Post by Commissioner Erick on Feb 6, 2023 16:34:41 GMT -5
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants
Offense will be the theme of this year’s NLCS. The Philadelphia Phillies won four road games to vanquish the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS with their offense picking up steam as the series went on. The Phillies scored eight or more runs three times in the NLDS against a very good Dodgers staff. The San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, finally had enough offense to vanquish the defending champion Milwaukee Brewers. They averaged six runs a game the final six games of the series against a historically good Brewers staff. Two ferocious offenses should lead to one fantastic series.
Phillies Offense versus Giants Pitching
Philadelphia’s offense is really firing on all gears. The Phillies were fourth in offense in the regular season and had no issues handling a good Dodgers pitching staff in the NLDS. The team slammed 15 homers against Los Angeles with eight different hitters getting in on the act. The slugging numbers were fantastic, but three hitters got on base more than 40% of the time, including non-slugger Charles Galimberti. Philadelphia’s offense is traditionally looked at as weak against left-handed pitching, but they had a similar OPS in the mid-800s against the Dodgers lefties as well as their righties. It shapes up to be one of the most balanced Phillies attacks since their early decade clubs.
If there’s a nitpick, it’s that after the legacy stars, Mickey Moniak and Seth Beer, and minus Destiny Galimberti and Isaiah High, the team did struggle to get on base against Los Angeles. Bobby Witt Jr. had a passible .310 OBP and Allen Whitmore was an even .300, but everyone else was sub-.300. San Francisco was a little better at limiting slugging percentages during the regular season than Los Angeles so Philadelphia’s ability to get on base could be a key factor in the series.
San Francisco’s pitching staff, however, was honestly beat up by Milwaukee in the NLDS and Philadelphia has a similar balanced and deep attack that the Brewers presented. Alfredo Esteves pitched great in Game 6, and a bullpen game came up big in Game 1, but Milwaukee scored at least six runs in four games of the series. Considering San Francisco’s best arms are right-handed and their struggles against the Brewers, Philadelphia may be able to score some runs. The Giants arms are still very deep and talented so it’s hard to expect blowouts, but it’s doubtful Philadelphia has a quiet offensive series.
Philadelphia has some speed and the Brewers have allowed six of seven base stealers to steal successfully, which could be a subplot. San Francisco’s defense isn’t great, but the Phillies may strike out too frequently to really take advantage.
Giants Offense versus Phillies Pitching
This is where there may be a mismatch. The Giants offense was fifth in the regular season, but even that’s a bit misleading. The team was better than fifth in most offensive stats and also added to its roster throughout the year. The club faced off with Milwaukee’s future Hall-of-Famers in the NLDS and had no trouble scoring after the first game of the series.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s run prevention was very good—third in runs prevented, but the unit was very dependent on the bullpen as both Philadelphia’s staff and defense were underwhelming. Philadelphia’s run prevention got worse and worse as their series with the Dodgers went on, and they ended up allowing 7.5 runs the last four games of the series. None of Philadelphia’s starters had an ERA under 4 in the regular season or the NLDS and a very good bullpen had a mediocre 4.28 NLDS ERA.
There is a huge mitigating factor to the NLDS total and NLDS bullpen numbers—A.J. Masucci missed virtually all of the series with a barking elbow. Entering the NLCS, Masucci has said he’s finally pain free, but Philadelphia’s doctors will sit him for Game 1, allowing him an extra day of rest. Masucci’s been the goods since becoming a reliever, and held a stellar 2.02 ERA this season with only five homers allowed despite Citizens Bank Park being a homer haven. If he’s on his game, he’s a star who can work multiple innings and handle even the best hitters.
Masucci may also allow the Phillies’ other relivers to pitch better in less stressful roles. Cole Ragans, Josh Agboola, and Bonkers Carrizales had excellent regular seasons, but struggled against the Dodgers with increased roles. Masucci’s presence may allow them to pitch less often and more effectively in the NLCS.
San Francisco’s offense truly is a bear though. Zipper Willemsen and Kelyn Klattenburger each had 10 hits in the NLDS, and All-Star Catcher Brian Hampton drove in nine runs. They bring former All-Stars Jadon Ancrum and Victor Robles off the bench, and every member of their lineup has either been an All-Star, a Top 25 Prospect, or is defensive specialist Fernando Tatis Jr. The lineup is extremely left-handed, but Philadelphia only has one lefty starter and Chris Cammett is exhausted. Philly will likely turn to left-handed relievers very quickly making for a fun late game chess match.
In terms of more miscellaneous factors, Juan Herrera is okay at throwing out runners, but excels at framing and not allowing passed balls. Philadelphia was fifth best at not throwing wild pitches and second best at not hitting batters, which should keep San Francisco from getting extra players on base and moving up on the bases. Philadelphia’s defense is—fine. Virtually the entire team has a neutral zone rating, though Bobby Witt Jr. hasn’t been great as a Shortstop. San Francisco can run—the team was sixth in steals, and may be able to take advantage of Herrera throwing runners out.
Season Series
San Francisco won the season series, sweeping Philadelphia at home in late June after dropping two of three in Citizens Bank Park in April. The Phillies tagged Alfredo Estevez in their first game of the season, and currently injured Dave Dombrowski pitched well in a 7-3 Phillies win. Philadelphia then turned around a 3-2 deficit with a nine-run seventh inning (!), with the club teeing off against minor leaguer Charlie Castillo and winning 11-4. San Francisco salvaged the finale with Tripod and three relievers allowing one run in a 7-1 win.
The good pitching continued for San Francisco in June when they allowed a single run in each game of a three-game sweep of the Phillies. Chris Davis allowed a run in 8 innings in a 7-1 win; Estevez got a measure of revenge with 6.1 shutout innings of a 3-1 Giants win in in the middle game; and Shane Baz and three relievers allowed just two hits in a 2-1 finale to give San Francisco a series sweep and the season series.
Deciding Questions
Can Philadelphia’s starting pitching keep the Phillies in games long enough for the bullpen to shut the door?
The Phillies have largely struggled against Giants pitching not currently in Triple-A. Can they produce crooked numbers this series?
Can San Francisco strike out enough Phillies to not have their porous defense sabotage the club?
Prediction
Philadelphia will have some games they don’t score well, and they won’t win those games. San Francisco is more likely to put up runs consistently given Philadelphia’s lack of starting pitching talent. In games Philadelphia can crack at leas four runs, the teams are close enough with enough star power where anything will happen, but a few 4-2 Giants wins in games will be the difference in a 4-2 Giants win in the series. Giants 4-2.
Offense will be the theme of this year’s NLCS. The Philadelphia Phillies won four road games to vanquish the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS with their offense picking up steam as the series went on. The Phillies scored eight or more runs three times in the NLDS against a very good Dodgers staff. The San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, finally had enough offense to vanquish the defending champion Milwaukee Brewers. They averaged six runs a game the final six games of the series against a historically good Brewers staff. Two ferocious offenses should lead to one fantastic series.
Phillies Offense versus Giants Pitching
Philadelphia’s offense is really firing on all gears. The Phillies were fourth in offense in the regular season and had no issues handling a good Dodgers pitching staff in the NLDS. The team slammed 15 homers against Los Angeles with eight different hitters getting in on the act. The slugging numbers were fantastic, but three hitters got on base more than 40% of the time, including non-slugger Charles Galimberti. Philadelphia’s offense is traditionally looked at as weak against left-handed pitching, but they had a similar OPS in the mid-800s against the Dodgers lefties as well as their righties. It shapes up to be one of the most balanced Phillies attacks since their early decade clubs.
If there’s a nitpick, it’s that after the legacy stars, Mickey Moniak and Seth Beer, and minus Destiny Galimberti and Isaiah High, the team did struggle to get on base against Los Angeles. Bobby Witt Jr. had a passible .310 OBP and Allen Whitmore was an even .300, but everyone else was sub-.300. San Francisco was a little better at limiting slugging percentages during the regular season than Los Angeles so Philadelphia’s ability to get on base could be a key factor in the series.
San Francisco’s pitching staff, however, was honestly beat up by Milwaukee in the NLDS and Philadelphia has a similar balanced and deep attack that the Brewers presented. Alfredo Esteves pitched great in Game 6, and a bullpen game came up big in Game 1, but Milwaukee scored at least six runs in four games of the series. Considering San Francisco’s best arms are right-handed and their struggles against the Brewers, Philadelphia may be able to score some runs. The Giants arms are still very deep and talented so it’s hard to expect blowouts, but it’s doubtful Philadelphia has a quiet offensive series.
Philadelphia has some speed and the Brewers have allowed six of seven base stealers to steal successfully, which could be a subplot. San Francisco’s defense isn’t great, but the Phillies may strike out too frequently to really take advantage.
Giants Offense versus Phillies Pitching
This is where there may be a mismatch. The Giants offense was fifth in the regular season, but even that’s a bit misleading. The team was better than fifth in most offensive stats and also added to its roster throughout the year. The club faced off with Milwaukee’s future Hall-of-Famers in the NLDS and had no trouble scoring after the first game of the series.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s run prevention was very good—third in runs prevented, but the unit was very dependent on the bullpen as both Philadelphia’s staff and defense were underwhelming. Philadelphia’s run prevention got worse and worse as their series with the Dodgers went on, and they ended up allowing 7.5 runs the last four games of the series. None of Philadelphia’s starters had an ERA under 4 in the regular season or the NLDS and a very good bullpen had a mediocre 4.28 NLDS ERA.
There is a huge mitigating factor to the NLDS total and NLDS bullpen numbers—A.J. Masucci missed virtually all of the series with a barking elbow. Entering the NLCS, Masucci has said he’s finally pain free, but Philadelphia’s doctors will sit him for Game 1, allowing him an extra day of rest. Masucci’s been the goods since becoming a reliever, and held a stellar 2.02 ERA this season with only five homers allowed despite Citizens Bank Park being a homer haven. If he’s on his game, he’s a star who can work multiple innings and handle even the best hitters.
Masucci may also allow the Phillies’ other relivers to pitch better in less stressful roles. Cole Ragans, Josh Agboola, and Bonkers Carrizales had excellent regular seasons, but struggled against the Dodgers with increased roles. Masucci’s presence may allow them to pitch less often and more effectively in the NLCS.
San Francisco’s offense truly is a bear though. Zipper Willemsen and Kelyn Klattenburger each had 10 hits in the NLDS, and All-Star Catcher Brian Hampton drove in nine runs. They bring former All-Stars Jadon Ancrum and Victor Robles off the bench, and every member of their lineup has either been an All-Star, a Top 25 Prospect, or is defensive specialist Fernando Tatis Jr. The lineup is extremely left-handed, but Philadelphia only has one lefty starter and Chris Cammett is exhausted. Philly will likely turn to left-handed relievers very quickly making for a fun late game chess match.
In terms of more miscellaneous factors, Juan Herrera is okay at throwing out runners, but excels at framing and not allowing passed balls. Philadelphia was fifth best at not throwing wild pitches and second best at not hitting batters, which should keep San Francisco from getting extra players on base and moving up on the bases. Philadelphia’s defense is—fine. Virtually the entire team has a neutral zone rating, though Bobby Witt Jr. hasn’t been great as a Shortstop. San Francisco can run—the team was sixth in steals, and may be able to take advantage of Herrera throwing runners out.
Season Series
San Francisco won the season series, sweeping Philadelphia at home in late June after dropping two of three in Citizens Bank Park in April. The Phillies tagged Alfredo Estevez in their first game of the season, and currently injured Dave Dombrowski pitched well in a 7-3 Phillies win. Philadelphia then turned around a 3-2 deficit with a nine-run seventh inning (!), with the club teeing off against minor leaguer Charlie Castillo and winning 11-4. San Francisco salvaged the finale with Tripod and three relievers allowing one run in a 7-1 win.
The good pitching continued for San Francisco in June when they allowed a single run in each game of a three-game sweep of the Phillies. Chris Davis allowed a run in 8 innings in a 7-1 win; Estevez got a measure of revenge with 6.1 shutout innings of a 3-1 Giants win in in the middle game; and Shane Baz and three relievers allowed just two hits in a 2-1 finale to give San Francisco a series sweep and the season series.
Deciding Questions
Can Philadelphia’s starting pitching keep the Phillies in games long enough for the bullpen to shut the door?
The Phillies have largely struggled against Giants pitching not currently in Triple-A. Can they produce crooked numbers this series?
Can San Francisco strike out enough Phillies to not have their porous defense sabotage the club?
Prediction
Philadelphia will have some games they don’t score well, and they won’t win those games. San Francisco is more likely to put up runs consistently given Philadelphia’s lack of starting pitching talent. In games Philadelphia can crack at leas four runs, the teams are close enough with enough star power where anything will happen, but a few 4-2 Giants wins in games will be the difference in a 4-2 Giants win in the series. Giants 4-2.