2029 NL West Preview

[mikereds]

PBA NL West

Some changes are in store for the NL West in 2029.  Longtime Giants manager Dave Twibell has departed and will be replaced by PBA veteran Vic Black, who oversaw some fine seasons with the Orioles.  Black has been busy bringing in talent this offseason to serve to notice to the rival Dodgers that San Francisco won't be going anywhere.  The Diamondbacks came back to earth after a scorching hot start in 2028.  We'll have see if 2028 was an outlier for them or if they'll dip back below .500.  The Padres and Rockies both have a lot of concerns left to address, and each will need quite a bit of luck to be in contention in the NL West.  Most of the focus in the NL West will still be on the annual tug-of-war between the Giants and the Dodgers again in 2029.  

1) Los Angeles Dodgers

2028: 95-67, NL West Champion. Lost to Milwaukee 4-1 (series) in NLCS.

Looking Back: The Dodgers often lead the PBA in budget, attendance and payroll, so for them finishing under 100 wins in 2028 was somewhat disappointing.  The Dodgers pitching was solid, but couldn't stack up to Milwaukee's, especially in the post-season.  Offensively, they were powered by one of the most feared power hitters in the PBA in 3B Juan DeCarlo, who hit 48 HR's and 129 RBI.  The Dodgers as a whole also hit pretty well, with a NL-leading .273 team batting average.  Catcher Hyo-sang Choo continues to be one of the best all-around backstops in the game.  The outfield was also a source of strength for the team, behind Luis Robert and Jorge Ramos.  Righty Grayson Rodriguez was the most successful starter in 2028, going 13-4 with a 3.19 ERA.  The bullpen was powered by closer Ismael Robles, who recorded more than 30 saves for LA for the 4th straight year. 

 

Offseason Review: DeCarlo is still a free agent as of this writing.  Presuming he doesn't return to the Dodgers, he will leave giant shoes to fill.  Someone will have to provide that power in the heart of the order.  The marquee acquisition for the Dodgers was the signing of elite contact hitting 2B Eric Drouet, formerly of Toronto.  He'll be one the scariest leadoff hitters in the NL and has a solid shot to win another batting title. Veteran 3B Isaac Paredes was acquired in the Rule V draft and will provide reliable infield depth.  The Dodgers didn't lose any other major pieces from their talented core.  The Dodgers will sleepwalk their way to 90+ wins.  And if they acquire DeCarlo or another mighty bat they're a lock for 100+.

On the Farm:  Reliever Steve Stapelton, a second round pick from 2025, is a strong young bullpen arm and could see action this year.  18-year old CF Cody Saunderson is one of the top young prospects in the game, and he should debut somewhere in the lower minors this year.  The Dodgers spent $8 million in International Free Agency in 2027 to obtain him.  He has very good range and an almost unlimited ceiling as a power hitter.  SP Rubem Ortigo, ranked as the #83 prospect, also will make his minor league debut this year and is one of the Dodgers best scouting discoveries possibly ever.  The high-minors will be ho-hum and the low-minors will be where the excitement is this season.

Best Case Scenario: The Dodgers put it together, find a way to thwart the Brewers in the post-season and get back to their championship ways.

Worst Case Scenario: The hitting struggles, they lose ground in the NL and fans start to reminisce about their 2025-2026 championships rather than selling out Dodger Stadium

Key Questions:

DeCarlo, DeCarlo, DeCarlo.  Where will he land?  Is he still answering Magic Johnson's calls?

Reliever Bobby Spong is entering his prime and deserves a shot to be a closer.  Will he be shopped or will he have a chance to usurp the job from Robles?

Will infielder Luis Urias still hit and field strong enough to earn his $20+ million contract for the next 3 years?

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2) San Francisco Giants

2028: 94-68. Lost to Milwaukee 4-3 (series) in division series.

Looking Back: The Giants fought hard for their retiring manager Dave Twibell and pushed the Brewers to 7 games in the playoffs, so they have nothing to hang their head about. 26-year old LF Juan Campos emerged as a true force in 2028, hitting .323 with 47 homers in 2028 and he will only get better.  Shane Baz continued to be the unquestioned ace of the San Francisco staff as he recorded 15 wins in 209 innings.  1B Kelyn Klattenburger had a lousy year, hitting only .238 with .243 BABIP.  The pitching proved to be an overall bigger strength than the hitting in 2028.  The youth and talent were strong again in 2028 for the Giants, and will continue to be going forward.

Offseason Review: New GM Vic Black has been quick to put his stamp on this team and serve notice to the rest of the NL that the Giants will continue to be a contender.  Black traded for his former Baltimore OF Jadon Ancrum.  Ancrum is a reliable bat who's exceeded 100 RBI's for Baltimore each of the last 3 years.  Joining them will be 2B Tomaz Espassandum, a 23-year old standout from the Mets also acquired via trade.  Former A's OF Juan Castoreno was also acquired via trade and is one of the better center fielders in the PBA.  OF's Arturo Rivera and Luis Nunez were sent out in trades, but Ancrum and Castoreno will definitely be an upgrade over those two departures.  The Giants seem to be in a win-now mode, perhaps more than they were with their former manager, with all these fortifications on offense.  We'll see if it can take them over the top.

On the Farm: 1B Aaron Allen is 24 years old and has been crushing it in AAA for the last two seasons.  He will need a path to the majors very soon, whether it's with the Giants or another team.  The Giants farm overall is still strong, but perhaps not the absurd crop that was witnessed during the height of the Twibell years.  In July of 2028, the Giants made a massive investment in International free agency, inking 16-year old 3B Antonio Soto for over 11 million dollars. Soto has the ability to play all the outfield positions as well as the corner infield.  He could emerge as a big-time PBA player in the 2030's if he is developed properly.  The Giants sure hope so after the massive financial investment.

Best Case Scenario: The Giants take the division, the Brewers somehow manage to get out of the way and San Francisco finds themselves in the World Series.

Worst Case Scenario: The hitting can't live up to the big billing, and the pitching starts to take a step back.  Maybe the team will take some time to adjust to the tactical differences of a new GM.  Still, it's hard to imagine the Giants finishing under .500.

Key Questions:

A lot of trades were made this offseason under new GM Vic Black.  Which one has him the most excited?

Is 22-year old SP Alfredo Estevez ready to become a top-flight starter yet and stand shoulder-to-shoulder with his fellow pitcher Baz?

Is Nelle Willemsen ready yet for full-time outfield duty?  He has a lot of promise but only managed 200-250 at-bats in his first two major league seasons.

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3) Arizona Diamondbacks

2028: 85-77

Looking Back: The Diamondbacks got off to a red-hot start in 2028 and played solidly throughout the rest of the year for their first winning record since 2023.  Arizona has some good young talent and the fluctuation of management didn't seem to affect them.  The team found their power stroke as a group, with 5 players hitting 24 or more homers.  They were 4th in runs scored in the NL, with only Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Los Angeles ahead of them.  The pitching was respectable as well, with righty Jim Robinson tallying a 15-9 record with a 3.39 ERA.  The rest of the staff was nothing special - no one else could manage more than 7 wins.  RF Tony Sierra didn't manage a 7.9 WAR like 2027, but he's still one of the most talented and popular OF's in the PBA and that 8+ WAR ceiling will still be there.

Offseason Review:  Arizona made some solid minor moves during this offseason.  They bolstered their rotation with control pitcher Luis Ortiz and added a good defensive backstop in C Luis Mosso.  They let some players over 30 walk during this offseason, mainly on the offensive side, but with Sierra and others in the lineup the Diamondbacks should still be fine.  The bullpen still looks relatively strongly as well.

On the Farm:  The Diamondbacks have some decent talent on the farm.  SP Jonas Cadena, a 3rd round pick from 2027, could be elevated to A+ or AA as this year continues.  They seem to hold more pitching prospects than hitters, but young CF Dustin Hall, also drafted in 2027, looks to have a high ceiling.

Best Case Scenario:  The Diamondbacks overachieved last year and it's going to be difficult to match it.  But I think a .500 record is still attainable.

Worst Case Scenario:  The hard luck from a few years back returns and they win up in the 60-70 win zone.

Key Questions:

Who will be the odd-men out in the rotation?  Will new veteran SP Sixto Sanchez claim a spot?

3B Gary Ford hit 32 homers and earned his first gold glove in 2028.  Can he keep up the new standard?

Shortstop seems like a wide-open spring training competition.  Who is the favorite to become a regular starter?

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4) San Diego Padres

2028: 76-86

Looking Back: The Padres spend much more than they normally do in 2028 with a $112 million payroll, up $20 million or higher from prior years.  The extra investments did not payoff and the team only managed 76 wins and incurred a major negative balance.  The hitting was decent, but the pitching ranked in the bottom third of the NL and was the major reason the Padres failed to reach .500.  Starter Jeff Henry led the team with a 14-7 record and a 4.18 ERA.  The rest of the staff was iffy though, and the bullpen also let in a good share of runs.  The trio of 2B Greg Kelly, CF John Yancey and DH Mike Fitzgerald delivered the lion's share of the Padres offense in 2028, with each man clearing 28 homers and 100 RBI's.  The offense seems young and talented enough going forward.  It's mainly the pitching that will need to get younger, better and deeper.

Offseason Review: San Diego changed very little this season and was able to retain their 2028 core and give it another go.  Only a few veteran relievers like Peter Lambert and Chris Paddack left in free agency.  Probably due to the cash flow issue created by last year's experience, the Padres were very quiet in free agency and used Rule V to shore up the roster, drafting former Brewers reliever Kevin Fleishman and ex-Angels CF Daniel Whirley.  Neither of these players is expected to move the needle in San Diego but nonetheless could provide reliable depth.

On the Farm:  The star of the Padres farm system is SP Tom McCracken.  The 2025 1st round pick has been pitching well, and at 22 years old he should be ready for work at A+ or AA this year.  It might be tempting to rush him or grab him a cup of coffee, but 2030 is probably the better bet for McCracken to make his debut.  Last year's 2nd round pick SP Humberto Alcantara pitched well and could be a prospect to keep an eye on.  SS Hector Avila could be a serviceable major league depth player if he continues to develop. 

Best Case Scenario: The young hitters step up and the Padres manage sneak above .500 in September.

Worst Case Scenario: Given the lack of improvements, the team becomes dispirited and fails to reach the 2028 record.  Given the bad balance from 2028, the tension from the owner could greatly magnify.

Key Questions:

SS Royce Lewis had a disappointing 2028 outing with a .244 average and a 2.1 WAR.  Can he round back into form in 2029?

Will talented defensive catcher MJ Melendez be able to keep his batting average above .200 and contribute some helpful amount offensively?

24-year old closer has the tools to become top-flight closer if he can lower the walk total.  Will he be able to hang onto the job in 2029 or will other arms emerge?

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5) Colorado Rockies

2029: 67-95

Looking Back: In 2028, Colorado had the "rockiest" year of their existence in the Erick Biasco regime, finishing firmly at 5th in the division.  Many pitchers were booed at Coors last year, as the the team gave up 5.8 runs per game and spoiled the solid offense put forward by the Rockies.  It wasn't just the starters either - as a team the Rockies only managed 26 saves, a sure sign that the bullpen was blowing up too.  This was disappointing since there was some nice offensive contributions.  OF Ralph Porter improved his batting average to a very workable .249.  CF David Dahl remained pristine at age 34, clubbing 33 homers and leading the team with a .308 average.  Arenado did his usual thing and stayed above 100 RBI's.  Despite the crooked numbers surrendered by the pitching, the offense kept humming.

Offseason Review: The Rockies main attempt to improve the pitching has come in a trade.  Tomito Kawamoto was acquired from Seattle.  He's not a major talent, but he may have to function as the ace on this team unless the Rockies manage to land other pitching help in free agency.  The Rockies let veteran Michael Fulmer walk after a poor 2028.  The Rockies made large use of the Rule V to help turn things around, adding LF Juan Carrasco from the Orioles and a pair of pitchers who could possibly factor in as rotation material.  This was not the pitching overhaul fans were looking for, but the sky-high demands of free agent pitchers this offseason held the Rockies and many others at bay.

On the Farm: 2027 first round pick Danny Davis has been hitting very nicely and he will be the heir-apparent to CF David Dahl in a few years.   The rest of the Rockies farm is pretty pedestrian, especially on the pitching front.  If they can afford it, the Rockies may need to gamble big on an international free agent soon.  Outside of Davis the farm lacks sizzle.

Best Case Scenario: The pitchers have an adequate turnaround and the mighty Rockies offense propels them to 80 wins.

Worst Case Scenario: Some of the older bats of Dahl and Arenado show their age, the pitching continues to struggle and the Rockies finish with an even worse record than 2028.

Key Questions:

If the pitching continues to be dreadful in 2029, will management feel forced to trade good young bats for pitching reinforcements?

Can one of the Rockies hitters clear 40 dingers in homer-friendly Coors?  Might Porter be the one to do it?

2B Alec Sanchez is in his contract year.  Will he continue to produce and convince management to offer an extension?

 

[Commissioner Erick]

Key Questions:

If the pitching continues to be dreadful in 2029, will management feel forced to trade good young bats for pitching reinforcements?

I'd like to trade bats for arms, but I don't think the market is there. I haven't had success trying to trade my surplus bats for any kind of decent arm. It's forced me to double down on offense this year.

Can one of the Rockies hitters clear 40 dingers in homer-friendly Coors? Might Porter be the one to do it?

I think Danny Davis can do it. I think he's going to be spectacular. Porter has too many dry spells and will bat too low in the lineup to likely hit 40.

2B Alec Sanchez is in his contract year. Will he continue to produce and convince management to offer an extension?

I think so, but this actually may be his final year. His defense makes him tricky to tricky to play at Second Base, and we need defenders to make up for our lack of pitching. He also likely doesn't have a bat for First Base, and he's very much blocked at Third Base. He may have a new home in 2030.

[vicblack22]

Key Questions:

A lot of trades were made this offseason under new GM Vic Black. Which one has him the most excited?

The trade that has me MOST excited it's the move to acquire OF Juan Castoreno.  I think he's an MVP caliber player and can't wait to see how this season turns out for him.  Adding to that, the moves to acquire OF Jadon Ancrum and 1B/2B Tomaz Espassandim are also very important to the success of this team.

Is 22-year-old SP Alfredo Estevez ready to become a top-flight starter yet and stand shoulder-to-shoulder with his fellow pitcher Baz?

Yes, i believe that Alfredo is ready to make a splash in the majors.  While we won't rush him into being the ace of the staff, he will be a very big piece in the staff this season.


Is Nelle Willemsen ready yet for full-time outfield duty? He has a lot of promise but only managed 200-250 at-bats in his first two major league seasons.

We think Nelle is ready to play a big role for the Giants this season.  We have veterans on the team that should help him transition as a full-time player for the Giants.  

[Ben_Dodgers]

Key Questions:

DeCarlo, DeCarlo, DeCarlo. Where will he land? Is he still answering Magic Johnson's calls?

DeCarlo had a great season last year, opted out of his contract, and asked for twice as much money. We asked, but he didn't seem interested in resigning with LA (One of only 2 FAs listed as "hard" signability this offseason), so we opted to go a different direction. I hope he catches on somewhere, but it won't be with LA>

Drouet's is completely the opposite kind of hitter from DeCarlo, but if he can continue to get on base like he did for Toronto last year, there will be plenty of opportunities to bring him home. It's definitely tough to replace all those HRs in the middle of the lineup, but it's not like we've got a lineup full of slap hitters. Ramos, Robert, and Kendall should each give us 20-30 HRs. Pando and Calhoun have plenty of power. I'll note that Raul Beracierta did hit 49 HRs in the Meridian league last year. I don't expect that kind of output when he comes back to the PBA, but he gives us a big stick in the outfield against LHP.

Reliever Bobby Spong is entering his prime and deserves a shot to be a closer. Will he be shopped or will he have a chance to usurp the job from Robles?

Sponge Bob has been great, but I think Pedroza has the best shot at succeeding Robles as closer. His stuff is electric. That was actually my plan going into the offseason - Robles surprised me by taking the qualifying offer. He's proved he can do the job though, so it's his for now.

I don't have any plans to shop Spong - having a bullpen full of weapons like him is a big part of what's carried us to the playoffs for the last 5 years.

Will infielder Luis Urias still hit and field strong enough to earn his $20+ million contract for the next 3 years?

Urias hasn't really showed signs of slowing down at the plate. He's one of only 4 players to eclipse 2000 hits in the PBA. This year we're going to move him to 3B where his limited range should be less of a liability on defense.