2028 World Series Preview
Aug 27, 2022 8:45:28 GMT -5
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Post by Commissioner Erick on Aug 27, 2022 8:45:28 GMT -5
Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays
The Milwaukee Brewers vanquished their bitter playoff rival, the Los Angeles Dodgers, in the NLCS to return to the World Series. They won the title last year, and are looking to be the second straight PBA repeat champion. They’ll face an underdog Toronto Blue Jays team that has upset the favorite the entire postseason, knocking off the powerful Indians in the Wild Card Game, the top seed Red Sox in the ALDS, and the defending AL Champion Royals in the ALCS. If Toronto can continue their Cinderella run, they’ll be an unlikely 2028 Champion.
Brewers Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Milwaukee’s offense was monstrous in the regular season, but has taken a step back in the playoffs—particularly against right-handers, where they’ve put up a .606 OPS. Some righties have been shut down by same-side pitching, but the biggest culprits have been Will Dulihanty and Luis Rivera, who have an OPS against righties of .494 and .459 respectively this postseason. The club has hit righties well in the regular season, and the hope is that as the caliber of right-handed opposing pitchers eases up—Toronto isn’t Los Angeles or San Francisco in that regard—the struggles will ease up as well.
On the other hand, left-handed pitchers have long been a thorn in Milwaukee’s side, but they’ve handled lefties for a 1.074 OPS this postseason. Milwaukee’s gone with an 11-man staff, allowing the to stack right-handed hitters in their lineup. Bit players like Mike Becker have had huge moments against left-handed pitchers as a result.
Toronto is almost entirely right-handed, so the Brewers will run out their base lineup every game this series. Danny Richardson has been spectacular this postseason, but he was needed to close out Kansas City and will only be available for two starts most likely.
Toronto’s other starting options aren’t great. Darge Gakere has been fine, but can be homer-prone against a Brewers team that can hit home runs. He has great stuff, but Milwaukee profiles similarly to Kansas City in its ability to control the plate, and Gakere struggled against the Royals. Art Gomez struggled too, as he’s incredibly homer prone and doesn’t have the stuff to combat an elite lineup. German Marquez was fantastic as a follower against the Royals, but the outing was an aberration against Marquez’ prior playoff track record. It will be a lot asking him to repeat his performance.
In the pen, Travis Crombie has been exceptional for Toronto, but is dealing with a bad back and has had trouble staying healthy. Billy McKay and Juan Robles have been excellent in relief, while Lodewjck de Leeuw has put aside a troubling regular season to be a dominant asset for Toronto. Mike Gianquinto also has produced excellent surface stats this postseason, but a .045 BABIP is mostly to praise for his 1.00 playoff ERA, and that BABIP can not hold. Chris Gentry has been good in relief, but Milwaukee pinch hits liberally. Left-handers actually hit Gentry harder than righties, so how that battle goes should be key.
Off Milwaukee’s bench, Mike Becker and Yoelkis Cespedes are most likely to be used as pinch hitters against Gentry if the Brewers choose to go that route. Becker and Steve Eckroat can be called upon if Milwaukee wants more speed on the bases as well. Toronto’s extreme right-handed nature limits some of Milwaukee’s flexibility with its roster, but the Brewers will have depth if injuries arise.
Toronto’s defense has been more stable this postseason, and only two players have tried to run on Gary Sanchez this postseason. Milwaukee has only tried to steal three times this postseason, and likely won’t try to run much this series.
Blue Jays Hitting versus Brewers Pitching
Milwaukee’s dominant rotation has been even more dominant in the playoffs. Mike Arnold has a 1.57 ERA this postseason, dropping his career playoff mark to a sparkling 2.02. He’s allowed just a pair of solo homers this year to San Francisco rookie Mike’s Bishop and Knox. His playoff WHIP is a mesmerizing 0.61. He’s been frankly untouchable, and aside from the 2025 postseason, has been since his first full year in the PBA.
Tim Kierstead will likely take the ball in Game 2. He’s had a strong postseason, especially when allowed to be more cautious, trading a few more walks for ground balls. Right-handers have hit him a little bit better both this postseason and in his career, which may be an opportunity Toronto needs to exploit. Kierstad is an intimidating presence on the mound though, standing 6-9 and throwing an easy 95mph, and he’s held hitters to a .217 average in the playoffs.
Branden Andezler won the 2027 Cy Young Award and was an inning shy of a playoff no-hitter last NLCS. He’s allowed exactly two earned runs in all four of his playoff starts, giving opponents a low ceiling to try to attack. Lefties have hit him well this postseason, which is mildly concerning, but he’s dominated righties. Same-side hitters have a .458 playoff OPS, so he can neutralize Toronto’s most dangerous bats.
Kenny McMahon is the newcomer to the group, and the rookie acquainted himself well in an NLCS Game 1 win over the Dodgers, where he allowed one run over 6 before faltering in the 7th. He’s dominated right-handed hitters all season, and been good, but a little homer-prone against lefties this year. He’s struggled mightily on the road this season and pitched extremely well at Miller Park. He’s had moments where he’s pitched well on the road against good teams, and his only starting assignment this World Series will likely be in Game 4. If he can ride the adrenaline like he did in his first major league outing against Arizona or his final regular season start against San Francisco, he could pitch a gem of a game, but if he’s off, he’ll be hit hard like in most of his other road outings.
Milwaukee has rode Mike Gaylord and Joe Dyck this postseason, and they’ve been fantastic in the pen, combining for four Saves, three Holds, and a 2.21 ERA. Mark Warf had a disastrous Game 7 against San Francisco, but has been reliable the rest of his career. Ryan Whalen, Josh Young, David Meeks, and Blayne Enlow are also on the roster, but have been largely deemphasized this postseason. With the starters so effective, Milwaukee hasn’t needed too many long or middle relievers.
Toronto’s lineup has generally seen success from a few young lefties, Eric Drouet and Gary Sanchez, with Jake Burger having a huge ALCS against Kansas City. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .214 and hasn’t walked a single time this postseason. He has 11 RBIs and a .594 OPS. He’s clearly dangerous with men on, but hasn’t really had a good postseason. The ALCS began to expose some of the weaker Blue Jays hitters, and Milwaukee is another step up in competition.
Less-threatening, contact-first hitters have thrived for Toronto the entire postseason—Rattlesnake Drouet, Dan McDade, Joel Evans, and even though he’s not contact based, Ron Ryser had a big ALDS. If Milwaukee wants to pound the zone and take their chances against that class of hitter, Toronto has won that battle this postseason. If Milwaukee is more careful, it may lead to higher pitch counts.
The heart of the Blue Jays order has a ton of power—does it have the bat speed to turn around Hawkeye? Probably not. Kierstead and Andexler are a little less power based and more sequencing and off-speed based. Toronto’s free-swinging nature may be an asse in those battles.
Toronto has options off the bench for when Milwaukee brings in the pen. Phil Schultz and Anderson A. Tejada have left-handed pop off the bench, Pai Khan and Jelfry Marte can pinch run and play good defense, and Khan can even draw a walk against a righty, though the Brewers have excellent command. When McMahon starts, Evans moves to left and Marte moves to Shortstop, significantly improving Toronto’s infield defense and weakening their outfield defense. Ryser moves to the bench in that situation, giving Toronto more left-handed pop against Milwaukee’s right-handed relievers.
The Brewers have an excellent defense, particularly up the middle. Quadir Murriel, Noah Campbell, and Orlando Arcia should help tremendously against Rattlesnake’s preternatural ability to get base hits on weak nubbers, or hard hit grounders that aren’t fielded cleanly. Toronto doesn’t hit too many extra base hits that land in the park, but Greg Jacks should keep that in check.
The Blue Jays will run and run often. They have 10 steals this postseason in 11 tries, with Drouet stealing four in four chances, and five other Jays chipping in for the rest. Elih Marrero and the Brewers staff were excellent at preventing base-stealers—foremost by preventing baserunners—and were solid at gunning down attempted thefts. Milwaukee’s pen is good at holding runners, but the starters aren’t—17 of 19 runners were able to steal successfully against Hawkeye, astounding in that it’s hard to believe 19 baserunners got on against him all year. Only one runners has tried to steal off the Brewers all postseason with Arturo Rivera successfully stealing off Andexler in Game 2 of the NLDS. The Blue Jays will need to be aggressive on the bases to give themselves the best chance of scoring this series.
Season Series
The two teams actually played this year, with the Brewers winning a series at home 2-1 in late June. Rattlesnake had three hits, Guerrero homered off Hawkeye, and Danny Richardson and the bullpen were solid with Toronto grabbing the opener 3-2. Milwaukee turned a 3-1 deficit into a 7-3 win the next game, scoring six runs in the eighth. The Brewers battered Juan Robles and Juan Barajas and Tim Kierstead allowed a run on one hit over 7. The Brewers jumped Loeck Roenhorst in the finale with five in the first inning, capped by a Dulihanty home run. Andexler was solid, allowing three runs on three hits and the Brewers won 6-3.
Deciding Questions
Will Milwaukee’s left-handed bats have success against Toronto’s non-premium arms? This may be THE question of the series.
Can Toronto’s base-running manufacture offense?
Will Toronto’s free-swinging contact-hitters be able to get on base?
Prediction
Milwaukee’s rotation shines under the brightest of lights. Toronto’s offense gets suppressed, and Milwaukee’s bats wake up with the Giants and Dodgers arms no longer suppressing them. Danny Richardson gives Toronto a game, but the Brewers down champagne after the fifth. Brewers 4-1
The Milwaukee Brewers vanquished their bitter playoff rival, the Los Angeles Dodgers, in the NLCS to return to the World Series. They won the title last year, and are looking to be the second straight PBA repeat champion. They’ll face an underdog Toronto Blue Jays team that has upset the favorite the entire postseason, knocking off the powerful Indians in the Wild Card Game, the top seed Red Sox in the ALDS, and the defending AL Champion Royals in the ALCS. If Toronto can continue their Cinderella run, they’ll be an unlikely 2028 Champion.
Brewers Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Milwaukee’s offense was monstrous in the regular season, but has taken a step back in the playoffs—particularly against right-handers, where they’ve put up a .606 OPS. Some righties have been shut down by same-side pitching, but the biggest culprits have been Will Dulihanty and Luis Rivera, who have an OPS against righties of .494 and .459 respectively this postseason. The club has hit righties well in the regular season, and the hope is that as the caliber of right-handed opposing pitchers eases up—Toronto isn’t Los Angeles or San Francisco in that regard—the struggles will ease up as well.
On the other hand, left-handed pitchers have long been a thorn in Milwaukee’s side, but they’ve handled lefties for a 1.074 OPS this postseason. Milwaukee’s gone with an 11-man staff, allowing the to stack right-handed hitters in their lineup. Bit players like Mike Becker have had huge moments against left-handed pitchers as a result.
Toronto is almost entirely right-handed, so the Brewers will run out their base lineup every game this series. Danny Richardson has been spectacular this postseason, but he was needed to close out Kansas City and will only be available for two starts most likely.
Toronto’s other starting options aren’t great. Darge Gakere has been fine, but can be homer-prone against a Brewers team that can hit home runs. He has great stuff, but Milwaukee profiles similarly to Kansas City in its ability to control the plate, and Gakere struggled against the Royals. Art Gomez struggled too, as he’s incredibly homer prone and doesn’t have the stuff to combat an elite lineup. German Marquez was fantastic as a follower against the Royals, but the outing was an aberration against Marquez’ prior playoff track record. It will be a lot asking him to repeat his performance.
In the pen, Travis Crombie has been exceptional for Toronto, but is dealing with a bad back and has had trouble staying healthy. Billy McKay and Juan Robles have been excellent in relief, while Lodewjck de Leeuw has put aside a troubling regular season to be a dominant asset for Toronto. Mike Gianquinto also has produced excellent surface stats this postseason, but a .045 BABIP is mostly to praise for his 1.00 playoff ERA, and that BABIP can not hold. Chris Gentry has been good in relief, but Milwaukee pinch hits liberally. Left-handers actually hit Gentry harder than righties, so how that battle goes should be key.
Off Milwaukee’s bench, Mike Becker and Yoelkis Cespedes are most likely to be used as pinch hitters against Gentry if the Brewers choose to go that route. Becker and Steve Eckroat can be called upon if Milwaukee wants more speed on the bases as well. Toronto’s extreme right-handed nature limits some of Milwaukee’s flexibility with its roster, but the Brewers will have depth if injuries arise.
Toronto’s defense has been more stable this postseason, and only two players have tried to run on Gary Sanchez this postseason. Milwaukee has only tried to steal three times this postseason, and likely won’t try to run much this series.
Blue Jays Hitting versus Brewers Pitching
Milwaukee’s dominant rotation has been even more dominant in the playoffs. Mike Arnold has a 1.57 ERA this postseason, dropping his career playoff mark to a sparkling 2.02. He’s allowed just a pair of solo homers this year to San Francisco rookie Mike’s Bishop and Knox. His playoff WHIP is a mesmerizing 0.61. He’s been frankly untouchable, and aside from the 2025 postseason, has been since his first full year in the PBA.
Tim Kierstead will likely take the ball in Game 2. He’s had a strong postseason, especially when allowed to be more cautious, trading a few more walks for ground balls. Right-handers have hit him a little bit better both this postseason and in his career, which may be an opportunity Toronto needs to exploit. Kierstad is an intimidating presence on the mound though, standing 6-9 and throwing an easy 95mph, and he’s held hitters to a .217 average in the playoffs.
Branden Andezler won the 2027 Cy Young Award and was an inning shy of a playoff no-hitter last NLCS. He’s allowed exactly two earned runs in all four of his playoff starts, giving opponents a low ceiling to try to attack. Lefties have hit him well this postseason, which is mildly concerning, but he’s dominated righties. Same-side hitters have a .458 playoff OPS, so he can neutralize Toronto’s most dangerous bats.
Kenny McMahon is the newcomer to the group, and the rookie acquainted himself well in an NLCS Game 1 win over the Dodgers, where he allowed one run over 6 before faltering in the 7th. He’s dominated right-handed hitters all season, and been good, but a little homer-prone against lefties this year. He’s struggled mightily on the road this season and pitched extremely well at Miller Park. He’s had moments where he’s pitched well on the road against good teams, and his only starting assignment this World Series will likely be in Game 4. If he can ride the adrenaline like he did in his first major league outing against Arizona or his final regular season start against San Francisco, he could pitch a gem of a game, but if he’s off, he’ll be hit hard like in most of his other road outings.
Milwaukee has rode Mike Gaylord and Joe Dyck this postseason, and they’ve been fantastic in the pen, combining for four Saves, three Holds, and a 2.21 ERA. Mark Warf had a disastrous Game 7 against San Francisco, but has been reliable the rest of his career. Ryan Whalen, Josh Young, David Meeks, and Blayne Enlow are also on the roster, but have been largely deemphasized this postseason. With the starters so effective, Milwaukee hasn’t needed too many long or middle relievers.
Toronto’s lineup has generally seen success from a few young lefties, Eric Drouet and Gary Sanchez, with Jake Burger having a huge ALCS against Kansas City. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .214 and hasn’t walked a single time this postseason. He has 11 RBIs and a .594 OPS. He’s clearly dangerous with men on, but hasn’t really had a good postseason. The ALCS began to expose some of the weaker Blue Jays hitters, and Milwaukee is another step up in competition.
Less-threatening, contact-first hitters have thrived for Toronto the entire postseason—Rattlesnake Drouet, Dan McDade, Joel Evans, and even though he’s not contact based, Ron Ryser had a big ALDS. If Milwaukee wants to pound the zone and take their chances against that class of hitter, Toronto has won that battle this postseason. If Milwaukee is more careful, it may lead to higher pitch counts.
The heart of the Blue Jays order has a ton of power—does it have the bat speed to turn around Hawkeye? Probably not. Kierstead and Andexler are a little less power based and more sequencing and off-speed based. Toronto’s free-swinging nature may be an asse in those battles.
Toronto has options off the bench for when Milwaukee brings in the pen. Phil Schultz and Anderson A. Tejada have left-handed pop off the bench, Pai Khan and Jelfry Marte can pinch run and play good defense, and Khan can even draw a walk against a righty, though the Brewers have excellent command. When McMahon starts, Evans moves to left and Marte moves to Shortstop, significantly improving Toronto’s infield defense and weakening their outfield defense. Ryser moves to the bench in that situation, giving Toronto more left-handed pop against Milwaukee’s right-handed relievers.
The Brewers have an excellent defense, particularly up the middle. Quadir Murriel, Noah Campbell, and Orlando Arcia should help tremendously against Rattlesnake’s preternatural ability to get base hits on weak nubbers, or hard hit grounders that aren’t fielded cleanly. Toronto doesn’t hit too many extra base hits that land in the park, but Greg Jacks should keep that in check.
The Blue Jays will run and run often. They have 10 steals this postseason in 11 tries, with Drouet stealing four in four chances, and five other Jays chipping in for the rest. Elih Marrero and the Brewers staff were excellent at preventing base-stealers—foremost by preventing baserunners—and were solid at gunning down attempted thefts. Milwaukee’s pen is good at holding runners, but the starters aren’t—17 of 19 runners were able to steal successfully against Hawkeye, astounding in that it’s hard to believe 19 baserunners got on against him all year. Only one runners has tried to steal off the Brewers all postseason with Arturo Rivera successfully stealing off Andexler in Game 2 of the NLDS. The Blue Jays will need to be aggressive on the bases to give themselves the best chance of scoring this series.
Season Series
The two teams actually played this year, with the Brewers winning a series at home 2-1 in late June. Rattlesnake had three hits, Guerrero homered off Hawkeye, and Danny Richardson and the bullpen were solid with Toronto grabbing the opener 3-2. Milwaukee turned a 3-1 deficit into a 7-3 win the next game, scoring six runs in the eighth. The Brewers battered Juan Robles and Juan Barajas and Tim Kierstead allowed a run on one hit over 7. The Brewers jumped Loeck Roenhorst in the finale with five in the first inning, capped by a Dulihanty home run. Andexler was solid, allowing three runs on three hits and the Brewers won 6-3.
Deciding Questions
Will Milwaukee’s left-handed bats have success against Toronto’s non-premium arms? This may be THE question of the series.
Can Toronto’s base-running manufacture offense?
Will Toronto’s free-swinging contact-hitters be able to get on base?
Prediction
Milwaukee’s rotation shines under the brightest of lights. Toronto’s offense gets suppressed, and Milwaukee’s bats wake up with the Giants and Dodgers arms no longer suppressing them. Danny Richardson gives Toronto a game, but the Brewers down champagne after the fifth. Brewers 4-1