Post by Commissioner Erick on Jul 9, 2023 11:20:28 GMT -5
Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals
The 2030 NLCS will be about a traditional power taking on an upstart. The Los Angeles Dodgers have made the playoffs in 12 of their 14 years. They’ve won three titles, advanced to a fourth World Series, and made the NLCS six times in their history. It’s basically a coin flip every year whether or not you’ll see them in the NLCS.
Nobody has seen the Cardinals in the NLCS. Their comeback win over the Giants in the Wild Card Game was their first ever playoff win. It led to their first ever trip to the NLDS, and their sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers there has led them to their first ever NLCS.
Will tradition continue its hold, resulting in the Dodgers making it to the World Series for the third time in six years, or will St. Louis continue to make history and punch through to the World Series for the first time. In roughly a week, we’ll have our answer.
Dodgers Offense versus Cardinals Pitching
St. Louis proved that its regular season pitching dominance wasn’t a playoff fluke, throttling the Brewers in the LDS and allowing just 10 runs over 4 games. Four pitchers went at least three innings without allowing a run as the team allowed the Brewers to hit for a .489 OPS.
St. Louis has the arms to dominate teams that try to win by platoon advantages, but they may be vulnerable to sheer, raw, talent. San Francisco scored seven runs in the Wild Card Game, scoring against four of St. Louis’ six arms that day.
The Dodgers are a team with an elite offense, second in the NL in runs this year, and they’re a team that doesn’t platoon heavily: Jorge Ramos plays against righties, and boosts LA’s defense, and Wuilmer Becerra hits against lefties, moving Salesman, Jadon Ancrum, to the outfield. However, just because the Dodgers don’t platoon heavily and don’t pinch hit much—49 pinch hit plate appearances is tied for last in the NL—doesn’t man that they’re balanced.
The Dodgers had a solid .763 OPS against righties this year, and a spectacular .917 mark against lefties. That mark is unsurprising given that their best bats all bat from the right side. Salesman hit .328 with 36 homers and 105 RBIs this year, while Patrick Leonard smashed 50 homers, drove in 138, and hit .291. Luis Urias hit .306 with 39 doubles atop the lineup, pacing the sluggers.
The left-handed bats don’t hit those elite heights. Alex Verdugo was more solid than special, with 19 homers and a .337 on-base percentage. He’s also fallen apart in the playoffs, hitting .077 in the NLDS with the step up in competition. Hyo-sang Choo had a nice .284 average and walks a ton, but he also hit only three homers. He also struggled in the NLDS, batting .100. Jeren Kendall hits the ball hard when he makes contact, and he walks a bunch as well, but strikeouts lead to a low average. Like the rest of the Dodgers’ lefties, he too didn’t show up for the NLDS, hitting for a .507 OPS.
Another concern is the makeup of the Dodgers’ hitters. Milwaukee gradually turned itself into a patient, powerful team that relied on walks and homers more than BABIP. As a result, Milwaukee was second to last in the NL in BABIP. With St. Louis throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the park, they suffocated the Brewers.
LA’s right-handers are aggressive. They don’t walk too often, they don’t strike out much, and they rely on base hits keeping the chain moving. The Dodgers’ lefties are patient. They work deep counts and look to control the zone and capitalize on mistakes. That approach may struggle against St. Louis.
The Dodgers don’t look at stolen bases as a huge part of their game, but they do have some speed, and Eric Walker does have trouble throwing out runners. Rattlesnake Drouet stole 21 bags this year in 25 attempts, while Nick Allen and Jeren Kendall had double digit steals as well.
Los Angeles also had the second best baserunning in the league behind Colorado. Alan Mitchell in Center Field had a plus zone rating and a strong arm rating, but no other Cardinal outfielder had both stats in the possible. The Dodgers may be able to take extra bases on hits to right and left.
Cardinals Hitting vs Dodgers Pitching
As much attention as St. Louis’ pitching has gotten this postseason—the Cardinals have faced an elite assemblage of arms and scored plenty of runs so far in the playoffs.
Among regulars, only Ronny Mauricio, Bob Beasley and Joe Mills have an OPS under .921. The ferocity of St. Louis offense has turned the heads of contemporary scholars—most Audubon Society members will now note that Cardinals get their beautiful red plumage from their savage beatings applied to opposing pitching staffs.
Even among the noted trio, Mauricio is a special defender and has held his own with three walks and a triple, while Mills has driven in six, going 3-8 with runners in scoring position. The Dodgers have good arms, but the Giants also had good arms, and Milwaukee had historic arms. Now their footnotes as part of a Cardinal’s diet.
The Dodgers do have something the Giants and Brewers didn’t have though—good left-handed starters. Pat Cypert has been dominant in his postseason career, and Daddy Long Legs went 7 shutout in April in his only start against the Cardinals this year. He continues to excel at limiting homers. Dale Messina is coming into his own as a young ace, and should have shaken off the rust off the rust from late season elbow inflammation. Joey Wentz had a good series against the Phillies as well, though he was lit up by the Cards in the regular season and has an erratic playoff history. The Dodgers starting righty, Grayson Rodriguez, had a strong series against the Phillies and decent success in two starts against St. Louis over the year.
However, St. Louis is a heavily right-handed team. The Cardinals have faced one lefty this postseason, Joe Dyck, and they tortured him with three homers and a double in 13 at bats.
In fact, Milwaukee’s starting pitching was good against the Cardinals in that they held St. Louis to a sub-.200 average. Some home runs fueled St. Louis success, before the Cards destroyed Dyck and the Brewers’ pen.
The Dodgers bullpen is mostly right-handed and it’s been excellent this postseason. Right-handed short relievers Edgar E. Garcia, Steve Stapleton, and Osiris Ramirez combined to go 2.2 scoreless innings, while Bobby Spong has a 1.80 ERA and 10 strikeouts over 5 innings. Closer Penguin Robles allowed an unfortunate homer to Royce Lewis in Game 1 of the NLDS, but he saved his other three opportunities, didn’t allow a run his other outings, and has eight strikeouts over 5 frames.
The quartet of Robles, Spong, Ramirez, and Garcia also have exceptional career strikeout numbers. Each has over a 32% strikeout rate, with Penguin posting a 41% career strikeout rate, first all time. Those four may be able to turn in big series against a Cardinals team only average in strikeout rate.
The Dodgers tend to mix and match with their pen a lot, but that may not be the best approach today. With few pure lefties in St. Louis lineup, the Dodgers may want their righties on the hill as much as possible.
The Dodgers have outstanding outfield defense and porous infield defense. They’ll lose the BABIP game against teams that hit the ball on the ground, but the Cardinals had the highest percentage of fly outs versus ground ball outs in the league, which plays well for the Dodgers’ defense.
Season Series
The two teams split the season series, with the Cardinals getting swept at home during their horrendous early season start, before sweeping the Dodgers in Los Angeles in early August.
Daddy Long Legs went 7 shutout to lead the Dodgers to a commanding 5-0 win in St. Louis on August 8, before winning 7-4 in the middle game, with six runs coming against pitchers no longer on the Cardinals roster. The Dodgers got two runs in the seventh inning of the finale to sweep the series, with Brusdar Graterol allowing three singles a walk, and a sac fly, to bring in the runs, and the Dodgers getting 4 shutout from the pen to finish the job.
In Los Angeles, the Cardinals held the Dodgers to three hits and Darrick Hall walked off Penguin Robles with a homer to win a well-pitched, 3-2 affair. They got four hits from Calvin Mitchell and a grand slam off Joey Wentz to win the middle game 9-4. They broke open a 2-2, eighth inning game in the finale with Eduardo Rodriguez staying on far too long and serving up a homer to Joe Mills to give the Cardinals the lead. The left-handed part of their lineup expanded the lead against Garcia and they won 7-3.
Deciding Questions
Can the Cardinals righties sufficiently beat up the Dodgers’ left-handed starters, or will Los Angeles keep things close for their bullpen?
Will the Dodgers’ left-handed hitters be able to produce, or will the Cardinals consistently have the upper hand with right-handed arms against the Dodgers’ best hitters?
XFIP. Will St. Louis get enough of their fly balls over the fence, or will they die in Jeren Kendall’s glove?
Prediction: The Dodgers have some key strengths, and also big weaknesses against the Cardinals. In the end, the left-handed bats likely won’t provide enough support for Salesman and Leonard, and the left-handed starters may succumb to St. Louis’ right-handed heavy approach. Cardinals 4-2.
The 2030 NLCS will be about a traditional power taking on an upstart. The Los Angeles Dodgers have made the playoffs in 12 of their 14 years. They’ve won three titles, advanced to a fourth World Series, and made the NLCS six times in their history. It’s basically a coin flip every year whether or not you’ll see them in the NLCS.
Nobody has seen the Cardinals in the NLCS. Their comeback win over the Giants in the Wild Card Game was their first ever playoff win. It led to their first ever trip to the NLDS, and their sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers there has led them to their first ever NLCS.
Will tradition continue its hold, resulting in the Dodgers making it to the World Series for the third time in six years, or will St. Louis continue to make history and punch through to the World Series for the first time. In roughly a week, we’ll have our answer.
Dodgers Offense versus Cardinals Pitching
St. Louis proved that its regular season pitching dominance wasn’t a playoff fluke, throttling the Brewers in the LDS and allowing just 10 runs over 4 games. Four pitchers went at least three innings without allowing a run as the team allowed the Brewers to hit for a .489 OPS.
St. Louis has the arms to dominate teams that try to win by platoon advantages, but they may be vulnerable to sheer, raw, talent. San Francisco scored seven runs in the Wild Card Game, scoring against four of St. Louis’ six arms that day.
The Dodgers are a team with an elite offense, second in the NL in runs this year, and they’re a team that doesn’t platoon heavily: Jorge Ramos plays against righties, and boosts LA’s defense, and Wuilmer Becerra hits against lefties, moving Salesman, Jadon Ancrum, to the outfield. However, just because the Dodgers don’t platoon heavily and don’t pinch hit much—49 pinch hit plate appearances is tied for last in the NL—doesn’t man that they’re balanced.
The Dodgers had a solid .763 OPS against righties this year, and a spectacular .917 mark against lefties. That mark is unsurprising given that their best bats all bat from the right side. Salesman hit .328 with 36 homers and 105 RBIs this year, while Patrick Leonard smashed 50 homers, drove in 138, and hit .291. Luis Urias hit .306 with 39 doubles atop the lineup, pacing the sluggers.
The left-handed bats don’t hit those elite heights. Alex Verdugo was more solid than special, with 19 homers and a .337 on-base percentage. He’s also fallen apart in the playoffs, hitting .077 in the NLDS with the step up in competition. Hyo-sang Choo had a nice .284 average and walks a ton, but he also hit only three homers. He also struggled in the NLDS, batting .100. Jeren Kendall hits the ball hard when he makes contact, and he walks a bunch as well, but strikeouts lead to a low average. Like the rest of the Dodgers’ lefties, he too didn’t show up for the NLDS, hitting for a .507 OPS.
Another concern is the makeup of the Dodgers’ hitters. Milwaukee gradually turned itself into a patient, powerful team that relied on walks and homers more than BABIP. As a result, Milwaukee was second to last in the NL in BABIP. With St. Louis throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the park, they suffocated the Brewers.
LA’s right-handers are aggressive. They don’t walk too often, they don’t strike out much, and they rely on base hits keeping the chain moving. The Dodgers’ lefties are patient. They work deep counts and look to control the zone and capitalize on mistakes. That approach may struggle against St. Louis.
The Dodgers don’t look at stolen bases as a huge part of their game, but they do have some speed, and Eric Walker does have trouble throwing out runners. Rattlesnake Drouet stole 21 bags this year in 25 attempts, while Nick Allen and Jeren Kendall had double digit steals as well.
Los Angeles also had the second best baserunning in the league behind Colorado. Alan Mitchell in Center Field had a plus zone rating and a strong arm rating, but no other Cardinal outfielder had both stats in the possible. The Dodgers may be able to take extra bases on hits to right and left.
Cardinals Hitting vs Dodgers Pitching
As much attention as St. Louis’ pitching has gotten this postseason—the Cardinals have faced an elite assemblage of arms and scored plenty of runs so far in the playoffs.
Among regulars, only Ronny Mauricio, Bob Beasley and Joe Mills have an OPS under .921. The ferocity of St. Louis offense has turned the heads of contemporary scholars—most Audubon Society members will now note that Cardinals get their beautiful red plumage from their savage beatings applied to opposing pitching staffs.
Even among the noted trio, Mauricio is a special defender and has held his own with three walks and a triple, while Mills has driven in six, going 3-8 with runners in scoring position. The Dodgers have good arms, but the Giants also had good arms, and Milwaukee had historic arms. Now their footnotes as part of a Cardinal’s diet.
The Dodgers do have something the Giants and Brewers didn’t have though—good left-handed starters. Pat Cypert has been dominant in his postseason career, and Daddy Long Legs went 7 shutout in April in his only start against the Cardinals this year. He continues to excel at limiting homers. Dale Messina is coming into his own as a young ace, and should have shaken off the rust off the rust from late season elbow inflammation. Joey Wentz had a good series against the Phillies as well, though he was lit up by the Cards in the regular season and has an erratic playoff history. The Dodgers starting righty, Grayson Rodriguez, had a strong series against the Phillies and decent success in two starts against St. Louis over the year.
However, St. Louis is a heavily right-handed team. The Cardinals have faced one lefty this postseason, Joe Dyck, and they tortured him with three homers and a double in 13 at bats.
In fact, Milwaukee’s starting pitching was good against the Cardinals in that they held St. Louis to a sub-.200 average. Some home runs fueled St. Louis success, before the Cards destroyed Dyck and the Brewers’ pen.
The Dodgers bullpen is mostly right-handed and it’s been excellent this postseason. Right-handed short relievers Edgar E. Garcia, Steve Stapleton, and Osiris Ramirez combined to go 2.2 scoreless innings, while Bobby Spong has a 1.80 ERA and 10 strikeouts over 5 innings. Closer Penguin Robles allowed an unfortunate homer to Royce Lewis in Game 1 of the NLDS, but he saved his other three opportunities, didn’t allow a run his other outings, and has eight strikeouts over 5 frames.
The quartet of Robles, Spong, Ramirez, and Garcia also have exceptional career strikeout numbers. Each has over a 32% strikeout rate, with Penguin posting a 41% career strikeout rate, first all time. Those four may be able to turn in big series against a Cardinals team only average in strikeout rate.
The Dodgers tend to mix and match with their pen a lot, but that may not be the best approach today. With few pure lefties in St. Louis lineup, the Dodgers may want their righties on the hill as much as possible.
The Dodgers have outstanding outfield defense and porous infield defense. They’ll lose the BABIP game against teams that hit the ball on the ground, but the Cardinals had the highest percentage of fly outs versus ground ball outs in the league, which plays well for the Dodgers’ defense.
Season Series
The two teams split the season series, with the Cardinals getting swept at home during their horrendous early season start, before sweeping the Dodgers in Los Angeles in early August.
Daddy Long Legs went 7 shutout to lead the Dodgers to a commanding 5-0 win in St. Louis on August 8, before winning 7-4 in the middle game, with six runs coming against pitchers no longer on the Cardinals roster. The Dodgers got two runs in the seventh inning of the finale to sweep the series, with Brusdar Graterol allowing three singles a walk, and a sac fly, to bring in the runs, and the Dodgers getting 4 shutout from the pen to finish the job.
In Los Angeles, the Cardinals held the Dodgers to three hits and Darrick Hall walked off Penguin Robles with a homer to win a well-pitched, 3-2 affair. They got four hits from Calvin Mitchell and a grand slam off Joey Wentz to win the middle game 9-4. They broke open a 2-2, eighth inning game in the finale with Eduardo Rodriguez staying on far too long and serving up a homer to Joe Mills to give the Cardinals the lead. The left-handed part of their lineup expanded the lead against Garcia and they won 7-3.
Deciding Questions
Can the Cardinals righties sufficiently beat up the Dodgers’ left-handed starters, or will Los Angeles keep things close for their bullpen?
Will the Dodgers’ left-handed hitters be able to produce, or will the Cardinals consistently have the upper hand with right-handed arms against the Dodgers’ best hitters?
XFIP. Will St. Louis get enough of their fly balls over the fence, or will they die in Jeren Kendall’s glove?
Prediction: The Dodgers have some key strengths, and also big weaknesses against the Cardinals. In the end, the left-handed bats likely won’t provide enough support for Salesman and Leonard, and the left-handed starters may succumb to St. Louis’ right-handed heavy approach. Cardinals 4-2.