Post by brewersgm on Jul 6, 2023 12:10:49 GMT -5
Los Angeles Dodgers (104-58) vs Philadelphia Phillies (100-62)
It's become a familiar match-up in the National League. For the 3rd year in a row and 4th time overall the Phillies and Dodgers will meet in the Divisional Series. Each of their meetings has gone 7 games, The Phillies won in 7 in 2020, the Dodgers in 7 in 2028 and the Phillies in 2029 in 7. This year's meeting should feature a lot of runs and has a chance to go 7 again. The Phillies and Dodgers feature the top two lineups by wOBA and runs scored. The Phillies had some trouble early in the season but once their lineup got in gear they easily cruised past the Mets for their 3rd straight NL East title. The Dodgers took the division down to the final weekend sweeping the Giants to set up their annual meeting with the Phillies.
Lineups
Phillies:
The best lineup in PBA history? The Phillies scored 998 runs and set a new PBA record for team batter WAR at a mark of 42.2 (surpassing the previous record holders the 2029 Brewers). They had an obscene 131 wRC+ as a team slashing .284/.358/.503. Both of the top 2 players by EBH in the PBA played for the Phillies. The top 3 players in wOBA in the PBA all played for the Phillies. Three of the top 5 players by slugging percentage in the PBA played for the Phillies. 5 of the top 20 hitters in the PBA by OSA play for the Phillies. They pheasted using a combination of their immense talent, lower mound, and Citizens Bank Park (over a 1.2 HR factor). It's the type of lineup that really can't be totally shut down by any pitching staff. A key piece in the Phillies lineup's transformation from awesome to juggernaut was the addition of Royce Lewis. Curiously let go from the Padres without receiving a QO, Lewis had a career year and provided the Phillies with a true franchise SS, the one main piece the club had been missing. He led the league in steals and sac flies and hit to a 130 wRC+. Seth Beer had a career year at the plate age of 33 putting up numbers comparable to his heyday of 2022 and 2023. He led the PBA in average, OBP, slugging, and wRC+ (198!). Bobby Siegel slugged 61 homers and led the NL in extra base hits and total bases. Allen Whitmore didn't lead the league in anything but he still had 6 WAR and was 2nd in all of the PBA in wOBA. While these four led the way the Phillies also got outstanding years from FA addition Luis Robert (156 wRC+), and waiver claim C Yeison Ceballo (117 wRC+). Second year player Charles Galimberti also provided stability at 2nd base and steady OBP at the top of the lineup.
Dodgers:
While no one was on the Phillies level as a lineuo this season the Dodgers came the closest. Their .344 wOBA was 2nd in the PBA as a team to the Phillies .367 mark. The Dodgers were especially lethal vs LHP, hitting .330/.390/.528, mostly due to Jadon Ancrum and Patrick Leonard. Ancrum rebounded from a bad year with the Giants to lead the PBA in hits with 202. The LA native probably was never comfortable in a Giants uniform. For the first time in his year he was a positive fielder and combined with 36 homers and a slash line of .328/.397/.577 it mean a 7.4 WAR (a mark higher than any Phillie). The other big presence in LA was Patrick Leonard. Playing for the other team in the Freeway Series was a boon for his mental health and he hit 50 HR for the 4th time in his career. CFer Jeren Kendall tried to play hardball but ended up back in LA anyway. Jeren had a career year hitting to a 129 OPS+, over 30 points higher than his career average. Combined with his usual gold glove defense this gave the Dodgers a 3rd superstar to go with Ancrum and Leonard. Luis Urias was his usual self hitting .300, and despite the lack of shops in greater Los Angeles, Alex Verdugo enjoyed what is likely to be his penultimate year in LA driving in 91 runs and putting up 2.2 WAR.
Advantage: Phillies
Pitching and Defense:
Phillies:
Both teams are led by new aces. The Phillies acquired star SP Luis Detres from the Cardinals over the offseason. Detres struck out 245 hitters but only had a 4.57 ERA. Detres is a thinking man's ballplayer and one might think his ERA was so high because the Phillies defense wasn't great and the move to a hitters park hurt him. The Phillies were 11th in the NL in ZR and 11th in efficiency. Center field, 3B and C were their only positive ZR positions. At C they featured the best framer in the league in Juan Herrera. But elsewhere they were a bit of mess which may prove costly against a great hitting playoff team like LA.
The rest of the Phillies rotation also had their ERA's inflated by bad defense and their park. Only one likely playoff starter, Mat Meyers, beat his FIP. Jose Quesada threw 198.2 innings as a rookie and Doug Dombrowski also reached a career high innings as well. Of the Phillies 4 playoff starters half are lefties which could be problematic against the Dodgers.
The Phillies bullpen has a great back end L/R pair of Cole Ragans and A.J. Masucci. Both had K/9's over 12 and ERA's in the 2's, an impressive feat for any pitcher and especially for any who play half their games in Philly. The rest of the Phillies bullpen is heavily right handed. Of note are Justin Dunn, Josh Agboola and Jay Tudor. Dunn had a disastrous start to his Phillies career but has been largely excellent since July, Agboola had the best stuff out of any non backend reliever striking out over 11.6 batters per 9, and Tudor was starting for the team up until now, but has a pitch mix well suited for relieving. If this trio of right handers has a good series the Phillies will be in good shape to move on. Left handed relievers figure to be a gamble against LA.
Dodgers:
The Dodgers rotation is led by new addition Pat Cypert. The left-handed Cypert is one of the more undervalued players in the league. Since his debut in 2025 he has the lowest career ERA of any non-Brewer SP. He has the lowest ERA of any LHP since his debut as well. Yet he has somehow played for 4 teams in his six years in the league. Pat had an excellent first season for the Dodgers striking out 183 batters and running an ERA of 2.97. The University of San Francisco grad seemed ok with playing for the Dodgers. The Dodger's usual number 2 is LHP Dale Messina, also a new addition over the offseason. However a disastrous attempt at a complete game will mean Messina won't pitch until game 5 at the earliest. The Phillies are a little less otherworldly vs lefties so this could have a huge impact on the series. Thankfully for LA fans the Dodgers have one more lefty as well in Eduardo Rodriguez. E-Rod is 37 and not the pitcher he once was, but he still led the NL in BB/9 at 1.4, walking only 31 batters in 198.1 IP. He won't beat himself with free passes, important against the powerful Phillies. The Dodger's 4th SP in this series figures to be Grayson Rodriguez. G-Rod had only a 94 ERA+ and is right handed so he may have a tough time with the Phillies lineup.
The back of the Dodgers pen was led by the usual suspects. Ismael Robles had 37 saves and an ERA of 2.82, his 7th straight year of at least 30 saves. Robles missed the NLDS last year and is one of the best playoff performers the league has seen, so the Dodgers will be happy to have him back. Arturo Pedroza had his 4th straight year with an ERA under 3 and at least 80Ks. Bobby Spong had uncharacteristically high ERA as he allowed the highest HR/9 of his career. He really struggled with LH hitters. Travis Tyre didn't win double digit games again he did have the lowest ERA in the Dodgers bullpen at 2.21.
Defensively the Dodgers were average but good for the NL with a +3.1 ZR that landed them 4th overall in the circuit. Standouts were Ancrum in LF, Kendall in CF and Eric Drouet at 2B. SS and 3B were big holes for the Dodgers with a combined ZR of -19. Nick Allen and Luis Urias struggled which may be an issue against a Phillies team that puts the ball in play and an issue with a LH heavy pitching staff on the mound for LA.
Advantage: Even. The bullpens are about equal, and the Dodgers have a better defense and LH heavy staff. However lack of Messina looms large
Key Questions:
Can the Dodgers overcome the loss of Messina in the first half of the series?
The Phillies are an amazing lineup but slightly less otherworldly vs LHP, can the Dodgers LH heavy staff slow them down?
Is Jeren Kendall still going to have two functional legs after the series after tracking so many flyballs?
Will any LHP for the Phillies have an ERA under 5 for the series?
Prediction: Phillies in 7. These two teams always seem to go 7 games, but in the end the loss of Messina prevents the Dodgers from having the arms needed to slow down the Phillies offensive juggernaut.