Post by Commissioner Erick on Jan 19, 2023 18:24:37 GMT -5
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles
The defending AL champs are coming off a disappointing year, but still find themselves in the playoffs, nine wins away from a repeat AL pennant. After some tough luck seasons, the Orioles find themselves back in the playoffs but needing a win for their first trip to the ALDS since 2026. The game should feature one of the league’s best teams at offensive BABIP versus the league leader in BABIP against. May the team that succeeds at managing singles end up victorious.
Orioles Offense versus Royals Pitching
The Orioles had a ferocious offense. They were only ninth in homers and dead last in base running, but still finished with 793 runs, second in the American League. They’re led by former MVP Wessel Russchen who had another MVP-caliber season this year. Russchen led the AL with a .322 average, a .590 slugging percentage, and a .958 OPS. He hit .37 homers, banged 39 doubles, and stole 20 bases.
The rest of Baltimore’s lineup is deep though, with no players with an average below .265 among their regulars. Their team .276 average led the league, fueled by a league-leading .314 BABIP. Kansas City tries to keep the ball in the park, limit walks, and win the BABIP game but Baltimore’s offense makes that hard to do.
Madman Mike Floyd is a key hitter for the Orioles. He hit .368 with a 1.028 OPS against lefties and is 9-29 lifetime against Tyler Alexander. If he has a big game, Baltimore will likely put some runs on the board.
The Royals were fifth in the AL in Zone Rating so they’re not helpless in stopping Baltimore’s attack. Their up the middle defense is excellent, and they can turn some singles into double plays if they need to. They’re set up well with Tyler Alexander on the mound, an excellent veteran who doesn’t have great stuff, but never hurts himself. Alexander only struck out 125 in 201.1 innings this year, but his 1.08 WHIP was second in the AL thanks to a tine 4.19% walk rate. In fact, in PBA postseason history, Alexander’s career 2.68% playoff walk rate ranks third all time to Aaron Nola and Eduardo Rodriguez. He led the league in BABIP, and with such a small strikeout number, will need his defense to come up big for him today.
Kansas City has a strong bullpen, though it’s very right-handed. Alex Claudio is the lone lefty and he’s starting to lose stuff with age. That will put a lot of pressure on Kansas City’s righties to get left-handed hitters out. Former Starter C.J. hoover has taken to short relief very well, posting a 1.93 ERA and holding lefties to a .449 OPS this year. He’ll likely get a chance to pitch to Russchen if Claudio was used. Frank Aguilar held lefties to a .652 OPS, Kurt Chamberland held them to a .628 OPS, and Jaquan Chassagne held them to a .705 mark, so Kansas City is filled with relievers with reverse platoon splits. If those splits hold, the Royals may be in Boston for the ALDS.
Royals Offense versus Orioles Pitching
Kansas City’s offense had a disappointing year and really struggled in the summer, but finished a solid fifth in runs scored. The team was decent in all offensive categories, but didn’t have the spectacular seasons they received from Jorge Vargas or Harland Guenette they received last year. Vargas went from hitting around .300 to hitting .248 with a career low in doubles and a career high in strikeouts. Guenette hit .333 last year with 56 doubles, and watched those numbers collapse to .246 with 27 doubles. The star power that took the offense to another level last year just disappeared.
Kansas City is better against righties than lefties, not only because Vargas and slugger Bryce Zettel are lefties, but because the hitters brought on to platoon against lefties just haven’t gotten it done this year. Joey Young has a .276 on-base percentage this year, which is abhorrent. Danny Weatherwax is hitting .178 with a .285 slugging percentage, which is putrid. Xavier Edwards is an everyday player, but his slugging percentage is .294 against lefties. It’s hard to score against lefties with so many limited hitters.
Naturally, Baltimore will roll out its lone lefty starter in Thomas Burbank today. The former Pirate has had his best two seasons with the Orioles, working to a strong 13-9 mark this year with a 3.65 ERA. He’s improved his home run marks, especially against lefties, he doesn’t walk too many hitters, and he has okay BABIPs. Not remarkable in too many ways, he’s solid enough, particularly cause he does a good job in inducing ground balls to right-handed hitters with his curveball and changeup.
Baltimore had the second best bullpen ERA in the AL. It’s very right-handed, but it’s very effective. The righties should be a nice touch with the Royals likely playing a lot of righties to handle Burbank. Zhi-peng Thum recovered from a disastrous 2028 to strike out 61 hitters in 54.2 innings. Dave Simon has a terrible postseason history, but he had a 2.38 ERA this year and the Cubs aren’t in the playoffs. Luis Ortiz looks like the league’s next great Closer with a 3.05 ERA in his sophomore year, 103 strikeouts, and a fastball-curveball combination that buckles hitters.
If Baltimore does need a lefty, a high BABIP inflated Circus Dusing’s ERA this year, but lefties hit for a .338 OPS off him this season. Rookie Steve Robertson is the team’s stopper, and he’s a little homer prone, but hardly has any platoon splits. He won nine games and saved 21 more with a 2.78 ERA. It’s a good group unless Simon’s previous postseason meltdowns are a character flaw.
Kansas City tries to succeed with BABIP as their offense has the third best strikeout rate in the AL, but Baltimore’s defense is exceptional, especially on the left side. Luis Garcia has an outstanding glove, as does Luis Paez, so anything hit on the ground to the left side will be lucky to make it through.
Season Series
Baltimore won the season series 4-3, sweeping a series in Kansas City coming out of the All Star Break, and salvaging a game at home to earn the split. Two of the three wins in the sweep were close, nail-biting affairs with Kansas City’s offense disappointing. The Orioles won the first game 2-1 with Sam Carlson and Steve Robertson two-hitting the Royals in a 2-1 win. The next day, Baltimore was two-hit in 10 innings, but the second hit was a Russchen triple in the 10th inning. He scored, Kansas City managed five hits, and the Orioles won 1-0 in extras. Baltimore opened up breathing room in the finale, winning 8-1, beating up Alexander in the process. Thomas Burbank managed one hit allowed in 7 shutout innings as Baltimore’s run prevention smothered the Royals.
Kansas City got revenge in a mirror image series in September. Sam Carlson and four relievers combined to allow one hit to Kansas City in a Game of the Week. The hit was a Jorge Vargas solo homer that stood up. Alexander rebounded from his July stinker and the Royals won 1-0 in a game with four combined hits. They had an offensive explosion against Thomas Burbank in the second game, winning in a landslide—5-1. Jonathan Bakos had a huge three-run homer for Kansas City. Vincente Corado went 8.1 shutout in the third game, the Royals beat up Sergio Arellano, and a third win earned Kansas City a series victory they needed in their run for the playoffs. The Orioles bats finally woke up in the finale with Luis Casteneda homering twice in an 11-4 Orioles win to give them the season series.
Deciding Questions:
Can Jorge Vargas shake off an underwhelming regular season and have a huge game?
Who will win the BABIP battle, Alexander or Baltimore’s batters?
Can Dave Simon finally pitch well in an elimination game?
Prediction: Baltimore’s a tough matchup for how Kansas City wants to play. The Orioles will take a small lead, expand it late, and move to the ALDS. Orioles 5-3.
The defending AL champs are coming off a disappointing year, but still find themselves in the playoffs, nine wins away from a repeat AL pennant. After some tough luck seasons, the Orioles find themselves back in the playoffs but needing a win for their first trip to the ALDS since 2026. The game should feature one of the league’s best teams at offensive BABIP versus the league leader in BABIP against. May the team that succeeds at managing singles end up victorious.
Orioles Offense versus Royals Pitching
The Orioles had a ferocious offense. They were only ninth in homers and dead last in base running, but still finished with 793 runs, second in the American League. They’re led by former MVP Wessel Russchen who had another MVP-caliber season this year. Russchen led the AL with a .322 average, a .590 slugging percentage, and a .958 OPS. He hit .37 homers, banged 39 doubles, and stole 20 bases.
The rest of Baltimore’s lineup is deep though, with no players with an average below .265 among their regulars. Their team .276 average led the league, fueled by a league-leading .314 BABIP. Kansas City tries to keep the ball in the park, limit walks, and win the BABIP game but Baltimore’s offense makes that hard to do.
Madman Mike Floyd is a key hitter for the Orioles. He hit .368 with a 1.028 OPS against lefties and is 9-29 lifetime against Tyler Alexander. If he has a big game, Baltimore will likely put some runs on the board.
The Royals were fifth in the AL in Zone Rating so they’re not helpless in stopping Baltimore’s attack. Their up the middle defense is excellent, and they can turn some singles into double plays if they need to. They’re set up well with Tyler Alexander on the mound, an excellent veteran who doesn’t have great stuff, but never hurts himself. Alexander only struck out 125 in 201.1 innings this year, but his 1.08 WHIP was second in the AL thanks to a tine 4.19% walk rate. In fact, in PBA postseason history, Alexander’s career 2.68% playoff walk rate ranks third all time to Aaron Nola and Eduardo Rodriguez. He led the league in BABIP, and with such a small strikeout number, will need his defense to come up big for him today.
Kansas City has a strong bullpen, though it’s very right-handed. Alex Claudio is the lone lefty and he’s starting to lose stuff with age. That will put a lot of pressure on Kansas City’s righties to get left-handed hitters out. Former Starter C.J. hoover has taken to short relief very well, posting a 1.93 ERA and holding lefties to a .449 OPS this year. He’ll likely get a chance to pitch to Russchen if Claudio was used. Frank Aguilar held lefties to a .652 OPS, Kurt Chamberland held them to a .628 OPS, and Jaquan Chassagne held them to a .705 mark, so Kansas City is filled with relievers with reverse platoon splits. If those splits hold, the Royals may be in Boston for the ALDS.
Royals Offense versus Orioles Pitching
Kansas City’s offense had a disappointing year and really struggled in the summer, but finished a solid fifth in runs scored. The team was decent in all offensive categories, but didn’t have the spectacular seasons they received from Jorge Vargas or Harland Guenette they received last year. Vargas went from hitting around .300 to hitting .248 with a career low in doubles and a career high in strikeouts. Guenette hit .333 last year with 56 doubles, and watched those numbers collapse to .246 with 27 doubles. The star power that took the offense to another level last year just disappeared.
Kansas City is better against righties than lefties, not only because Vargas and slugger Bryce Zettel are lefties, but because the hitters brought on to platoon against lefties just haven’t gotten it done this year. Joey Young has a .276 on-base percentage this year, which is abhorrent. Danny Weatherwax is hitting .178 with a .285 slugging percentage, which is putrid. Xavier Edwards is an everyday player, but his slugging percentage is .294 against lefties. It’s hard to score against lefties with so many limited hitters.
Naturally, Baltimore will roll out its lone lefty starter in Thomas Burbank today. The former Pirate has had his best two seasons with the Orioles, working to a strong 13-9 mark this year with a 3.65 ERA. He’s improved his home run marks, especially against lefties, he doesn’t walk too many hitters, and he has okay BABIPs. Not remarkable in too many ways, he’s solid enough, particularly cause he does a good job in inducing ground balls to right-handed hitters with his curveball and changeup.
Baltimore had the second best bullpen ERA in the AL. It’s very right-handed, but it’s very effective. The righties should be a nice touch with the Royals likely playing a lot of righties to handle Burbank. Zhi-peng Thum recovered from a disastrous 2028 to strike out 61 hitters in 54.2 innings. Dave Simon has a terrible postseason history, but he had a 2.38 ERA this year and the Cubs aren’t in the playoffs. Luis Ortiz looks like the league’s next great Closer with a 3.05 ERA in his sophomore year, 103 strikeouts, and a fastball-curveball combination that buckles hitters.
If Baltimore does need a lefty, a high BABIP inflated Circus Dusing’s ERA this year, but lefties hit for a .338 OPS off him this season. Rookie Steve Robertson is the team’s stopper, and he’s a little homer prone, but hardly has any platoon splits. He won nine games and saved 21 more with a 2.78 ERA. It’s a good group unless Simon’s previous postseason meltdowns are a character flaw.
Kansas City tries to succeed with BABIP as their offense has the third best strikeout rate in the AL, but Baltimore’s defense is exceptional, especially on the left side. Luis Garcia has an outstanding glove, as does Luis Paez, so anything hit on the ground to the left side will be lucky to make it through.
Season Series
Baltimore won the season series 4-3, sweeping a series in Kansas City coming out of the All Star Break, and salvaging a game at home to earn the split. Two of the three wins in the sweep were close, nail-biting affairs with Kansas City’s offense disappointing. The Orioles won the first game 2-1 with Sam Carlson and Steve Robertson two-hitting the Royals in a 2-1 win. The next day, Baltimore was two-hit in 10 innings, but the second hit was a Russchen triple in the 10th inning. He scored, Kansas City managed five hits, and the Orioles won 1-0 in extras. Baltimore opened up breathing room in the finale, winning 8-1, beating up Alexander in the process. Thomas Burbank managed one hit allowed in 7 shutout innings as Baltimore’s run prevention smothered the Royals.
Kansas City got revenge in a mirror image series in September. Sam Carlson and four relievers combined to allow one hit to Kansas City in a Game of the Week. The hit was a Jorge Vargas solo homer that stood up. Alexander rebounded from his July stinker and the Royals won 1-0 in a game with four combined hits. They had an offensive explosion against Thomas Burbank in the second game, winning in a landslide—5-1. Jonathan Bakos had a huge three-run homer for Kansas City. Vincente Corado went 8.1 shutout in the third game, the Royals beat up Sergio Arellano, and a third win earned Kansas City a series victory they needed in their run for the playoffs. The Orioles bats finally woke up in the finale with Luis Casteneda homering twice in an 11-4 Orioles win to give them the season series.
Deciding Questions:
Can Jorge Vargas shake off an underwhelming regular season and have a huge game?
Who will win the BABIP battle, Alexander or Baltimore’s batters?
Can Dave Simon finally pitch well in an elimination game?
Prediction: Baltimore’s a tough matchup for how Kansas City wants to play. The Orioles will take a small lead, expand it late, and move to the ALDS. Orioles 5-3.
