Post by Commissioner Erick on Jan 18, 2023 21:17:28 GMT -5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
After four straight seasons in the PBA desert, the Arizona Diamondbacks started to ascend last year with a strong 85-win season. They took another leap forward this year, improving to 93-69 and making the postseason for the first time since 2023. Their opponent is the playoff veteran San Francisco Giants, a team that is 4-0 historically in Wild Card Games, including last year when a Luis Nunez double spearheaded a ninth-inning rally to beat the Cardinals and advance to the NLDS. Arizona is looking to announce their presence as a contender on the biggest stage, and San Francisco is looking to finally punch through and earn a trip to the World Series.
Giants Offense versus Diamondbacks Pitching
Arizona was ninth in the NL in runs allowed as their pitching depth and defense were underwhelming. The bullpen isn’t great and the left side of the defense is pretty poor. However, Arizona is in luck with how to counter that as Jim Robinson will get the start. Husky Robinson worked 208 innings, striking out 205, going 15-10 with a 3.72 ERA. He throws hard and the ball moves, with a mid 90s heater that either cuts or sinks. Robinson also keeps the ball in the park reasonably well—especially against righties as they hit only four homers all year. Being tied for fifth in innings, means less time for the bullpen and being seventh in strikeouts means less work for the defense.
Arizona has a lot of options in its bullpen, but it doesn’t have a dominant arm. Boyd Vander Kooi is the Closer and had 33 Saves, but he’s wild and lefties hit him hard. In fact, every pitcher in Arizona’s pen either has a big platoon split or gives up a high OPS to both righties and lefties. Three pitchers had an ERA under 4, lefty Jamie Ison with huge platoon splits and good home run luck; Josh Zemenek with extreme platoon splits, and Arturo Salgado, who worked 17.1 innings. If San Francisco can get Robinson out of the game, they’ll be in a good spot.
The Giants as a team had no difference between home and road OPS and little difference between how they fare against lefties and righties. Their lineup has seven lefties, which will temper Robinson’s effectiveness. Of those lefties, Andres Gimenez is the only one who hasn’t made an All-Star game, and he hit .308 this year. Six of their seven main lefties hit at least .293, and the seventh was Catcher and ninth-place hitter Brian Hampton who had a 110 OPS+.
The two righties are Victor Robles and Fernando Tatis Jr. Robles had a tough year with only three homers, while Tatis had a perfectly average 101 OPS+. Both are in mostly for defense and speed as the pair combined to steal 22 of 23 bases successfully.
The Giants may have trouble getting handedness advantages as they have a pretty short bench. They can go with a few righties if Arizona goes with a left-handed pitcher, but they won’t be able to swap back later as they only have one lefty off the bench, their backup Catcher Chris Malloy. Nelle Willemsen is an excellent bat with two straight years hitting over .300 in decent samples before struggling with the new additions this year. Like Willemsen, Jadon Ancrum hasn’t had a great yearbut has even more of a track record of offensive excellence. He still crushes lefties and makes a lethal pinch hitter. Finally, Bobby Sheesley crushes lefties as well, though he’s been much more effective as a starter than a pinch hitter this year.
San Francisco was middle of the pack in base stealing this year, while Arizona was third worst at throwing out runners. Runners were 12 of 13 running against Jim Robinson this year.
Diamondbacks Offense versus Giants Pitching
Arizona has huge platoon splits for home and road and versus lefties and righties. They hit for more than 100 points of OPS better at home with an .848 mark in Chase Field and a .729 mark on the road. They also hit for more than 100 points of OPS higher against righties than lefties, hitting .820 versus .714. Arizona will have to find a way to hit on the road, but at least they’ll face a righty in Shane Baz.
Arizona will likely have three lefties, two switch hitters, and four righties in their lineup. The three lefties are powerful sluggers though.
Tony Sierra, Gary Ford, and Jimmy Torres each have 39 home runs, 94 RBIs, and an .884 OPS. Sierra is the NL WAR leader and the MVP favorite. He hit 44 homers and drove in 121—both career highs, while hitting .287 with 13 steals. He kills right-handed pitching with a 1.057 OPS against righties. Gary Ford’s 53 homers were second in the NL and his 135 RBIs led the league. He upped his average from .235 to.285, allowing him to take the leap from volatile, but dangerous slugger to genuine star. He hit .303 with 45 long balls against righties alone. Jimmy Torres also had a career high in average and homers, hitting .259 with 37 long balls—fueled by a 1.013 OPS against righties.
It's a vicious trio and right-handers have to be on red alert when facing the heart of the Arizona lineup.
The rest of Arizona’s lineup is more manageable. Juan Gil has a .581 OPS as one switch hitter and Alfredo Trevino has a .677 OPS as the other. Leadoff hitter Tim Barton gets on base at a .299 clip, and slugger Pedro Tapia has a respectable, but not overwhelming .779 OPS against righties. Chris Paramore and DeShawn DeLaine give Arizona some juice at the bottom of the lineup but if you’re right handed and can survive the heart of the Arizona order, you’ll find a light at the end of the tunnel.
It's the same hitters against lefties, but in a slightly different order with Juan Gil dropping and lefty-crusher Pedro Tapia hitting second. Tapia and Sierra back-to-back makes for a a tough task for lefties, but Ford and Torres are pretty impotent against same-side pitching.
Shane Baz will get the start for San Francisco and thankfully for San Francisco he’s been strong against lefties in his career with a .670 mark for lefties against Baz lifetime. Baz continues to be one of baseball’s better strikeout arms, and he just racked up his sixth consecutive 200-strikeout year. He had a 4.02 ERA, mostly the result of an elevated BABIP as his FIP is in line with career norms. Baz is still much better against righties than lefties, but he’ll give the Giants a chance in this one. One thing he’ll need to watch out for is this the hidden value he allows on the mound. Baz has led the league in wild pitches six times and is second in both career wild pitches and career balks.
The Giants are fortunate to get Arizona in a Wild Card Game and not a series a they’ll be able to supplement their righty-heavy pen with lefties from the rotation. Shamar Polite served up cupcakes to righties as a starter, but he pitched well against lefties and could be an option against the Arizona heart. Even Orcutt moved into the rotation late in the year, but was a dominant reliever who posted a 2.42 ERA in 100.1 innings. Lefties had just five home runs against him, and got on base at a .254 clip.
Chris Davis is San Francisco’s lone lefty currently in the pen, but he may not be a great option as he doesn’t have great success against lefty hitters. He has very little of a platoon split and would best be served if the game goes long.
The rest of the San Francisco pen is all right handed. Ricky Valencia and Octavio Lopez had good success against lefties this year, and the rest of the pen was excellent overall, but it may be tough for them to hold Arizona’s sluggers off the board. Ryan DiSibio was hit hard with a high home rate, but he and Davis were the only arms to run an ERA north of 3.14.
The Giants had the fourth worst zone rating in the NL and won’t provide the pitching with many favors. San Francisco will be fortunate to have Baz and his strikeout prominence starting today.
Arizona’s A.J. Reed and Anderson Franco are solid sluggers when they get the platoon advantage. They give the team some options off the bench if an opponent commits an arm that forces a player like Gil or Barton out of the game.
Season Series
San Francisco won the season series 10-9, but was 6-3 at home. They gave up seven runs in an extra inning loss, but allowed four runs or fewer in each other game, showing the offensive struggles the Diamondbacks have on the road.
Shane Baz has made five starts this year against Arizona, going 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA, including a 3.78 mark at AT&T Park. At home, he’s struck out 22 Diamondbacks in 16.2 innings.
Jim Robinson has made six starts against the Giants, and aside from 7 shutout in his first start, really struggled. He allowed four runs in one start, and five runs in four, resulting in a 1-4 record with a 4.62 ERA.
Deciding Questions
Can Gary Ford have a big game against Baz and the Giants bullpen?
Will Jim Robinson solve San Francisco's offense for the first time since his first start of the year?
Can Arizona's baserunning force a few balks and wild pitches to manufacture offense?
Prediction: Arizona struggles to score against Baz and a good bullpen, and San Francisco continues to have Robinson’s number. Giants 5-1.
After four straight seasons in the PBA desert, the Arizona Diamondbacks started to ascend last year with a strong 85-win season. They took another leap forward this year, improving to 93-69 and making the postseason for the first time since 2023. Their opponent is the playoff veteran San Francisco Giants, a team that is 4-0 historically in Wild Card Games, including last year when a Luis Nunez double spearheaded a ninth-inning rally to beat the Cardinals and advance to the NLDS. Arizona is looking to announce their presence as a contender on the biggest stage, and San Francisco is looking to finally punch through and earn a trip to the World Series.
Giants Offense versus Diamondbacks Pitching
Arizona was ninth in the NL in runs allowed as their pitching depth and defense were underwhelming. The bullpen isn’t great and the left side of the defense is pretty poor. However, Arizona is in luck with how to counter that as Jim Robinson will get the start. Husky Robinson worked 208 innings, striking out 205, going 15-10 with a 3.72 ERA. He throws hard and the ball moves, with a mid 90s heater that either cuts or sinks. Robinson also keeps the ball in the park reasonably well—especially against righties as they hit only four homers all year. Being tied for fifth in innings, means less time for the bullpen and being seventh in strikeouts means less work for the defense.
Arizona has a lot of options in its bullpen, but it doesn’t have a dominant arm. Boyd Vander Kooi is the Closer and had 33 Saves, but he’s wild and lefties hit him hard. In fact, every pitcher in Arizona’s pen either has a big platoon split or gives up a high OPS to both righties and lefties. Three pitchers had an ERA under 4, lefty Jamie Ison with huge platoon splits and good home run luck; Josh Zemenek with extreme platoon splits, and Arturo Salgado, who worked 17.1 innings. If San Francisco can get Robinson out of the game, they’ll be in a good spot.
The Giants as a team had no difference between home and road OPS and little difference between how they fare against lefties and righties. Their lineup has seven lefties, which will temper Robinson’s effectiveness. Of those lefties, Andres Gimenez is the only one who hasn’t made an All-Star game, and he hit .308 this year. Six of their seven main lefties hit at least .293, and the seventh was Catcher and ninth-place hitter Brian Hampton who had a 110 OPS+.
The two righties are Victor Robles and Fernando Tatis Jr. Robles had a tough year with only three homers, while Tatis had a perfectly average 101 OPS+. Both are in mostly for defense and speed as the pair combined to steal 22 of 23 bases successfully.
The Giants may have trouble getting handedness advantages as they have a pretty short bench. They can go with a few righties if Arizona goes with a left-handed pitcher, but they won’t be able to swap back later as they only have one lefty off the bench, their backup Catcher Chris Malloy. Nelle Willemsen is an excellent bat with two straight years hitting over .300 in decent samples before struggling with the new additions this year. Like Willemsen, Jadon Ancrum hasn’t had a great yearbut has even more of a track record of offensive excellence. He still crushes lefties and makes a lethal pinch hitter. Finally, Bobby Sheesley crushes lefties as well, though he’s been much more effective as a starter than a pinch hitter this year.
San Francisco was middle of the pack in base stealing this year, while Arizona was third worst at throwing out runners. Runners were 12 of 13 running against Jim Robinson this year.
Diamondbacks Offense versus Giants Pitching
Arizona has huge platoon splits for home and road and versus lefties and righties. They hit for more than 100 points of OPS better at home with an .848 mark in Chase Field and a .729 mark on the road. They also hit for more than 100 points of OPS higher against righties than lefties, hitting .820 versus .714. Arizona will have to find a way to hit on the road, but at least they’ll face a righty in Shane Baz.
Arizona will likely have three lefties, two switch hitters, and four righties in their lineup. The three lefties are powerful sluggers though.
Tony Sierra, Gary Ford, and Jimmy Torres each have 39 home runs, 94 RBIs, and an .884 OPS. Sierra is the NL WAR leader and the MVP favorite. He hit 44 homers and drove in 121—both career highs, while hitting .287 with 13 steals. He kills right-handed pitching with a 1.057 OPS against righties. Gary Ford’s 53 homers were second in the NL and his 135 RBIs led the league. He upped his average from .235 to.285, allowing him to take the leap from volatile, but dangerous slugger to genuine star. He hit .303 with 45 long balls against righties alone. Jimmy Torres also had a career high in average and homers, hitting .259 with 37 long balls—fueled by a 1.013 OPS against righties.
It's a vicious trio and right-handers have to be on red alert when facing the heart of the Arizona lineup.
The rest of Arizona’s lineup is more manageable. Juan Gil has a .581 OPS as one switch hitter and Alfredo Trevino has a .677 OPS as the other. Leadoff hitter Tim Barton gets on base at a .299 clip, and slugger Pedro Tapia has a respectable, but not overwhelming .779 OPS against righties. Chris Paramore and DeShawn DeLaine give Arizona some juice at the bottom of the lineup but if you’re right handed and can survive the heart of the Arizona order, you’ll find a light at the end of the tunnel.
It's the same hitters against lefties, but in a slightly different order with Juan Gil dropping and lefty-crusher Pedro Tapia hitting second. Tapia and Sierra back-to-back makes for a a tough task for lefties, but Ford and Torres are pretty impotent against same-side pitching.
Shane Baz will get the start for San Francisco and thankfully for San Francisco he’s been strong against lefties in his career with a .670 mark for lefties against Baz lifetime. Baz continues to be one of baseball’s better strikeout arms, and he just racked up his sixth consecutive 200-strikeout year. He had a 4.02 ERA, mostly the result of an elevated BABIP as his FIP is in line with career norms. Baz is still much better against righties than lefties, but he’ll give the Giants a chance in this one. One thing he’ll need to watch out for is this the hidden value he allows on the mound. Baz has led the league in wild pitches six times and is second in both career wild pitches and career balks.
The Giants are fortunate to get Arizona in a Wild Card Game and not a series a they’ll be able to supplement their righty-heavy pen with lefties from the rotation. Shamar Polite served up cupcakes to righties as a starter, but he pitched well against lefties and could be an option against the Arizona heart. Even Orcutt moved into the rotation late in the year, but was a dominant reliever who posted a 2.42 ERA in 100.1 innings. Lefties had just five home runs against him, and got on base at a .254 clip.
Chris Davis is San Francisco’s lone lefty currently in the pen, but he may not be a great option as he doesn’t have great success against lefty hitters. He has very little of a platoon split and would best be served if the game goes long.
The rest of the San Francisco pen is all right handed. Ricky Valencia and Octavio Lopez had good success against lefties this year, and the rest of the pen was excellent overall, but it may be tough for them to hold Arizona’s sluggers off the board. Ryan DiSibio was hit hard with a high home rate, but he and Davis were the only arms to run an ERA north of 3.14.
The Giants had the fourth worst zone rating in the NL and won’t provide the pitching with many favors. San Francisco will be fortunate to have Baz and his strikeout prominence starting today.
Arizona’s A.J. Reed and Anderson Franco are solid sluggers when they get the platoon advantage. They give the team some options off the bench if an opponent commits an arm that forces a player like Gil or Barton out of the game.
Season Series
San Francisco won the season series 10-9, but was 6-3 at home. They gave up seven runs in an extra inning loss, but allowed four runs or fewer in each other game, showing the offensive struggles the Diamondbacks have on the road.
Shane Baz has made five starts this year against Arizona, going 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA, including a 3.78 mark at AT&T Park. At home, he’s struck out 22 Diamondbacks in 16.2 innings.
Jim Robinson has made six starts against the Giants, and aside from 7 shutout in his first start, really struggled. He allowed four runs in one start, and five runs in four, resulting in a 1-4 record with a 4.62 ERA.
Deciding Questions
Can Gary Ford have a big game against Baz and the Giants bullpen?
Will Jim Robinson solve San Francisco's offense for the first time since his first start of the year?
Can Arizona's baserunning force a few balks and wild pitches to manufacture offense?
Prediction: Arizona struggles to score against Baz and a good bullpen, and San Francisco continues to have Robinson’s number. Giants 5-1.