2029 ALCS Preview - Baltimore vs. Cleveland
Feb 5, 2023 23:40:08 GMT -5
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Post by Grubs - Philly on Feb 5, 2023 23:40:08 GMT -5
Baltimore Orioles (96-66) vs. Cleveland Indians (98-64)
Cleveland is done nibbling at the edges of postseason baseball, having lost the Wild Card game in 2027 and 2028. Baltimore has swapped GMs and is looking to make the World Series again after a quick retool. These are two teams that have taken similar approaches to building a championship-caliber club, with solid defense expected to make this a close affair.
Chris Stephan’s GuardiaIndians and Ben Nuzzo’s Orioles each have bona fide superstars in the three hole, as Luis “Four Eyes” Retana and Wessell “The Dutch Treat” Russchen try to push their squads to the World Series. Cleveland controlled the season series, taking five of seven against Baltimore. The ALCS begins on the shores of Lake Erie at Progressive Field.
Baltimore offense vs. Cleveland pitching/defense
The Orioles thrive by putting the bat on the ball, leading the American League with a .276 team average. The O’s are not a patient team, with a bottom-three walk rate. But they also don’t strike out, sporting a PBA-low K rate of 17.4 percent. There’s not a huge handedness split, with a .768 OPS against righties that drops a mere 18 points to .750 against lefties. The Orioles don’t bomb the seats against southpaws (just 32 homers), but they have the PBA’s second-highest batting average against them. The team tends to launch the longball more against righthanders, but is overall middle of the pack when it comes to home runs. Baltimore sports the AL’s second-highest OPS and plays great station-to-station ball, swiping 92 bases – a top-three total.
It’s Wessell Russchen’s team. His return to health led to a league-high .322 average, .590 slugging mark and .958 OPS. He doesn’t have a cannon in center, but he’s smart and built an 8 WAR season on amazing offense, plus defense and whip-smart base running (20/23 in steal attempts). The leadoff tandem of David Bollman and Luis Paez batted about .280 and Luis Castaneda has been a stable presence in the no. 2 hole. He does hit into his share of double plays, which could be a key to limiting Russchen’s impact. Behind Russchen, Mike Floyd’s power has slipped, but he is enjoying career highs in average and on base percentage. An aging Emmanuel Tapia is still a reliable RBI man. The Orioles shuffle their order depending on who’s taking the mound, but it’s all the same faces.
Cleveland has a clear advantage when it comes to starting pitching. Ernesto Ortega, Josh Woodward and Chad Simon all notched more than 200 innings this year. Ortega had the standout year, but the other two are plenty solid. Both Woodward and Ortega will look to challenge Baltimore hitters, as strikeouts are a big part of their game. Luis Esparza’s 188 innings of a 3.58 ERA would make any manager jealous of this kind of depth. The Indians’ bullpen is solid, but unspectacular. Strikeouts feature here, too, with John Kinser’s 11.8 K/9 rate leading the pack during the regular season. Tony Fleury is the lone lefty, and has thrown barely 16 innings all year. Still, he’s been lights out in limited playoff work and his presence will be something to watch.
Cleveland has the PBA’s best total zone rating across defensive regulars, and it’s not even close – 54.9. The team has the league’s fewest errors and is beyond solid up the middle, with Retana and Nonie Williams forming perhaps the game’s best middle infield. The team is fairly hard to steal on, too, as Juan Aguilar is one of the game’s premier arms and a solid game caller.
Cleveland offense vs. Baltimore pitching/defense
The Indians’ offense is consistent; maybe maddeningly so. Luis Retana’s 30 home runs were tops on the squad, but 8 other players tallied double digit bombs. Lourdes Gurriel is the only offensive player with a negative WAR. Ernesto Adames’ 23 steals (caught just three times) lead the team, but somehow Cleveland’s 93 steals were second in the AL. Retana is the only regular with an OPS above .800, but six other starters have an OPS of at least .700. The only thing that changes when there’s a lefty on the mound is the order of the 7-8 batters. This seems like the kind of squad many teams think they’ll beat, only to be ground down by a relentless attack that is patient, too, with a top-five walk rate in the PBA.
Retana makes this group go. Though his offensive numbers aren’t quite as high as years past, he’s as grounded a presence as there is in the PBA. Having a Gold Glove shortstop batting third is a pipe dream for most teams. He does it all, and does all of it extremely well. Bryce Harper is a shell of his former self, but has an impeccable playoff pedigree and still rakes at an above-average pace. First baseman Julian Infante shouldn’t be this good, but he is, and the Indians have wisely leaned into it.
The Indians excel against lefties, crashing 81 homers while being even more patient than normal. Nonie Williams absolutely crushes southpaws, with an OPS above 1.000 and 14 of his 23 homers. He hits leadoff against them, and should terrify the Orioles’ lone lefty starter, Thomas Burbank, in game three. Two of the three stoppers in Baltimore’s three-headed monster bullpen are lefties, making for some potentially fantastic late-inning encounters.
Baltimore’s pitching is not unlike Cleveland’s hitting. This squad won’t overwhelm many teams, but it will wear them down – then lock them down with three stoppers: Eric Dusing, Luis Ortiz and super-reliever Steve Robertson, who threw 100 innings of 2.78 ERA ball with 10 K/9 and 21 saves. Sam Carlson is the de facto ace, though there’s not a true lights-out starter here. Carlson and Burbank find ways to win, though, and each notched at least 180 innings over 30+ starts. Luis Ortega has been a sometime starter and his 2.95 ERA will be a key link to the bullpen’s back end. Dave Simon is on this team, and having a resurgent year at the ripe old age of 28. He’s only given up two playoff home runs in his career, but they’ve haunted the Phillies. He’s been almost untouchable in middle relief this postseason.
On defense, Baltimore can hold its own. In fact, the Orioles have the second-best team zone rating in the PBA, but the 44.32 mark is far behind Cleveland. Still, the Orioles are better at defending the steal and are even more efficient on defense than the Indians. The left side of the infield and all of the outfield is good to great. That said, the savvy runner can take the extra base, as Bollman, Russchen and David Kouns don’t throw out many baserunners from the outfield grass. This is a terrific defensive squad, though. Even Mike Floyd has found his glove at first base, with a 2.9 zone rating and just five errors in more than 1,100 chances.
Questions for Chris Stephan:
Ernesto Ortega had a rough outing against Oakland last time out, but he’s rested. Will you still run out Chad Simon for Game One?
Ernesto Adames is struggling. Do you have any plans to bump him down in the order to hopefully find his stroke, or will you let him work through it up top?
Sean Reynolds seems to be one of those guys who finds a way to make an impact. What’s his role for you, given Bryce Harper’s strong postseason performance and the potential for some tight games in the late innings?
Questions for Ben Nuzzo:
Your bullpen has been so good this year, but Ortega had a nightmare outing and Price had a bad series against Boston. Any change to your strategy? Will you let your starters go longer or perhaps keep a tight leash and let the ‘pen clean up any messes?
Wessell Russchen has been phenomenal. He’s shone in the postseason before. Are you the least bit concerned he’s trying to do too much, or is he still learning just how much he can do?
Your squad has been very efficient swiping bags this year. Do you look to take a more aggressive approach to stolen bases in the hope that you might force an excellent defensive team into making a mistake?
Prediction: Attempting one might be futile, as this seems primed to be an epic series. Cleveland’s pitching proves too much in a series that’s closer than it looks as the Indians take it in 6.
Cleveland is done nibbling at the edges of postseason baseball, having lost the Wild Card game in 2027 and 2028. Baltimore has swapped GMs and is looking to make the World Series again after a quick retool. These are two teams that have taken similar approaches to building a championship-caliber club, with solid defense expected to make this a close affair.
Chris Stephan’s GuardiaIndians and Ben Nuzzo’s Orioles each have bona fide superstars in the three hole, as Luis “Four Eyes” Retana and Wessell “The Dutch Treat” Russchen try to push their squads to the World Series. Cleveland controlled the season series, taking five of seven against Baltimore. The ALCS begins on the shores of Lake Erie at Progressive Field.
Baltimore offense vs. Cleveland pitching/defense
The Orioles thrive by putting the bat on the ball, leading the American League with a .276 team average. The O’s are not a patient team, with a bottom-three walk rate. But they also don’t strike out, sporting a PBA-low K rate of 17.4 percent. There’s not a huge handedness split, with a .768 OPS against righties that drops a mere 18 points to .750 against lefties. The Orioles don’t bomb the seats against southpaws (just 32 homers), but they have the PBA’s second-highest batting average against them. The team tends to launch the longball more against righthanders, but is overall middle of the pack when it comes to home runs. Baltimore sports the AL’s second-highest OPS and plays great station-to-station ball, swiping 92 bases – a top-three total.
It’s Wessell Russchen’s team. His return to health led to a league-high .322 average, .590 slugging mark and .958 OPS. He doesn’t have a cannon in center, but he’s smart and built an 8 WAR season on amazing offense, plus defense and whip-smart base running (20/23 in steal attempts). The leadoff tandem of David Bollman and Luis Paez batted about .280 and Luis Castaneda has been a stable presence in the no. 2 hole. He does hit into his share of double plays, which could be a key to limiting Russchen’s impact. Behind Russchen, Mike Floyd’s power has slipped, but he is enjoying career highs in average and on base percentage. An aging Emmanuel Tapia is still a reliable RBI man. The Orioles shuffle their order depending on who’s taking the mound, but it’s all the same faces.
Cleveland has a clear advantage when it comes to starting pitching. Ernesto Ortega, Josh Woodward and Chad Simon all notched more than 200 innings this year. Ortega had the standout year, but the other two are plenty solid. Both Woodward and Ortega will look to challenge Baltimore hitters, as strikeouts are a big part of their game. Luis Esparza’s 188 innings of a 3.58 ERA would make any manager jealous of this kind of depth. The Indians’ bullpen is solid, but unspectacular. Strikeouts feature here, too, with John Kinser’s 11.8 K/9 rate leading the pack during the regular season. Tony Fleury is the lone lefty, and has thrown barely 16 innings all year. Still, he’s been lights out in limited playoff work and his presence will be something to watch.
Cleveland has the PBA’s best total zone rating across defensive regulars, and it’s not even close – 54.9. The team has the league’s fewest errors and is beyond solid up the middle, with Retana and Nonie Williams forming perhaps the game’s best middle infield. The team is fairly hard to steal on, too, as Juan Aguilar is one of the game’s premier arms and a solid game caller.
Cleveland offense vs. Baltimore pitching/defense
The Indians’ offense is consistent; maybe maddeningly so. Luis Retana’s 30 home runs were tops on the squad, but 8 other players tallied double digit bombs. Lourdes Gurriel is the only offensive player with a negative WAR. Ernesto Adames’ 23 steals (caught just three times) lead the team, but somehow Cleveland’s 93 steals were second in the AL. Retana is the only regular with an OPS above .800, but six other starters have an OPS of at least .700. The only thing that changes when there’s a lefty on the mound is the order of the 7-8 batters. This seems like the kind of squad many teams think they’ll beat, only to be ground down by a relentless attack that is patient, too, with a top-five walk rate in the PBA.
Retana makes this group go. Though his offensive numbers aren’t quite as high as years past, he’s as grounded a presence as there is in the PBA. Having a Gold Glove shortstop batting third is a pipe dream for most teams. He does it all, and does all of it extremely well. Bryce Harper is a shell of his former self, but has an impeccable playoff pedigree and still rakes at an above-average pace. First baseman Julian Infante shouldn’t be this good, but he is, and the Indians have wisely leaned into it.
The Indians excel against lefties, crashing 81 homers while being even more patient than normal. Nonie Williams absolutely crushes southpaws, with an OPS above 1.000 and 14 of his 23 homers. He hits leadoff against them, and should terrify the Orioles’ lone lefty starter, Thomas Burbank, in game three. Two of the three stoppers in Baltimore’s three-headed monster bullpen are lefties, making for some potentially fantastic late-inning encounters.
Baltimore’s pitching is not unlike Cleveland’s hitting. This squad won’t overwhelm many teams, but it will wear them down – then lock them down with three stoppers: Eric Dusing, Luis Ortiz and super-reliever Steve Robertson, who threw 100 innings of 2.78 ERA ball with 10 K/9 and 21 saves. Sam Carlson is the de facto ace, though there’s not a true lights-out starter here. Carlson and Burbank find ways to win, though, and each notched at least 180 innings over 30+ starts. Luis Ortega has been a sometime starter and his 2.95 ERA will be a key link to the bullpen’s back end. Dave Simon is on this team, and having a resurgent year at the ripe old age of 28. He’s only given up two playoff home runs in his career, but they’ve haunted the Phillies. He’s been almost untouchable in middle relief this postseason.
On defense, Baltimore can hold its own. In fact, the Orioles have the second-best team zone rating in the PBA, but the 44.32 mark is far behind Cleveland. Still, the Orioles are better at defending the steal and are even more efficient on defense than the Indians. The left side of the infield and all of the outfield is good to great. That said, the savvy runner can take the extra base, as Bollman, Russchen and David Kouns don’t throw out many baserunners from the outfield grass. This is a terrific defensive squad, though. Even Mike Floyd has found his glove at first base, with a 2.9 zone rating and just five errors in more than 1,100 chances.
Questions for Chris Stephan:
Ernesto Ortega had a rough outing against Oakland last time out, but he’s rested. Will you still run out Chad Simon for Game One?
Ernesto Adames is struggling. Do you have any plans to bump him down in the order to hopefully find his stroke, or will you let him work through it up top?
Sean Reynolds seems to be one of those guys who finds a way to make an impact. What’s his role for you, given Bryce Harper’s strong postseason performance and the potential for some tight games in the late innings?
Questions for Ben Nuzzo:
Your bullpen has been so good this year, but Ortega had a nightmare outing and Price had a bad series against Boston. Any change to your strategy? Will you let your starters go longer or perhaps keep a tight leash and let the ‘pen clean up any messes?
Wessell Russchen has been phenomenal. He’s shone in the postseason before. Are you the least bit concerned he’s trying to do too much, or is he still learning just how much he can do?
Your squad has been very efficient swiping bags this year. Do you look to take a more aggressive approach to stolen bases in the hope that you might force an excellent defensive team into making a mistake?
Prediction: Attempting one might be futile, as this seems primed to be an epic series. Cleveland’s pitching proves too much in a series that’s closer than it looks as the Indians take it in 6.
