Post by Commissioner Erick on Jul 2, 2023 9:14:02 GMT -5
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals surged over the second half of the season, first holding their own and playing strong baseball against a rough group of competitors, then running the table against the dregs of the league to finish on a 13-game winning streak. They managed to come from way back to pull the Wild Card Game location from California to The Cardinals Nest in the process.
Their reward will be a showdown against the defending champion San Francisco Giants. San Francisco is a 100-win juggernaut, but they had some uncharacteristic clunkers down the stretch. They dropped a series versus Miami in September that loomed large, and were swept at home the final weekend by the Dodgers, costing them an automatic berth in the NLDS.
The Wild Card Game will either be a culmination of St. Louis’ continued ascent in the NL zeitgeist, combined with a terribly disappointing final three weeks of the year for San Francisco, or it will be a reminder of San Francisco’s fantastic talent level and the championship threat they pose.
Cardinals Offense versus Giants Pitching
The Cardinals were a solid offense throughout the year, but found their groove late as their .817 OPS in September was second best in the league.
Their offense is a little bit more right handed than most, meaning they hit lefties better than righties. Calvin Mitchell and David Witter are the only true lefties. There are three switch hitters in the lineup, but they also hit left-handers better than right handers. If San Francisco throws a left-handed hitter, the Cardinals may feast.
St. Louis’ offense is balanced and dangerous. The first six hitters all have at least 23 homers except for Juan Vega, who was injured for six weeks. They also all have an average in the .260s and .270s, aside from Davit Witter, who compensates with walks, and Calvin Mitchell who hit .311.
San Francisco will send Walter Trahan to the hill. Acquired for a fifth round pick and Arturo Rigal, Trahan doesn’t pitch deep, but he does pitch effectively. The Giants made him a starter this year and he produced a 3.14 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He’ll give San Francisco 77 good pitches.
The Giants will go with an excellent, mostly right-handed, bullpen. Octavio Lopez has been a postseason stalwart for years, and is very tough to homer off of. Alex McKee had the best year of his career, working to a 2.17 ERA. Mehki Lias has fallen off from his best days, but he’s also one of the best postseason performers ever.
Tim Johnson is likely a notch below those arms, but he’s good against righties, and Ricky Valencia has the stuff to succeed, though he struggled last postseason and was hit hard in the playoffs.
Shamar Polite was outstanding from the left side, but likely will only face a batter or two today.
The Giants defense is very poor, second worst in the league in zone rating. They’re very vulnerable up the middle, so St. Louis’ ability to make good contact will be important.
Bryan Martelo has good pop off St. Louis bench if they need to pinch hit. Trent Clark can also be used as a pinch hitter against San Francisco’s righties to get the platoon advantage, but he only hit .205 this year in 127 plate appearances.
Giants Offense versus Cardinals Pitching
The Cardinals allowed the fewest runs in the league this year, going without a starting pitcher. They carried the fifth best walk rate, the fourth best strikeout rate, and the best opponents average against in the league. They also all avoid homers, aside from low-leverage option Josh Hagey, and strikeout extraordinaire Chris Yera. Ryan Castellani is the only arm with a FIP starting with more than a three.
The Cardinals support their pitching with an average defense, but one that is strong up the middle. Ronny Mauricio is a three-time Gold Glove winner, Alan Mitchell is a strong defensive Center Fielder, and when he does play, Trent Clark is a former Gold Glove winner himself.
It’s a great approach, and it will need to be spot on to face a Giants team that finished second in runs in the regular season and romped through last year’s playoffs.
Five Giants hit at least 30 home runs this year, with a pair bashing 46, all while playing in one of baseball’s extreme pitcher’s parks. Of those sluggers, only Juan Campos’ .250 average was below .276. This doesn’t count Cannibal Espassandim, who hit .291 with 27 homers as a Second Baseman, or Andres Gimenez, a Platinum Stick Winner who missed most of the season after an injury skipping stones in a lake.
The only weaknesses come at the bottom of the order, where Brian Hampton’s average has regressed and he only hit .210, and Luis Paez only slugged .379. Even then, Hampton hit 21 homers and Paez hit .277.
Off the bench, Manny Machado struggled this year but can pinch hit and do damage off the bench. He gives the team a lot of flexibility in case of an injury, and he hit lefties well this year. Aaron Allen struggled in a pinch hitting role, but also has talent off the bench if needed. Luis Zapien can run if the club needs a pinch runner.
Season Series
The Giants won the season series handily behind great pitching. They took two of three at home before the All Star break. Rich Sparks pitched a gem to take the first game 6-2, before St. Louis one-hit the Giants in the middle game to win 2-1. The finale saw the Giants cut a 6-2 lead to 6-4 in the eighth with a Kelyn Klattenburger two run homer. Some small ball and a Chris Malloy double tied the game in the ninth. A bases-loaded walk to Andrew Beinintendi in the 13th with St. Louis on their 10th pitcher took the series.
The first week in September, the Giants won three of four in St. Louis. Trahan took the opener behind 5.1 innings of one-run ball to lead the team to a 5-3 win, before Alfredo Estevez struck out 10 over 6.1 shutout innings, allowing just two hits as the Giants won 2-1.
Juan Campos went 4-4 in the third game and Tristan Casas allowed just two runs over 5.2 to take the series. St. Louis did salvage the finale as their pitching didn’t allow an earned run in a 3-1 victory.
Deciding Questions
In what generally have been low-scoring affairs, which bullpen will work best? St. Louis’ nine-inning approach, or the four-plus expected from San Francisco today?
Can the Cardinals zap San Francisco’s power like they did over the regular season?
St. Louis will likely need one of their right-handed hitters to come through against a right-handed pitcher. Will High or Vega get the big hit?
Prediction: Both teams will pitch well, but San Francisco just has more offensive talent. They win a close one. Giants 5-3.
The St. Louis Cardinals surged over the second half of the season, first holding their own and playing strong baseball against a rough group of competitors, then running the table against the dregs of the league to finish on a 13-game winning streak. They managed to come from way back to pull the Wild Card Game location from California to The Cardinals Nest in the process.
Their reward will be a showdown against the defending champion San Francisco Giants. San Francisco is a 100-win juggernaut, but they had some uncharacteristic clunkers down the stretch. They dropped a series versus Miami in September that loomed large, and were swept at home the final weekend by the Dodgers, costing them an automatic berth in the NLDS.
The Wild Card Game will either be a culmination of St. Louis’ continued ascent in the NL zeitgeist, combined with a terribly disappointing final three weeks of the year for San Francisco, or it will be a reminder of San Francisco’s fantastic talent level and the championship threat they pose.
Cardinals Offense versus Giants Pitching
The Cardinals were a solid offense throughout the year, but found their groove late as their .817 OPS in September was second best in the league.
Their offense is a little bit more right handed than most, meaning they hit lefties better than righties. Calvin Mitchell and David Witter are the only true lefties. There are three switch hitters in the lineup, but they also hit left-handers better than right handers. If San Francisco throws a left-handed hitter, the Cardinals may feast.
St. Louis’ offense is balanced and dangerous. The first six hitters all have at least 23 homers except for Juan Vega, who was injured for six weeks. They also all have an average in the .260s and .270s, aside from Davit Witter, who compensates with walks, and Calvin Mitchell who hit .311.
San Francisco will send Walter Trahan to the hill. Acquired for a fifth round pick and Arturo Rigal, Trahan doesn’t pitch deep, but he does pitch effectively. The Giants made him a starter this year and he produced a 3.14 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He’ll give San Francisco 77 good pitches.
The Giants will go with an excellent, mostly right-handed, bullpen. Octavio Lopez has been a postseason stalwart for years, and is very tough to homer off of. Alex McKee had the best year of his career, working to a 2.17 ERA. Mehki Lias has fallen off from his best days, but he’s also one of the best postseason performers ever.
Tim Johnson is likely a notch below those arms, but he’s good against righties, and Ricky Valencia has the stuff to succeed, though he struggled last postseason and was hit hard in the playoffs.
Shamar Polite was outstanding from the left side, but likely will only face a batter or two today.
The Giants defense is very poor, second worst in the league in zone rating. They’re very vulnerable up the middle, so St. Louis’ ability to make good contact will be important.
Bryan Martelo has good pop off St. Louis bench if they need to pinch hit. Trent Clark can also be used as a pinch hitter against San Francisco’s righties to get the platoon advantage, but he only hit .205 this year in 127 plate appearances.
Giants Offense versus Cardinals Pitching
The Cardinals allowed the fewest runs in the league this year, going without a starting pitcher. They carried the fifth best walk rate, the fourth best strikeout rate, and the best opponents average against in the league. They also all avoid homers, aside from low-leverage option Josh Hagey, and strikeout extraordinaire Chris Yera. Ryan Castellani is the only arm with a FIP starting with more than a three.
The Cardinals support their pitching with an average defense, but one that is strong up the middle. Ronny Mauricio is a three-time Gold Glove winner, Alan Mitchell is a strong defensive Center Fielder, and when he does play, Trent Clark is a former Gold Glove winner himself.
It’s a great approach, and it will need to be spot on to face a Giants team that finished second in runs in the regular season and romped through last year’s playoffs.
Five Giants hit at least 30 home runs this year, with a pair bashing 46, all while playing in one of baseball’s extreme pitcher’s parks. Of those sluggers, only Juan Campos’ .250 average was below .276. This doesn’t count Cannibal Espassandim, who hit .291 with 27 homers as a Second Baseman, or Andres Gimenez, a Platinum Stick Winner who missed most of the season after an injury skipping stones in a lake.
The only weaknesses come at the bottom of the order, where Brian Hampton’s average has regressed and he only hit .210, and Luis Paez only slugged .379. Even then, Hampton hit 21 homers and Paez hit .277.
Off the bench, Manny Machado struggled this year but can pinch hit and do damage off the bench. He gives the team a lot of flexibility in case of an injury, and he hit lefties well this year. Aaron Allen struggled in a pinch hitting role, but also has talent off the bench if needed. Luis Zapien can run if the club needs a pinch runner.
Season Series
The Giants won the season series handily behind great pitching. They took two of three at home before the All Star break. Rich Sparks pitched a gem to take the first game 6-2, before St. Louis one-hit the Giants in the middle game to win 2-1. The finale saw the Giants cut a 6-2 lead to 6-4 in the eighth with a Kelyn Klattenburger two run homer. Some small ball and a Chris Malloy double tied the game in the ninth. A bases-loaded walk to Andrew Beinintendi in the 13th with St. Louis on their 10th pitcher took the series.
The first week in September, the Giants won three of four in St. Louis. Trahan took the opener behind 5.1 innings of one-run ball to lead the team to a 5-3 win, before Alfredo Estevez struck out 10 over 6.1 shutout innings, allowing just two hits as the Giants won 2-1.
Juan Campos went 4-4 in the third game and Tristan Casas allowed just two runs over 5.2 to take the series. St. Louis did salvage the finale as their pitching didn’t allow an earned run in a 3-1 victory.
Deciding Questions
In what generally have been low-scoring affairs, which bullpen will work best? St. Louis’ nine-inning approach, or the four-plus expected from San Francisco today?
Can the Cardinals zap San Francisco’s power like they did over the regular season?
St. Louis will likely need one of their right-handed hitters to come through against a right-handed pitcher. Will High or Vega get the big hit?
Prediction: Both teams will pitch well, but San Francisco just has more offensive talent. They win a close one. Giants 5-3.