Post by mikereds on Oct 11, 2022 22:17:52 GMT -5
PBA AL West
On the Farm: The Mariners have a nice power-pitching prospect in starter Steve Conner. He should receive time at AAA this year and could make the majors if a vacancy arises. He is only 21 though, so the Mariners may be wise not to rush him into action. 18-year old SP prospect Pierluigi "Cricket" Sarreti was a big component of the Johnson trade with KC, so the team and fans will keep a close eye on him in the lower minors. 3B Michael Green is a solid corner infield who also was a part of that same trade. The rest of the farm is pretty marginal for now. But like 2028, there appears to be some promising youngsters on the 40-man roster who will probably debut as rookies in the majors this year, most notably reliever Dan Farris. He has the stuff to become one of the best lefty setup men in the AL.
Best Case Scenario: Stroman is familiar with the AL West from his time with the Rangers. If Stroman has his best season and challenges for the Cy Young and the rest of the pitching does well, the Mariners could match their 2028 success and take the division again easily.
Worst Case Scenario: With Ivan Johnson gone, there is a risk the hitting struggles. But pitchers Stroman and Carlson should keep the team above .500. Maybe things are a little closer this year though and the Mariners have to survive a true pennant race.
Key Questions:
After acquiring first and second round picks from the Royals in the Johnson trade, this is going to be an important amateur draft for the Mariners. What is the draft day strategy?
...
On the Farm: 5-tool OF Elias Ramirez was the major asset from the Castoreno trade. He should excel in AA and may receive a cup of coffee this year. 2025 first round pick SP Steve Arb is taking longer to develop than anticipated, but if he puts it together could have a future as a 4th or 5th starter at the major league level. 2027 first round pick SP Josh Faulkner might be the better starter, but he will need at least a few more years of seasoning. The farm is a solid, and has enough depth to help support the veteran-laden major league squad.
Best Case Scenario: With a -8 pythagorean total, the A's actually underachieved last year in addition to their 15-win improvement. Despite the general lack of high-end talent, there is something about this team that is clicking and they are well-coached. So 90+ wins and AL West pennant are both certainly possible.
Worst Case Scenario: The Rule V pitchers prove to be too green and get shelled. This along with a few bad breaks could drop the team below .500.
Key Questions:
5) Los Angeles Angels
2029: 54-108
Looking Back: The Angels are the antithesis of their city-mate Dodgers, the most prosperous organization in the PBA. The Angels often manage to lose more games than the Dodgers win, and that was again true last season. In 2028, the offense was the biggest disappointment, scoring a league-worst 3.4 runs per game and hitting .227 as a team. 2B Jonathan Arauz led the team with a not-terrible .272 average and 2.2 WAR. The rest of the offense was a mess however, leading the league in strikeouts and hitting the least home runs. The bright spot was definitely on the pitching side, with young SP Mike Murrin posting an impressive 12-5 record and 3.51 ERA and making the All-Star team. He's definitely the ace to build around, with no other Angel starter or reliever, able to post more than 4 wins.
Offseason Review: In free agency, the Angels signed solid RF Jarred Kelenic. On most teams he would be just a complementary outfield bat, but on the Angels he may be relied upon to bat at the heart of the order and fill the offensive void. The Angels also traded for dependable Blue Jays starter German Marquez to pair with Murrin in the rotation. The rest of the Angels offseason was pretty quiet. The Angels still have some work to do and need to shore up a few positions, particularly at catcher.
On the Farm: The Angels have a possible top notch 3B in Ephrem Ben Hassi residing in their international complex. He's 19 years old and this should make his minor league debut this season. If the Angels can manage his development, he could be something special down the road. 21-year old SP Jesus Corniel also has a solid future if he continues to hone his different pitches in the minors. RP Tim Tyson looks like a solid future PBA reliever but will need another year in the minors. Beyond these players though, the farm system lacks depth and has a lack of head count in general. They will need to sign some players as stopgaps to round things out before opening day.
The AL West still belongs to the Mariners ... for now. Oakland took a big step forward in 2028, improving by 15 wins from the prior year and posting a 86-76 record and could continue to be on the rise. The Texas Rangers held firm as a regular .500+ team and they are a franchise usually known to content or at least be on the playoff bubble. Those three teams are the contenders in the AL West. The Astros and Angels - not so much. The Astros seem to be treading water below the .500 mark, and the Angels still are well-entrenched as the consistently worst team in the PBA. Some new hope however in Los Angeles is present now with the arrival of new GM Alvin Kaufmann. The Angels can only improve, and if Kaufmann could somehow guide the Angels to a .450 or better winning percentage the fan base might build a statue in his honor.
1) Seattle Mariners
2028: 95-67, AL West Champion. Lost to Kansas City 4-3 (series) in ALDS.
Looking Back: The Mariners comfortably took the AL West pennant in 2028, with second place Oakland finishing 9 games behind them. The Mariners were a balanced team, finishing in the top in AL in most major hitting and pitching statistics as a team. Switch-hitting 2B Ivan Johnson had a breakout year, hitting .320 with 109 RBI and 7.9 WAR in 2028. 28-year old rookie CF Josh Bush was also a major contributor, hitting .300/.372/.427 in his debut and stealing 23 bases. And yet another rookie, 26-year old 1B Caleb Swift, proved he could adjust to the bigs, hitting 28 homers in his first year. The Mariners' rotation had a lot of shuffling around as the year progressed. They traded away Cobi Johnson for Reds star Josh Carlson. No one starter did anything tremendous, with only Jamie Nelson managing a team-leading 10 wins, but there were no absolute flame-outs either. Anyelo Luna had an excellent season closing games and recorded 36 saves. Relievers Sam Hodge and Ricardo Silva also recorded a lot of innings and proved to be very effective out of the bullpen. It was a true team effort in 2028.
2028: 95-67, AL West Champion. Lost to Kansas City 4-3 (series) in ALDS.
Looking Back: The Mariners comfortably took the AL West pennant in 2028, with second place Oakland finishing 9 games behind them. The Mariners were a balanced team, finishing in the top in AL in most major hitting and pitching statistics as a team. Switch-hitting 2B Ivan Johnson had a breakout year, hitting .320 with 109 RBI and 7.9 WAR in 2028. 28-year old rookie CF Josh Bush was also a major contributor, hitting .300/.372/.427 in his debut and stealing 23 bases. And yet another rookie, 26-year old 1B Caleb Swift, proved he could adjust to the bigs, hitting 28 homers in his first year. The Mariners' rotation had a lot of shuffling around as the year progressed. They traded away Cobi Johnson for Reds star Josh Carlson. No one starter did anything tremendous, with only Jamie Nelson managing a team-leading 10 wins, but there were no absolute flame-outs either. Anyelo Luna had an excellent season closing games and recorded 36 saves. Relievers Sam Hodge and Ricardo Silva also recorded a lot of innings and proved to be very effective out of the bullpen. It was a true team effort in 2028.
Offseason Review: The Mariners did not rest on their laurels or presume their control of the AL West is inevitable. They made the heartbreaking decision of trading their breakout star Ivan Johnson to the Royals but got good value in return. The Mariners will have a new-look infield with 2B Livan Soto and SS Wander Samuel Franco acquired via trade. The Mariners also signed veteran ace Marcus Stroman, who won 16 games for the Red Sox last year, to a 3-year deal. Stroman will serve as the clear ace of this staff and shows no signs of slowing down despite his age. The seven-time all-star Stroman could eventually be a Hall of Fame candidate if he continues his elite production with Seattle. The Mariners did let some quality veterans in SS Lucius Fox, LF Clint Frazier and 3B Franklin Barreto leave in free agency, so they may need some more youngsters to step up again in 2029.
On the Farm: The Mariners have a nice power-pitching prospect in starter Steve Conner. He should receive time at AAA this year and could make the majors if a vacancy arises. He is only 21 though, so the Mariners may be wise not to rush him into action. 18-year old SP prospect Pierluigi "Cricket" Sarreti was a big component of the Johnson trade with KC, so the team and fans will keep a close eye on him in the lower minors. 3B Michael Green is a solid corner infield who also was a part of that same trade. The rest of the farm is pretty marginal for now. But like 2028, there appears to be some promising youngsters on the 40-man roster who will probably debut as rookies in the majors this year, most notably reliever Dan Farris. He has the stuff to become one of the best lefty setup men in the AL.
Best Case Scenario: Stroman is familiar with the AL West from his time with the Rangers. If Stroman has his best season and challenges for the Cy Young and the rest of the pitching does well, the Mariners could match their 2028 success and take the division again easily.
Worst Case Scenario: With Ivan Johnson gone, there is a risk the hitting struggles. But pitchers Stroman and Carlson should keep the team above .500. Maybe things are a little closer this year though and the Mariners have to survive a true pennant race.
Key Questions:
After acquiring first and second round picks from the Royals in the Johnson trade, this is going to be an important amateur draft for the Mariners. What is the draft day strategy?
The Mariners have an excellent contact hitter in Chad Woods, but was cut down by a major injury in 2028. Can Woods stay healthy and earn 500+ at-bats?
If the season is going well, will Seattle make a few win-now trades to try to overcome AL powerhouses like Boston and KC in the playoffs?
...
2) Oakland Athletics
2028: 86-76.
Looking Back: The A's took a major step forward in 2028, primarily due to much-improved pitching. The A's ranked 3rd in the AL in least runs allowed, only behind Boston and KC. Starters Peter Solomon, AJ Puk, Jorge Romo and Ken Spraglin all finished with ERA's between 3.01 and 4.09 and provided plenty of quality starts for the team. Relievers Corey Knebel, Alfredo Molina and Jonathan Gates were very effective out of the bullpen. On the offensive side, the A's hit well for power. DH Darick Hall and CF Juan Castoreno each posted 36 home runs. SS Sean Mendoza excelled on defense and won an AL Gold Glove.
2028: 86-76.
Looking Back: The A's took a major step forward in 2028, primarily due to much-improved pitching. The A's ranked 3rd in the AL in least runs allowed, only behind Boston and KC. Starters Peter Solomon, AJ Puk, Jorge Romo and Ken Spraglin all finished with ERA's between 3.01 and 4.09 and provided plenty of quality starts for the team. Relievers Corey Knebel, Alfredo Molina and Jonathan Gates were very effective out of the bullpen. On the offensive side, the A's hit well for power. DH Darick Hall and CF Juan Castoreno each posted 36 home runs. SS Sean Mendoza excelled on defense and won an AL Gold Glove.
Offseason Review: To fans' dismay, the A's traded their best young hitter Juan Castoreno to the Giants. But as a part of that deal, they at least got a few nice prospects and RF Arturo Rivera in return. Rivera will replace some of Castoerno's power, but certainly not all of it. Oakland also traded with Toronto to add another solid rotation piece in Triston Casas. He will need to fill the void left by SP Peter Solomon, who left in free agency and inked with the Orioles. Their rotation of catchers was also broken up, with switch hitters Daniel Flores and Victor Caratini leaving in free agency. Lefty TJ Collett will have to handle the majority of the innings behind the plate on his own. Oakland made major use of the Rule V draft, adding starter Rob Singleton and 3 relievers. These Rule V pitchers will feel the pressure to perform and come close to the high standard established by the A's staff last year.
On the Farm: 5-tool OF Elias Ramirez was the major asset from the Castoreno trade. He should excel in AA and may receive a cup of coffee this year. 2025 first round pick SP Steve Arb is taking longer to develop than anticipated, but if he puts it together could have a future as a 4th or 5th starter at the major league level. 2027 first round pick SP Josh Faulkner might be the better starter, but he will need at least a few more years of seasoning. The farm is a solid, and has enough depth to help support the veteran-laden major league squad.
Best Case Scenario: With a -8 pythagorean total, the A's actually underachieved last year in addition to their 15-win improvement. Despite the general lack of high-end talent, there is something about this team that is clicking and they are well-coached. So 90+ wins and AL West pennant are both certainly possible.
Worst Case Scenario: The Rule V pitchers prove to be too green and get shelled. This along with a few bad breaks could drop the team below .500.
Key Questions:
What was the motive behind trading Castoreno? Given his age and production, he doesn't seem like the kind of talent many teams would let go of.
Collett only hit .225 last year. Will Oakland's catching situation stay strong enough to keep the A's in contention?
3B Milt Pool has been a bit of a disappointment thus far. At 27, is this the year he finds his power stroke and becomes a better contributor in the lineup?
3) Texas Rangers
2028: 82-20
Looking Back: The Rangers are a model of success and stability, having finished with a record of .500 or higher in every year of their PBA existence. The 2028 crew kept the string going with an 82-80 record. But not by much, as they actually finished with a -42 run differential. The offense and defense were both quite pedestrian. 1B Nick Pratto was the only Ranger with a batting average above .300. With a .282 average and 26 HR's the other steady contributor was CF Raimfer Salinas. The rest of the lineup is starting to look a bit suspect. On the pitching side, starters Esteban Valdez and Mike Strangeland combined for 28 wins and 396 innings. The rest of the rotation however was an inconsistent mess with various starting candidates cycling in and out of the rotation. Dan O'Rourke is their best and most trusted reliever. He recorded 21 saves and made his first All-Star team in 2028. The Rangers have pieces to work with, but it's the overall depth that's concerning.
Offseason Review: The Rangers were very quiet this offseason. Their biggest addition was power-hitting super utility man Kevin Ecevit. But he was acquired off waivers and certainly has his flaws. The Rangers added an astonishing 6 players from the Rule V draft, and as of this writing it appears that all of them may stay with the major league team. This may be a sign that the Rangers could be entering a rebuilding phase. It's also concerning that quality veterans like Ozzie Albies and Nomar Mazara left in free agency. The duo were overpaid, but trying to replace them with Rule V talent is going to be a challenging task for this coaching staff.
On the Farm: 24-year old SP Mike Burgener has major league stuff and has earned his keep in the majors. It's surprising to see him still in AAA and not in Spring Training. He seems ready for the show. 2B Luis Torres has a terrific ceiling but will need a few more years in the minors to realize his potential. The Rangers are very, very young in the minors with no players above age 27. And apart from a small handful prospects like Burgener and Torres, the rest of this group seems unspectacular with very low potential across the board. The Rangers may need to pump more resources into their farm or face long-term consequences.
Best Case Scenario: Savvy management, good use of the waiver wire and a few shrewd trades could keep this team winning again.
2028: 82-20
Looking Back: The Rangers are a model of success and stability, having finished with a record of .500 or higher in every year of their PBA existence. The 2028 crew kept the string going with an 82-80 record. But not by much, as they actually finished with a -42 run differential. The offense and defense were both quite pedestrian. 1B Nick Pratto was the only Ranger with a batting average above .300. With a .282 average and 26 HR's the other steady contributor was CF Raimfer Salinas. The rest of the lineup is starting to look a bit suspect. On the pitching side, starters Esteban Valdez and Mike Strangeland combined for 28 wins and 396 innings. The rest of the rotation however was an inconsistent mess with various starting candidates cycling in and out of the rotation. Dan O'Rourke is their best and most trusted reliever. He recorded 21 saves and made his first All-Star team in 2028. The Rangers have pieces to work with, but it's the overall depth that's concerning.
Offseason Review: The Rangers were very quiet this offseason. Their biggest addition was power-hitting super utility man Kevin Ecevit. But he was acquired off waivers and certainly has his flaws. The Rangers added an astonishing 6 players from the Rule V draft, and as of this writing it appears that all of them may stay with the major league team. This may be a sign that the Rangers could be entering a rebuilding phase. It's also concerning that quality veterans like Ozzie Albies and Nomar Mazara left in free agency. The duo were overpaid, but trying to replace them with Rule V talent is going to be a challenging task for this coaching staff.
On the Farm: 24-year old SP Mike Burgener has major league stuff and has earned his keep in the majors. It's surprising to see him still in AAA and not in Spring Training. He seems ready for the show. 2B Luis Torres has a terrific ceiling but will need a few more years in the minors to realize his potential. The Rangers are very, very young in the minors with no players above age 27. And apart from a small handful prospects like Burgener and Torres, the rest of this group seems unspectacular with very low potential across the board. The Rangers may need to pump more resources into their farm or face long-term consequences.
Best Case Scenario: Savvy management, good use of the waiver wire and a few shrewd trades could keep this team winning again.
Worst Case Scenario: The warning signs of a rebuild hold true and they experience their first season under .500, maybe well under .500.
Key Questions:
Key Questions:
Why was the team quiet in free agency? Were there a few deep sleeper picks you are counting on to produce?
Only 1B Nick Pratto and C Francisco Mejia are above 30 at the major league level. Will this team have the leadership and veteran experience to weather a long season?
Salinas is in a contract year. Will the Rangers make a competitive offer to attempt to keep him, or will he depart via free agency soon?
4) Houston Astros
2028: 72-90
Looking Back: The team that once won 111 games in 2019 is in fairly rough shape now. They had the third worst batting average in the AL and their pitching staff surrendered the most walks of any team in the AL. RF Ichisake Ochiai powered the Astros offense with 39 homers and 109 RBI's, greatly outpacing his teammates in those categories by a wide margin. SS Dansby Swanson hit a team-leading .284 and contributed 4.5 WAR, but at 34 years old his best days might be behind him. The rest of the lineup often struggled to hit for average and their run generation was minimal. Only one starting pitcher had a winning record - Antonio Santillan with a 9-8 record and a 4.30 ERA. Starter Ryan Cain struggled with his control throughout the year, surrendering 6.1 walks per 9 innings. SP Jeff Morrison had a down year, but hopefully will shake things off and rebound in 2029. He has the talent to be an ace.
2028: 72-90
Looking Back: The team that once won 111 games in 2019 is in fairly rough shape now. They had the third worst batting average in the AL and their pitching staff surrendered the most walks of any team in the AL. RF Ichisake Ochiai powered the Astros offense with 39 homers and 109 RBI's, greatly outpacing his teammates in those categories by a wide margin. SS Dansby Swanson hit a team-leading .284 and contributed 4.5 WAR, but at 34 years old his best days might be behind him. The rest of the lineup often struggled to hit for average and their run generation was minimal. Only one starting pitcher had a winning record - Antonio Santillan with a 9-8 record and a 4.30 ERA. Starter Ryan Cain struggled with his control throughout the year, surrendering 6.1 walks per 9 innings. SP Jeff Morrison had a down year, but hopefully will shake things off and rebound in 2029. He has the talent to be an ace.
Offseason Review: The Astros lost solid talent in free agency. 2B Freudis Nova departed and is still looking for a big contract. Quality reliever Aaron Smith latched on with the Brewers. They've remained silent in free agency and even the Rule V draft. Unless they pull off some budget signings before opening day, things could look pretty grim for Houston fans.
On the Farm: What farm? The Astros have no players ranked in the BBN top 100 prospects. 3B Pedro Martinez in AAA could be a solid contributor soon. And perhaps there are a few other diamonds in the rough. But there are also a great number of one-star prospects who have no future. The farm will need to be addressed at some point or things could get more dire for Houston over the long haul.
Best Case Scenario: Some shrewd 11th hour signings and a few breakout seasons from key players could push this team to flirt with the .500 mark.
Worst Case Scenario: They manage to drop below the Angels for last place in the AL West and their ticket sales dwindle.
On the Farm: What farm? The Astros have no players ranked in the BBN top 100 prospects. 3B Pedro Martinez in AAA could be a solid contributor soon. And perhaps there are a few other diamonds in the rough. But there are also a great number of one-star prospects who have no future. The farm will need to be addressed at some point or things could get more dire for Houston over the long haul.
Best Case Scenario: Some shrewd 11th hour signings and a few breakout seasons from key players could push this team to flirt with the .500 mark.
Worst Case Scenario: They manage to drop below the Angels for last place in the AL West and their ticket sales dwindle.
Key Questions:
What's the short-term game plan for the Astros organization? Will they sign a stud free agent? Can they afford it?
Could veterans like 1B Casey Gillaspie or 3B Joshua Lowe be shopped before the trade deadline if the Astros are struggling?
Can young talented pitchers Jeff Morrison and Jorge Cotto put good seasons together and keep the Astros respectable?
5) Los Angeles Angels
2029: 54-108
Looking Back: The Angels are the antithesis of their city-mate Dodgers, the most prosperous organization in the PBA. The Angels often manage to lose more games than the Dodgers win, and that was again true last season. In 2028, the offense was the biggest disappointment, scoring a league-worst 3.4 runs per game and hitting .227 as a team. 2B Jonathan Arauz led the team with a not-terrible .272 average and 2.2 WAR. The rest of the offense was a mess however, leading the league in strikeouts and hitting the least home runs. The bright spot was definitely on the pitching side, with young SP Mike Murrin posting an impressive 12-5 record and 3.51 ERA and making the All-Star team. He's definitely the ace to build around, with no other Angel starter or reliever, able to post more than 4 wins.
Offseason Review: In free agency, the Angels signed solid RF Jarred Kelenic. On most teams he would be just a complementary outfield bat, but on the Angels he may be relied upon to bat at the heart of the order and fill the offensive void. The Angels also traded for dependable Blue Jays starter German Marquez to pair with Murrin in the rotation. The rest of the Angels offseason was pretty quiet. The Angels still have some work to do and need to shore up a few positions, particularly at catcher.
On the Farm: The Angels have a possible top notch 3B in Ephrem Ben Hassi residing in their international complex. He's 19 years old and this should make his minor league debut this season. If the Angels can manage his development, he could be something special down the road. 21-year old SP Jesus Corniel also has a solid future if he continues to hone his different pitches in the minors. RP Tim Tyson looks like a solid future PBA reliever but will need another year in the minors. Beyond these players though, the farm system lacks depth and has a lack of head count in general. They will need to sign some players as stopgaps to round things out before opening day.
Best Case Scenario: If young starters Murrin and Jeff Susino excel and Marquez helps solidify the rotation, the Angels could win more games with a pitching a defense and pitching-first approach. But given the offensive challenges, 70 wins seems like the absolute ceiling for this season.
Worst Case Scenario: If the void at catcher isn't addressed, the pitching could suffer along with the sluggish offense. The Angels have had two 45 win seasons in their PBA existence, so it's possible for them to stumble and reach that valley again.
Key Questions:
Worst Case Scenario: If the void at catcher isn't addressed, the pitching could suffer along with the sluggish offense. The Angels have had two 45 win seasons in their PBA existence, so it's possible for them to stumble and reach that valley again.
Key Questions:
How will GM Alvin Kaufmann go about rebuilding the Angels? Is there a plan to making the team respectable again?
Can SP Jeff Susino figure out his control issues and remain starting pitching material in the PBA?
Kyle Barraclough is one of the more proficient relievers in the PBA. At age 38, might he be shopped to a contender for young assets?
