Post by Grubs - Philly on Jul 6, 2023 12:24:41 GMT -5
Texas Rangers (97-65, AL West 1st) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (94-68, AL East 1st)
Two GMs on the make in the PBA meet in this clash of surprising divisional champs. In Texas, Dave Lowitzki engineered an incredible turnaround from last year’s 58-104 squad. In Toronto, Aaron Dunham has done some retooling of a strong Toronto team and his 16-9 September toppled a fading Orioles team from atop the AL East while also overtaking a middling Boston.
These two teams match up extremely well and it should make for an exciting series. Both score 4.9 runs a game, but while Texas torments opposing pitchers with league-leading speed, Toronto does it with league-leading longball power. The Rangers allow 4.2 runs a game and the Blue Jays allow 4.3. Again, there are some differences as Texas features a lockdown bullpen and Toronto relies more on deep performances from talented starters, but the final accounting is similar. The series starts in Texas, with Laurente Baffi hosting Danny Richardson. Neither pitcher allowed a run in his final start and both are ready to rock.
Texas pitching vs. Toronto hitting
Baffi’s 2030 started out much the same as his injury-addled career, as a dynamite start gave way to a right leg injury that shut him down into June. Since then, though, he has been solid. In fact, from mid-August through September he routinely went 7 innings and threw some of his best ball. Andre Stinson is on his third team of the season and this one seems to be a great fit. He still trots out the occasional clunker, but he’s been brilliant at times and a good presence in the clubhouse. Mike Burgener has been the workhorse of the staff and slotting him third could give the bullpen a breather before it likely has to pick up after a 5-6 inning stint from veteran lefty Darwinzon Hernandez.
At the back end, shutdown closer Dan O’Rourke has a shockingly narrow head but a skill set as wide as his sidearm delivery. His sinker-slider combo has crazy movement and is hard to hit. He’s been stingy with walks too, leading to a 0.83 WHIP. Lefties have scored just a single run against him all year. Sean Devereaux was average as a starter, but outstanding in high-leverage relief. He’s vulnerable to righties, but murder on lefties. The rest of the pen is balanced and deep enough to handle the extra load it’s been given this year. Marshall Patch and Cesar Pastrano have been terrific in heavy setup roles.
Toronto’s advantage against Texas is that the Jays have a lot of right handed batters who are hard on lefties. The team is among the PBA’s best when lining up against southpaws. Ernesto Montemayor, Rogelio Mendizabal, Vlad Jr. and returning outfielder Yoelkis Cespedes are terrors. The first three games, lefties are only slated to be a bullpen factor, but like a marauding army, once Toronto breaches the gates, they can do a lot of damage against the Texas bullpen.
The lineup is a bit mix-and-match, but it’s worked for the Blue Jays. Montemayor (Spanish for “also has a thin head”) shouldn’t be as good as he’s been and Ryan Weber’s 4 contact rating is scary…but their power is undeniable. Same goes with strong-side platoon man Cortez Castaneda. The Jays have found something that works and when OOTP says it’s effective, don’t doubt it..
Taylor Walls, Vlad Jr. and new-add Matt Aceto anchor the lineup. Aceto arrived in the offseason on an affordable long-term contract. He’s struggling with a strained quad after a monster second half. The Jays would be hard pressed to replace his performance, but with signs pointing to minimal impact, Dunham will trot him out and hope for the best.
Toronto pitching vs. Texas hitting
It’s no accident that “Blue Jays” rhymes with “new Braves.” Three key arms for Toronto’s staff are Dunham Darlings from his time with Atlanta. Marc Eberle is his typical solid self and is always capable of throwing a complete game masterpiece. In the playoffs, that’s especially valuable. Sometimes lefties can get to him, but he’s kept them at bay this year. Todd Buonadonna has settled into the closer role and enters the postseason having allowed just three earned runs in 18 appearances since the middle of August. Nate Capriglione hasn’t replicated his Atlanta success, but he’s a glue guy. Don’t be surprised if he eats bullpen innings instead of being a fifth starter. With just 12 pitchers rostered, the Jays will need someone like that.
Not one to look a gift horse in the mouth, Dunham’s held on to Toronto’s best homegrown talent, including the best 30th round pick the league’s ever seen in Game 1 starter Danny Richardson. He looks after his 2.4 pitches like 2.4 kids in the ‘50s as he favors the fastball and sinker and lets the changeup take the occasional belting. Tanh Dai has come alive in his second year and if he’s a Game 4 starter, Texas will have some work to do. That also means he could come on in relief in Game 7; a role he’s familiar with after spending most of last year in the bullpen.
Toronto’s bullpen, by the way, has been solid and Billy McKay’s return has been a breath of fresh air. The team is not especially vulnerable to handedness matchups, though lefties fare better when it comes to the home runs.
Texas has really upped its game at the plate, bringing in Doorbell Gestoso, Josh Weyer and Steve Goode. Those three pack run-scoring punch into the top of the lineup. Gestoso looks less and less like the terror he was, but he still gets on base, where he swiped 40 bags and scored 100 runs this year. Goode didn’t miss a beat after coming over from Atlanta, and his WRC+, OPS and OPS+ are all career bests. Nick Pratto (Italian for Paul Goldschmidt) has been his usual terrific self. Lambert Swinkels has been a revelation in left field and his performance is a big reason Texas was able to turn it around so quickly. (39 wins more than last year!). Lowitzki’s aware that there’s a bit of a cliff at the back end of the lineup and adjusts it accordingly.
The Rangers steal a ton, with Luis V. Garcia and Freudis Nova providing extra value that way. Six other guys have at least 10 steals, though Nick Pratto should probably be staying put.
Texas has the PBA’s fourth-best OPS against righties, but has big problems against lefties, sporting a mirror image fourth-worst OPS against them. Toronto has just two lefties in the bullpen and none in the starting rotation…something that will be important to watch in the series.
Fielding
Toronto has been open about leaning on offense. The team isn’t flashy anywhere, though it’s generally solid on the infield corners. Aceto’s an asset only in right field, but he’s a detriment only at third. The outfield will give up some gappers.
The team has just one of seven Rule V picks still on the squad, despite hopes for more meaningful contributions. That player, third baseman Alfredo Cruz, had an underwhelming year and looks more of an investment than a key cog, but he’s the best defensive option at third.
Dunham says that while Mendizabal will catch tricky knuckler Marc Eberle, Luis Mosso’s framing ability and terrific performance with the Jays staff will have him
Texas is much better, with Luis V. Garcia and potential Gold Glover Freudis Nova making a potent double play combo. The outfield is solid everywhere but left, where the big bat of Lambert Swinkels is the price to be paid for bad defense. With Josh Weyer firmly ensconced at DH and Nick Pratto at first, Lowitzki’s hands are tied unless there’s a late-inning defensive substitution.
On the corners, Pratto and Doorbell are adequate, if not spectacular.
At catcher, newcomer Juan Hinojosa and legacy stud Francisco Mejia both call a good game. They can’t frame to save their lives, though, so the Texas staff will have to hit their marks.
Questions
Can Toronto tamp down the Rangers on the basepaths? They’ll need to replicate their regular season success in keeping guys off base.
Will Texas’ big hitters deliver? If the top of the lineup goes soft, there’s not much value to the stolen bases the bottom of the lineup can provide.
Can the Rangers bullpen stave off the attack of the lefties for Toronto? Texas runs deep with its relief arms, but lefties are a weakness.
Prediction
I hate to make one here, because it’s easy to see this series going either way, but I say the Texas bullpen and Toronto’s lack of left-handed pitching wins the series for the Rangers, 4-3.
Two GMs on the make in the PBA meet in this clash of surprising divisional champs. In Texas, Dave Lowitzki engineered an incredible turnaround from last year’s 58-104 squad. In Toronto, Aaron Dunham has done some retooling of a strong Toronto team and his 16-9 September toppled a fading Orioles team from atop the AL East while also overtaking a middling Boston.
These two teams match up extremely well and it should make for an exciting series. Both score 4.9 runs a game, but while Texas torments opposing pitchers with league-leading speed, Toronto does it with league-leading longball power. The Rangers allow 4.2 runs a game and the Blue Jays allow 4.3. Again, there are some differences as Texas features a lockdown bullpen and Toronto relies more on deep performances from talented starters, but the final accounting is similar. The series starts in Texas, with Laurente Baffi hosting Danny Richardson. Neither pitcher allowed a run in his final start and both are ready to rock.
Texas pitching vs. Toronto hitting
Baffi’s 2030 started out much the same as his injury-addled career, as a dynamite start gave way to a right leg injury that shut him down into June. Since then, though, he has been solid. In fact, from mid-August through September he routinely went 7 innings and threw some of his best ball. Andre Stinson is on his third team of the season and this one seems to be a great fit. He still trots out the occasional clunker, but he’s been brilliant at times and a good presence in the clubhouse. Mike Burgener has been the workhorse of the staff and slotting him third could give the bullpen a breather before it likely has to pick up after a 5-6 inning stint from veteran lefty Darwinzon Hernandez.
At the back end, shutdown closer Dan O’Rourke has a shockingly narrow head but a skill set as wide as his sidearm delivery. His sinker-slider combo has crazy movement and is hard to hit. He’s been stingy with walks too, leading to a 0.83 WHIP. Lefties have scored just a single run against him all year. Sean Devereaux was average as a starter, but outstanding in high-leverage relief. He’s vulnerable to righties, but murder on lefties. The rest of the pen is balanced and deep enough to handle the extra load it’s been given this year. Marshall Patch and Cesar Pastrano have been terrific in heavy setup roles.
Toronto’s advantage against Texas is that the Jays have a lot of right handed batters who are hard on lefties. The team is among the PBA’s best when lining up against southpaws. Ernesto Montemayor, Rogelio Mendizabal, Vlad Jr. and returning outfielder Yoelkis Cespedes are terrors. The first three games, lefties are only slated to be a bullpen factor, but like a marauding army, once Toronto breaches the gates, they can do a lot of damage against the Texas bullpen.
The lineup is a bit mix-and-match, but it’s worked for the Blue Jays. Montemayor (Spanish for “also has a thin head”) shouldn’t be as good as he’s been and Ryan Weber’s 4 contact rating is scary…but their power is undeniable. Same goes with strong-side platoon man Cortez Castaneda. The Jays have found something that works and when OOTP says it’s effective, don’t doubt it..
Taylor Walls, Vlad Jr. and new-add Matt Aceto anchor the lineup. Aceto arrived in the offseason on an affordable long-term contract. He’s struggling with a strained quad after a monster second half. The Jays would be hard pressed to replace his performance, but with signs pointing to minimal impact, Dunham will trot him out and hope for the best.
Toronto pitching vs. Texas hitting
It’s no accident that “Blue Jays” rhymes with “new Braves.” Three key arms for Toronto’s staff are Dunham Darlings from his time with Atlanta. Marc Eberle is his typical solid self and is always capable of throwing a complete game masterpiece. In the playoffs, that’s especially valuable. Sometimes lefties can get to him, but he’s kept them at bay this year. Todd Buonadonna has settled into the closer role and enters the postseason having allowed just three earned runs in 18 appearances since the middle of August. Nate Capriglione hasn’t replicated his Atlanta success, but he’s a glue guy. Don’t be surprised if he eats bullpen innings instead of being a fifth starter. With just 12 pitchers rostered, the Jays will need someone like that.
Not one to look a gift horse in the mouth, Dunham’s held on to Toronto’s best homegrown talent, including the best 30th round pick the league’s ever seen in Game 1 starter Danny Richardson. He looks after his 2.4 pitches like 2.4 kids in the ‘50s as he favors the fastball and sinker and lets the changeup take the occasional belting. Tanh Dai has come alive in his second year and if he’s a Game 4 starter, Texas will have some work to do. That also means he could come on in relief in Game 7; a role he’s familiar with after spending most of last year in the bullpen.
Toronto’s bullpen, by the way, has been solid and Billy McKay’s return has been a breath of fresh air. The team is not especially vulnerable to handedness matchups, though lefties fare better when it comes to the home runs.
Texas has really upped its game at the plate, bringing in Doorbell Gestoso, Josh Weyer and Steve Goode. Those three pack run-scoring punch into the top of the lineup. Gestoso looks less and less like the terror he was, but he still gets on base, where he swiped 40 bags and scored 100 runs this year. Goode didn’t miss a beat after coming over from Atlanta, and his WRC+, OPS and OPS+ are all career bests. Nick Pratto (Italian for Paul Goldschmidt) has been his usual terrific self. Lambert Swinkels has been a revelation in left field and his performance is a big reason Texas was able to turn it around so quickly. (39 wins more than last year!). Lowitzki’s aware that there’s a bit of a cliff at the back end of the lineup and adjusts it accordingly.
The Rangers steal a ton, with Luis V. Garcia and Freudis Nova providing extra value that way. Six other guys have at least 10 steals, though Nick Pratto should probably be staying put.
Texas has the PBA’s fourth-best OPS against righties, but has big problems against lefties, sporting a mirror image fourth-worst OPS against them. Toronto has just two lefties in the bullpen and none in the starting rotation…something that will be important to watch in the series.
Fielding
Toronto has been open about leaning on offense. The team isn’t flashy anywhere, though it’s generally solid on the infield corners. Aceto’s an asset only in right field, but he’s a detriment only at third. The outfield will give up some gappers.
The team has just one of seven Rule V picks still on the squad, despite hopes for more meaningful contributions. That player, third baseman Alfredo Cruz, had an underwhelming year and looks more of an investment than a key cog, but he’s the best defensive option at third.
Dunham says that while Mendizabal will catch tricky knuckler Marc Eberle, Luis Mosso’s framing ability and terrific performance with the Jays staff will have him
Texas is much better, with Luis V. Garcia and potential Gold Glover Freudis Nova making a potent double play combo. The outfield is solid everywhere but left, where the big bat of Lambert Swinkels is the price to be paid for bad defense. With Josh Weyer firmly ensconced at DH and Nick Pratto at first, Lowitzki’s hands are tied unless there’s a late-inning defensive substitution.
On the corners, Pratto and Doorbell are adequate, if not spectacular.
At catcher, newcomer Juan Hinojosa and legacy stud Francisco Mejia both call a good game. They can’t frame to save their lives, though, so the Texas staff will have to hit their marks.
Questions
Can Toronto tamp down the Rangers on the basepaths? They’ll need to replicate their regular season success in keeping guys off base.
Will Texas’ big hitters deliver? If the top of the lineup goes soft, there’s not much value to the stolen bases the bottom of the lineup can provide.
Can the Rangers bullpen stave off the attack of the lefties for Toronto? Texas runs deep with its relief arms, but lefties are a weakness.
Prediction
I hate to make one here, because it’s easy to see this series going either way, but I say the Texas bullpen and Toronto’s lack of left-handed pitching wins the series for the Rangers, 4-3.
