to take too much from it. For example, Tristan Casas, Andrew Bolden, and Federico Pando had a huge hand in Toronto’s two wins. Zeuch and Corado struggled, but Corado was very early in his career. Dakota Hudson and Tyler Alexander pitched well in Kansas City’s wins.
The August series is more illuminating for what to expect. Toronto one the opener 8-6 behind 14 hits. Tristan Casas and Anderson A. Tejada both homered in the game, though Tejada doesn’t play much for Toronto anymore, and Casa is hurt. The Blue Jays did show their own ability to get a number of hits on balls-in-play that game. Toronto took the middle game with a 4-0 shutout where Toronto was an out-away from a combined no-hitter. Gakere, Gianquinto, de Leeuw, and Marquez combined to strike out 13 Royals with only a Jorge Vargas two out double in the ninth spoiling the no-no bid. Kansas City got stellar pitching to take the finale, with Zeuch allowing three hits and one run in 6.2 innings. It was tied late, but a Guenette and Bakos hit back-to-back doubles in the seventh to give Kansas City a 2-1 lead, and Jones singled, stole second, and scored on a Zettel single to give the Royals their final 3-1 margin.
Deciding question:
Will the Royals overextend a left-hander to face Toronto’s sluggers in key moments late in games?
Can Toronto’s defense slow down Kansas City’s expected doubles parade?
Can Toronto’s high-volatility arms win the plate zone battle and get strikeouts and weak contact?
Prediction:
Kansas City has the deeper roster and is healthier than Boston was. Toronto extends it to seven, but runs out of arms. Royals 4-3.